"Probability help please" Topic
7 Posts
All members in good standing are free to post here. Opinions expressed here are solely those of the posters, and have not been cleared with nor are they endorsed by The Miniatures Page.
Remember that you can Stifle members so that you don't have to read their posts.
For more information, see the TMP FAQ.
Back to the Dice Message Board
Areas of InterestGeneral
Featured Hobby News Article
Featured Recent Link
Featured Showcase Article
Featured Workbench Article If the AI doesn't know the Vietnam War, does it know Star Trek?
Featured Book Review
|
Please sign in to your membership account, or, if you are not yet a member, please sign up for your free membership account.
| Schogun | 24 Nov 2024 11:28 a.m. PST |
A model has three rolls to hit with 1d20. The first roll for success is 9 or less (45%), second is 7 or less (35%), third is 5 or less (25%). What are the odds of getting 1/2/3 hits? Thanks |
| BillyNM | 24 Nov 2024 12:51 p.m. PST |
For one success it is: 45% x (100-35)% x (100-25)% = 21.9375%
+
(100-45)% x 35% X (100-25)% = 14.4375%
+
(100-45)% x (100-35)% x 25% = 8.9375% = 45.3125% For two successes it is: 45% x 35% x (100-25)% = 11.8125%
+
45% x (100-35)% x 25% = 7.3125%
+
(100-45)% x 35% x 25% = 4.8125% = 23.9375% For three successes it is: 45% x 35% x 25% = 3.9375% For zero successes it is: (100-45)% x (100x35)% x (100-25%) = 26.8125% You calculate the probability for any particular set of results on the three dice by multiplying the probablity of each result. To find the probability for all the results giving the same score you sum them. |
| Schogun | 24 Nov 2024 1:49 p.m. PST |
|
| Dagwood | 25 Nov 2024 1:02 a.m. PST |
Beware of the zero. For 9 or less to be 45%,the zero must count as HIGH, i.e., 20
Otherwise 9 or less is 50%. |
GildasFacit  | 25 Nov 2024 2:23 a.m. PST |
My D20 are numbered 1-20. |
| Dagwood | 25 Nov 2024 1:07 p.m. PST |
I was thinking of D10s numbered 0 – 9. Not sure I have any D20s ! |
Wolfhag  | 26 Nov 2024 1:58 p.m. PST |
Wouldn't you use a binomial table with one die roll telling you the # of hits? Wolfhag |
|
worries about not losing his rules stuff.
