"Just a thought about who really has nukes" Topic

Is it possible that some countries who are not usually thought to have nukes, really do?
That there is a really top secret program in place?
I'm not talking about Israel. "Everyone knows" that Israel is well armed, despite grinning denials.
Iran has been "two months away" for years.

Would it be feasible for South Korea to have top secret nukes to counter North Korea? Would it be feasible for them to let North Korea know through back channels?
What about Taiwan? Japan?

Is it possible that some countries who are not usually thought to have nukes, really do?
That there is a really top secret program in place?
I'm not talking about Israel. "Everyone knows" that Israel is well armed, despite grinning denials.
Iran has been "two months away" for years.

Would it be feasible for South Korea to have top secret nukes to counter North Korea? Would it be feasible for them to let North Korea know through back channels?
What about Taiwan? Japan?

South Africa had them but supposedly got rid of them. I wonder if they kept a few "just in case".

The official list is:

Russia
United States
China
France
United Kingdom
Pakistan
India
Israel

I always thought that South Africa had tested one some time ago.

Pointless having them in secret. The strength is in deterrence.

Israel's power is independence – assuming the Frenchies aren't in overall control.

No idea who overlords Bharat/Hindustan/Injah or Pakistan.

The Norks are under the PRC leash – they must always remember Vietnam.

The Iranians are the ones to watch – a fanatical gerontocracy that might sacrifice anyone and anything for their ideals of valhalla

Well put, Stoppage. Even scarier is that Iran may have decided it doesn't need the bother of designing, building and testing nukes, because "dirty bombs"- conventional HE bombs packed with uranium or plutonium dust- will do the job just as well.

Saudis might.

They have the missiles and there were rumours they bankrolled Pakistan on the understanding they could 'borrow' some if needed.

Well China, North Korea, India and Iran all got nukes only due to Russia's help.
Perhaps it is time for the West to help eastern block nations as well as Pacific ocean nations with there nukes?

I would not be at all surprised to discover the Saudis have them (probably purchased from Pakistan) but are keeping them concealed until Iran demonstrates it has them, with the thought that a subsequent declaration will minimize the risk of being sanctioned for violating the NPT regime.

I would expect that both Germany and Japan are sufficiently advanced that either could become a nuclear power very quickly. A couple of years back, I remember reading an account somewhere written by a guy who claimed to have worked with Japan's space agency, who commented on how proud they were to have reduced their satellite launch sequence time to fifteen minutes. I can't think of a civilian application that would require a satellite launch on 15 minutes' notice, but there are certainly some military applications that would.

Presumably, measures like this have a dual purpose of ensuring the ability to transition to a nuclear power very, very quickly.

I would not be shocked if Japan had them

I would be.

Pointless having them in secret. The strength is in deterrence.

I pointed out that one doesn't need to reveal it publicly. Just reveal it to possible adversaries through "back channels".
There are those 🙄 who would have a hissy fit if South Korea were disclosed to have them, and try to … meddle.
Seoul would be foolish to not have even considered it. Ditto Japan and Taiwan.

It's a well understood "chute" that Saudi Arabia could acquire a modest battery of nukes from Pakistan over a weekend if/when they decided to do so.

The basic implosion firing system the US employed with their earliest nukes is no longer considered particularly sophisticated, enabling anyone who could muster a sufficient supply of fissionable material to produce nukes on short notice. This probably includes Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Germany.

Canada, Australia and New Zealand might also have the capacity to join the nuclear club, but are probably a) too opposed to the concept to do so, and b) too reassured by their comfy place beneath the American nuclear umbrella to do so.

Poland, hmmm???

There is an edgy argument to be made that since Ukraine's post cold war surrender of the nuclear weapons deployed within its territory (over which the Ukrainians had no command and control) was predicated upon Russia, the US, and the UK guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial sovereignty, they are entitled to be re'nuke'ified given Russia's invasion(s). Of course, given Ky'iv's control of Chernobyl, it's an admirable act of restraint they have not deployed any dirty weapons.

HMS Exeter you are right about Ukraine. It is also a strong argument to never give up your nukes, and never sign a treaty with Russia.

Some have said they have the parts to assemble nuclear weapons but since they are not actually constructed they don't technically have nukes.

That applies to Japan, and Taiwan, and likely others.

Letting Pakistan store your nukes until you are ready for them does not seem like a good idea to me. It would seem that getting them to Saudi might be a problem in a tense international situation.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

I seem to recall an investigative report several years ago which talked about Pakistan's nuke situation where they are driven around the country in a series of vans! It seemed like a recipe for disaster and apparently the U.S. has a plan in place (along with who knows what other countries) to seize the nukes in case the Pakistani government ever collapsed.

I think the crisis point would be if Taiwan is conquered by force of arms. I think Australia and Japan would have nukes within a year or two.

"The only real atomic bomb secret is that it works. The rest is engineering."
—-Some guy whose name I can't remember

I think Australia and Japan would have nukes within a year or two.

I doubt it for Oz. Japan probably has nuke kits already to go- just add instructions and glue. Here the cat fight over getting nuke subs, and the "shock and horror" when someone said we should consider nuke power stations, means that the pollies, Greens and Chardonnay socialists would still be arguing when they were vaporised by nukes hitting the capital cities.

Cripes, there's even a movement to close down the one reactor, which produces medical isotopes, so we can be completely "nuke free". Except for the yellow cake (uranium) our miners sell- and which the chardy socialist probably have shares in.

too reassured by their comfy place beneath the American nuclear umbrella

Not likely. The US/UK/France/whoever would stand by and watch the mushrooms grow if it suited their purpose at the time. Our sole hope is that nobody wants to irradiate all the useful stuff we have, like minerals, excellent beaches and cute wildlife.

link

That should stir the pot nicely.

India developed it's own nuclear weapons due to the India-China war of 1962.

link

After the fall of the USSR, didn't quite a few nukes go missing?

I read years ago that Saudi Arabia will obtain nukes if Iran gets them.

Honestly, I was assigned to the US VII Corps in the early 1980s. During planning discussions, the staff was concerned about the French using tactical nukes. They had let it be known that they would use them before the red horde reached the border.

A nuclear program is pretty hard to hide. You need to buy things from advanced countries, the kinds of things that are carefully tracked for this very reason. It takes a lot of people, it takes a lot of money. It takes a lot of very, very educated people, and that's also easy to track.

My guess is that Japan does not have a program. But they have a plan and could have nuclear weapons inside of twelve months when they decide to do it. They have a list of people they're going to hire, buildings they're going to use, materials they will refine. Maybe six months.

Iran does not have a program, or at least not an advancing program, because if they did the Israelis would blow it up.

A more interesting question is whether *Russia* has operable nuclear weapons. What they spend is so very, very much less than the other countries that it's hard to believe they have maintained the stockpile properly. I bet they have far fewer usable weapons than all the sources say. They just don't spend what it takes.

I understand that yes, the Saudis do have the Bomb.

I have always assumed that South Africa got rid of the bomb to ensure that the ANC didn't have access to nukes.

They threw Rhodesia under the bus to give themselves time to get rid of their nukes and other unsavoury programmes before majority rule came along…

@TimePortal, my dad was a career naval officer and during the Yom Kippur War his job was to marshal supplies from all over the US for shipment to Israel. He said he spoke to an Israeli general after the war and the general said that they were 100% prepared to go nuclear before Israel fell. I imagine they still feel the same way now.

A nuclear program is pretty hard to hide. You need to buy things from advanced countries, the kinds of things that are carefully tracked for this very reason.

I would assume that there are few countries more technologically advanced than Japan. Pakistan and India? 🙄
Japan can be very secretive. Duh! Ditto Taiwan and South Korea.
Cooperation? "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."
There are ways to let a potential enemy know to watch their step. I realize that I'm stepping into Tom Clancy territory here. Oh, wait! He's already covered that. 😄

Iran has been pretty restrained in this regard given the provocations and threats it has faced, and it has repeatedly said it is not making nuclear weapons, that they are forbidden under Islamic law. And neutral inspectors and US intelligence have backed up Iranian claims to not having a weapons program or the materials required. But they might like having what is called "nuclear latency" -- the knowledge, skills, and materials available to construct a nuclear device quickly if they made a decision to. This goes for many other advanced countries seeking a deterrent against enemies, real or perceived. I wouldn't put it past the Saudi princes to have some secret nuclear operation plan even now, they've been privy to a lot of materials and know-how and they have the motive (one-up Iran and safeguard their oil facilities from any attack). Taiwan and Japan and So. Korea, ditto, except I understand that these countries have abstained from going nuclear because of behind-the-scenes US assurances that they would be protected by the US military as long as they did not pursue an independent nuclear weapons program. And Japan has to contend with vociferous anti-nuclear public opinion to a degree not found in other nations.

There has been a lot written about the secret SA nuclear program and possible test in the So. Atlantic many years ago, in cooperation with the Israelis (who also stood to gain by the testing for their own purposes), sometime c. 1979? Or early 80s? But SA abandoned its program and materials when the apartheid government collapsed.

Taiwan and Japan and So. Korea, ditto, except I understand that these countries have abstained from going nuclear because of behind-the-scenes US assurances that they would be protected by the US military as long as they did not pursue an independent nuclear weapons program.

Oh, my sweet Summer children…
US assurances change 180 every 4 years, if not more often. I'm sorry to say that such assurances in a matter of life and death are not….

I had heard that Pakistan will give nukes to the Saudis too. But India & Pakistan primarily have them to nuke each other. Hindus vs. moslems. However, Pakistan has some very hard-core radical fundamentalist islamists in their population. There have been some real horror stories coming out of Pakistan.

E.g. IIRC, a Christian woman drank from a well(?) for moslems only. Wow, the US had to get involved. Or the angry fundamentalist moslem mob were going to go medieval on her.

The Paks also more recently supported their own monstrous creation, the Taliban. With overrunning A'stan. Suppling weapons, intel and even some of their own local radical moslems, etc. came to aid the Taliban.

So if I had to choose who would be first to use a nuke(s). It would be a moslem nation i.e. Iran. As if they don't have deployable nukes already they will soon. Aided but billions of $ from the US Gov't. Under various guises and reasons. I'm going to make a call – "bad idea" …

The current US top leadership thinks they can "make a deal" with a fundamentalists molsem theocracy which is Iran's gov't. Which 80% of their own population not supporting them. Even assisting the Mossad with ops inside Iran.

Or one or more of the other islamic terrorist factions. Would love to get a nuke. Rumors were UBL was trying to get a nuke(s). As well as a few other islamists. With the fall of the USSR intel was "rogue" Russian "sore losers", etc. were trying to sell a nuke(s) to moslem terrorists. Or even former USSR scientists were willing to help a nation, or terrorists develop nukes. $ always talks …

We may never know truth about this intel/these rumors. Of nukes floating around after the fall or the USSR. And being up for sale, etc. But it seems it didn't happen(?). The list posted earlier is most likely accurate on who has nukes currently. With Iran probably jointing that list if left unchecked, etc.

So, I think the question is not completely about who has nukes and will use them. But radical islamic terrorists[including Iran] who I don't doubt are still some of them that may be trying to get nukes. IMO bottom line these radical islamists would be the first to use them.

Iran has been "two months away" for years.

Better if you see a "Beware of Dog" sign. To believe that the is a dog somewhere around there. Regardless, what has timeframe been reported for Iran to have deployable nukes. Better to err on the side of caution when it comes to nukes. It is a 0 – Sum game. By the time one knows for sure it may be too late ? Are we willing to take the risk ?

And neutral inspectors and US intelligence have backed up Iranian claims to not having a weapons

Yeah and I have a bridge in Brooklyn up for sale too. If they don't have deployable nukes they will. Any other reasoning would be flawed. Plus Israel would be their first target. I as well as many others who know much more than me know not to trust Iran. As their word means nothing. Especially when dealing with Infidels. Which is most of the gov'ts/nations where we on TMP live …