"The Geopolitics of World War III" Topic

"On January 2, 2024, Foreign Minister Israel Katz proclaimed "We're in the middle of World War III against Iran [led] radical Islam, whose tentacles are already in Europe." He claimed that Israel, in engaging in a war against Hamas and other Iranian proxies, was defending "everyone." Although his rhetoric may seem overblown to many in the United States and Europe, it should not be dismissed out of hand. Sometimes, regional conflicts, such as the Japanese conquest of Manchuria of 1931-32 or the Spanish Civil War of 1936-39, foreshadow dangers that are more geographically extensive and militarily intense. Do the barbaric events of October 7, 2023, and the Israeli military campaign in Gaza prefigure a broader, global armed conflict? Or is this merely a local conflict, one that is likely unresolvable short of one side or the other engaging in genocide or ethnic cleansing?

We have written this paper in a specific context. Over thirty months ago we made a geopolitical prediction regarding the emergence of a global conflict with four fronts. However, social scientists rarely test their theories by predicting future political events. Who wants to be characterized as a Jonah or a Cassandra? As one eminent strategist argued, the future of war (in detail) is unknowable. And, with perhaps one notable exception, social scientists rarely engage, on a routine basis, in disprovable prediction. Without predictive tools, social scientists and strategists must rely on intuition, a knowledge of history, and good theories—all of which are often in short supply…"

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Armand

Radical Islam has always been a threat, since it started in the 600's. They only stop for periods of time and then start up again and again. Locations just vary. But now countries all over the world have allowed millions into their countries voluntarily. We have started to pay in small ways, but I fear we will all pay heavily eventually for this colossal blunder.

35thOVI – the same can be said for many religions. A large percentage of historical conflicts have religion as a direct or indirect cause.

Martyn is right. The Amish who flew the planes into the Towers were brutal.

35thOVI + 1

Armand

35thOVI+2

Radical Islam has always been a threat, since it started in the 600's.

FWIW – Radical islam, fanatical islam, fundamentalist islam are not most of the followers of islam. But these very angry minorities can and are very dangerous. We can never forget that. I know some moslems at the Y. I was befriended by two sisters who are like 8 & 11. The are very nice little girls, I see them at the Y pools often. Their mother is from Palestine, a very nice and warm woman. They are most likely what most moslems are like. I also know some from other Arab nations at the Y. I like to talk to them. Get their take on things, etc.. They don't appear to be a threat …

That being said it appears in some moslems nations you and your troops may not know who to trust. Somewhat like the vills in SE Asia I am told.

The Amish who flew the planes into the Towers were brutal.

There are a lot of Amish near where I live. The worst thing I can see they do is their horses leave 💩 behind on the road … 🐎 🐎 🤩😎

Martyn +1.

The Thirty Years War, a religious war, destroyed much of Europe and cost as many as 8 million lives, a huge population percentage. There have been countless other wars involving Catholic vs Protestant in Britain and Europe. In the 1500s the French fought eight separate internal wars over religion. Difficult to say how many have died in a long history of religious wars involving Christian reformation and Catholicism. Dozens of conflicts based on this.

35thOVI+3

There were wonderful individual Germans and Japanese in WW2. I'm sure quite a few who did not want war. Same with Russians today. But that did not stop WW2 or the war in the Ukraine.

Rightly or wrongly, there are enough "radicals" in the religion who believe that it is the followers mission in life to destroy the infidels and make one world of Islam.

Some will say they misinterpret the Quran, but misinterpreted or not, it does not stop those who believe.

"Unfortunately the current Wahhabi influence sweeping over the Islamic world compounds the rule-the-whole-world mindset among many Muslims, who wrongfully think that the goal of Islam is to take over the world by whatever means necessary, and forcefully guide every human into the right path. They fail to reason that if such was the goal of Islam, God would have done so himself, and would not give people free will to choose to obey and disobey if they please."

35th +1

35th…of course you are right. Christians and Protestants gave up on killing each other in wars quite a while ago for the most part. Religious war in the ME never really ends, it is fanatic and makes an enemy of any and all non-believers.

I had a student from Turkey that would practice English conversation with me. He told me he believes Islam is a few hundred years behind Christianity as a "mature" religion. He wishes that Islam had already gone through the conflicts Christianity had, so people can focus on other things, rather than whether you are Shi'a or Sunni.

It's an interesting theory on the evolution of religion though; that it MUST go through a period of conflict, to settle internal inconsistencies, or to get out of the way the fanatical theology, to come to a point of "no one cares if you are Catholic or Protestant."

Of course, these sorts of conflicts didn't end until relatively recently. As a descendent of Italian immigrants, & Catholic to boot, I recall studying about how Catholic immigrants were viewed in the US, whether they came from Italy or Ireland. It was still a "big deal" that Kennedy was Catholic, & there were complaints about how he would take direction from the Pope, rather than the American people. That is still within living memory of the US.

Damon.

So those from GB is this going on? Not, can it happen, (that would be opinion), is he really attempting this? If true, it would seem assimilating is not an aim.

Subject: Hate cleric with his own 'army' raises £3.00 GBPm to create Islamic homeland on Scottish island – as the extremist who already runs military-style training camps bids to build his own school, hospital and mosque and practise sharia law at remote spot | Daily Mail Online


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As a descendent of Italian immigrants, & Catholic to boot, I recall studying about how Catholic immigrants were viewed in the US, whether they came from Italy or Ireland. It was still a "big deal" that Kennedy was Catholic, & there were complaints about how he would take direction from the Pope, rather than the American people. That is still within living memory of the US.

Yes being both Italian and Catholic too, I remember some minor things happening in grade school. But generally, you don't see much of that today. The found other people to hate.

My people didn't get here until about 1905 … so I take no responsibility of anything that happened here before that.😎

FWIW – IIRC The USA is 42% Protestant and 21% Catholic. Jewish 2.4% and 1.4% moslem. Those figures may have changed recently.

35th, that is not happening. Misleading news, there were no deals with that guy to sell the island to him, it was all hot air. The locals don't want radicals there, the island is way too small for a group of people, the weather may not suit them. They don't drink whisky. I live part time in Scotland.

That is what I asked, is this true? I.e. is he attempting it, not has he done it.

Thanks

They don't drink whisky???… terrorist for sure!…

Armand

America Beware: Russia is Waging a Broader War with Tactics Both Seen and Unseen

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Armand

Some keep saying if Putin "wins" in Ukraine, he will attack other nations that used to be under Russia's control. However, most if not all are NATO members. And where would Putin get the forces to do this massive invasion starting WWIII? Having taken massive losses at Ukraine's hands.

Regardless the West still needs to support Ukraine to ensure the Russians will not think about invading anywhere.