"Analysis of the situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war" Topic

Real situation. It will hurt!)))

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The only thing that hurts here… is the truth… enjoy your meal with that Russian salad… if that's what you see over there… I understand that you continue with this senseless war… but it doesn't matter… according to our friend Cuprum 2, it ends next month…

Armand

"Analysis of the situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war"

To sum it all up:
So much useless death & destruction. There are no winners…

There was a time that your leader was compared to Hitler. Now with the Norks coming in to bail you out he seems more like a certain Italian dictator!

It's time to stop lying, Tango. I said the hot part of this war will end by the New Year, or at most by spring)))

The guy whose video I linked to did an analysis using WESTERN and UKRAINIAN sources. Not Russian ones. He just put 2+2 together… One of the few who can analyze and decided to voice reality publicly. But soon everyone will be talking about it.
You can continue to stay in your country of yellow-blue ponies for as long as you like)))

Zephyr1, Russia's victory, but it's not yet clear how many of the stated goals will be achieved.
The main global one: the destruction of the unipolar world – has already been achieved.

Col Durnford, we don't need saving – we're doing well. The Koreans are a demonstration for NATO that World War III is on the verge of yours. Want to take part? Welcome!

And finally show me the Koreans at the front))) So far I only hear empty chatter)))

How Russian Motorbike Squads Changed Battlefield Tactics in Ukraine:

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Russians Lost 41 000 Soldiers in October, 2024 | Meat Assaults Intensify

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Armand

Russian Economy: Ruble is Burning

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Armand

Blue-Yellow ponies))) Blue-Yellow ponies)))
Don't tell me about the problems in Russia. I live here. After our problems in the 90s, any problems we have today are tiny ;-)
In Russia, the problem of finding skilled workers and engineers in the required quantity is a problem. It is necessary to urgently increase the number of relevant jobs. May there be more such problems)))

Some Russian general has announced that the offensive is concluding for the year, due to the muddy season coming soon.

F-16s are sniping at the Su-24s, forcing them to engage at longer ranges.

Seems Russia is in stagflation and on the brink of a major recession.

North Koreans and Russians are firing at each other.

Why Do Russians Never Smile?

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Armand

Col Durnford, we don't need saving – we're doing well. The Koreans are a demonstration for NATO that World War III is on the verge of yours. Want to take part? Welcome!

All of the ruscum fault, you invaded a sovereign country on the same trumped up excuse that another bunch of fascists used in 1939. Everything will slow down now because of the weather not a great "Soviet" victory, good luck with your new allies!

Tally Ho!

Editor in Chief Bill, you have collected all possible Ukrainian gossip))). The autumn thaw season is already ending – the time of frosts is coming. Frosts are hard ground, the traditional time for Russian advances.

F-16s do not approach the front. All they can do is hunt for Russian drones and missiles deep in the rear. The range of Russian air-to-air missiles far exceeds the range of missiles available to Ukraine, and their pilots have barely mastered the new aircraft. An easy target.

Tell the IMF about your forecasts for the Russian economy. And we will laugh together)))

Tango01, in Russian culture, a smile must be earned. It's not common for us to smile at everyone. A smile = trust.
By the way, Ukrainians have the same attitude.

nickinsomerset, thank you! We always need luck)))

Great channel. I'm very glad I found it. The guy works professionally, with a lot of involved video material, sources of information and maps. These are almost ready-made game scenarios for wargames and a visual aid for army officers.

Russia's MASTERPIECE Vuhledar in Operational Encirclement:

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Interesting previous comments on the F16s. The F16AM and BMs were a good choice to supply to Ukraine. They are 1980s tech with a 1990s upgrade, which means the pilots do not need to make a huge leap to platforms such as the F22/35. There are also over 2000 in service around the world, which gives a long term supply source. Incidentally they are often being replaced by F35s in the NATO countries donating them, in turn increasing NATO capability.

Nevertheless only a vey few have been supplied so far, I want to say less than 10, but it may be more by now. This means that they are outnumbered by Russian platforms by over 10 to 1. Going on the offensive against Russian aircraft is not going to be a great idea with these numbers. They have therefore been used primarily for city defense against missiles and drones – a strategic mission.
The other factor to remember is that it typically takes 18 months to train a pilot on the F16. We are about 6 months into that. Using them in safer missions while pilots gain experience is a sound tactical choice. As the experience increases they may be used in more offensive roles.

On the missile range. Prior to the F16 deployment the Russians had the advantage in both missile range, radar range and fire and forget missiles. As F16 numbers and training increases and with deployment of AIM9X and AIM120 (D?) missiles and the APG66 V2A radars, that balance is changing.
There is also going to be the deployment of a couple of SAAB340 radar aircraft which is going to expand the situational awareness of the F16s. It will be interesting to see how this works out (note the Russian AWACS systems have not faired well, so it will be interesting).

Also the F16s do allow for greater deployment of the AGM88 HARM, which will also change the dynamic for the Russian SAM systems.

So to summarize, the F16s are not going to have a major impact short term. However, as their numbers increase, the pilots gain experience and the AIM9X, AIM120D and AGM88HARM arrive in increasing numbers, I would expect that their impact becomes far more pronounced. Getting through to the wet season is going to be critical, as once the wet season is over, I would expect a far more potent F16 capability to emerge.

Even if Russia prevails (which I originally thought they would quite quickly- boy was I wrong), is anywhere near the price Russia has paid?

Makes no sense to me.

Tom

@Garryowen – you must think if it in these terms, not conventional warfare. The West made it too personal, they made it all about Putin and about removing Putin -- so this is a regime survival war that Putin CANNOT LOSE or he falls.

1. Putin thought he could grab Ukraine in a blitzkrieg. He failed.

2. Putin wanted out before it registered on Russian public awareness.

3. In March of 2022 both Russia and Ukraine were in Peace talks brokered by Israel and Turkey. The terms have not been disclosed, but probably something involving the status of the Donbas and Crimea. Both sides would declare victory -- Putin would claim he spanked the Ukrainian Nazis, and Zelensky would claim he stopped an Russian invasion.

4. BIDEN KILLED THE PEACE DEAL

5. The NATO countries embarked on a deep personalization of the war against Putin, which makes ZERO sense if you ever want peace later on. War Criminal! Nazi! Hitler! Existential Threat to the World! He wants Europe Next! The propaganda was loud and overwhelming, and economic sanctions were levied against Putin.

6. Further Cease Fire/Peace talk overtures were killed by Boris Johnson and EU politicians.

7. The CIA and EU attempted the Wagner Coup to oust and kill Putin.

So at the end of the day this war will only end when Putin sees it in his regime survival interests to do so. Since he's dictator he can keep he "eye on the ball" and not defocus. Since he's less concerned about China than about US/NATO which has blown up Russian sovereign assets (Nordstream) and aided an enemy in a time of war, he's been able to at some level replace trade ties with Europe with trade ties with China. China also gets more Russian oil, and they get to sell old ammo and tanks to Russia. China has dragged it's little Axis into the fight, Iran and North Korea -- setting the stage for WW3.

So that's where we are…

Oh -- and as a general observation, from an historical standpoint this is to be expected. In most of Russia's wars it performs very poorly in the beginning since its officer cadre is riddled with corrupt political cronies who are only good at climbing the ladder of power, not warfighting. Then usually a 2 year period, most of these leaders die or are replaced by more serious minded officers with battlefield experience, who apply lessons learned under fire to the war and the tide of battle reverses. For example, the deadly failures of WW2 from Barbarossa to the Gates of Stalingrad purged all the political incompetents, setting the stage for future victory. This may be what we're seeing now.

@sbminisperson

What's this about CIA/EU/Wagner?
What's this about US/NATO and Nordstream gas pipeline?

Where is the evidence for any of what you've written? If you don't have any evidence then please add a modifier to your statements like 'perhaps' or 'maybe' otherwise people could take them as facts.

PS Yer doom-stew looks (and probably tastes) like scab-and-matter-custard.

As we know as students of history … The truth comes in many forms, flavors, colors, etc. Maybe even more than 50 shades of grey …

It would seem the truth is in the eye of the beholder …

Anytime or place you need North Korean meat puppets, things have gone seriously wrong.

Inflation in excess of 7%.

Your best friends are China, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea which is fairly analogous to Nazi Germany being allied to Mussolini's Italy and Tojo's Imperial Japan with Peron in Argentina playing the Victor Orban role on the sidelines.

McKinstry … good example about that xxxx of Peron…

Armand

PS Yer doom-stew looks (and probably tastes) like scab-and-matter-custard.

If you think this war would EVER end in anything except a negotiated settlement, well, you've been consuming too much propaganda. And the longer this war drags on, the higher the chance of escalation, mishaps, mistakes and disaster. We've got people rightly comparing the alliance that Western misteps helped create as a new Axis -- we have North Korean troops fighting Ukraine, China and Iran supplying weapons and drones to Russia.

WTH other warning signs to WW3 do you need to see before there ain't no more offramps???

PS – Orban, btw, does NOT deserve to be included in your little Axis fantasies -- you're just angry that he rejects the EU's mass immigration inundation and cautions about continued escalating war.

McKinstry, "bad boys" are always ready to fight, and "good boys" are often not ready to enter into a fight for their own interests, especially if they are not sure of the end result. The "Global South" is waiting and waiting to see how the big fight between the "bad boys" on both sides of the conflict will end. But he will definitely show up to get his piece of the pie if "his bad boys" win. And if not, then it will be possible to pretend that they have nothing to do with it – it is only Russia and other "bad boys" … You must have already noticed that Russia is indirectly supported, for various reasons, by many countries … And each has its own interest in Russia's victory.

In fact, this conflict has already exhausted itself. Now, in my opinion, there will be a search for acceptable compromises to end the war. And this will be difficult, since Western diplomacy turned out to be… a sack of shit))) You spat on other people's interests and started a war, incorrectly assessing the enemy's potential. Now any possible trust between the parties has been destroyed…
And ahead is a very possible conflict for Taiwan, in which the US will have to participate directly, and not through proxies…

Garryowen, it was worth it without any doubt. It was a risky game, but now Russia has again emerged as one of the leading countries in the world, has relaunched its productive economy (no longer a gas station), demonstrated to the West that any military action against Russia will lead to great costs, destroyed the unipolar world and the system that allowed The West wants to put economic leverage on other countries. After the final formation of BRICS, your sanctions will not be scary to anyone – the world will breathe freely)))

It is WWIII already, with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, and radial Islam on one side and The West on the other side.; with Israel and Ukraine doing most of the fighting on the Western side so far.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek
Bunker Talk blog

"You spat on other people's interests and started a war,"-Cuprum2

Cuprum that is a bold faced lie!

"incorrectly assessing the enemy's potential."-Cuprum2

On this we agree, Russia is a joke!

It was a risky game, but now Russia has again emerged as one of the leading countries in the world

Nah -- Putin has proved that he's the modern Mussolini, incapable of handily defeating a poorer, smaller, weaker neighbor. The Italian military foundered on the hills of Greece and had to be saved by the Wehrmacht. In Russia's case it looks like it needs the help of North Korean cannon-fodder. Time to end this before it gets worse.

No, this is a war where Russia fights with one hand. Putin never dared to shoot down NATO satellites and reconnaissance aircraft that are directly involved in the conflict. If this had been done, the war would have looked completely different…
Are you calling Ukraine a weak country? The second largest country in Europe and the second largest army in Europe))). All wars after World War II that the West waged were clearly against a weaker enemy. The last time the West's collective Mussolini fled Afghanistan and could do nothing about the Houthis who blocked shipping in the Red Sea. Poor, poor Western collective Mussolini)))

Bunkermeister, radical Islam is something that the West constantly cultivates and supports. But it is a bad dog that constantly bites the hand that gives it… And you learn nothing and continue to play with it time after time.

Iran is not radical Islam. At least not more radical than NATO member Türkiye. Persia is one of the most ancient civilizations on our planet. They fought against the Greeks before our era… Yes, it is in many ways alien to European civilization, but Persia will always exist.

A bit of humor. The Tsar of Ukrosparta Zelensky goes to war and says goodbye to his mother, the USA. A prophetic video
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Iran is not radical Islam.

Iran IS the heart of radical Islam! Iran promotes radical Sharia law and has used its proxies – the three "Hs" – Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, to war on its foes. And it has bitten Russia. Iran sent aid and support to the Chechens, helped train separatists -- Iran's support made the Beslan massacre possible, and enabled many of the deadliest attacks on Russian civilians.

Putin shooting down Western ISR assets would directly involve a conventional war with the West that Russia would lose in two weeks. Russia couldn't beat Ukraine, has a Navy proven to be less than incompetent and an Airforce only merely incompetent coupled with an Army good at trading horrific losses for minimal gains. Absent the nuclear shield which is simply a zero sum game in which the first use initiates the death of most of the planet fairly quickly, Russia is a third world nation with a single overdeveloped nuclear arsenal and a still centralized autocratic and kleptocratic economic system legitimately unable to compete with the Western Democracies. Russia will continue down the path to becoming a junior partner client state of the PRC unless the Russian people throw off the autocratic shackles however unlikely an event.

Conflating the Iranian mullahs theocratic dictatorship with Persia is a reach. The unpopular repressive regime is not representative of the Iranian people and does not enjoy popular support. As with many autocratic systems, most of the Mullahs focus and their IRGC stooges as well is stirring up external grudges to distract from failing internal policies.

McKinstry + 3

Armand

SBminisguy is a lie. Chechen separatists were supported by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Lebanon and Jordan. In addition, on a significantly smaller scale: Georgia, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey.
Yes – Iran is a theocratic state. But you collaborated for many years, for example, with the Saudis – and nothing stopped you.
And even if it were true, it is already in the past. Today, even Chechens fight with Russians in the same formation against a common enemy. We need to look to the future, not to the past. The Western monster can only be driven into its lair by uniting.

McKinstry, the current form of government is just a moment between the past and the future. It will change many times again. If the country survives – that's the main thing.
The fact that you continue to underestimate Russia is great))) I hope most of your politicians will continue to think so.

By the way, are you aware that Iran is actively defending Armenia (a Christian state) against Azerbaijan (an Islamic state)? This is a complicated policy, where Islam is just one of the tools. It's hard for me to imagine a jihadist coming to the defense of Christians…

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Yes – Iran is a theocratic state. But you collaborated for many years, for example, with the Saudis – and nothing stopped you.

Not sure what this means. The Saudi's are a relatively new nation state that is really a product of the post-colonial mess after WW1 and are simply a near feudal Monarchy with a theocratic veneer and are a fairly stable Monarchical Oil Company at that with a very low population and no real national identity beyond Arab solidarity whereas you are extolling the virtues of the ancient Persians who, despite the very temporary rule of the Mullahs, show every sign of a restive populace.

the current form of government is just a moment between the past and the future. It will change many times again. If the country survives – that's the main thing.

In reverse order, of course Russia will survive in that it is not under threat as a nation state absent doing something far stupider than invading Ukraine and no existential territorial threat or enemy exists. Nobody wants Russian territory except possibly China. As to forms of government, while the ideological veneer can vary, with the rare and transitory exceptions of the momentary Kerensky interlude and to a lesser extent Yeltsin and early Putin, when has Russia ever been anything but an autocracy?

McKinstry is a pointless conversation… I already wrote above – it takes your missiles 5 minutes to fly from Ukrainian territory to Russian military bases. It takes Russian missiles 25-30 minutes to reach US territory. You strike first – and the few that can take off will be attacked in flight for half an hour. This makes any talk pointless.
For Russia, this is the Cuban Missile Crisis. There will be no NATO bases on Ukrainian territory. If for this it is necessary to destroy Ukraine, then so be it. If you are ready to escalate the situation until a global nuclear war begins, well… We will all die together.

And all the empty promises that NATO will not attack anyone are worth nothing. NATO promised not to advance to the East after the collapse of the USSR, and now it is not only at the borders of the former USSR – it is on its territory. Try to look at this through the eyes of Russians, who have centuries of experience in Western invasions of Russia.

not only at the borders of the former USSR – it is on its territory.

Try to look at this through the eyes of Russians, who have centuries of experience in Western invasions of Russia.

Those same former recipients of Russian colonialism such as Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and the Czech Republic among others all feared the Russians based on that same centuries of history.

Russia also had, as allies, many of NATO's founding members in fighting those same invaders and more to the current point, NATO has not, ever, expressed the desire for Russian territory and NATO, by charter, exists only as a defensive alliance and no state may invoke the NATO charter except when attacked. Russian official media and government representatives have repeatedly made claims to the territory of others based on dubious history and it is Russian behavior towards many of the NATO states including among the latest, Finland and Sweden that has driven your neighbors to seek protection rather than any desire to attack Russia. Can you view the drive for Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia to seek protection as anything but simple self-preservation? How is Poland any different than Ukraine as a sovereign Nation free to associate as they wish. The Cuban Missile Crisis was solved by the US pulling missiles from Turkey in return for Cuban IRBM's not happening. Ukraine was not in line for NATO membership nor has any NATO member ever stated a desire for one inch of Russian territory. The nuclear balance of terror per se precludes nuclear armed states from the pre-nuclear concept of invasion and capture as no first strike doctrine ever worked out as practical in a world where ballistic missile subs and mobile launchers guarantee mutual suicide where the winners and losers look the same.

Also regarding history, the West has not had good results in trusting autocracy and as I stated, historically Russia seems remarkably consistent with autocracy to the detriment of both her neighbors and her own people. I believe between the USSR and the Czars, Russians rulers have been as much danger to their own citizens as the bulk of invaders and have shared that history with neighbors and past subjects who have an equally jaundiced set of memories driving them to seek protection not territory.

Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania do not have a centuries-old history – these countries appeared only as a result of the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917.

Finland is a former Swedish province, the statehood of which was created by Russia, and the independence of which was given by Lenin. Without any conditions. However – as well as Poland. For which these countries immediately thanked Soviet Russia with aggression.
Czechoslovakia, by the way, also appeared as a result of the First World War, was an ally of Russia before the beginning of the Second World War. In Russian-Czech relations, there was only one episode when the Czech Republic was subjected to forceful action not only by Russia, but by many Warsaw Pact countries. Where could centuries-old fears come from?
Swedes… The last time Russia fought with Sweden was at the beginning of the 19th century. And it was by no means a war of conquest.
The Swedes and Finns simply assumed Russia would be defeated and wanted to participate in the division of the pie – I don't see any other reasons for them to join NATO)))

The desire to join NATO is written into a separate clause in the Ukrainian Constitution. It's a pity you're not aware of it. And Zelensky spoke about the desire to create nuclear weapons on the eve of the war – this, by the way, is one of the reasons why Russia attacked. A nuclear Ukraine on our borders is not interesting to us.

EU and US officials have repeatedly publicly stated their desire to divide Russia into several insignificant states.

NATO is an aggressive military bloc that has repeatedly taken part in wars far beyond its borders.

Leave it to the Russian people to decide what form of government they need. Who gave you the right to decide what is good and what is not in another state? Your "export of democracy" has already destroyed millions of people in various conflicts and artificial revolutions. Your hypocrisy is clearly visible even in the conflict in Gaza…

We have discussed all this many times… A waste of time.
Having killed the "red dragon", you yourself turned into a dragon. No better than the previous one.

I continue to enjoy the excellent reviews of military operations from the HistoryLegends channel. The beginning of the Ukrainian Kursk operation. Step by step.
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Hopefully with the election results, there will soon be a diplomatic end of this war, the useless deaths on both sides will end, and the new U.S. policy makers will start focusing on more dangerous threats to our nation.

This would be wonderful, but I am afraid that, thanks to previous blatant political stupidity, this conflict has been accelerated to a very high degree of irreconcilability… For example, will Trump meet with Putin, who has been officially named as a criminal and a warrant has been issued for his arrest? Will Putin talk to Zelensky, whose presidential powers have long since ended and the agreements concluded with him are not worth the paper they are written on?… And there are a lot of such nuances. It will now be extremely difficult to stop this war diplomatically.

When the war stops that's when the hard part will begin for Russia. There will be an insurgency like Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam and Honduras. Then the gloves will come off and the real blood shed will begin. With Russia being so close to the border of Ukraine their will be more blood spilled in your homeland. I feel sorry for you and your country Cuprum……. The real war will start when this invasion ends. I hope you don't live near Moscow…..

History Legends is a joke of an analysist.

Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania do not have a centuries-old history – these countries appeared only as a result of the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917.

LOL sure. The Russian man's burden, am I right?

BTW how do you feel about Trumps suggest of a buffer in Ukraine policed by NATO troops?

Not sure that suggestion is reality based…a bargaining chip maybe. Zelensky has a mortal enemy and a friend who doesn't like him. Time to find a safe exile country somewhere. A settlement seems likely next year.

"BTW how do you feel about Trumps suggest of a buffer in Ukraine policed by NATO troops?"

So I looked at the stories, mostly from what can be said to be from anti-Trump sources. But then, that is what the biased search engine of Google gives you. 😉

I did find a Stars and Stripes as well.

So
1) This is one of multiple plans. But obviously the one the MSM grabbed. 😉
2) It is UN troops proposed, not NATO.. although these troops countries might also be part of NATO as well.
3) It would cede Ukrainian territory, but in exchange increase US munitions to strengthen the Ukrainian Army and border.
4) the information did not come directly from Trump, but "unnamed" aids.

The Europeans say they cannot support the Ukraine without US help. 🤔But they say that this threatens all of Europe and keep talking about war. 🤔
You need the US, but you can fight a war without the US? Am I reading that wrong?

I think I said here or elsewhere, I believe the Ukraine will unfortunately have to cede land again for peace. Otherwise the countries destruction will continue, along with more Ukrainians dying. In the long run, with a worse final outcome for the Ukrainians. Yes, more Russians will die, along with their allies, as well. But the Russians and Koreans have a much larger supply of cannon fodder. Both sides will lose material, but that only weakens both sides.

I believe the Russians should have to "up front" contribute large sums of money to rebuild the Ukraine as part of any deal.

I will be critical of Trump here. He should have never said he could end this on day 1. Not a smart statement.

Subject: Trump mulls Ukraine peace plan: British troops patrolling an 800-mile buffer zone


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Subject: Trump camp's ideas for Ukraine cease-fire include long delay in NATO bid, land concessions | Stars and Stripes


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Ukraine, Europe, and the Art of the Deal

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Steve, I doubt the "worst case" scenario heavily.

""demilitarizing" or "neutralizing" the rest of Ukraine, and having a light or no mechanism to enforce the deal. "

I do see the land loss. I believe the west, including the US will strengthen the Ukrainian military. I'm hoping Russia is forced to pay (ahead of time) to rebuild the Ukraine as part of the deal.

I don't see Russia accepting the crimea as anything but theirs now. I especially cannot see them accepting the Ukraine as part of NATO. To be honest, I would not want that (dark shades of WW2 and Poland <shivers>).

This article does explain the futility and ultimate failure of the current policy.

We all hate (well with the exception of one possible person on TMP) the Russians rewarded for the invasion. But I see no peace otherwise.

If others do, feel free to explain how that happens without WW3 or the unlikely death of Putin (unless you know of active Ukrainian hit squads in Moscow).

Putin really can't get away with all the death and destruction he and his supporters caused for no good reason. E.g. imperialism …

We can no longer really expect to depend on the UN. AFAIK all of NATO is in the UN. So we may have a conflict of interest ?

Unfortunately, Putin may have to be allowed to keep the Donbas and Crimea. To end the killing. He is a war criminal but is going to get away with everything he put in motion. Some might say pushing the world to the brink of WWIII …

Legion

"Unfortunately, Putin may have to be allowed to keep the Donbas and Crimea. To end the killing. He is a war criminal but is going to get away with everything he put in motion. Some might say pushing the world to the brink of WWIII …"

In reality, yes probably the sad truth.

Hmmm he doesn't sold like the Nazi Ogre the MSM painted him as.

So he has been talking to Zelensky for months now and Zelensky is reassured. Not quite the story I'd been hearing. But I never imbibe too heavily in the MSM's narratives. They seem to have a lot of ❄️ in their newsrooms and papers anymore.

Sort of lost faith in them in the last 10 years.

But we will see.

Subject: Elon Musk joined Trump's call with Zelensky


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