"You are now in charge of the Russian military." Topic

Setting aside your personal feelings, emotions and angst about the war what would you do to win the war for Russia if you were placed in charge of the military? I expect a lot of stage a coup answers. What I am looking for is serious answers. You have been put in charge today on 7/11/24 what would you do to win it for Russia? Pretend you are a Russian general, patriot and believe in your cause.

Firstly I'd buy a single storey house….

+1 korsun0!

Spend maximum efforts in hybrid warfare such as hacking, PR and basic disinformation to get officials elected in the West that will undermine attempts to support Ukraine. I do not believe Russia can wear down Ukraine without getting the West to go full Neville Chamberlin and wimp out on aggression.

All the nuclear bluster is pure Orc manure. Russia knows one nuke and China bails and the world gets serious about turning the Russian Federation into North Korea 2.0. Getting the West to go full spineless and bail on Ukraine is the only way to wear down the Ukraine.

I would move back to areas I originally wanted, fortify and dig in. Make the area into another Kursk and force the Ukrainians to go strictly on the offensive and bleed themselves out, or concede the area to Russian control.

If my aim was to obtain more Ukrainian land, I would rebuild my military and wealth and bind my time. If my only aim had been that area, I would still rebuild and build my economy.

My only qualifications for peace would be what I took and that the Ukraine is never admitted to NATO.

You asked, there you go.

Firstly I would need to define what victory looks like before working on a plan to achieve it. Possible victory conditions:
1) Control the mainly Russian ethnic area of Luhansk and Donetsk which is essentially the Donbas. This is already virtually achieved, so I doubt this is what is defined as victory.
2) Control all of Luhansk and Donetsk. This could be achievable but the further west you go, the more the population is against you.
3) Control the land bridge to Crimea. This is already achieved but you may want to achieve a greater buffer zone.
4) Control the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast and by controlling Mykolaiv and Odesa. This would give a land route to Moldova and threaten a large part of Ukraine. The problem with this plan is that the population is not that favorable to Russia,
5) Push east of Donbas and Lohansk toward Kharkiv to control more territory. This one is going to be tough.
6) Take control of Kiev. I put this in for completeness, but just no.
Probably the most likely option would be to try and control all of Donetsk and Luhansk. However, the geopolitical advantages of controlling the entire Black Sea coast and link up to Odesa and Moldova would be a major strategic victory. But it is going to be tough to achieve.
My first step would be to stop firing missiles and drones at civilian infrastructure targets. They have shown no sign of cracking the Ukrainian population. Recognizing the limited SAM missile capabilities of the Ukrainians I would use all of these to target SAM installations in the Southern sector. Once air defense assets have been degraded/suppressed, I would use the airforce which has been relatively unused to target military supply installations and supply routes in the Southern sector . The majority of artillery shells would also need to be allocated to the region. The aim would be to secure a breakthrough in the sector. Only a breakthrough of the lines is going to achieve a victory. A situation has to be created for the airforce to perform.

Good answers!

I would build a second large army through conscription, equip it with whatever I could refurbish from my Soviet era stockpile. I would buy what I could from North Korea and China if I need too. Then I would move through Belorussia and open a second front in Northern Ukraine. I would hope to overwhelm Ukraine and failing that just grind them down with attrition if I could not achieve a breakthrough envelopment.

I would dig in in current positions, and conserve my strength. No more bombing of population centres. Let the West see that the 'Special Military Operation' is over without any announcement. Wait it out.
If possible, make the new front line a Pakfront like at Kursk 1943.
In 5 years try again, or when the time is right…but on a much narrower front.

Martyn +1

I would consolidate my lines and as I pulled back seed the ground with mines and booby traps. I'd make sure that any objectives the Ukrainians will want are well sighted for my artillery. I would pull armor out to create a mobile reserve/exploitation force in each region.

My next priority would be hunting Ukrainian MLRS, air defense systems, and fighters. Russia's early warning systems and air defenses are bing destroyed and damaged frequently. That prioritizes killing long range systems. Breaking down air defenses allows me to target civilian infrastructure. To borrow a phrase from William T Sherman, I would "make Ukraine howl". You don't fight a war to be nice, you fight to win.

Beyond that I would ask Putin to do what he can to stir up trouble in the Middle East for the US to distract and potentially to lead to disruption in supplied.

Finally I would use every cyber capability I have to disrupt the flow of information to Ukraine as well as to disrupt American factories making 155 ammo, SAMs, javelins, gmlrs. I would leave all other civilian agencies and companies alone and disrupt life in the west as little as possible.

I don't think total victory is possible so I want to makey presence such a fact of life that Ukraine capitulates and cedes all occupied territory.

Some very different approaches to the issue, all good responses.

I would milk ever unit for money and then disappear in the world. Some place warm and get plastic surgery.

What a problem is the Rusian Generals read this thread… (smile)

Armand

Well I would approach from a 1980s veteran staff officers point of view. After hours of situational analysis, then I would begin the staff support planning, resupply and then implement an assault plan.

The war has already been practically won in several directions.

The population of Ukraine is tired – this is clearly visible in their desire to escape conscription into the army at any cost, regardless of the risk to their own lives. Sociological surveys also prove this (automatic translation from Turkish):

link

Ukrainian soldiers now surrender more often, wanting to save their lives. Not yet en masse, but an increase in reluctance to continue the war is already noticeable. Motivated Nazis and patriots died; the draft evaders caught on the streets do not have sufficient motivation.
The collapse of the Ukrainian army or a coup d'ιtat is possible.
I assume that the war will end with the acceptance of the Russian version of the conditions:

- neutral status of Ukraine
- Russia will retain the territories it occupied in battle
From there it's up to the agreement.

So now Russia simply needs to continue the pressure at the front and "unwind" the reserves that Ukraine is trying to create. In my opinion, the war will end by the end of 2024 – spring of 2025 without any significant military events at the front.

Surrender to the Ukrainian Military like the cowards the Russian military are .

Funny joke)))

That's an interesting assessment but a bit different than the one espoused by almost every Ukrainian I've spoke with. War weary? Yes. Wishing to capitulate to Russia? No.

Some have felt certain opinions toward Russia since 2014 or earlier and for others these feelings began in 2022 (probably depending on age and other variables). What I have noticed is a calcified hate of Russians. There is fatigue towards their own government and the handling of the war but I don't recall any that I've spoken to who wished to give up the fight.

Well… "winter is coming".
Do your determined Ukrainians fight personally, or are they one of those who prefer to fight somewhere on the Courchevel front, away from the borders of Ukraine?

I monitor the mood of Ukrainian bloggers who are not associated with the current Ukrainian government, but not pro-Russian (for example Arestovich) – and I see how their mood and the mood of their commentators changes dramatically. This is obviously the opinion of the silent majority of Ukrainians.
However, I don't insist. War is an unpredictable thing and the pendulum can easily swing in any direction. We will find out)))

Recently, a Ukrainian tank driver, having previously contacted the Russian military via radio, voluntarily went into Russian captivity along with his tank. Perhaps, of course, this is just the work of the Russian special services, but… He recently received Russian citizenship.

ok.ru/video/7279018379947

link

Former Ukrainian soldiers who switched to the Russian side and decided to enter into a contract with the Russian army. Well, of course, these are mostly representatives of Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine:

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I see this as a repetition of the situation of the First World War… The Ukrainian army may collapse just as the Russian army collapsed then. Lack of trust in one's government and commanders is an extremely corrosive thing.

Morale is a complex thing. Morale for both sides cannot be great when the war has gone on for so long and the attrition rates have been high. Also combat veterans have reported the effect of both continuous artillery fire and drones on morale.

One individual switching sides is an interesting story and is obviously played up by which ever side is receiving the defector. I have heard accounts from both sides. Also, with ethnicity being mixed in the region, allegiances of individuals do not neatly follow the lines on a map.

What is more interesting is what happens when an individual defects or routs. Does it spread to his unit comrades. Does it spread to the company, the battalion, the regiment or even the whole front?

The longer the conflict goes on, the more the morale of both sides will be tested. There is no knowing when the circumstances will dictate that a local morale problem becomes a major strategic morale issue. The smallest of things could cause the tipping point to be reached.

Now countering the negative morale factors are things like fighting for your homeland and what treatment you would expect from the enemy if you surrender. This is one of the reasons why I believe in strict military discipline to enforce good treatment of prisoners – it can eventually lead to a situation where the enemy that has reached tipping point is persuade to surrender en-masse.

I can certainly see a situation where one side or other reaches a tipping point as far as morale is concerned. I have no idea which side it will be. We already saw a situation where the Russians came close with the whole Wagner incident, but they managed to stabilize that one.

I actually like reading Cuprum's posts. He is either going to be vindicated or proven to be wrong about so many things. I think the internet is great, we actually get to talk to someone from the other side of the issue.

This is going to be an endurance contest unless a knockout blow is delivered or some innovative technology is developed, deployed and the other side has no answer to it (i.e. drone killers?)

I agree, without proper fighting spirit, victory is extremely unlikely. But in Ukraine, a very popular commander-in-chief was removed from office, who allowed himself to tell an unpleasant truth. None of those who profited from the fighting army were punished there, although they and their misdeeds became widely known. There, new recruits are caught on the street like animals… Do you think this increases morale and faith in victory?

Russia also has big problems with corruption in the army, and it was this (at least publicly) that was the reason for Wagner's disobedience. The Ministry of Defense violated contractual obligations to Prigozhin's company. But it was his speech, in my opinion, that served as the reason for the removal of the previous Minister of Defense Shoigu and the beginning of a large-scale anti-corruption investigation in the army and in the defense industry. The investigation also led to the fact that members of the previous and current government, high-ranking officials of the Ministry of Internal Affairs are under investigation. More than 600 senior officers are currently under investigation for corruption.
link
So judge for yourself the atmosphere that is present in the Russian and Ukrainian armies.

Well, pay attention, if earlier Zelensky himself at the legislative level prohibited himself from conducting any negotiations with the aggressor, now he himself is talking about the need for negotiations with Russia…

And there is another interesting point that surprised me… The former Ukrainian rear admiral, who swore allegiance to the Republic of Crimea in 2014, and then entered the Russian military service (now he is the deputy commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet), wears Ukrainian orders on his uniform and medals received during service in Ukraine. And no one forbids him from doing this…

link

You can love Ukraine, but hate Ukrainian nationalists…

35th OVI +1

Surrender to Ukrainians and end this foolish venture

Dragon +1

Morale is a complex thing. Morale for both sides cannot be great when the war has gone on for so long and the attrition rates have been high. Also combat veterans have reported the effect of both continuous artillery fire and drones on morale.

We study history, sometimes it just comes down to survival instincts. The troops are not really interested in the politics, lofty goals, reasons why, etc. E.g. Vietnam.

In a firefight it seems it is about survival of yourself and your comrades. You kill or be killed. That is how you are going to survive and get back home.

With some units if they take losses their "morale" goes up, per se. E.g. they want payback, etc.

Based on the Russian's situation, with the massive losses they are taking, many unit/individuals probably have a fairly low morale. But some fight to just survive I'd think.

Where in the Ukraine, as we saw in e.g. Vietnam, they are on their own turf, their own backyard. They want to push the invaders off their nation's lands.

My next priority would be hunting Ukrainian MLRS, air defense systems, and fighters. Russia's early warning systems and air defenses are bing destroyed and damaged frequently. That prioritizes killing long range systems.

I agree but some of the US non-military leaders don't want the Ukraine to hit deep targets in Russia. Again, for fear of escalation and are very risk adverse. IMO Elvis has left the building, i.e. allow the Ukraine to target those longer-range targets. E.g. FA, supply points, C3, etc.

The Ukraine keeps asking to give them all they need to push the Russians out of the homelands. However, the risk adverse US leadership feared escalation.

It was also report by some that Putin using nukes is more of a myth. He won't risk it … He has too much to lose.

[Pro From Dover, weren't you with a MASH unit in Korea?]

Get a cease fire, then:

Consolidate lines. Replace high level field commanders with front line experienced officers. Resupply, rotate and rest troops, train/retrain, learn combined arms offensive tactics. Get the Air Force ready for large scale combined arms assault. Plan to deplete Ukrainian air power and defenses with a bomber offensive on military and infrastructure targets.
Get tanks, support and transport vehicles out of storage, intensive mass training. Increase conscription age. Hire more mercenaries. Transfer combat units from the other military districts. Plan blitzkrieg, no more static lines, keep moving, stretch Ukraine's lines. Coordinated air support for everything.

New military schools are already opening – there really is a shortage of professional officers in Russia. In 2023, the Military Engineering Academy was opened in Krasnogorsk and the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School was created. This year the Higher Artillery Command School was revived in Saratov.
Military departments have been restored in 16 civilian universities, where future civilian technical specialists will acquire military specialization. So the replenishment of army officers is in full swing. Moreover, military veterans will have priority when entering any university. The number of people wishing to enroll in training far exceeds the number of available training places.
In Ukraine, by the way, the situation is the opposite – they have a shortage of applicants in military universities… Now there is negative selection there.

Replacing existing commanders is quite difficult – there have been thirty years of "negative selection" in the Russian army. The army was unpopular, the servicemen were paid little money… The best left the army – into business, into politics. Now we have to weed out incompetent commanders and promote those who show a sufficient level of competence. Alas, this process is painful and not quick. But the results are already clearly visible…

Raising the conscription age is of no use. There are no problems with the number of military personnel to solve the current problems. But there is a need to recreate a system of universal military training in the country. Primary military training classes are being revived in schools (in general for all children), the system of children's military sports clubs is being recreated (free classes in applied military sports – martial arts, swimming, shooting, etc.), DOSAAF is returning to normal work (voluntary assistance society army, aviation and navy) – where those who wish will be trained in field medicine, driving military trucks, operating in conditions of natural disasters and bombings, rescue activities, parachuting, gliding, mountaineering, etc.).

There is no need for large-scale ground operations now. This will inevitably lead to serious losses. Victory just has to ripen and fall like an apple. At least for now, this is the preferred strategy. And the initiative is in Russian hands. If Ukraine forms new reserves, Russia can open a new front anywhere along the vast border and these reserves will be thrown there and "unwound." Rotten fabric: you put a patch in one place, but the fabric immediately tears in two more places…

The Russian losses have been very high. I think this is due to lack of modern tactical expertise and leadership. Thus the WW1 battlefield. Despite recruiting prisoners and a significant number of mercs, the army would benefit from expanded conscription. The training deficit is clearly large based on the operations we have seen and will take decades to address. This is about leadership. Find the best leaders at the front, where you can choose based on merit, if you want to maximize combat results.

I would never actually lead the Russian army or lead the continuing invasion. Hopefully, the high command thinks as you do. If you are going to invade somebody, the best fight is quick and overwhelming. My hypothetical plan was to try for a restart to do this. The realities of the Russian political and military system have been exposed as ill equipped for modern conventional warfare, IMO. I acknowledge that I am dependent on western media for info.

Early on in the war I watched video of a single column of Russian tanks advancing on a road. The first and middle tanks were hit by the Ukranian fire. The rest turned off the road into a Ukrainian mine field as the Ukrainians planned.

Yes, Russia had serious problems and losses at the initial stage. And these problems were indeed associated with weak planning and leadership, of little use in modern warfare (as well as with a monstrous failure of intelligence).
But that was two and a half years ago… Everything has changed. The Ukrainian army has been slowly retreating for a year now and there are no prerequisites for changing this situation.
As for decisive victory on the battlefield… New means of war have made the old methods of breaching defenses prohibitively costly in terms of casualties. New methods are just being developed. Russia does not want a quick victory, Russia wants the maximum preservation of its combat potential after its victory… And in the current political situation in the world, this, in my opinion, is the right decision.

"… Russia had serious problems and losses at the initial stage…."

And what do you mean loosing a thousand or more soldiers per day last months…?

Have you seen much many tanks in attack?… Even the Golf China Carts blowed in minutes…This is a continuous butcher shop, very Russian style….

More than opinion… yours smells like desire…

Armand

You can write ten thousand Russians die every day… It still won't become true)))