"Raid on Kursk" Topic

Russian propagandists and milbloggers are claiming that Ukrainian forces, which are said to have entered Russia's Kursk Oblast on the night of 5-6 August, have secured a foothold in the border area. Ukraine has not yet commented on the events in Kursk Oblast…

Ukrainian Pravda: link

Not clear if the attackers are Russian volunteer corps or Ukrainian army, but presence of Strikers and Humvees suggests army involvement. Russia reportedly was manning the border with border guards, conscripts, and Chechens; the Chechens are said to have fled. One Mi-28 taken out in flight by a drone; some tanks on tank transporters also taken out by drones. Russian claims that a vital supply road has been mined remotely.

Russians claim Ukraine is attacking with multiple brigades. The railline through Kursk (Which services all Russian troops in the Belgorod region) has been destroyed by Ukraine.

Opsec on the Ukrainian side is tight so most info is from Russian mil bloggers. Some of those milbloggers have been killed when they try to report from the frontlines.

Russian says they are redeploying 6000 troops to stabilize the front.

U.S. policy have not changed. U.S. weapons cannot be used from Ukraine to attack Russia. But it does not day U.S. weapons cannon be used IN Russia to attack Russia.

Russian milbloggers claim Ukraine have advanced at 20 km into Russia.

Ka-52 shootdown in Kursk region

TMP link

Armand

U.S. policy have not changed. U.S. weapons cannot be used from Ukraine to attack Russia.

That's out of date. They can now be used in Russia, but there are limits. For example, you can fire back at the Russian artillery firing at you, but you can't fire at the airfield where Russians take off to drop glide bombs.

Correct they can be used 100 km into russia. My bad.

It was changed at last, as usual too little too late. But better than nothing. It shows how succesful the russian threats rule western thinking and decision process.

I guess now the question is can those 100 km be extended? Is for
The frontline or the border?

A YouTuber called Combat Veteran Reacts (or something like that) confirmed that the Ukrainian 22nd Mechanized Brigade is part of the offensive.he fundraises for some units in the UAF and the 22nd is one of those formations. He goes into detail here.

link

Is this accurate? Maybe. Russian miloggers are saying, according to him, that there is one motorized battalion in Kursk with 2000 more troops in the "second echelon". Sounds like a formation that is similar to the 22nd. It has 3 mechanized battalions, a rifle battalion, and a tank battalion. That formation could such forces.

So far 22nd mech amd 82 air assault are in this attack. Most certainly other brigades are there. Possibly TDF units to consolidate and guard flanks.

Denys Davidov confirmed there are only Ukrainian regular formations involved in the incursion.
Good to see!

It's hard to say what the reasoning is behind this operation other than to possibly grab and hold some territory as Ukraine knows peace negotiations are coming and they need something to bargain with. Clearly, these forces could be better used shoring up other sectors of the front where the Russians are making small, but effective advances. My guess is that Ukraine knows that some sort of a deal is going to get forced on them, so its best to get something to bargain with.

Wars are not won by reacting to the enemy. Wars are not won by absorbing blows and absorbing punishment.

You win wars by forcing the enemy to react to you. By having a faster OODA loop.

To use the forces to shore up the eastern front would not have changed anything, Ukraine would just absorb more punishment. Keep losing combat power while possibly bleeding Russia white, but that is a very long and "expensive" strategy. It is also a depressing strategy. You just absorb losses while the rest of the world tires of helping you and finally says, "this is enough, accept some lost ground and end this war".

Now russia is trying to react to Ukraine. Ukraine is, according to RUMINT and unverified sources, moving forward very fast and destroying russinas. Some reports place them only abut 30 kms from the Kursk NPP.

Some parts of the Russian front might collapse as there is no way to either reinforce or get supplies there.

There are reports of Russian soldiers being cobbled together in ad hoc units to try to stop the advance. The troops are usually specialists (Air Force mechanics, air defense specialists and such) and not mindless cannon fodder. in other words, hard to replace soldiers are being used as road bumps. this is bad for russia in the long run.

Other reports says Ukraine is pouring in more units in the breach.

Yes the situation is hard on the eastern front but it has held for quite some time and won't likely break now. And the longer this attack keeps going the less support will go to the eastern front (if if the eastern front is quite well equipped for now).

Also F16 fighters have shown themselves over Cherson. A week ago Ukraine special forces made an amphibious landing behind Russian lines and destroyed vital equipment.

i do not think Ukraine can do, or support or supply an amphibious landing/sea invasion but large scale raids are quite possible. This will add trouble for the Russians.

One can hope.

soledad +1

Yes taking the war to the enemy, do offensive ops, etc. The Russians have to see their leaders can't protect them. If Ukraine was always on the defensive, with limited offensive ops is not a war winner.

As we know going on the defensive is in part to continue to attrite the enemy. And rearm, refit, reinforce, etc. than counterattack/go on the offensive. To kill, capture, and destroy enemy personnel and equipment.

Use maneuver/combined arms and firepower to break thru and out flank your enemy. Penetrating into enemy rear areas to i.e. destroy C3, logistic points, cut off lines of communications, etc. E.g. the WWII German Blitzkrieg France '40 Campaign.

This would have been done much sooner if Ukraine was given all they wanted/needed over two years ago. But again, it is clear the USA's top leadership is risk adverse and fears escalation. And the USA's enemies know it and continues to take advantage of this skewed geopolitical/Realpolitik concept, dogma, etc.

Kursk is a logistical hub for obvious reasons. It's also a prestige target too. But I have to wonder what the UAF thinks it will gain. We bombed Tokyo for prestige and that kicked off Midway, which probably wasn't on the US agenda. I wonder what this could kick off.

Agree 100% with Legion 4. Take the initiative and hit hard and keep on hitting

There are several high value targets. The Kursk NPP, Kursk itself and alot or railroad tracks.

The tracks leading to Belgorod is said to be already "cut ". That means the entire Russian Charkiv front cannot be supplied by rail easily. Everything must be rerouted through Voronez (if memory serves me correct). Problem is alot of supplies to the eastern front goes through there. So twice as much traffic is a logistical chokepoint.

If Ukraine can capture Korenevo there is a railroad track to Sumy and Kiev. So Ukraine can use rail for logistics instead of trucks. A huge advantage. So I guess that is a high value target.

Sun Tzu: "Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack."

The attack could also have a positive impact on Ukrainian morale as well. Finally Ukraine is doing the attacking and invading rather than the Russians.

Long term, would force Russia to man its entire Ukrainian border with substantial troops to keep this from happening again. That would tie up a lot of Russians.

Indeed Bill, Seizing the Initiative has lots of advantages!

Seems Ukraine has broken through both Russian defensive lines, and seems to be exploiting without significant resistance at this point, and still has reserves available.

The 'tanks on trailers' that were hit yesterday are now known, thanks to Russian sources, to be friendly fire from a Russian helicopter.

I predicted the last Ukrainian attack in this war earlier, but I thought it would be about a month later.
The Russians seemed to sleep through the attack again.

The Ukrainians are advancing with about 2,000 people in the first echelon, it is difficult to say how many forces they have intended to support the attackers – the data varies significantly (from two to eight brigades). The first echelon is mainly wheeled vehicles with powerful support from electronic warfare and drones. Calculation of the rapid capture of maximum territory, bypassing the nodes of resistance. The following second echelons of the attackers must consolidate the captured territory.

The invading forces were initially opposed by border guards, units of the Russian National Guard, police and soldiers of local small garrisons (conscripts – conscripts from service units) and spontaneous militias. The actions of the Russian aviation were complicated by the fairly powerful mobile air defense of the Ukrainians.
At the moment, this mobile air defense has already been largely destroyed by the Russians, which has allowed them to actively use aviation against the Ukrainian troops since yesterday.

Troops from the rear, as well as from Belarus, are urgently being pulled up to the scene of the fighting. There are reports that the Wagner has already entered the battle today.

It is difficult to determine the territory that is firmly under the control of the Ukrainians – light mobile units are operating widely, entering populated areas and then leaving them. Apparently, their goal is to cause confusion and disorganize the approaching Russian reserves. I think that today the situation will stabilize and the territory that the Ukrainians managed to take under control will be determined for sure.

I assume that the real goal of the Ukrainian offensive is the same as the Russian offensive in the Kharkov region – to pull reserves from the front and weaken Russian pressure, as well as complicate the supply of the Russian group in the Kharkov region. The Ukrainians will hardly be able to reach Kursk and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant – they simply do not have sufficient forces for this. But we will see – the result will become clear in the very near future.

And now about the sad part… This is the last Ukrainian offensive, in which the last Ukrainian reserves will burn. Further, if the Ukrainians fail to force Russia to negotiate right now, the Ukrainian front will fall apart. And then Russia will take much more Ukrainian territory that it controls now.

This attack also caused another wave of patriotism and now the Russian army will be replenished with a new significant number of volunteers.

In addition, according to the Russian military doctrine, Putin now has the legal right to use nuclear weapons. And if Ukraine starts shelling a nuclear power plant, he will most likely use it.

Legal?… Ha!Ha!… This word does not exist in the Russian dictionary… it is a synonym for lies or deception… as if Putin and his wild hordes adhere to rules and laws… such garbage, which is good for Russian television, is not worth publishing in the media of a free country… it only causes laughter and contempt.

Armand

Who cares about the contempt of vicious and hypocritical liars? )))

According to this morning's reports, yesterday large Russian special forces began hunting for enemy mobile groups on Russian communications, and by morning the enemy rear of the Russian troops had been cleared. Quite interesting battles in terms of wargame scenarios – I'm waiting for details. Ukrainian special forces against Russian.

Now Russian stormtroopers have begun storming settlements captured by the Ukrainians. Veterans are operating – stormtroopers from the special forces "Akhmat" (Chechen), the international brigade "Pyatnashka" (DPR), the battalion "Arbat" (Armenians – Wagner veterans), the group "Ratibor" – former Wagner stormtroopers who took Bakhmut.

Let's see how they cope…

It is also reported that a small crisis with the use of Russian Lancet drones, which the Ukrainian electronic warfare was able to create at the beginning of the offensive, has been overcome. Now videos with the destruction of Ukrainian equipment have appeared in large numbers again.

Amazing! Russia is completely surprised and routed. The famous Chechens which was part of the defensive forces fled. Ukrainian EW effectively stopped drones and jammed communications.

Now suddenly the Chechens decided to fight. Other "special" forces have turned up and stopped at least two mech brigades! And the drones which did not work two days ago have suddenly been adjusted and works just fine.

So everything is fine and dandy according to the Russians. the problem has ben overcome and bla ha bla ha.

Forgive me for not trusting this. As you like to point out, where is the rock hard evidence of your statements? I want hard proof. Just like you always demand.

Less than 12 hrs ago or so you talked about Russia have legal means to use nukes. Now everything is great!

Maybe the Ukrainian advance have been checked. Now lets see how Russia behaves when you want to take those settlements back…

I guess relentless artillery barrages and glide bombs? Level everything of your own cities and villages. The Russian way. After all everything is ok in love and war. Who cares as the existence of Mother Russia is at stake… in your view.

link

Some of the Russian reinforcements. Almost all info comes from Russian milbloggers and other Russians. Ukraine is keeping a very tight OPSEC on everything. Nothing is communicated that has not been cleared by higher ups.

This is of course to keep the Russians in the dark as much as possible. So of course there are pictures of Ukrainian losses, as these are shown by the Russians. This is perfectly normal, you do not start an offensive with thousands of soldiers and not suffer any losses at all.

What little info the Ukrainians show is mainly soldiers standing at easily geo located places. places that have no importance to the situation. This to give the Russians nothing intelligence wise.

But there is of course lots of rumors and under the table information floating around.

Some claim almost 700 square kilometers have been liberated. It sounds like a little too much.

Others put Ukrainian troops close to the proper city of Kursk. Could be, maybe special forces, or recon units or mech units. Who knows.

The ones I trust the most is actually the Russian milbloggers, they report what they see, more or less. Everything from official Russian sources are lies, as usual.

The vermin are all upset that their territory has been invaded, forgetting that they, and only they were responsible for invading a sovereign territory.

Of course official ruscum channels tell their own people that they have destroyed the invaders and are now 1/2 way to Kiev!

Tally Ho!

Defeated?))) The battle has just begun.

There were no Chechens there – there were border guards and conscripts. The Chechens had just arrived from the front. There were none in the area before.

Are the Ukrainians advancing? What new settlements have they captured? What does the news say? Nothing. At least there are no reports yet.

If it is necessary to fire on cities and villages on Russian territory to destroy the enemy – this will be done. Do you remember history? When it was necessary – the Russians themselves burned Moscow. The enemy must be destroyed at any cost.

Here is a map – it clearly shows where exactly the Ukrainian units were discovered. The front line has not yet been marked, since it is still very difficult to understand where it actually runs.

link

There is a report of a Russian column of about a dozen pieces of equipment that came under attack from Ukrainian artillery. There are no details, but the column appears to have been seriously damaged.

link

some sources say it was a M30A1 HIMARS missile that hit them.

Russian sources. Ukraine keeps high OPSEC to keep the Russians from getting a clear picture.

link

Clear proof Chechens were there, but they left their lovers.

He was wrong. Indeed, there were Chechen formations on the border in the second echelon. But these were not regular units, but volunteers.

Local residents report that the Chechen fighters were in the second defensive line, behind the units of mobilized and conscripts, and left their positions when the enemy approached (not all, some remained in the trenches and on the second day they were killed or wounded in battle). This was confirmed in the local hospital, on the first day only wounded mobilized and conscripts were admitted there, and then the next day Chechens.
These were inexperienced units, which had not yet participated in battles and were guarding a quiet section of the border. Now experienced veterans have come from the front to participate in the battle.

Are T-34s being used in this Battle of Kursk?

They will be introduced into battle immediately after the Tigers and Panthers appear)))

"They will be introduced into battle immediately after the Tigers and Panthers appear"

Does that include the ones that have broken down?!

Tally Ho!

Reports are that Russia is rushing infantry to Kursk, few if any tanks or IFVs observed, mostly trucks and vans (yes, vans) for transport.

Russians are said to be prioritizing the defense of the nuclear plant (3rd largest in Russia, Chernobyl type), which the Ukrainians are closing in on.

Ukrainians advancing on three axes, while they have covered the right flank with remotely laid mines. Ukrainians also said to be building fortifications to hold what they've taken.

The Russians have taken very high losses in armor and even more in Infantry. At the hands of Ukraine's force. Shortly after the Russians crossed the border, they started to be attrited. Seems as it has been made clear the Russians are fighting a war of attrition. As they are incapable to effectively use modern mobile combined arms warfare. But we have said this before.

Putin is buying time, hoping the Ukraine's forces will break after taking too many losses. However, the Russians may run out first of assets ? It is the Ukraine backyard. He wants someone to intervene to come up with a deal that the Russians can keep what terrain they hold. I.e. the Donbas and Crimea.

He will claim victory regardless of Russian soldiers that will never come home. And the countryside is littered with burned out Russian AFVs, etc. But again, the US should have given everything Ukraine needed much sooner. To push the Russians back across their border.

Ukrainian Forces push into Russia …

link

*Reports are that Russia is rushing infantry to Kursk, few if any tanks or IFVs observed, mostly trucks and vans (yes, vans) for transport.*

A fair few of them were clobbered in what appears to be an intense artillery strike.

YouTube link

Looks like a motorized column took a serious hammering. The cameraman, a Russian, commented that some of those vehicles were still loaded with corpses (which are blurred out in the footage for obvious reasons). I'm honestly surprised that the Russians were allowing civilian traffic through, especially in this day and age of the smart phone.

It's been a pretty hard fortnight for motorized Russian troops.

Paul over at Combat Veteran Reacts hits some highlights of what seems to be going on. It's a pretty fluid situation with Ukrainian motor and mechanized troops tearing through a hole in Russian lines. Looks like a classic breakthrough and exploitation.

YouTube link

Yes, this is the same column covered with artillery fire (apparently cluster munitions) that we talked about above. According to estimates, up to a hundred people were injured. An undoubted success of the Ukrainians and criminal negligence of the Russian commanders.

Editor in Chief Bill, Perhaps we are talking about this video? Column of the international brigade "Pyatnashka" (Abkhaz volunteers):

link

Assault volunteer battalions often move in a large number of SUVs of arbitrary models, purchased with the money of volunteers. Each assault group (about 5 people) has its own transport. The old Soviet "Bukhanka" – a military-style van – is very popular with them:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAZ-452

And this is what this unprepossessing van is capable of:

link

…up to a hundred people were injured…

Some reports say 400 infantry killed.

Assault volunteer battalions often move in a large number of SUVs of arbitrary models, purchased with the money of volunteers.

Seems incompetent or even criminal to me, to send soldiers into battle in civilian vehicles. They are just drone targets.

Igor Korpunkov, mayor of the Russian town of Kurchatov, where the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (Kursk NPP) is located, has reported that fighting is already a few dozen kilometres from the town borders but called upon the residents not to panic.

Ukrainian Pravda: link

In Ukrainian reports? There is an information war going on, so reports of enemy losses should be treated very skeptically ;-))
What about the Russians, what about the Ukrainians. In this case, I am guided by the words of eyewitnesses.

They do not go into battle in regular cars – they maneuver in them in the rear and are engaged in the delivery of supplies. Absolutely the same thing is happening with Ukrainians.

A common sight on the supply routes to the front line. Destroyed Ukrainian transport.

From Kurchatov to the Ukrainian border – 37 km. Any clash on the border will be "several dozen kilometers away")))

Ukrainian Forces Make Major Gains Inside Russia On Day Three Of Kursk Invasion (Updated)

link

Armand

Hmm… Nothing new. All this was already recorded almost two days ago. So it's been almost two days since the situation stabilized.
I assume that another Ukrainian strike may follow in a completely different place. That would be a good move.

How Ukrainian mobile air defense was knocked out. Video from August 6:

link

Ukrainan troops have entered the Belgorod area. How many and to what extent is still unclear.

So far all russian counterattacks have been smashed. But maybe they have bought time for more serious defensive measures to be taken. Basically sacrificing troops as "speed bumps " to have time to mine areas and prepare better defensive positions.

Russia have bombed their own villages without evacuating them. Why they bomb is unknown.

*An undoubted success of the Ukrainians and criminal negligence of the Russian commanders.*

IDK- seems like the fortunes of war to me. I can imagine the infantry commander getting yelled at by brigade to get his ass on Objective Whatever YESTERDAY, so he sketches out a route march fast and then rips his NCOs/Officers a new one to get every 'swinging dick' on to what ever rolls and get to Objective Whatever NOW.

As they do their road march, they get spotted by a Ukrainain drone hiding NOE, watching such routes for just such a target. He gets on the horn to some Ukrainian red legs (US slang for arillery due to the old red stripes that would have been on their blue trousers) and said, "Load up the rockets, boys, because do I have a juicy target for you." And then here comes what we called "the grid square removal service": maybe a battery salvo of DPICM (that's why I commented on the Russians allowing civilians through- I imagine there are quite a few unexploded warheads kicking about making travel through there dangerous).

War is hell. The only thing criminal here is that a soldier did his duty and got clobbered for it.

*Seems incompetent or even criminal to me, to send soldiers into battle in civilian vehicles. They are just drone targets.*

You use what you've got, Bill. They had some military trucks, but had to make up the difference with whatever rolls. IIRC, quite a number of German panzergrenadier, and even British BEF troops in 1940, rode in civilian trucks as that's what the Heer or British Army could scare up to move infantry faster than a LPC (leather personnel carrier) road march. Sometimes you get away with it, sometimes you don't. Ukraines drone jockies and red legs were on the stick and those Russian grunts paid for it.

I don't see any information on Russian social networks about the appearance of Ukrainians in the Belgorod region. Usually, the local population quickly reports such news.

But from the Kursk region they report that the Russians have returned the village of Martynovka.

How can you evacuate residents who are in the territory controlled by the Ukrainians? The breakthrough was rapid and many did not have time to leave their settlements before the enemy arrived.

Tgunner, there are reports that the location of the Russian column that was destroyed was established by Ukrainian specialists who connected via the Internet to CCTV cameras installed on private houses and institutions along the roads. New military reality…
According to reports from local hospitals, about 20 bodies of dead servicemen from the site of the defeat of the column were received at the nearest morgues.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of the command post of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, from where the operation in the Kursk region was controlled. We are waiting for confirmation from the Ukrainian side (if this is the case, then in a couple or three days obituaries of Ukrainian senior officers should appear).

vk.com/video-26284064_456293043

Maybe they are using the
EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicle from "Stripes". 😉

soledad, you were right. Yesterday, a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group filmed a video in the border village of Poroz in the Belgorod region. Only ten people currently live in this village. The Ukrainian group filmed the video and left. There are no Ukrainian soldiers there now. No military clashes took place in this area.

The first day of the invasion of the Kursk region. Video of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A column of Ukrainian troops crosses the Russian border. Destroyed Ukrainian military equipment is visible. Here the Russian border guards made their last stand:

link

Ukraine used Belarusian airspace to strike targets in Russia with its drones. The Belarusians decided to move their troops to the border and help Russia destroy Ukrainian drones trying to use their airspace.

There are reports, as yet unconfirmed, of another Russian Ka-52 helicopter being shot down.

Ukrainians report that the Russians have used new glide bombs equipped with small jet engines. These bombs fly twice as far and are significantly more accurate. Eleven strikes with such bombs have been recorded.

In Russia, they admire the amazing fortitude in battle shown by conscript soldiers in repelling the Ukrainian invasion. The 18-year-old boys fought steadfastly and effectively, largely thanks to them being able to hold back the Ukrainian attack until experienced troops were transferred from the front.

*there are reports that the location of the Russian column that was destroyed was established by Ukrainian specialists who connected via the Internet to CCTV cameras installed on private houses and institutions along the roads. New military reality…*

For sure. The guys on both sides of this war have shown quite a bit of creativity when it comes to using the resources, especially tech, on hand.

UA's spooks using civy cams is particularity devious and clever. You get your recon without risking drones or troops by using those webcams that are becoming universal these days.

I've also heard some Russian units are using Discord channels to coordinate operations, like a bunch of kids getting together to play Call of Duty or something. Hell, odds are some of those 'kids' grew up doing that stuff and just carried that savvy with them to the military when they got called up or signed up. I bet they never gave up those channels and were playing with them on-line before going to the front! I guess I'll hold back a bit the next time I catch a student fooling around on their device and not give them the old "gaming won't get you anywhere in real life" speech.