"Is China at an endpoint?" Topic

The Endpoint
Sat, Sep 28, 2024 | By John Schroeder
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Jim Geraghty yesterday wrote about the recent nuclear sub sinking in China. It has not been big news here because we are too busy breathlessly covering two candidates sticking their tongues out at each other ad infinitum, but it actually is big news. Geraghty begins his piece with an examination of the large number of industrial/environmental disasters that have happened in China in recent years, and they are legion. It reminds me of the same scenario in the Soviet Union that culminated in Chernobyl. He moves on to draw parallels to Soviet naval disasters, which is a reasonable parallel. But then he makes an interesting turn that is worth examining in more detail.

Says Geraghty:

Autocracies are bored by safety regulations. Autocratic leaders just want what they want, often power and military force and grand demonstrations of their greatness, and they don't care about what they have to sacrifice to get it, whether that's the safety of the workers and sailors beneath them or the long-term environmental consequences.

This is one of the many reasons why red-green alliances make so little sense. How blind must you be, as an environmentalist, to look at the regimes in Beijing and Moscow and think, "Yes, these are the responsible stewards of the environment I want as my ally?"

He has a point there, but I think he is missing the bigger picture. There are two 40,000 feet takeaways from all that he describes so well. Takeaway One, failure is the endpoint of totalitarianism. Simply put, things are just too complicated for that level of tight control to ever work. Takeaway Two, the so-called green movement, in its highest levels of leadership, never has been about actual environmental stewardship – it is simply a means to totalitarian levels of control.

Ask yourself this – was the Russian Revolution ever really about creating a utopian socialist state? Oh sure, it was on the streets, but do you honestly think Lenin and his gang cared what form of government they ended up with or do you think they just cared that they were running it? And even if they were idealistic to some extent, the pretense ended in the Politburo with Stalin. The transition from Gorbachev to Yeltsin to Putin can be viewed as shucking altogether the trappings of utopian thought and settling into old fashioned dictatorship. Every utopian scheme in history has ended in failure and that failure has been rooted in the fact that enforcing the so-called utopian conditions requires totalitarianism. And totalitarianism fails because there are some things beyond our control.

In its current state environmentalism is a utopian scheme designed as a facade for a power grab. It is, if you think about it, audacious. They desire to dictate to every nation and place around the world how much power they can have and the source of that power. If they were to achieve that it would make the likes of Hitler or Stalin or Mao look like amateurs. And if they were to achieve it without resort to military force it would make the rest of us look like fools.

Is China at an endpoint? I don't know – very different situation. It is possible that after Xi they will loosen the reins for the sake of maintaining control – there is historical precedent with them. Only time will tell.

In the end the lesson to be drawn from the failures that plague China is not that red-green alliances are senseless, but rather that they exist because they are close kin. Both are the sheepskin covering the wolf of totalitarianism – a wolf doomed to failure, taking all of us with it.

The above is from Hugh Hewitt's website,

If 20% of their stuff doesn't work, it still leaves a lot that does.

Doc

1) we all know that Russia, China and many others will never follow any "green policy". Instead they will just laugh at us and build and do what they think is profitable and necessary to achieve their goals.
2) life means much less in Asian countries to leadership, then it does in the West. You ruin a screw, you replace it with another cheap screw. There are millions of them and they have no real meaning. It seems that the screws don't often get upset about it.
3) You can steal all the ideas you want. It does not mean you have the knowledge to use them, or build them correctly. You can give a chimp an AR15, it does not make him a Navy Seal. He's still a chimp with a rifle. As dangerous to himself as others.
4) you forgot profit. There are many "green warriors" making a killing off of generating apocalyptic fears in others. There are many who fear death enough to believe them and buy into it.

John!

I'm curious to know some of the 80% that "Works."

Would you care to elucidate?

TVAG

But a ship, or a plane, is a complex system, and if 20% of its parts don't work, nothing does.

I remember a similar debate back in the 80s about missile defense, If a system knocks down 80% of the nuclear missiles incoming, the 20% still kill millions. That is so, But the enemy has no way of knowing WHICH 20% will get through. That matters in a first strike! We could (then) assume a rational opponent, who would be deterred by uncertainty. Of course we no longer have that luxury when facing fanatics.

So in the current global state of affairs, are there any democracies? Is anyone making progress, or doing good work?

Bad hurricanes, water temp 87, is it going to go back down at some point?

We are being deceived – who should take over? This is always the problem with far left and right…no answers, only complaints. Trump never smiles. The concept of a plan does not address anything. On the other side, smiles, but no details. Because we think the real problems are the other side, period.

Is there one small thing that eveyone in America likes anymore?

We could (then) assume a rational opponent

Once enough nuclear missiles are launched, rationality comes to an end.

Is there one small thing that eveyone in America likes anymore?

Can't think of one. Maybe others can.

The Civil War was in part the result of the major institutions, especially the churches, splitting: "no communion with slave owners" leads to war.

"Is there one small thing that eveyone in America likes anymore?"

🤔
Bit#hing? 😉

Well, if only it was a much smaller thing🤭

Corruption in China and Russia

"Both China and Russia have long histories of corruption. These two countries sometimes managed to use the corruption to sustain economic growth rather than stifle it. Governments, usually monarchies, made rules that concentrated on taking as much wealth from any new entrepreneurs as possible. This process left unchecked would damage or destroy a prosperous economy. Corruption, in the form of paying royal officials to back off and let business continue, worked in Europe first and eventually, in the 20th and early 21st centuries, in China. There is still a culture of corruption in China but the senior government officials recognize it exists and openly struggle to suppress it. That is difficult to do in China, India and the Middle East, where corruption is seen as a tradition that is often respected and seen as useful to get things done.

The origins of the Russian nation go back to 862 when Prince Rurik established a government in the northeastern city of Novgorod and surrounding areas. That government expanded over the next 800 years. This was disrupted by the 1237-40 Mongol invasions. 350-400 years later, long after the Mongol disruption, Russian expansion east resumed and continued until the 1700s, when Russia expanded to the Pacific and achieved a size similar to what the Russian Federation is today. After 1991 Russia lost many of its central Asian territories and a dozen smaller areas. All these lost lands were occupied by non-Slav people who were not as productive or as loyal to the state as the Slavs…"

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Armand

As long as China is 20% of the world's population, they continue to build up their military, and the US leadership treats China as it does, especially economically … They are still in the game. They are not going anywhere …

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4:24 is scary proposition.

How good is an army of 75 year olds? No offense meant here, I am almost in this group.

Zeihan has been right about China, I think. If you import 75% of your oil, and the supply line can be cut by a few destroyers in the Indian Ocean, any war and the country itself grinds to a halt in a few weeks. Add in their food imports, and it's faster, although this hurts American farmers, as we saw in the last admin with the tariffs.

And Xi is weaker than everybody thinks when it comes to conflict aversion, IMO. He does not want to lose power. Ukraine was an eye opener. The unified global response showed him he won't escape major sanctions and international opposition.

Finally, I don't think Xi can afford the personnel losses. No longer endless military age people he can train as replacements for what would likely be huge losses just getting onto the island of Taiwan. All in all, better to rattle his sabre and send balloons. In the meantime, we stay prepared and deter.

Yikes, Dragon…very scary..

Xi only has a few more years that he could launch such a war. I guess it depends on how crazy he is. I hope he would rather live out the rest of his life in typical dictator luxury than sacrifice millions in a losing war effort. He has seen the mess Putin made for himself.

Even with the PAL's numbers, the question comes down to how long they could last in a high intensity naval and air battle with the US with support from the other nations in the region ?

Can they support logistically this sort of high intensity/high tech war ?

We'd like to think the US, and some of our allies are superior to the Chicom forces. Let's hope we never have to find out on seas and in the air as the Chicoms move to attack Taiwan. And a land war on the Taiwan mainland. With primarily Taiwanese and US forces defending the island.

Will anyone else in the region or world show up to fight the Chicoms ?

Will the Chicoms prove to be as marginal at warfare as we saw with the Russians in Ukraine. Many were surprised including Vets[me!] and Active Duty troops how the Russians were more of a "paper bear". Than an angry big mean tough hungry bear … 🐻

But again, do we really want to find out with the Chicoms huge population. Regardless of the ages of some of their population. [I'm old fat and crippled but I still can press buttons and play with a joystick in a temperature-controlled room or trailer!] … 💀

We don't have to engage their huge population just starve it. The huge Chinese army is irrelevant, China doesn't have enough amphibious transport capacity to deliver it to Taiwan. The Chinese industrial capacity will be starved for oil and imports. We could fire missiles and drones at their factories from off shore and destroy their industrial capacity.

If the Chinese are going to win this they will have to do it early and with what they already have.

Nukes are a whole different issue…

Sorry Legion, but it may be that some kid who grew up playing video games has better reflexes than us! 👨‍🦳

If I had had such a significant portion of my population living downstream from the Three Gorges Dam, I like to think I'd have the good sense to be less truculent than Xi. Taiwan is more than technically capable of putting together a cruise missile attack whose consequences would dwarf the Roer raids.

All true Dragon … And as we have said many times currently the Chicoms don't have the assets to do an invasion of Taiwan … yet. We know the Chicoms are in it for the long game … they'll wait. Regardless … we have to be prepared, at least to a point …

Albeit 30,000 + illegal Chinese aliens have crossed the US Border AFAIK … The 1st Wave, the Fifth Column or just want to open a good place to eat Chinese ? 🥢🍚🍱

It is also well known that you can't take on the Chicoms on their own territory. How do you kill 20% of the world's population, even with WMDs ? You don't … AFAIK no one will even try …

Sorry Legion, but it may be that some kid who grew up playing video games has better reflexes than us! 👨‍🦳

Yeah … I know …😣😢 <hangs head in shame>

China's BFF on its border is have problems …

A food crisis … The US or any other nation should not lift a finger. Let them die out if need be … but they won't. And will still be a thorn in the free world's side …

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North Korea, feed me or I will nuke you…

LOL !!! 😆

Back in '85, my 2d tour on the DMZ. The South was having a shortage of rice, etc. from a drought(?).

So, the North said they would provide some from their glorious leader's great nation. Their convoys would be taking the road right passed or FOB on the DMZ. Then at our compound along MSR-1 further behind our FOB. We covered up all we could at our Compound Cp Howze. Just for OPSEC, etc. along MSR-1

Along the route passed our FOB – Warrior Base. We put out well concealed Squad Ambush positions. And our FOB went on alert … Just in case … The other Inf, etc. Bns along the route did the same.

Fortunately, nothing happened, the truck loads of rice were delivered without incident. The North supporting their brothers from the South. Made great Communist Propaganda, etc. …

We all kept our ambushes out, etc. until the North's convoys went back across the DMZ.

The troops came up with a good name for this op. Operation Rice F ! Seemed perfect to me !

Legion when I was in the ROK in 94-95 they still had bags of the "rice" sent from the NorKs – it wasn't regular rice it was mixed with other grains. This doesn't sound like a big deal to most in the west it is food – but to an Asian rice is life.

Yes, they used it for propaganda from both sides. NorKs we had to help them feed their people. ROKs their economy is so bad it can't produce proper rice.

And so, the world continues to turn waiting for the second coming and the hoped for peace that He will bring.

I did know that it was mixed … Asians do love rice !

Propaganda was pretty much SOP between the Koreas. Still goes on to this day …

Yes, Un is today making threat about using nukes … But if he is not getting headlines like a fat spoiled brat, he has to talk trash.

China's Monster Amphibious Assault Ship Has Twin Island Superstructures Optimized For Aviation Ops

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Armand

New Chinese Mystery Flattop Emerges

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Armand

China needs more amphibious units if Taiwan is the target. These ships might be one-offs as they work long term on this issue.

Tort, they are teaching them long distance swimming. That's why they are getting so good in the Olympics. 😉

One thing to consider— they no longer have enough "screws."

China is depopulating rapidly. The One Child policy of the ‘80s has resulted in a nation where at reproductive ages (15-49) men outnumber women by almost 30,000,000, and the average total number of children any woman has is a disastrous 1.55%— in other words, they aren't even at replacement status. The Workers Paradise is running out of workers!
It's a disaster, economically and on a power level. They need babies, and they need them quickly… and they can't get them because THEY SCRE… err… MESSED UP!

Thing is, they've got a current population aged 65 and older which is 14.4% of their whole. (Quite probably decimated by COVID, which was certainly convenient for the State in an economic cost consideration.) But they've got the bulk of the population getting older everyday, and those under 16 are only 16% of the population. So almost 70% of their population is going to eventually be trying to live off the efforts of 16%, in very short order as far as nations go. It's unsustainable; the system is going to collapse.
A war right now would go a long way towards reducing the number of older dependents— dead men don't collect government money. But they also don't father children. And wars are very hard on children.

China as we know it is screwed. Do they know it? That's the big question.

I think they know it for sure. They are not a robust society these days, economy not great. They do not have enough strength yet to make even a credible gesture re Taiwan. Next generation or so could be a different story. Xi is another talking strong man jostling around with others wannabes. If the US rejoins this global posturing, the hot air alone will induce climate change. But they are all old guys, hanging on, and change will come sooner or later.

But then there are the nukes…..

China as we know it is screwed. Do they know it? That's the big question.

Yes, I believe that is true. China has two things going for them. Nukes of course, and they are 20% of the World. The standard is to not fight on the ground on the Chinese Mainland. So that negates some of their numbers.

And if they want to invade Taiwan, once they get the ships, etc. they need. Can they get enough assets from China to Taiwan to make a successful invasion beachhead ?

I'm going to say no …

China develops new satellite-wrecking Death Star-like microwave weapon

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Armand

Taking Xi at His Word: War in 2027

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Indonesia's New President Makes Three Stunning Concessions to China

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Armand

"Indonesia's New President Makes Three Stunning Concessions to China"

Indonesia has to tell the bully China what it wants to hear, as soon as China appears to be losing Indonesia will reassert itself.

Implications of China's Suspected Sabotage in the Baltic Sea

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Armand

Paper-thin power: China claims its new stealth coating blinds anti-stealth radars

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Armand

And they tell us all this…why not surprise us?

Well hopefully DARPA, Area 51, Dugway, etc. has some tricks up their sleeves too. Hell the Chicoms probably stole that stealth tech from us !

Possible First Flight of China's Sixth-Generation Aircraft

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Armand

Looks like an early Imperial Star Destroyer to me, maybe a little less streamlined. Needs a coat of their invisible paint. Until we know some performance specs, can't tell much.

Hires Photos Of The Day: J-36 36011

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Dorito In The Sky: Unpacking China's Radical New Stealth Fighter

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Armand

Subject: China Hacked Treasury Dept. in ‘Major Incident,' U.S. Says – The New York Times


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Why would a fighter have three engines? They may be catching up, but I am guessing still not there yet. Get out the secret invisible paint in the meantime…

China Hacked Treasury Dept. in ‘Major Incident,'

From what I understand the CCP, Russia, Iran, North Korea, maybe even some islamic terrorists. Hacking happens often. I'd hope we are doing similar.