"Interesting quote on Afghan Army" Topic

"The Afghan Army itself will prove no match for the Mujahideen and, unless a peace initiative has been agreed, will disintegrate virtually overnight".

From Modern Combat Uniforms Squadron/Signal publications Inc. 1988.

Guess they expect the Soviet backed forces to last longer than the US/NATO Afghans.

"Afghanistan" is nothing but a geographical construct. It has never been a nation since long before the time of Alexander the Great.
It's very easy to conquer, since any or all of its disparate entities will turn on each other at the drop of a hat. If the conqueror wishes to smite Tribe A, then B C and D will happily join in.
It used to crack me up when the USA conqueror was disappointed in the tribes that were initial "allies". Read a damn history book, Man! Or Kipling, or Flashman.
Staying there is, and always has been a problem. Maybe if you're lucky, the small occupation force you leave behind will become another one of the factions.
By the way, one of my favorite WRG Ancients armies was Bactrian Greek. 😄
My Colonial Afghan "Regulars" are pretty nifty too.

How many named Afghan Wars did the British fight? Three. How many other battles and invasions?
Move in. Blow stuff up. Leave.

+1 John the OFM! We Brits followed the standard colonial pattern.
(1) Underestimate the opposition – ending in a disaster.
(2) Go in with limited objectives, declare victory, and leave.
(3) Contain.

No one can rule Afghanistan for long.

Yes, all true, if for nothing else the ANA's/ANP's performance.

The big take away that I have read, heard, etc. is they really have no national identity. They are basically[at least] 6 tribes, two religions, and all very wedded to their religious beliefs, which appears to be very off to the realities of modernity, etc.

Add to that have not always got along with each other. Plus, they were more affiliated with local warlords, mullahs, etc. than to their actual national gov't.

They will not move into modernity, the 20th let along the 21st Century until they want to. "You can't free a fish from water." …

Move in. Blow stuff up. Leave.

Agree totally … Sadly the history of this land that time forgot is well documented. And has been for Centuries … Our mission was to destroy the Taliban and AQ. The only reason we and our allies went there was to kill UBL, etc.

Made the same error we did in Vietnam. Tried to turn their military into a forced that could stand-up to/keep positive control over the Communists.

In A'stan it was similar as we wanted the ANA/ANP to be able to keep the islamists under control. Kill off and/or work with them against other islamists. Stop them from attacking the West.

The other similarities are in both wars. It was their terrain, they had home court advantage. Both the VC/NAV and the Taliban/AQ knew they were not going anywhere. All they had to do is keep attriting the "invaders", sooner or later as before. The invaders will tire and go home. And this happened a number of times again in both wars.

As we see we failed in both wars …

@Herkybird
Yeah. I forgot the "declare victory" part. You Brits have been at it longer. 😄 We have a lot to learn. Did you ever build schools for girls? Did you ever try to stop police chiefs from raping little boys? That's what "nation building" is all about.

My son had less than zero respect for the ANA. He watched them (0n IR in his Apache) roll up to Taliban checkpoints and act like old buddies.

Actually, John, we tended to use the Roman Republic model, and let people run themselves, with a British veneer. We failed when we tried to interfere too much politically.
The best we did was to unite tribal areas into 'countries' and give them a version of British admin.

Just my opinion of course, feel free to disagree!

Did you ever build schools for girls? Did you ever try to stop police chiefs from raping little boys? That's what "nation building" is all about – Yes to great fanfare for the former, sadly the latter was "cultural"!!

Tally Ho!

It was a classic case of never studying or learning from history. Most Americans view history as unimportant and an unnecessary subject to study. It shows in our approach and involvement in Afghanistan. I knew we would lose when we went in and then stayed.

After the USSR left, the Afghan army resisted for two more years. But, in the end, it fell apart more for internal reasons than under external pressure. Afghanistan is a medieval country. Relict. And the thinking of the people living there is corresponding. Legion4 described this correctly. There is no country called Afghanistan – there is a conglomerate of tribes and religions that do not even recognize themselves as a country and a nation. It is possible to change the situation – the USSR already did this in its Central Asia. Now there are fully formed and viable states and nations there. But, I am afraid, for this it will be necessary to educate several generations of the country's residents in secular traditions and according to European education standards.

never studying or learning from history. Most Americans view history as unimportant and an unnecessary subject to study.

Save for those that actually study history, play wargames, etc. And of course I know Army officers study history, have classes, professional development, etc.

But yes most Americans are very self-involved, etc., don't know or care about history. Even their own … The problem really comes when elected and appointed officials in Gov't have a barely working knowledge of history. Plus it appears they don't care either. What even makes it worse is they don't listen to their Military and Intel advisors. E.g. the A'stan debacle, playing softball with Iran, not actually striking military targets in Iran, etc., etc., etc.

They think that making a speech passes for real leadership …

Cuprum2 +1

No, there is another way that I have not mentioned. A strong leader (this is not necessarily one person – it can even be some kind of democracy for the elite groups of the state), subjugating tribes and other groups by force and ruling with a firm hand. That is, all the same Middle Ages…
Society must mature for democracy. Therefore, all these revolutions in the East make little sense… Long and persistent work of "progressors" is needed to form a new society in backward countries. And no radicalism – this will definitely lead to a powerful conflict and, on the contrary, throw the population of such a country back to the Middle Ages…

Evver read the book "war is a Racket" by gen Smedley Butler ? Think the military industrial complex has something to do with problem ?

Sounds like: "Has anyone made money from the coronavirus pandemic?" ;-)
Thanks to this war, military corporations are provided with orders for at least fifty years in advance.