CFeicht | 07 Dec 2024 4:28 p.m. PST |
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Editor in Chief Bill  | 07 Dec 2024 4:52 p.m. PST |
Looks like the party is over. |
CFeicht | 07 Dec 2024 5:13 p.m. PST |
YEs. I saw that a large number of senior officials and generals are planning to announce their defections soon. |
35thOVI  | 07 Dec 2024 5:20 p.m. PST |
Well if they are heading for the US border, they better get here before January. 😂🤣 |
Dragon Gunner | 07 Dec 2024 6:22 p.m. PST |
YouTube link What I imagine the Russian and Iranian personnel are doing right now… |
aegiscg47  | 07 Dec 2024 6:44 p.m. PST |
Syrian TV was still on the air a few minutes ago, but I've seen video footage of passengers fleeing through the Damascus Airport as the rebels moved in, plus there's rumors that the Syrian TV station might be occupied any minute. It also looks like Russia might be abandoning their base at Tartus or at least moving all the ships out. Things are really moving fast. |
Prince Alberts Revenge | 07 Dec 2024 7:55 p.m. PST |
All kinds of rumors right now but it seems government military leaders handed Damascus over to the rebels. State TV was taken, Assad is reported to have fled…may have left on a private jet to UAE or on an Il-76 that may have crashed (it disappeared on flight tracker). There were even reports that Assad attempted to reach out to the US and also Trump (via Orban) asking for Western intervention or safe passage in exchange for cessation of safe harbor for Hezbollah and Iranian proxies. Lots of rumors. I pray for the Syria people regardless. |
Dn Jackson  | 08 Dec 2024 1:36 a.m. PST |
I wonder if anyone in Teran is thinking, "Maybe starting that war with Israel wasn't a good idea." |
nickinsomerset | 08 Dec 2024 3:15 a.m. PST |
The russians are running away having invested billions and thousands of lives, what a shame! It will now be interesting to see if Syria descends into another Libya or a central power maintains control, leading to how much radical islam will influence them. On the good side a chance for a Kurdish homeland, Tally Ho! |
martin goddard  | 08 Dec 2024 3:35 a.m. PST |
I await the posts about "I knew this was coming" 5,4,3,2,1…. I just forget to post about it. martin
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Griefbringer | 08 Dec 2024 4:17 a.m. PST |
I await the posts about "I knew this was coming" Don't count me in, I was genuinely surprised by the events of the last couple of days. I was not aware that the Syrian military (forced to fight on their own) was in such a bad shape. Once again, shows how important the will to fight is, even in a modern battlefield. |
doubleones | 08 Dec 2024 4:21 a.m. PST |
I hope the Syrian people are blessed with rational sane leadership after this momentous change. I understand that's a huge ask but one can hope, right? |
Griefbringer | 08 Dec 2024 5:56 a.m. PST |
I presume that most of the Syrian people would also appreciate such leadership and stability. That said, in the past the various Syrian anti-governmental forces have had their differences – setting those aside and agreeing to put together a new central government requires certain willingness to compromise. That said, after more than a decade of civil war, perhaps the will can be found. Never mind that economically the country is rather devastated and requires a lot of re-building. Then there are certain foreign powers that perhaps would not mind to see the country falling into a state of instability. |
Nine pound round | 08 Dec 2024 6:14 a.m. PST |
Now we'll see whether the ICC prosecutors are as eager to pursue Assad as they were Netanyahu. |
McKinstry  | 08 Dec 2024 8:25 a.m. PST |
Assad finally going and the Iranians and Russians losing both bases and reputation is nice but the jury is way out on HTS. I should not have been surprised by this but I was. It is pretty standard it seems that when an unpopular side in a civil war loses the backing of powerful allies, the collapse always seems to happen fast. |
35thOVI  | 08 Dec 2024 8:35 a.m. PST |
One had to ask: How much better off would we be today, if Britain and France had never implemented the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement? |
Red Jacket  | 08 Dec 2024 8:42 a.m. PST |
Even considering their own "troubles," I am surprised that Russia and Iran gave-up on their puppet so quickly. If the new Syrian government is not worse than Assad, does this mean that we may see some sense of normalcy return to Lebanon? No pipeline for money and arms from Iran to terrorists that help destabilize the country? I did see mention online (so it is true) that Iran has already ramped-up their enrichment program. What a kick in the teeth; downfall of a dictator leads to a fully nuclear armed Iran. I could never have thought that I would prefer an Assad in Damascus. A little off topic, does this "loss" in Syria make Putin weaker or does he now double-down on his other projects? I used to believe that Putin was a rather savvy politician. His foray into Ukraine has caused NATO to expand all along his western border, strengthened the alliance, cleared-out a large chunk of his stored tanks and APCs, caused his economy to tank, shown Russia to be much weaker than previously thought, probably contributed to him losing Syria as an ally and making Russian interference into Africa much harder, as he no longer has a base of operation in the Middle East. Even if he gains territory from Ukraine, Russia is going to need a decade to recover and it will have a hostile Ukraine working to regain territory as an annoyance for the foreseeable future. Any idea how many troops Russia has in Syria? |
StoneMtnMinis  | 08 Dec 2024 9:07 a.m. PST |
This is President Trump's response to this developing crisis: link |
Gray Bear | 08 Dec 2024 9:12 a.m. PST |
"On the good side a chance for a Kurdish homeland." Pure fantasy. |
Gray Bear | 08 Dec 2024 9:13 a.m. PST |
This is President Biden's response to this developing crisis: |
Nine pound round | 08 Dec 2024 9:14 a.m. PST |
I dunno, 35th – I am torn between the inherent evil of colonialism and the thought that at least French colonial officials gave the Syrians and Lebanese a slightly more liberal model of governance than the Ottoman Turks. On the other hand, given the Assads' record, it is equally likely that they took the worst of both. In the Hama thread Cuprum seems to think the Brits are trying to revive their empire, which seems like one of the more amusing cases of projection that I've seen in recent hours. I am waiting to see his spin on the colllapse of Russia's Syrian satellite; my money is on the "you people will soon regret the disaster Russia was struggling heroically to prevent," or some variation on that theme. |
SBminisguy | 08 Dec 2024 9:47 a.m. PST |
Congratulations to team Obama-Biden for collapsing another secular dictator in the Middle East through involvement in a Civil War, and enabling the rise of Islamists to power! Libya – Success! Toppled Khadaffi leading to continued Civil War, mass refugee flows and half the country controlled by Islamist groups! Egypt – Partial Success – collapsed the Mubarak regime leading to the rise to power of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which was then ousted in a counter-coup. Obama was so annoyed he placed economic embargos on the new secular regime of Egypt. Lebanon – Success! Support for the "Cedar Revolution" ultimately led to deeper power and influence by Islamist Hezbollah over Lebanon Iraq – Success! Premature withdrawal of support led to the collapse of the Iraqi government's power and the rise of the Islamist ISIS Caliphate that ruled over western Iraq with brutality and fear. Iran – Succes! Obama tacitly sided with the Islamist Mullahs, so no change there except the pro-democracy forces were butchered in the streets Syria – Success! Obama funded and funneled arms and foot soldiers to Anti-Assad forces, including from Libya (see "Benghazi Arms Deal Gone Bad) even after the secular resistance had been wiped out, meaning the US was arming and funding Islamist groups affiliated with Al Qaida and ISIS, deepening the civil war leading to mass refugee flows, mass casualties and now the collapse of the Assad regime into various Islamist controlled power blocks, including AQ Syria. Bravo, well done! |
korsun0  | 08 Dec 2024 9:55 a.m. PST |
Don't forget Tony Blair and Libya…. Iraq should never have been invaded. No Fly zones at each end of the country kept him in check, and he kept the future ISIS in check. So whoever pushed that one stuffed up as well. |
korsun0  | 08 Dec 2024 9:58 a.m. PST |
As an aside, is the red colour of the rebel technicals paint,mud or sand? |
SBminisguy | 08 Dec 2024 10:29 a.m. PST |
Don't forget Tony Blair and Libya…. Iraq should never have been invaded. No Fly zones at each end of the country kept him in check, and he kept the future ISIS in check. So whoever pushed that one stuffed up as well. That was *heavily* led by the Obama Admin, and SecState Hillay Clinton in particular. I'm guessing given who's taking over parts of Syria -- ISIS and AQ groups -- that we'll see the mass forced conversions, enslavement and genocide of Christians, Yazidis and Alawites in Syria. |
Oberlindes Sol LIC  | 08 Dec 2024 11:06 a.m. PST |
That was *heavily* led by the Obama Admin, and SecState Hillay Clinton in particular. I thought Bush W and Tony Blair were in power for the invasion of Iraq. Or was "That" referring to something other than "Don't forget Tony Blair and Libya…. Iraq should never have been invaded."? |
Prince Alberts Revenge | 08 Dec 2024 11:25 a.m. PST |
For all those Americans blaming the other political side, let's not forget that other nations and their leaders have some agency in their actions. -Assad never attempted to endear himself to his people or neighboring governments. -Russia decided to invade Ukraine. -Zelensky did not flee when prompted by other world leaders. -The Iranian proxies decided to butcher Israelis. -Bibi did not listen to others to stop obliterating Hamas and Hezbollah. Perhaps if Russia didn't destroy their military in the SMO and Iran didn't empower their proxies to mess with Israel, Assad and his thugs wouldn't have been blown over by the rebels. The US hasn't had good foreign policy in decades, but I guess not everyone can be George HW Bush. |
Tortorella  | 08 Dec 2024 11:26 a.m. PST |
SB …Er, how come no mention of Carter and the hostages, Reagan – Iran, Lebanon, the rise of Hezbollah, the modern terror wars, and the killing of hundreds of American Marines? Cheney – the WMDs and the invasion of Iraq? Rumsfeld and the Iraq war? Biden and the return of Isis? I will leave out 9/11 since I have no knowledge about the details leading up to it and whether Clinton/Bush should make your list. Except maybe we can leave Obama out of it. |
Legion 4  | 08 Dec 2024 12:20 p.m. PST |
This is a Iron Curtain/Wall falling down moment. This will change the map, so to speak. Assad feel more quickly than many thought, including me and some of my friends. Assad is in Russia now. He should be safe there. Has the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest as a war criminal yet. The US and IDF AF struck targets in Syria in the past few days. IIRC the US primarily struct terrorists targets. The IDF has sent force to the Syrian border. This is a big lose for : The Russians who evac'd out and lost their port in the Med and another airfield. Took some losses on the ground if the reports are correct. Putin took eyes off this ball to try to manage his war in Ukraine. Iran is also on the loser board. They supported Assad with weapons, etc. to Assad. As well as they had supported Hamas and Hezbollah. With Syria under new management, it will be harder for Iran to support them. Plus Iran had to pull out all of its troops on the ground. Iran's plans for starting a wider war against the Jews and the US has failed. Some of the anti-Assad forces were/are from terrorists' groups, e.g. AQ. It is an X-Factor which way they will go. Work with the remaining anti-Assad Syrian forces. Or will they go jihadi again. E.g. AQ and/or ISIS. The Turks, with the non-terrorists of the FSA and Kurds will be the bulwark against these terrorists. If reports are correct the Turks and Kurds are not actively engaging each other. And IIRC not all of the Kurdish factions were at war with the Turks anyway. But as always it is very complicated in this region of old hatreds of other religions, ethnicities, tribes, etc., etc. So, what is said today may change tomorrow, etc. All things being equal, terrorists may change who they are currently fighting. But bottom line they are terrorists motivated by killing off the infidels, etc. And some still want to start a caliphate. Old habits in this region die hard. And ISIS is still around. Occasionally the US kills off some of their leaders in Syria and Iraq. As the IDF has done with Hezbollah and Hamas. A conflict of some type may still be going on. Terrorists like cockroaches are hard to kill them all off. Notably the nations that border Syria are sending troops to their borders. Syrian refugees may go to Turkey as some are there already. And they may be heading back to Syria in the coming days. US GEN Ret. McMasters being interviewed today of FOX also noted the only way to really have peace in the area is to destroy Hamas totally. As they will always be a thorn in the side of Israel and peace in the region. And was one of Iran's proxies/puppets. However, to continue to attack Hamas more Palestinian civilians will end up dying. That is how Hamas works. But again, Iran has lost supply routes to Assad, Hezbollah and Hamas. With new leadership in the WH/DC they will play hardball with Iran. Intering with Iran's oil shipping to other nations. The US once kick up into full speed with be not only be oil independent, but oil dominate. The US allies that need oil could get it from the US. But it may take some time in the US to get oil drilling, etc. up to speed. As the current POTUS's War on fossil fuels did much, much more harm to the US and some others in the world than anything else. As the Green agenda was a failure as the tech is not there yet. They're priories were wrong since Day 1 … |
SBminisguy | 08 Dec 2024 2:37 p.m. PST |
I will leave out 9/11 since I have no knowledge about the details leading up to it and whether Clinton/Bush should make your list. Except maybe we can leave Obama out of it. Nope – the major disasters and wars in the last 15 years in the Middle East have been created or inflamed by awful decisions by the Obama and Biden Admins. The Libyan War was completely initiated by Obama in alliance with France and Britain who made it a NATO war. The Syrian Civil was inflamed and extended by Obama's efforts, who ended up funneling arms and militants into Islamist groups in Syria. The creation of ISIS -- Obama. So sure, the Middle East is pretty messy, only Carter and Trump have scored any significant peace deals over the last 50 years while other presidents have helped set the place on fire -- but Obama and Biden are serial peace arsonists. |
Tortorella  | 08 Dec 2024 7:25 p.m. PST |
I am saying you can leave Obama out of 9/11 considerations, not the other events you cite. |
SBminisguy | 08 Dec 2024 10:28 p.m. PST |
Sure, but I didn't mention that. |
Tortorella  | 09 Dec 2024 9:18 a.m. PST |
So how does "having nothing to do with this" work for the US? We still have troops there, Iran is alone and vulnerable, our adversaries will certainly see opportunities to leverage their agendas. Can we help get something going in Iran, like a revolution and a democracy? Can we somehow help keep the militias in Syria from turning it into a broken chaotic terrorist state? Surely the next moves with Iran are paramount… this looks like a major moment in history to work toward stabilizing the region. Aren't the bad guys on the run? I know we don't want another boots on the ground war. |
35thOVI  | 09 Dec 2024 9:36 a.m. PST |
Democracy? It does not seem to take in those areas. Sadly dictatorships, Kings and Religious fundamental fanaticism seems to be all that ever takes and holds there. |
Tortorella  | 09 Dec 2024 10:04 a.m. PST |
I was thinking about Iranians who might support it. They have protested in the not too distant past. |
SBminisguy | 09 Dec 2024 11:43 a.m. PST |
Can we help get something going in Iran, like a revolution and a democracy? Oh -- we HAD that in 2009…Obama tacitly supported the Mullahs and did nothing while the protesters were butchered in the streets -- and the Mullahs even brought in Hezbollah thugs to help crush the popular revolt. That's why people in Iran celebrated the Israeli exploding pager opp. Well, enough of looking backwards -- maybe the incoming POTUS can get something better done. |
Grattan54  | 09 Dec 2024 1:49 p.m. PST |
I Think Bush II had a role in this as well. We should never have invaded Iraq. Much of today's troubles stem from the mistakes we made there. |
35thOVI  | 09 Dec 2024 3:05 p.m. PST |
Our mistakes… attempts to Nation Build. We win the battles, then we stay and attempt to change the culture and politics of countries and people who can't comprehend and do not want Western style government. Why our politicians keep doing it is beyond my understanding. If The boiler is hot, you don't keep touching it and expect not to be burnt each time. |
35thOVI  | 09 Dec 2024 4:26 p.m. PST |
Interesting perspective from Russian press. Their own Afghanistan withdrawal moment? Subject: "We were screwed over": Russian propagandists fume over downfall of Assad regime in Syria theins.ru/en/news/277029 |
McKinstry  | 09 Dec 2024 6:13 p.m. PST |
I'm not sure how HTS will behave but if Syria becomes a Libya level failed state, with countless splinter terrorists., everyone loses. On first glance Russia lost a port and more importantly an airfield for supplying their quasi mercenaries in Africa. Iran lost an Alawite kind of Shia ally and more importantly, a government protected supply route to Hezbollah. Israel probably won and probably the US assuming the new government can put together a functional government and we avoid meddling. Turkey likely won biggest as many of the groups under the HTS are Turkish clients. The Kurds are, as always, probably hosed. |
SBminisguy | 09 Dec 2024 6:33 p.m. PST |
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Legion 4  | 09 Dec 2024 7:03 p.m. PST |
There is no way the US should get involved in trying to turn Syria into a democracy. That did not work out very well in the past. And anyway it is too early, the factions have to fight it out for dominance. The Turks may be able to tip the scales. However, there is always the possibility of Syria turning into another Afghanistan. The US again IMO has to support the Kurd keeping the thousands of ISIS prisoners in the camps. |
Tango01  | 09 Dec 2024 9:35 p.m. PST |
Lines on a 1916 Map May Not Keep Syria Together link
Armand |
Tortorella  | 10 Dec 2024 4:44 a.m. PST |
Yes, I know what we don't want…another never ending nation byilding war. I am wondering if there are other ways to influence Syrian outcomes. And ultimately, Iranian dissidents while the Guardian Council is focused on external concerns. Will they unveil some sort of nuclear capacity? Is there not some way we can leverage the latest events to weaken them further? |
35thOVI  | 10 Dec 2024 5:02 a.m. PST |
What have we learned since ancient times in this area? There have always been factions, multiple contending religions, hate and war. Why would we think this is going to change? What we have to hope is, a fanatic, fundamentalists religious government does NOT take over. |
SBminisguy | 10 Dec 2024 10:28 a.m. PST |
What we have to hope is, a fanatic, fundamentalists religious government does NOT take over. You mean like the one that just toppled Assad and took Damascus? I wonder how much help they got from Biden Admin's CIA… |
Legion 4  | 10 Dec 2024 1:38 p.m. PST |
You mean like the one that just toppled Assad and took Damascus? I wonder how much help they got from Biden Admin's CIA… Based on the past …very little ……. |
Cuprum2  | 10 Dec 2024 11:40 p.m. PST |
The main Russian bases remain in Syria for now. Only those Russian units that guarded various facilities used by the Russians on Syrian territory are withdrawing from their positions, as well as the Russian military police, which, together with the Turkish army, provided security along the dividing line (including the border between the Kurds and pro-Turkish forces). The new authorities have given guarantees of non-attack on them and the Russian embassy. The only problem is that these new authorities can actually control… Although, I think, a lot here depends on Erdogan's position – he pays, and therefore controls. Russian ships have been taken out to sea to avoid possible provocative strikes on them in the bases – the bases are now in the zone of possible artillery fire from the rebels. Although the Russian bases are located in the territories populated by Alawites, which significantly simplifies the current situation for the Russians. According to various estimates, the Russian contingent on Syrian territory numbered 7 thousand people (including sailors and civilian personnel). From 30 to 70 aircraft and helicopters. About 10 ships and vessels. Air defense systems. Now a significant part of these forces will be withdrawn and, probably, sent to the Ukrainian front. Leaving the Tartus and Heimim bases will significantly complicate logistics for Russian contingents in Africa. Large-scale clashes with the participation of Turkish aviation and artillery have begun between pro-Turkish forces and the Kurds. |