CFeicht | 05 Dec 2024 9:57 a.m. PST |
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Tortorella  | 05 Dec 2024 12:04 p.m. PST |
Will there be another massacre? |
SBminisguy | 05 Dec 2024 2:06 p.m. PST |
I would presume so, since the faction that took Hama is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, al-Qaida's branch in Syria. |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 05 Dec 2024 2:39 p.m. PST |
This version of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham vastly different from the prior one. Their current leader has advocated for: -No revenge reprisals -Protection of civilians and religious minorities, particularly singling out Christians & Kurds -the avoidance of unnecessary infrastructure damage. -No links to AL Qaida or Isis. |
Cuprum2  | 05 Dec 2024 3:39 p.m. PST |
What are you talking about? "Telegram" is already full of scenes of executions of captured Syrian soldiers, Alawites… The terrorist leader can say whatever he wants, but his thugs are terrorists. And they will do what they believe is right… Don't watch it for the faint of heart: vk.com/video-73096667_456247929 vk.com/video585874971_456239185 |
Editor in Chief Bill  | 05 Dec 2024 3:50 p.m. PST |
Seems Assad is about to be cut from the port and airfield where Russian support comes from. Seems Russia may lose a key supply base for its African adventures. |
Dragon Gunner | 05 Dec 2024 3:59 p.m. PST |
The rest of the regime could go quickly like a dam breaking, I wonder if the Russians are going to make it out before it happens? |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 05 Dec 2024 6:39 p.m. PST |
"Telegram" ;-) I noticed you conveniently left out the videos of the Assad Regime & Russians bombing schools & hospitals in Aleppo after its fall. As to HTS: link "So far, few if any violations have been documented against Aleppo's minority populations. Instead, opposition factions have repeatedly sought to reassure Kurds and religious minorities. On Wednesday, HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani visited Aleppo and reiterated that "Muslims and Christians in all their diversity will be respected" in a statement to the International Crisis Group (ICG). On Sunday, the HTS-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) Department of Political Affairs issued a statement declaring it strived to" protect the rights of civilians of all Syrian sects and components." In a later statement, HTS called on Alawites—the sect President Bashar al-Assad belongs to—to be "part of the Syria of the future that doesn't recognize sectarianism." From: link Time will tell if HTS will be able to build a Coalition Force and avoid greater reprisals in conquered areas. Youre talking about people who have suffered under Assads Regime for decades. There is no doubt that Assad Loyalists taken into custody face an unsure future. |
SBminisguy | 05 Dec 2024 7:15 p.m. PST |
Uesugi Kenshin Supporting Member of TMP 05 Dec 2024 2:39 p.m. PST This version of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham vastly different from the prior one.Their current leader has advocated for: -No revenge reprisals -Protection of civilians and religious minorities, particularly singling out Christians & Kurds -the avoidance of unnecessary infrastructure damage. -No links to AL Qaida or Isis. The videos being posted by various groups and Jihadis to X and social media show otherwise -- one video shows Al Qaida fighters being rewarded with enslaved girls and women, handed out from the back of a truck like party favors. |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 05 Dec 2024 7:44 p.m. PST |
SBminisguy I've yet to see anything like what you've stated. But that doesn't mean it's not happening. And the few "reprisals" videos I've seen have no context as to what's happening at all. I'm simply pointing out that the "current" Rebel Leader is calling for a unified front w/out reprisals and for the protection of minorities. I think that's admirable. But he's now in charge of roughly a dozen various Militia forces, several with horrible histories of abuses. Weather he can control them remains to be seen. Nothing I've seen done by forces under his control in the last week approach or outdo the atrocities committed by the Assad Regime and their Russian Masters. |
Legion 4  | 05 Dec 2024 7:45 p.m. PST |
Seems Assad is about to be cut from the port and airfield where Russian support comes from.Seems Russia may lose a key supply base for its African adventures. That is how I figured it. And that was the only reason the Russians were there. The port and the airfield … I would presume so, since the faction that took Hama is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, al-Qaida's branch in Syria. The intel I heard they were the AQ branch in Iraq called Al Nusra. Now they changed their name in Syria. With all the factions, etc. on all sides they need to wear numbered and different colored jerseys. With a team roster for each. Botton line they are generally the same but in name only and few other odds & ends. E.g. ISIS-K is just Taliban that thought they were not radical enough. So, they changed it. Again, they are all just religious fanatics and fundamentalists like in the 15th Century. But with AKs and pick up trucks. Al Qaida fighters being rewarded with enslaved girls and women, handed out from the back of a truck like party favors. Yeah like I said 15th Century. Their current leader has advocated for: -No revenge reprisals -Protection of civilians and religious minorities, particularly singling out Christians & Kurds -the avoidance of unnecessary infrastructure damage. -No links to AL Qaida or Isis. We're talking about moslem terrorists, radicals, fundamentalists and fanatics right ? I wonder if the Russians are going to make it out before it happens? They may have a better chance of survival in Syria. Than going back to Russia and get sent to the meatgrinder in Ukraine. I've yet to see anything like what you've stated. But that doesn't mean it's not happening. Wait … |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 05 Dec 2024 7:50 p.m. PST |
@Legion 4, the Russians in Ukraine are not "moslem terrorists, radicals, fundamentalists" but have committed many of the same abuses in Ukraine, including the wholesale deportation of Ukrainian Children and the mass rapes of both Ukrainian men & women but for some reason they get a pass because they're White Christians? And don't forget Americas decades old policy of supporting Regimes known for tremendous human rights abuses (Vietnam, Central America, Iraq & Afghanistan) so long as those regimes were instep with our foreign policy. "Moslem Fundamentalists" hardly have a monopoly on human rights abuses Buddy. |
Legion 4  | 05 Dec 2024 7:59 p.m. PST |
From what I understand the information is out there about Russian War Crimes … When it comes to war crimes no one gets a pass. Does it really matter ? It seems in the Mid East war crimes and crimes against humanity almost appear as SOP. Very rarely does that happen if ever in Europe, since the end of WWII. Albeit we can't forget about the former Yugoslavia a few decades back. But as had been said before the first casualty of war is truth. |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 05 Dec 2024 8:11 p.m. PST |
All I know is if HTS is killing Assadists, Russians & Iranian Militias, then they have my support until they lose it. |
McKinstry  | 05 Dec 2024 9:42 p.m. PST |
Even with the Russian/Iranian thumb on the Assad side of the scale there was still functional resistance and now with Russia otherwise occupied and Iran much weaker , gains for HTS seem likely to continue for a bit but, I'm not sure any entity in the near term future can truly get control of the sucking chest wound contained in a dumpster fire that is Syria. The lines on the map may move but the perpetual civil war continues on. |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 05 Dec 2024 9:56 p.m. PST |
Indeed. Well said. Strategically what will be interesting this week is will the Rebels move on Homs or will they turn west and move on the Russian Naval Base. If it's the latter, what steps will (can) Russia do to prevent that? |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 05 Dec 2024 11:50 p.m. PST |
Update: most recent interview with Al-Jolani: link |
jedburgh | 06 Dec 2024 7:54 a.m. PST |
This could be embarrassing there's a $10 USD Million reward for Al Jolani on the FBI website link |
Legion 4  | 06 Dec 2024 8:24 a.m. PST |
All I know is if HTS is killing Assadists, Russians & Iranian Militias, then they have my support until they lose it. Could not agree more … Even with the Russian/Iranian thumb on the Assad side of the scale there was still functional resistance and now with Russia otherwise occupied and Iran much weaker , gains for HTS seem likely to continue for a bit but, I'm not sure any entity in the near term future can truly get control of the sucking chest wound contained in a dumpster fire that is Syria. The lines on the map may move but the perpetual civil war continues on. Bingo ! Seems almost constant war at some level is always going on in the region. E.g. How long has Syria been in a "civil war" ? 30 years ? |
SBminisguy | 06 Dec 2024 9:11 a.m. PST |
I'm simply pointing out that the "current" Rebel Leader is calling for a unified front w/out reprisals and for the protection of minorities. Yep -- same promises the Taliban made as the Biden regime was collapsing the US presence and running away in the most embarrassing defeat since the Fall of Saigon. How's that working out? |
Gray Bear | 06 Dec 2024 9:30 a.m. PST |
In WW2 we appropriately supported one monster, Stalin, versus an ever worse monster, Hitler. In Syria, we should support the monster Assad over the exponentially worse fundamentalist Sunni monster. Whatever criticism Assad has justly earned, he treats indigenous Christian communities relatively well. As did Saddam Hussein. We should have learned from the Iraq disaster that toppling a secularist dictator in the Middle East will always yield a worse result. My hope is the Russians, Iraqis and Iranians will not prove feckless allies but will defeat the barbarians. |
jeffbird  | 06 Dec 2024 9:46 a.m. PST |
Gray Bear,completely agree. Ive always said, at the UN you condone but behind closed doors, you give them a handshake for keeping people in check. This has happened in Somalia, Iraq, Libya. |
SBminisguy | 06 Dec 2024 9:50 a.m. PST |
Gray Bear +1 -- sometimes the alternative is worse. AND the US NEVER should have gotten involved in the Syrian Civil War, that's ALL on the Obama/Biden team. |
Nine pound round | 06 Dec 2024 11:00 a.m. PST |
One thing is a safe bet, if Middle Eastern history is any guide: today's freedom-fighter is likely to be tomorrow's tyrant. The best thing may be to hope for very heavy casualties all around, and the peace of the graveyard when it's all done. |
Uesugi Kenshin  | 06 Dec 2024 12:16 p.m. PST |
Excellent update video worth a watch. Assadists & Russians appear to be fleeing from Homs. Rebels appear to be ready to enter or encircle Homs imminently. If Homs is taken that would almost certainly cut the link between Damascus & Latakia. Kurds appear to have captured a major border crossing into Iraq thus cutting off Iranian support from Iraq. Things are moving very quickly. link |
Dragon Gunner | 06 Dec 2024 1:18 p.m. PST |
"The best thing may be to hope for very heavy casualties all around, and the peace of the graveyard when it's all done." -Nine Pound Round I want them all to lose… |
SBminisguy | 06 Dec 2024 1:55 p.m. PST |
I want them all to lose… That's right!! |
Legion 4  | 06 Dec 2024 7:23 p.m. PST |
today's freedom-fighter is likely to be tomorrow's tyrant. The best thing may be to hope for very heavy casualties all around, and the peace of the graveyard when it's all done. 9lbs Rd +1 Dragon +1 Kurds appear to have captured a major border crossing into Iraq thus cutting off Iranian support from Iraq. That could prove to be critical … |
Cuprum2  | 06 Dec 2024 8:11 p.m. PST |
Uesugi Kenshin, the belief that yesterday's Al-Qaeda terrorists are seeking peace between nationalities… well, that's very naive, to say the least. These "revolutionary" troops include huge contingents of foreign fighters who have nothing to do with Syria at all. They are Uighurs, Tajiks, and others. Do you believe that these Muslim "internationalists" are fighting for the liberation of all the peoples of Syria? Do you believe that these disparate factions will be able to find a common language after Assad's fall? If Assad loses, Syria will simply face a continuation of the "all against all" war, as is happening now in Libya. As for your support for the terrorists, I think you will lose it quite soon – when new waves of refugees appear on your streets, and inspired jihadists once again take up terrorism in the West. As for the Russians losing their bases in Syria, that's still not so simple. These bases are located in territories populated by Alawites, and they are already quite successfully resisting terrorists. Simply because they will be physically destroyed or enslaved after the arrival of the "fighters against the criminal regime". And in general, to understand the events taking place, it is advisable to look at the map of national regions in Syria.
By the way, pro-Turkish groups are already fighting the Kurds… The chaos is just beginning. |
Legion 4  | 07 Dec 2024 9:52 a.m. PST |
pro-Turkish groups are already fighting the Kurds… The chaos is just beginning. That is SOP … Reports are the anti-Assad forces are taking more towns. Iran's forces there are taking losses. The Turks are supposed to be on our side. The Turks and Kurds are fighting the anti-Assad forces. So that report I just heard may change within 24-48hrs, IMO … |
Legion 4  | 07 Dec 2024 9:52 a.m. PST |
pro-Turkish groups are already fighting the Kurds… The chaos is just beginning. That is SOP … Reports are the anti-Assad forces are taking more towns. Iran's forces there are taking losses. The Turks are supposed to be on our side. The Turks and Kurds are fighting the anti-Assad forces. So that report I just heard may change within 24-48hrs, IMO … |
35thOVI  | 07 Dec 2024 10:43 a.m. PST |
Could the Turks be trying to reconstitute elements of the Ottoman Empire? 🤔 |
korsun0  | 07 Dec 2024 1:21 p.m. PST |
What will happen to the Kurds once US forces leave Syria? |
Grattan54  | 07 Dec 2024 2:15 p.m. PST |
How many forces do we have in Syria? |
CFeicht | 07 Dec 2024 2:29 p.m. PST |
SOF in the deserts south\southeast of Palmyra providing logistical support for the remnants of the Free Syrian Army and some in Deir er Zor governate. |
35thOVI  | 07 Dec 2024 4:48 p.m. PST |
Subject: Syrian Dictator Assad Begs U.S. To Save Him As Terrorist Rebels Encircle Damascus link |
Cuprum2  | 07 Dec 2024 5:50 p.m. PST |
35thOVI, the Turks have been trying to recreate their empire for quite some time now. Their ambitions extend to the entire Turkic-speaking world. In fact, as far as I can tell, even in Europe there are tendencies to revive old empires… Poland, Great Britain, Hungary, in my opinion, have similar ambitions. CFeicht, it's funny that now the forces supported by the USA – the Kurds and pro-Turkish groups – are fighting among themselves))) Assad seems to have already lost his war… His army has fallen apart. His allies will not have time to come to his aid. Russia and Iran have suffered a major defeat. Most likely, the country will now disintegrate into several provinces fighting among themselves… |
Cuprum2  | 07 Dec 2024 6:03 p.m. PST |
korsun0, you are asking the question incorrectly… Correctly – who will control the oil-bearing regions of north-east Syria? Turks or USA?)))
Now the US will try to weaken Turkey and the Kurds will finally have a real opportunity to create their own state. A counterweight to Turkey (anti-Turkish "Ukraine"). Will they be able to refrain from direct military confrontation? I seriously doubt it. The world is changing… |
35thOVI  | 07 Dec 2024 7:58 p.m. PST |
I heard Assad had fled the country. Talk about a quick collapse. |
Cuprum2  | 07 Dec 2024 9:21 p.m. PST |
I heard the plane he was trying to escape on was shot down. Then it will not look like a military defeat, but like a conspiracy. |
Tango01  | 07 Dec 2024 9:33 p.m. PST |
Syria, a Battle for Domination of the Entire Middle East link Armand
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Cuprum2  | 07 Dec 2024 9:54 p.m. PST |
ISIS leaders held in Syrian prisons have reportedly been released by rebels. Israeli occupation forces, accompanied by tanks, have crossed into the Syrian territories from the occupied Syrian Golan, early on Sunday, according to Israeli media outlets. The Israeli regime infiltrated the demilitarized zone in Syria, deploying large forces in the al-Quneitra area, in southwestern Syria. This comes after militants in Syria took over the province, following the withdrawal of Syrian Arab Army forces from the area. |
Legion 4  | 07 Dec 2024 11:08 p.m. PST |
Could the Turks be trying to reconstitute elements of the Ottoman Empire? They could only take back very small part of their former empire, e.g. Syria… maybe … Their empire at the time of WWI was huge. Then they lost most of it, as we know. Many to the Europeans … How many forces do we have in Syria? About 900 … SOF in the deserts south\southeast of Palmyra providing logistical support for the remnants of the Free Syrian Army and some in Deir er Zor governate. That is similar to as I understand it. At least that is what is unclassified … Now the US will try to weaken Turkey I'm not sure how or if that will happen. The US currently has almost a total lack of CinC, VP, etc. Not until the new POTUS is in the WH, I doubt anything will happen. and the Kurds will finally have a real opportunity to create their own state. The Kurds have a number of factions, they generally don't always work together. And much of the Kurdish traditional homelands is in North Iraq. The Iraqis try to have a coalition gov't with the Shia, Sunni, Kurds, Yazidis(if there is any left after the ISIS genocide), etc. Not sure at this point how well that is working at this time. In Iraq the Shia are the majority at 65%. They generally tend to be under the influence of Iran[90-95% Shia]. Iraq is about 15% Sunni. Then the rest is made up various groups. Including the Kurds. The US still has about 2500 troops in Iraq. And they occasionally get attacked by Iraqi Shia militias, heavily support by Iran. My very big concern is the Kurds mostly in Northwest Iraq, AFAIK have thousands of ISIS prisoners in a number of camps. Primarily run by Kurds. The remnants of ISIS has tried to attack some of those camps to release some of their brothers. To use them to add to their small forces they have left. The camp are women & children in some camp. The males in others. The women's camps are run like their own little ISIS enclaves. Indoctrinating them in ISIS dogma, etc. Breeding the next generation of ISIS jihadis. IF somehow those ISIS EPWs escape, they will be a welcomed addition to their existing forces. These ISIS EPWs, men, women and children are unrepentant. Most seriously doubt they will go back to being peaceful farmers, goat herders, etc. IMO that is a serious threat to peace in the region. And AFAIK there is no plan of what to do with these ISIS terrorists. A counterweight to Turkey (anti-Turkish "Ukraine"). Will they be able to refrain from direct military confrontation? The Turks have the 2d largest military in NATO. A far second to the USA. I seriously doubt it. The world is changing… With all the factions involved, many supported by Iran. Even as the Assad regime is collapsing, if true. With all these factions, I don't know if "new" Syria would be successful in creating a coalition gov't. like Iraq loosely has. |
Cuprum2  | 07 Dec 2024 11:56 p.m. PST |
Legion 4, Turkey's influence is growing in Transcaucasia (Azerbaijan, Abkhazia), in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Now the Turks will most likely control Syria. Their influence on the Sunnis in the region will be undeniable. The possible restoration of the Ottoman Empire in the future is clearly visible. Nobody knows how combat-ready the Turkish army is. But it is certain that this is a serious force in the region. Iran also appears to be planning a deal with the United States. There is still too much uncertainty about what scenario will develop. |
35thOVI  | 08 Dec 2024 5:14 a.m. PST |
1) there will be battles now between the winners. 2) without someone-country stabilizing it Syria will devolve into chaos, with a ripe opportunity for radical Islam to rear it's Jihadi Head again. 3) will Russia readily give up its only other warm water port, other than Crimea? 4) Trump had said the US needs to stay out of this for now. 5) But the Biden Admin is still in power. No one knows what they will do. 6) yes Israel has made efforts to secure their Golan Heights positions. 7) I personally believe Turkey is attempting to expand. The Ottoman Empire was not built in a day. 😉 |
35thOVI  | 08 Dec 2024 8:33 a.m. PST |
One had to ask: How much better off would we be today, if Britain and France had never implemented the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement? |
Legion 4  | 08 Dec 2024 12:45 p.m. PST |
Legion 4, Turkey's influence is growing in Transcaucasia (Azerbaijan, Abkhazia), in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Now the Turks will most likely control Syria. Their influence on the Sunnis in the region will be undeniable. Yes but the Turks are still part of NATO. The possible restoration of the Ottoman Empire in the future is clearly visible. The Ottoman empire was huge until after WWI. They will be lucky to control Syria. You must have seen a map of how many nations resulted in the fall of the Turks in 1918. Nobody knows how combat-ready the Turkish army is. They are NATO they should have some level of combat readiness. But it is certain that this is a serious force in the region. Second largest in NATO, way behind the USA. Who is 1st. .Iran also appears to be planning a deal with the United States. They better hurry up. As the new POTUS plans on hamstringing Iran. As they are the biggest troublemaker in the region. And top sponsor of islamic terrorism. I don't know how Iran could really get into the USA's good graces. The new POTUS has no plans giving them Billions of $ as the current one did. It only went to funding terrorism and their nuke project. Something we have learned in the West – you can't make deals with terrorists … All they understand is strength and a lot of HE … There is still too much uncertainty about what scenario will develop. Completely, the region is full of X-Factors. The Turks, Kurds, FSA, Terrorists, etc., etc., … what could possibly go wrong ? |
Legion 4  | 08 Dec 2024 1:15 p.m. PST |
Recent report on FOX : US hit large number of ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq … Turkish supported forces are fighting with the Kurds … HTS former AQ Terrorists group lead the way into Damascus. They may still want a caliphate, etc. … Had the current POTUS not given Iran billions of $ to Iran. Much of it used to support islamic terrorists in the area, e.g. Hamas, Hezbollah, etc. This could have happened a couple of years ago. And thousands of dead Israelis and Palestinians would still be alive … |
CFeicht | 08 Dec 2024 1:43 p.m. PST |
Heavy fighting underway between SAF and SDF in the city of Manbij with SAF apparently seizing the place with Turkish air support after the Kurds withdrew. US warns HTS/SDF to not cross the Euphrates line toward Raqqa and Deir er Zor. |
35thOVI  | 08 Dec 2024 2:44 p.m. PST |
Interesting: Trump says to stay out of it. Biden(whoever is in charge. Jill? Barrack?) decides suddenly to get tough now and launches all types of air strikes and you are saying he set a "redline" as well. 🤔 |