"Ukraine war why are we bothering about bit part players?" Topic

I didn't watch the video, but I assume the written summary captures hiis expressed opinions. Interesting to see these points coming from Sachs; there was nobody who expressed the neoliberal consensus in the 1990s more forcibly than he did. I don't know if he's still barred from Russia, but I would expect he still is. This is certainly "evidence against interest" (although I admittedly have not paid him much mind for fifteen-odd years, so who knows where his head got to in the meantime).

Nine I actually found the "National security archive" article more interesting.

Looks more like we are pretty much evenly split, 35th, given more than one poll showing one or two point margins. Like so many other things…

But I have changed my mind. The Trump led Congress killed the aid bill and that was maybe the last chance, but now I don't really think it would have won the war. With hindsight maybe there was no chance from the start. Putin knew he had to hang in until our election for a chance to get a deal. At least his army took a beating. But Ukraine paid a huge price.

A lot of very unwise things got said and done during the end of history in the 1990s. There is merit to the idea that the Kosovo War was a significant inflection point in US/USSR relations. I vividly remember the brouhaha that ensued when the Russian paratroopers landed in Pristina, and Wes Clark's reaction was to tell the Brits to eject them. Crazy how bad the hubris was in those days.

link

Some interesting commentary and context from another bit player, Commander Salamander:

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SBminisguy, after Russia was denied even the opportunity to join NATO, it became clear who this military bloc is directed against.

Russia will never win provided there are not cowards who want to stop sanctions. Sanctions will forever stop the rise of Russia.
Perhaps the US President elect could put a 100% tariff on Russian goods for ever. Peace in Ukraine does not have to stop sanctions especially if its an unreasonable "peace" by countries with no backbone.

Cuprum, it's been clear which country NATO were DEFENDING against ever since it's inception.

"Didn't the US guarantee the Ukrainian borders ? The US has far more responsibility to protect Ukraine than most of the European countries, NATO has nothing to do with it."-Dagwood

In 1994, Ukraine agreed to transfer these weapons to Russia and became a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in exchange for assurances from Russia, the United States and United Kingdom to respect the Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.

The USA has respected Ukraine's borders, Russia has not. I do not recall any kind of defense pact with Ukraine. However it appears the UK was party to this agreement so why is the USA more responsible?

UshCha, Russia has already won. Now there is a "war for peace", that is, for the conditions under which it will be formalized ;-)
Thank you for your sanctions. They destroyed your "global world" and forced Russia to wake up.

Dagwood, of course… NATO defended itself from Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria and many other countries)))

Dragon Gunner, so what? Wasn't the presence of your officials on Maidan an interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine? What kind of sovereignty can we talk about after this?

You can define the term "Russia has already won"?

You won territory (or recovered it according to his script)… you won because your economy recovered or is stronger… you won because of the number of troops killed or maimed… you won because of the number of tanks or military vehicles destroyed… you won because of the complaints about human rights violations… you won because of the number of kidnappings and torture of innocent civilians… you won because of the international recognition of your warlike acts… there are too many variables that I would like to know which are the most important for the Russians…

Armand

@Cuprum

Diplomats at Maidan doesn't even come close or compare to what Russia has done.

"Russia has already won"?-Cuprum

I predict Russia will reprise it's role as Mordor.

If you treat him as if he's arguing in good faith, you give his arguments more legitimacy than they merit.

I view Cuprum as brainwashed by his countries propaganda but I still like to hear his point of view and he articulates himself well.

Yes, that's exactly what makes it bad-faith argumentation: he never argues against interest, as an honest person would do from time to time. He may be typical for Russia, but that's no reason not to hold him to strict account.

"I view Cuprum as brainwashed by his countries propaganda"

No, you are wrong.
He IS that propaganda.

And for heaven's sake ! Only NATO and Russia go to WWIII on the gaming table. Either Cardboard chits or little toy soldiers … Geez !!!

Sadly I fear, Ukraine will have to accept a brokered peace with Putin holding on with to few places they took by force i.e. the Donbas or already had i.e. Crimea …

And 10 years from now the Russians will attack again after they refit, rearm, regroup and see if Un will send them a few thousand more troops.

Even if the UN sets up a buffer zone/DMZ between the two nations. Like in the ROK or Cyprus …that will mean little to them Russkies.

The real tragedy is the 100s of 1000s of dead and billions of $ wasted because a throwback living in the last century decided he wanted to be the next Stalin … And he and his associates will never be brought to justice … Until they die and go to Hell … of course …

There is no more precious quantity in warfare than time; if Ukraine could eke out ten years to rearm and refit, and prepare for another round, that would be an enormously valuable gain.

In ten years, Putin would be 82. Whether he will still be in power, and still have the same aggressive appetite is more than I can guess, but a lot can happen in ten years. Although I would not expect him to be replaced be someone whose views on Ukraine are markedly different: he fits solidly in the Russian tradition.

Sho Book +1

From past arguments I've had with him I honestly wonder if it's a propaganda bot

In ten years, Putin would be 82. Whether he will still be in power, and still have the same aggressive appetite is more than I can guess, but a lot can happen in ten years. Although I would not expect him to be replaced be someone whose views on Ukraine are markedly different: he fits solidly in the Russian tradition.

Yes but the USA has some s in Congress and even in the WH around that age. But yes we can hope Putin will be gone, and hope he will be replaced by someone with a different outlook on the World. However, based on the Russians in the past or currently … IMO they can't be trusted …

From past arguments I've had with him I honestly wonder if it's a propaganda bot.

Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and realize that he is Russian. And a proud Russian at that. At least that's what his tmp profile says.
Certainly he is entitled to his opinion. Which opinion, I happen to disagree with. 🤷
But to call him a "propaganda bot" begs the question that Russia thinks that TMP is big enough, and important enough to merit full time surveillance. I think not, forgive me Dear Editor! 😳

He is probably as much a Propaganda bot as posters from nearby countries afraid of a Kremlin revanchist invasion. As much as our Usual Suspects here on TMP willing to argue with him.

Hell, I've been known to disagree with Current POTUS about policy, and my opinion hardly qualifies me as a bot. 🤖 I'm actually a loose cannon who decries the "give them enough to stay in the war getting countless civilians killed, but enough to win" policy.

…but NOT enough to win.

Tango01, we won because the world has ceased to be unipolar forever and, I hope, will cease to be Western-centric; because the "countries of the global South" have refused to submit to the dictatorship of the West and are creating their own, alternative trade and financial system (BRICS); because Russia has stopped exporting capital and has begun investing money in its own economy – these are just a few of the achievements. The fate of Ukraine and its territory is the tenth thing. Previously, Russia did not want to accept even the Donetsk and Luhansk regions into its composition, despite the referendums held there back in 2014. Russia would have been satisfied with a neutral Ukraine without militant nationalism. But it was the West that prevented this from happening.

Dragon Gunner, everything has its price… The intervention on the Maidan led to the split of Ukraine and many years of interethnic confrontation. Ukraine's refusal and the lies of European leaders when concluding the Minsk agreements led to the current conflict. The ban on the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in 2022 has put the world on the brink of a nuclear catastrophe… A big river starts with a small stream.

And by the way, I believe that you have been brainwashed by your propaganda))) Because you don't see big and long-overdue problems beyond the small ones. You don't want to see…

Nine pound round, you don't take into account that a lot can change in Ukraine during this time. The poison of Western propaganda will dissipate.

Ask Sho Boki who I am. We have known each other for a long time on the Russian wargaming forum)))

Yes indeed.
How dare Ukraine have national interests that clash with those of its benevolent overlord?

BRICS is a yoke… I feel very proud that our President has renounced inmediatelly belonging to that unpresentable group… (although our flag is on the banknote that Putin showed… another of his lies)… not only is it made up of the most detestable people in the civilized world but China and India hate each other and at any moment they will confront in a bellicose manner… who knows what spurious "business" these representatives are doing among themselves… not even South Africa could guarantee Putin's safety when they met in Johannesburg the last time…The only country that is saved is Brazil… since thanks to them the murderous tyrant Maduro and his gang of unpresentable people could not even access that little group… I hope that soon there will be a change of president in our sister country that acts like ours…

About the benefits of the Russian economy… how is the ruble?… all the economic variants that one can analyze are bad or very bad for your people…

I would really appreciate knowing what other great benefits your dirty war of invasion has brought… let's not even talk (as always) about the almost million casualties you suffered… after all, human beings don't count in Mother Russia… they are just disposable numbers…

Neutral Ukraine = Defenseless Ukraine

It would have been much easier to invade and occupy it… a big mistake was to trust the Russian word by handing over nuclear weapons, bombers, etc…

Armand

"Ask Sho Boki who I am. We have known each other for a long time on the Russian wargaming forum. "

Cuprum is russian miniature manufacturer from Barnaul. Communist.
He is not brainwashed but presents his dreams as reality. Brainwashed (by Cuprum and alike) are the rest of population.

Like Cuprum here I was on russian wargame forums – voice from outside.
The difference is that all my historical and political posts there were deleted.
Long time I warned them that they are on a downward spiral, until they crossed the Rubicon and started war in Ukraine in 2014. Then I stopped worrying, the fate of Russia was decided and hopefully the US will not be such a fool again to save their asses as usual. I predicted them the dollar-ruble exchange rate 1:100 and 1:200 etc. And if all goes as predicted, on next year the sanctions and war started to be really palpable by common russians for the first time. Until then and even further we will hear from Cuprum how useful all these sufferings are for russian economy. :-)

John the OFM, isn't it the West that decides who should have what national interests? Judging by the history of the last thirty years, it has been so. Look at today's Georgia. As soon as they decided that they didn't want to follow the path of the West, sanctions were immediately organized against them and all kinds of pressure was put on them, and your ambassadors began to incite and support street protests. But this is some kind of small Georgia – its national interests are to submit to pressure from the West?

BRICS are parallel financial and legal institutions that are throwing off the yoke of the West from other countries. It will deprive it of the ability to dictate its terms to others. No more sanctions, no more pressure. It does not impose any other restrictions on its participants. It is not a military bloc or a cortel. What a brilliant idea. This is what is called by the unpleasant word "healthy competition")))

Everything is fine with the ruble, given the current circumstances. All that the low ruble exchange rate affects is the rise in the price of imported goods. But income from foreign trade is growing. So this is only a temporary inconvenience. Victory in war quickly compensates for the losses incurred.

The million losses of the Russians exist only in the propaganda of Ukraine and the West))) And I have already listed the main gain from the war above – I see no point in repeating myself.

Neutral Ukraine is a prosperous Ukraine, which has the opportunity to enjoy benefits from both sides, from the West and from Russia. Kazakhstan, for example, is neutral. Three million Russians live on its territory (15% of the country's population), and they live compactly, mainly in regions adjacent to Russia. And they do not have nuclear weapons. No one has conquered Kazakhstan, no one has installed a pro-Russian government there and no one is oppressed in any way. On the contrary, quite recently, during an attempt to carry out a coup after the elections, troops from several former Soviet countries, including Russian ones, helped the legitimate government restore order in the country. And they left. But this is only because the West has not yet managed to bring nationalists to power there who would start a war with the Russians living in Kazakhstan, as was done in Ukraine.

Kazakhstan is a good example. It was as defenseless as Ukraine.
Putin needed a small victorious war and he chose between Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Kazakhstan, having learned from this, quickly moved under the protection of China and Russia no longer poses a threat to it. On the contrary, Putin is often ridiculed by the Kazakh president.

Protection of China? And how does it manifest itself? Did the Chinese send their military to train the Kazakh army? Do they supply them with their weapons? Did the Kazakhs build a wall on the border with Russia? Maybe they deployed Chinese nuclear weapons or the Chinese army? Did they forbid Kazakhstan to trade with Russia?
How have relations between Kazakhstan and Russia deteriorated? Give facts, not fantasies of propagandists and nationalists)))

Russia is in fact colony of China by their own choice. Completely dependent.
No army need to protect the Kazakhstan. Overlords from China tells to Putin what to do or not to do.

China was and is the natural enemy of Russia. But Putin chose to become China's vassal. Russias fate is decided.

Oh, China's colony))) And how does this manifest itself? Maybe China gives us money in the same way that Europe supports the Baltics? Maybe China appoints our leaders? Maybe most of our industry and resources belong to the Chinese? Maybe we are forced to rely on the Chinese army?
What is the dependence?))) That you would like to think so?)))

And I am not a communist. I am rather a socialist, because I consider the arrival of socialism and communism logical, not by revolutionary, but by evolutionary means. Moreover, the path of Western socialists causes me shock and disgust on many issues. So I'm a rather strange socialist for you – a conservative)))

Your posts on the "Battlefield" forum were deleted, like all others containing political overtones, after the corresponding ban. And they did it in vain – after the ban the forum simply died. All visitors went to social networks.

Why China must to all that? China is very happy with current situation, Russia voluntarily chose to be their vassal. Yes, Russia hopes and expects China to give it money, but what good would that do for China? China takes everything it needs almost for free (like Putin's Muscovy from his Siberian colonies). And sells the lion's share of the goods going to Russia, at double the price.

As you remember, Russia gambled on China attacking Taiwan before Russia. Hoping that then the war wouldn't reach Russia. Just as Stalin hoped that Hitler would get bogged down in a war with the West.

So there are no real signs of colonial dependence that I asked about? Thank you, your answer was complete)))
And keep all the speculations and emotions to yourself – they have no bearing on the matter. Politics is business. Only money and prospects matter… Well, unless you trade emotions)))

You said that Putin needs a "small victorious war." No. This is only necessary when the electorate's support drops sharply. Putin's rating has always been high and will remain so if he does not give in to this war.
So Putin needed something else. Territory? Russia has a huge amount of undeveloped territory. Resources? Such an assumption is simply ridiculous. Food, water – everything in abundance.
Money? 300 billion Russian money is frozen in your banks – and this has not affected the Russian economy in any way – Russia has been exporting its money to the West for thirty years (including due to the lack of inflow of Russian money and resources, the European economy is now collapsing). Now it is spending it on developing its own market.
So what did he need? The development of Russia and its corresponding place among the great powers. And the desire of the West was to prevent a new rise of Russia and to restrain its development in every possible way. Including military pressure, small wars along the perimeter of Russian borders. A completely understandable desire, by the way. Ukraine is just an episode in this struggle, on which the West has placed its bets… The big game never ends)))

"So there are no real signs of colonial dependence that I asked about?"

Exactly. Because these are not signs of colonial dependence, you asked, but you asked the exact opposite. You said: "Maybe China gives us money in the same way that Europe supports the Baltics?" If China gives you money like Europe supports the Baltics then you are not a colony. It is colonies who give their money to metropol, like Yakutia give their diamonds to Muscovy and Muscovy pays tribute to Chechnya.

"Maybe most of our industry and resources belong to the Chinese?"
You must have your industry to pay tributes to Chechnya and in future to Ukraine. To China you give your resources practically free. Also they have their own old territories with needed resources in todays Russia without any war, as voluntarily rented to them by Putin until Russia will exist. And you buy majority of your goods from China by double price. So yes, you belong to the Chinese.

"Maybe we are forced to rely on the Chinese army?"
You want it, but China, as overlord, don't care about you and you are forced to rely on the North Korean army, another Chinese puppet.

So yes, my answer was complete, you are Chinese puppets.

"And keep all the speculations and emotions to yourself"
Don't tell me what I must to do and I don't tell you where you must to go.
Also you may follow your own words.. about your wet dreams and speculations about BRICS, Georgia etc. :-)

"So Putin needed something else."
Putin wants all. This is the nature of empire and the reason why Russia must cease to be an empire.

I hope you at least understand yourself what you wrote about what colonial dependence looks like. I don't understand…)))

I hope you can at least back up your statements with figures from reliable sources?)))

Russia will cease to be an empire (in your understanding of the word) when the US ceases to be an empire))) I think it will happen… Never)))

Our conversation is again turning into empty words without any facts. I am bored and sorry for the wasted time. We will continue the conversation when you have some figures or documents to prove your words.

"I don't understand"

But of course. It's completely understandable that you don't understand anything.
You are not allowed to understand as otherwise you can't spread your baseless propaganda. :-)

"when the US ceases to be an empire"
This happened a long time ago. Empires are built on expansion and the conquest of new territories. The US hasn't done that for a long time, but Russia can't do without it. So the US is not an empire. At the same time, Russia has already launched at least 5 wars of conquest during its 33 years of independence. One war of conquest per every 6 years.

I understand numbers and documents. Everything else is just idle talk)))

And I gave you the numbers.
Russia: One war of conquest per every 6 years.
US: Does anyone remember the last time the US conquered anything?

Who did Russia conquer?

John the OFM, isn't it the West that decides who should have what national interests?

Oh, I'm sorry. So, you want Russia to decide?

"Who did Russia conquer?"

Territory from Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine..
Some says, that also Moldova and Azerbaijan. Plus colonial wars in Syria and Africa.

Some very interesting comments from all sides. And we all know this is a very complicated topic.

Chechnya is a generally recognized territory of Russia. No one has ever recognized it as a separate state. A lie.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia are not part of Russia now, they have not been conquered. These states have never historically been part of Georgia, until they were administratively brought there during the Soviet era. These peoples will never accept Georgian power, they are historical opponents. It's like the Kurds in Turkey. Do you want their eternal blood? By the way, pro-Russian President Bzhania was removed from power in Abkhazia last week with the help of street protests. Russia did not interfere:
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Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. The conflict is between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed territories of Nagorno-Karabakh. There are Russian peacekeepers there, but they did not interfere in the conflict, only evacuating civilians. They would have intervened only in the event of an attack on the recognized territory of Armenia, which did not happen.

Transnistria is not part of Russia. Russian troops (recruited, by the way, from local residents) guard huge military warehouses left over from Soviet times. There are very few of these troops there. The conflict is between Moldovans who want to join Romania and other peoples who do not want this (Russians, Russian-speaking Moldovans, Ukrainians and Gagauz (Orthodox Turks)). By the way, Ukrainians are the majority there. And when there was a hot conflict, Ukrainian nationalists actively fought against the Moldovans. Together with the Russians.

These are not Russian conquests, these are peacekeeping missions to stop the bloodshed.

Russia is present in Syria and African countries exclusively at the invitation of their recognized governments. Western troops that fight abroad, especially without the invitation of local governments, are waging colonial wars? I guessed)))

John the OFM, do you see any Russian interference in the events happening in Georgia now? But Western interference is just huge and open.

"The intervention on the Maidan led to the split of Ukraine and many years of interethnic confrontation."-Cuprum

I disagree Russian tantrum and invasion divided the country. Russia cannot come to grip with the fact most of it's neighbors want to be part of NATO or the EU.

"I believe that you have been brainwashed by your propaganda))"-Cuprum

Possibly I could be wrong.

"Because you don't see big and long-overdue problems beyond the small ones. You don't want to see…"

Because I don't accept your explanations or Russian propaganda does not mean I am not willing to see or listen to another point of view. I haven't stifled you. I find the Russian cult of victimization fascinating when they are clearly the aggressor and their neighbors hate and fear them with good cause.

Cuprum I never hear you take responsibility for why people dislike Russia and want to be part of the EU and NATO. Can you engage in some serious self reflection for what your country has done? All I ever hear is excuses…

Win or lose Russia will reprise it's role as Mordor. A sick, evil country too be walled off and treated like the rabid animal it is.

Dragon Gunner, well, why – there is Hungary, which cooperates quite well with Russia. There is Turkey. And most countries that do not belong to the Western worldview have no concerns about Russia. Including Asian countries that were previously part of the USSR. It would be more logical to ask why those countries that are in the orbit of Western influence immediately become opponents of Russia? Maybe you are simply turning the problem upside down?

Hungary wants your fuel that is all.

Turkey is a part of NATO…

Asian countries that were part of USSR suffer military intervention from Russia. It sends a message to the ones you haven't invaded, Love Mother Russia or they will kill you…

"It would be more logical to ask why those countries that are in the orbit of Western influence immediately become opponents of Russia?"-Cuprum

Agreed, answer your own question.

Dragon Gunner + 1

Armand