"Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?" Topic

The narrative of Russia's ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact.

Defense One: link

Wishful thinking, I'm afraid.
What, or who comes after him?

Russia is now simply preoccupied with events in Ukraine and has relied on Iran in this matter. Iran has behaved strangely…

Solid NO! There are far greater defeats yet to come.

This Obama-Soros strategy of collapsing nation states isn't working out so well for the world…

Solid NO! There are far greater defeats yet to come.

Let's hope so … The current USA/NATO's enemies list is all the usual suspects – Russia, China, Iran & North Korea … Guess there should be no surprise.

This Obama-Soros strategy of collapsing nation states isn't working out so well for the world…

Well two names that historians will have varying opinions on. Not really a fan of either, but the second name is particularly unsavory to me. Both he and his son …

Its always difficult to predict the future. People have been saying Putin will lose soon for a long time, and he is still there. The withdrawal of Russians from Syria is neither here or there. It just shows they didn't think it expedient to fight there as well as Ukraine.
I just hope Putin loses sometime, and Ukraine gets its land back. Well, I can hope!!!

Despite the change in geopolitics, I don't see it as Putin's downfall.

The big loser here is Hezbollah. Iran used Damascus airport as a staging area for Revolutionary Guard advisors, arms shipments, etc., so getting these things to them, much like to Hamas in Gaza, is going to take much, much more effort.

Iraq will definitely suffer, since the destabilization of Syria will lead to destabilization in this weak country. Also, without a doubt, Turkey will try to take away the Syrian oil regions from the Kurds. Which, by the way, could lead to clashes between the US and Turkey. And it will definitely try to raise the head of ISIS, intercepting the initiative. In addition, Hamas is Sunni, and will definitely receive support from the new authorities in Syria.

For Russia, this will cause problems in Central Asia and the Caucasus, where the influence of radical Islam will increase, and civil conflicts against secular governments may resume there. Let's not forget that a significant portion of the Syrian "fighters against the regime" are from former Soviet territories, forced out of these territories during various military actions.

Nuclear watchdog chief Grossi warns of possible looting at Al Hadjar nuclear research centre in Syria

Terrorists with nuclear materials. What could possibly go wrong?

Will Assad's defeat be Putin's Waterloo?
More like a Stalingrad moment. Only this time it is the Russians losing!

No. As in most autocracies, only the economy ultimately represents existential risk.

JMcCarroll, what military losses did the Russians suffer in Syria? No… Just the arrangement of the pieces on the board has changed. We will finish in Ukraine and then take up this region again.

Let me add:

Bloomberg reports that Russia and the new rulers of Syria are close to concluding an agreement on the maintenance of the Russian Air and Naval Bases in Khmeimim and Tartus.

Maybe not his Waterloo, but as they used to say of the Romanovs, "Russia is autocracy mitigated by regicide." A sufficient level of apprehension about the future on the part of the men around you can lead to all kinds of unpleasant consequences- the July 20 attempt on Hitler, for example, or Stalin's death, which is still debated by historians (did Beria do it, or did the Politburo silently and mutually agree to simply not help him in extremis, in the interest of avoiding the fate he obviously had planned for them). It does have to end like Paul I, with a room full of angry, drunk generals: it could easily be a medical event, somber music on the radio, TV eulogies, a state funeral, and then…..whatever comes next.

But why not kill him with a shot from a pimply youth from some rooftop during a public speech, while the entire security service simultaneously turned away?))) Or are these other traditions?

Probably because that doesn't work.

Look, be as snarky as you want- but please don't try and offer up ridiculous counterexamples to try to justify the brutal history of your semi-civilized country. We've all read enough history to spot it for the nonsense it is.

You just don't know the history of your own countries well)))

Turkish President Erdogan, in a speech in Sakarya in front of his party colleagues, promised to review the results of the First World War and annex the Syrian territories (former Ottoman provinces) to Turkey:

I wonder what would have happened if conditions had been different when the First World War redefined the borders in our region?

The cities we call Aleppo, Idlib, Damascus and Raqqa will become our provinces, like Antep, Hatay and Urfa!

You can be happy – NATO is expanding again)))

I know it, with all its warts, a damned sight better than you do, and I know your own as well – certainly well enough to know that there are no American equivalents of Lavrenti Pavlovich Beria (and no, I don't care that he was a Georgian) or Vasili Blokhin. There are a couple of others I could name as well- but let's face it: you wouldn't even be a nuclear power if you hadn't stolen the secrets.

No, Ukraine stalemate will be a Putin downfall. I rad a recent article which stated that so much of the Russian economy is tied to the Ukrainian war. That any type of peace may crash the economy.

Russia still hanging on in Syria … but for how long ?

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EU talking to Syria's new leaders …

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You can be happy – NATO is expanding again

Where ? The Turks are in Syria but I don't think it is under NATO. The US is in Syria to keep ISIS from reconstituting and trying to release all the ISIS prisoners that the US and Kurds are guarding. No one knows what to do with these thousands of ISIS men, women and children. Both ISIS men and women are radicalized, and they are training the next generation of ISIS terrorists/butchers.

And with the Putin's war in Ukraine, Sweden and Finland joined NATO of their own accord. For concern over Putin expanding Russia's borders. To bring back the old Russian Imperial empire. After Ukraine, they may be on Putin's list. Whether they were in Imperial Russia or not.

Anyone ever wonder why so many former Warsaw Pact joined NATO as soon as they could ? Pretty sure they didn't like and want to be under Russian boots anymore.

Syria After Assad

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Armand

Something else to add to this conflict is how this could affect Putin's war of aggression in Ukraine.

The Turks don't want to see Putin win in Ukraine any more than others in and other than NATO. The Turks like their enclave in Syria. For a number of reasons.

Putin still holds a port and some airfields in Syria. May be those could be used a bargaining chip in Ukraine. I'm sure the new POTUS has or will consider this.

E.g. Putin wants to keep parts of Ukraine, but at the cost of his bases in Syria. Or leave all of occupied Ukraine and keep their bases in Syria.

Legion we were watching the same show this morning. 😉

Probably, I think I was watching FOX or NEWSMAX.

It was Fox morning news.

Yeah … I think so … Good report/interview … I look forward to seeing if this deal is proposed and if so, how effective.