"And the Evil Empire Strikes Back" Topic

Well, it's on now with Iran.

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Not really sure what Iran is really trying to accomplish here other than for internal consumption and to show support for its proxies. This is the second big barrage that hasn't produced much of anything. While they have thousands of missiles of all kinds, they only have so many launchers and crews, so trying to overwhelm the Israeli (and with help from the US, UK< ,and Jordan) defenses is going to be tough. They can't use the Iranian Air Force as it has no power projection capability, nor does their navy.

Look for some IDF surgical strikes and they won't be pulling their punches this time. Sad this happened. War is bad for business for most parts of the economy.

Fewer to sell to other members of the axis of evil.

aegis +1

Iran wants the USA out of the Mid-East. And drive the Jews into the sea. They have been supporting terrorists for decades. They were using Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis as proxies for their own forces. And will continue until something is done about it. Probably currently the IDF is the only one that may do it. They will have to …

Iran, Russia, North Korea, Communist China are all at war against the West in Israel and Ukraine.

It's the Spanish Civil War all over again.

Bunkermeister

If I were the heading the IDF I would recommend strikes against their nuclear facilities and political leaders. Cut off the head of the snake.

Not really sure what Iran is really trying to accomplish here…

One difference is that the previous strike combined drones and missiles, launched to arrive simultaneously… which had the defect of giving the Israelis plenty of warning.

This time it was all ballistic missiles, so Israel only had something like 18 minutes warning* before the missiles would have hit. So from Iran's perspective, this was a rational step toward overwhelming Israel's missile defenses… and kudos to Israel and the allies for knocking everything out of the air.

* though they had 2 days notice as the launchers were put into position

And Ukraine is thinking: wish somebody would do that for us.

If I were the heading the IDF I would recommend strikes against their nuclear facilities and political leaders. Cut off the head of the snake.

Take out their missile manufacturing facilities, kill two birds with one stone (i.e., helps Israel and Ukraine).

Hmm… You call this "all missiles shot down"?

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ok.ru/video/8150741355151

It seems to me that your "truthful" media are not saying something…

Cuprum. Nice try but it looks like the Iranian strike was on the whole a failure. Now it's Israeli's turn. Why are you siding with Iran? Very shady.

I am not on the side of Iran or Israel – this is someone else's war for me. Let them somehow sort out their own problems.
And whether the missile strike failed or not, we can judge only by knowing its goals. Iran stated that this strike would be carried out exclusively on military facilities and political centers. And naturally, Iran will exaggerate the results obtained, and Israel will try in every possible way to downplay them. It is extremely difficult to verify the result. It would be possible to understand something by looking at satellite images, but something tells me that we will not see them))) But based on these videos, Israeli air defense, even with the support of air defense of other countries, missed many Iranian missiles. This is what I see with my own eyes …

We'll see the balance of damage inflicted in the coming week.

It seems to me that your "truthful" media are not saying something

Over the last 20-odd years I've come to believe that the old truism needs expanding- "Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics and Journalism." The media these days, at least here, is all shock, gossip, pushing biased opinions/"social engineering" and ADVERTISING. There's little time nor interest for unimportant things like accuracy or veracity.

PS I don't see much difference in the overseas media, either. Possibly the BBC and DW, very cautiously, excepted .

microgeorge, only what they can't hide. Iran said it hit Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv, three military bases and air defense positions. I read about the attack on Tel Nof airbase, Nevatim airbase. Iran said it destroyed 20 F-35s and a concentration of Israeli armored vehicles in the Gaza Strip. How much of this is true is a question…
Iran has warned that if its nuclear infrastructure is attacked, it will attack Israel's nuclear facility in Dimona.

Dal Gavan, decades of existence in conditions of undeclared war could not but bring their results. Information is also a weapon. True or not – it does not matter. If you want to understand what is happening, you need to analyze it yourself and rely on a variety of sources.

Iran saying they destroyed any specific number of anything without any reasonable time for BDA is simply silly. Given the Israeli Airforce isn't incompetent and uses hardened shelters, that one seems highly implausible and the idea of hitting Gaza would be very weird and imply a degree of accuracy and real time targeting data the Iranians have never demonstrated, certainly not in their 300+ drone/missile attack of a few weeks earlier.

A nation actually focused on credible damage claims waits on credible BDA, both from various ISR assets and since you are shooting at a very media heavy nation with a huge internet knowledgeable population and no real constraints on posting, social media. A nation interested only in internal consumption shoots, claims and maybe later worries about veracity.

A large number of attack drones and missiles is just a way to "overload" and discharge enemy air defense. The first wave of missiles are usually outdated or fairly cheap missiles (sometimes not even equipped with explosives). No one expects them to score any hits (even though they are dangerous). The next waves are the main "combat" missiles, mixed with "decoy" ones. I believe that no air defense, even the most modern, can provide impenetrable protection.
By the way, the first missile strike by Iran, which you are talking about, demonstrated all the capabilities of the Israeli air defense… Which, of course, was taken into account during the new attack.
All statements about the results of the attack (as well as statements about the repulsed strike) are a bluff. Now we will wait to see what information is confirmed. All other discussions now are just information garbage.

Initial report I just read is 1 KIA and 2 WIA Israelis and 1 KIA Palestinian. So a blinder of a strike from the Iranians, not. 3 US Destroyers and one Brit all joined in so the Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence systems are getting some good practice. Always look on the bright side!

(Of course the real bright side would be the Israeli's getting bored with this and turning a couple dozen Iranian cities into ash, just wait until the wind is blowing East!)

As I understand it, Iran wanted to limit casualties as much as possible, especially among civilians. Otherwise, it would not have warned of the strikes in both cases. Although it is in Israel's interests to hide the losses…
There is footage online of the only person killed. It was simply the finger of fate. And a reminder that during an air raid, one should not neglect shelter:

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Cuprum2 what sources are you watching or reading from the west? I have been watching Fox since this all started.

1) they have consistently said that not all missiles were intercepted, and there were some casualties. Impacts on the ground. Only that they believe most were intercepted and they are apprising casualties and damage.
2) even intercepted missiles are going to drop parts, or even a big part ( according to your video).
3) Iran warned about the first attack, not this one. The warning came from US intelligence.
4) the missiles and parts that came down look like there was no rhyme reason.
5) Isreal has no real reason to lie about casualties. The more, the larger the justification to punish Iran even more. Even an excuse to wipe out the Iranian nuclear program.
6) They did not cover up the casualties caused by the terrorists attack in Jaffa.

Maybe you are watching the "wrong" western sources. 😉

I heard the Ayatollah is hunkered down in a deep bunker, with his head up his a#sahollah. 😉

I hope Iran loses it's nuclear program and their ships in the Red Sea helping the Houthis. I think that would be a fair and measured response.

35thOVI, I don't have any priorities for sources. I use the Yandex search engine to select information by keywords. I give preference to publications in neutral countries, as the least interested in distorting information.

Initially, there were reports that Iran had warned the US and Russia of a missile attack. These reports have now been denied.

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Missile debris can hardly fall along a ballistic trajectory, exploding when falling. Definitely not in the quantities we see in the video. In addition, in some new videos it is clearly visible that these are missiles.

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An Azerbaijani source reported that an Iranian missile exploded 400 meters from the Mossad headquarters (they refer to Israeli reports):

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I hope Iran loses it's nuclear program and their ships in the Red Sea helping the Houthis. I think that would be a fair and measured response.

Bingo ! Iran has to "feel the pain". Taking high losses in bodies and equipment they need to know, what they already know. They can't take on US or the IDF AF or both.
Sadly, the currently risk adverse/fearing escalation US leadership in the WH. Will do little. And Iran knows it … Of course, the US leadership could give Iran another billion$ or more and lift more sanctions. Seems to have worked so well in the recent past …

Oh BTW the war has escalated …

An Azerbaijani source reported that an Iranian missile exploded 400 meters from the Mossad headquarters

Regardless most of the incoming missiles were "blown out of the sky" …

Do we think they actually targeted the Mossad HQ …?

Hmmm ?

I am not convinced that the Iranian attack was meant to completely overwhelm the Israel defenses. Certainly the previous attack in April was not, it was meant to send a message without being overly escalatory.

This attack was 181 missiles I believe. Even if Israel destroyed everything, which I doubt, that does not mean that their defenses are capable of stopping 500 or 1000 ballistic missiles. At some point the air defense system does become overloaded.
With 3000+ ballistic missiles available, Iran could certainly put more stress on the defenses.

The other issue is the cost. At around $3.5 USDM per Arrow missile the cost of defense really starts racking up. I don't know how many missiles are fired at each target, but I would say on average it is going to be at least one round ex atmosphere and probably two when it enters the atmosphere. So probably 3+, so around $10.5 USDM per incoming. For 1000 missiles that would be around $10 USDBillion. Also, at what point to available stocks run out? Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 missiles are not short lead time items.

My guess is that Iran purposely limited its response to find the point between stressing and breaking the Israel missile defense. That information is going to be useful if they ever decide to implement an all out attack. My guess is that Israel also puts this information into their calculations, and while they will respond, I suspect that for the above reasons it will be measured.
However, I could be wrong. There could be an all out attack by Israel and an all out response by Iran. At that point we will find out if the Israel missile defense system reaches its limit. If it does , the results may severe.

If this was about saving face Iran is looking totally impotent.

There could be an all out attack by Israel and an all out response by Iran. At that point we will find out if the Israel missile defense system reaches its limit. If it does , the results may severe.

yes, it's called the Jericho option. Iran needs to stop FAFO-ing and all sane nations need to put Iran back in the box, because this is how global wars start.

I thought I heard that Iran has plenty of missiles but not enough launching capacity, and this make affect their strike capacity.

The Israeli ant-missile defense systems analyze the trajectory of incoming missiles and artillery shells. If the impact site is not populated, the system does not intercept the missile. This is a generalization, but many of the Iranian missiles would have gotten ignored.

Yes, IIRC, systems like the Iron Dome work as jfliesher outlined. That is the beauty of the system …

However, like any systems there can be an AI error. But Iron Dome, David's Sling[I think that is its name ?] and Arrow, all work in a similar manner, AFAIK. But yes, many of the incoming missiles would be ignored. As where they land will kill no one, do significant damage to infrastructure, etc.

We shouldn't underestimate an enemy. But Iran may be as of big a paper tiger as Russia ? But we can't ignore them …

I'm still waiting for the rebel alliance to blow up the Death Star.