"Is NATO Ready for War?" Topic

An Assessment of Allies' Efforts to Strengthen Defense and Deterrence since the 2022 Madrid Summit

CSIS: link

Is the US MIlitary ready for war?

Troops deployed in Europe during the Cold War were classified as trip wire units. This means that the units could not be relied on for long term deployment as the ballon went up.
I participated in a Reforger in 1978 which tested deployment planning. We shipped all vehicles in a brigade by sea transport in the middle of winter. Two companies were deployed with equipment by air. The projected loss of equipment due to plane loss rendered air transported units ineffective.
In 1981, I participated in a POMCUS e cerci session which revealed several areas for that program as well.

So is NATO ready? The local forces will be in better maintenance and ammunition shape than US troops.

🤔

So Russia invades and NATO and the US respond… let's say at least initially conventionally. The US is now fully involved. China says… ahhh good chance for us to take Taiwan and other areas of Asia. The US now tries to fight on two fronts. Japan and some other countries now get involved. The US now has a two front war.

Little Rocket Man says…. Ahhh perfect time for me to take South Korea. The US now tries to fight a 3 front war.

Iran and those who hate Israel say…. Ahhh all Israel's allies are preoccupied. Let's all hit Israel.

Now we should know the US can't fight a 3 front war. We are not the US of WW2 and we sure as H#ll don't have that manufacturing any longer. We are also up to our eyeballs in debt.

Then one has to ask, what percentage of the US is willing to fight Russia for the Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, etc.? How many are willing to fight China for Taiwan? How many are willing to fight North Korea for South Korea? I'd be surprised if it was higher than 50% anymore. Actually one could ask the same question of some of Europe. Is Europe capable of fighting Russia on their own conventionally? What about with nukes?

But we also know Russia has weaknesses as well and we can assume the others do too.

So how long until some nut job decides that nukes are the only answer? That somehow said nut job thinks they can survive it. If history teaches us anything, there is always a nut job out there. 😉

Now my money would be Iran and their Allies using them first and then Israel retaliates. But really who knows? What we should know is this will all get out of hand and control, probably quickly.

I swear this is all reminding me very much of the lead ins into WW1. Small wars here and there involving the major powers and everyone building up their militaries to deter each other.

Just observations, I have no answers.
Short of Putin and the West coming to a peace that neither side is happy with.
Putin dying, (not likely).
A overthrow of the Russian government (sure, how often does that happen?).
A pullback of NATO from the borders of Russia, (not likely, and would that satisfy him?).
Turkey invading the Crimea? 😂 sure! Hey if Turkey takes Crimea in the rear, would Greece help? 😉

This is not a very encouraging report. CSIS can be relied upon to put the best possible face on things, but this does not suggest that force structure and capabilities are where they need to be for deterrence or defense.

I think the US and NATO need to make their militaries a real priority. Seems the USA's priorities are currently elsewhere, unfortunately. Priorities = $ … and IMO the US is wasting a lot $ on non-essential items …

Considering that even with the Ukraine War on their doorstep some NATO nations still won't increase defense spending.
The US could not even open a pier in the Middle East without having ships catch on fire and break down, and the pier wash away, and that against no opposition.
NATO can't supply Ukraine with 155mm artillery shells because Ukraine was firing 8,000 per day. Russia firing 10,000 per day. We don't build that many in a month. How many would the US fire in a day? 30,000?
We have increased national spending but not increased national defense since the Cold War. Our Navy is years behind on ship and submarine construction. The Army has gotten rid of almost all their fleet of ships.
What happens in the West when all their young men are overseas fighting a war and millions of military age migrants are left behind?
We are not even close to ready. It's 1936 and Ukraine and Israel are the Spanish Civil War.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

How ready is Russia to invade the West and trigger article 5, at the current rate of losses in Ukraine, no very. Not withstanding the air superiority that NATO has. And first the forces of Belarus and Russia, have to a. Defeat Ukraine and b. Tackle Poland.

Tally Ho!

We Americans are a curious bunch. We puff our chests and brag about being the greatest nation on the planet – yet at home we cringe and worry and assume the sky is falling. But the facts are irrefutable.

We have the greatest economy in the world: getting better month on month. And based on geopolitics the US is set up to absolutely dominate for the rest of this century and into the next.

China is on the way down. They had their moment but Xi has squandered it. His mismanagement and gutting of competency coupled with their demographic timebomb and massive (actual) debt (unlike ours which is funny money debt) means they whither. Meanwhile the US is onshoring manufacturing at an incredible rate.

We also have the most powerful military in the world. No one comes even remotely close. In that hypothetical four front scenario above the author forgets what the true strength of America's military is…

Afghanistan and Iraq were nation-building exercises that failed because our military is not designed for that function. Our military is designed to destroy other militaries and other nation's infrastructure.

In this hypothetical 4-front war the US would absolutely dominate. It would be legitimately scary to observe. The only fly in the ointment is enemy nuclear capability and if they are willing to try to use it. I say try because as we know the Russians and Chinese are both incredibly corrupt systems and poorly maintained. One local Chinese leader sold all the fuel for the missiles and then replaced it with water!

The Ukraine War shows how "impressive" (NOT) the Russian military is. Can any of their nukes actually fly? I wouldn't discount the US's ability to target and intercept them either. (Or take most of them out conventionally at the start of hostilities)

China also has almost zero blue navy capability. They can defend their shores sort of but no range, no ability to strike. Their supply lines are incredibly fragile. India or the US could stop most oil from reaching them – not to mention food.

Now let's talk about our allies. Heck let's just talk about one where the Russians are concerned. Poland: incredible offensive air power capabilities and a tank force that is bigger than the UK, France, and Germany's COMBINED and growing. Poland are locked and loaded. As soon as Russian tanks try to cross their border, bombs are being dropped on Moscow.

Russia, China, Iran, North Korea – put them all together and have them completely integrated with command and control (which would never, ever happen) and they still amount to what they say down in Texas: all hat, no cattle.

If the USA is intent on destruction of enemy nations and not some nebulous "spreading democracy" and nationbuilding exercises – we completely dominate.

So we can win a four front war? Who ever has? I think we would be hard pressed to win a 2 front war.

You see things economically as positive. I disagree, but I'm not going to criticize your exuberance.

I agree on the nation building foolishness. Idiot politicians of both parties!! You fight a war to defeat and destroy your enemy, which we did with both Iraq and Afghanistan. But then we stayed on trying to build democracies where democracies will never work! Wasting lives, money and equipment. Then we make one of the stupidest withdrawals in history, leaving billions in equipment and money behind. No excuse for that type of incompetence!

FYI, in my opinion, those "conventional" wars if fought, will eventually ignite a nuclear one. A mistake is bound to happen. Or an intentional act.

Good article and lots of great comments!

I would quote Rumsfeld, "You go to war with the Military you have, not the one you wish you had". I might have the exact quote wrong but that is how I recall it. It can take years to create factories or bring back extinct production lines to produce military equipment and it's logistical support. Then there is production times to produce what is needed. Then you have to transport all of it to where you need it. How much manufacturing is dependent on global supply chains remaining intact?

My analogy…

A murdering rapist breaks into your home with a chainsaw. You wish you had a gun to stop him but you decided to spend your money on something other than a gun. You call the police but they are on the far side of town dealing with another crisis. The police dispatcher says, " Hang on help is on the way". The police arrive and shoot dead the murderer but not before he has killed you and tortured your family.

If you need 10,000 artillery shells a day now receiving them 2 years from now might not make a difference…

What an opportunity lost when Russia broke up.

The West should have flooded Russia with cheap or free sugared cereals, candies, soft drinks. Flooded them with cheap TV's. Later cheap or free cell phones and internet access. Free porn, TikTok, Facebook. Cheap alcohol and free drugs. Infiltrate their schools with teachers who initially begin to degrade their country and culture. Later graduating it to disgust and hate for both. Get the kids to self loath. Then get them to start doubting their sexuality. Get politicians to start allowing wide open borders, bringing people from all over the world to potentially destroy the original Russian culture and society. Also give the illegals free giveaways. Stop drilling Russian oil, because of the effect on the environment. Start forcing the country to go electric and close power plants, coal mines and nuclear power plants. Borrow money from the US and Western Europe to finance giveaway programs to buy votes. Put judges and attorneys in who don't punish criminals and release them back into the public. Of course after 20 years, 80% of their kids are lazy, fat coach potato's, who aren't healthy enough to fight in the military. Many are drug addled and or alcoholics. Many will hate their parents and country. By then Russia is multi trillion dollars in debt to the West and paying a couple trillion in interest every year and no end in sight.

Wow!!! Did we miss a golden opportunity to bring Russia to their knees!! 😔
.

Yes if the USA/NATO don't take advantage of "neutering" the Russians by supplying the Ukraine's Forces. As again, they alone have reduced the Russian Forces by about 50% on their own with US/NATO, etc. support.

Just saw report, on CNN, where analysts said as many of us have. With the US slow walking the support to Ukraine. As for the US leaderships' "SOP" of fearing escalation, being risk adverse, etc. Which Putin knows this as does Iran, China, North Korea, etc.

IF the USA/NATO, etc. does not take full advantage of giving as much support to Ukraine as possible to finish the job. Attriting the Russians to the point where they won't be able to attack any of their neighbors. Anytime soon, WMD notwithstanding. This would be a major blow and eliminate this threat to Free World/Western Europe.

Ukraine win or lose is going to buy everyone else a generation of peace by bleeding Russia dry.

Is the US MIlitary ready for war?

Not as well as it should be:

1. A Politicized senior officer class more interested in chasing stars than in military readiness has defocused our military -- much as the French senior officer cadre did before WW2, taking actions to curry political favor instead of leadership. We have a risk averse General Staff who have collectively made deadly error after error but not been held accountable because of political favoritism.

2. A General slump in military readiness as the military has trouble meeting recruitment and retention goals given the problems associated with issue #1. This is compounded by poor housing, poor pay and other issues that effect readiness -- the Biden Admin denying a much deserved pay increase doesn't help.

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This leads me to worry that the US military is FRANCE 1940.

Well said 35thOVI!

It is striking how many here joyously relish "attriting" and "bleeding" Russia with no apparent concern for the hellish cost in blood and treasure this process means to Ukraine. The level if cynicism is striking. It is one thing to adopt this sort of attitude during a conflict between two detested adversaries (e.g., the Iran Iraq War) but to do so when it involves a country you claim to support is disgusting. Is "buying everyone else a generation of peace" worth the effusive sacrifice of Ukrainian blood?

Statement of fact Graybear nothing more. I never said I had no concern for the hellish cost Ukraine was paying pure straw man on your part so you can stand on a moral pedestal and pat yourself on the back and feel morally superior. If you want to do that Graybear at least have the maturity not to make strawman attacks.

I never expressed joy or relish in my statement, your embellishment is over the top strawman…

Too bad your prior post left so much unsaid. It appears detail and clarity elude you unless it involves your feathers being ruffled.

- Stawman

So Gray Bear if something is unsaid you feel entitled to create a fictional narrative so you can feel morally superior and pass judgement? You even feel entitled to decide the emotions of the poster? I believe reading comprehension and clarity eludes you but arrogance does not…

Hasn't it been decades since NATO was ready for war?

SBm +1

79th +1

And again, the US & NATO are not ready now … But the US service members do know their pronouns, DEI and CRT dogma. I'm sure our enemies are shaking it their boots … or sandals.

This is where the priorities of senior US military leadership lays…

Let's Take a Look at the Pentagon's Latest Plan to Fight 'Climate Change'

The Pentagon, a U.S. military installation located right across the river from Washington D.C., is entertaining a proposal to load up the campus with Chinese-manufactured solar panels.

link

But the US service members do know their pronouns, DEI and CRT dogma. I'm sure our enemies are shaking it their boots … or sandals.

Courtesy of Team Biden, they also know they are not getting a pay raise…and they are not getting adequate housing -- illegal immigrants in NYC get better housing than many junior enlisted get…or reformed and improved VA Hospitals and medical care I've watched numerous hearings snippets on military budgets and personnel held by Congress in which senior military leadership intone how the "take the well being of" of the troops "seriously" and then they vomit out a word salad when confronted how their last promise to improve things resulted in nothing.

Yes, many of us Vets know that … Again, as I have said, priorities, priorities, priorities …

Agreed 79thPA and SBminisguy

Legion…I thought annual raises were set by law based on private sector averages? There have been raises every year recently, I believe. It looks like this year's, beginning 1/24, is 5.2%. True?

NATO is not ready for war. Are they ready enough to deal with an attack on a NATO member by Putin? What is the non nuclear threat level today?

Legion, I hope the pronoun thing has been minimized or ignored – mass confusion would reign. I don't encounter it much at the college where I coach, those kids using it seem to be a small minority. But when I do I have difficulty understanding which is referring to who….

This is from the DOD on pay. They have some very detailed info for this stuff.
Annual Pay Adjustment
Unless Congress and/or the President act to set a different military basic pay raise, annual military basic pay raises are linked to the increase in private-sector wages, as measured by the Employment Cost Index (ECI).

The basic pay raises since 2007:
1 January 2007: 2.2%
1 April 2007: 0.5%
1 January 2008: 3.5%
1 January 2009: 3.9%
1 January 2010: 3.4%
1 January 2011: 1.4%
1 January 2012: 1.6%
1 January 2013: 1.7%
1 January 2014: 1.0%
1 January 2015: 1.0%
1 January 2016: 1.3%
1 January 2017: 2.1%
1 January 2018: 2.4%
1 January 2019: 2.6%
1 January 2020: 3.1%
1 January 2021: 3.0%
1 January 2022: 2.7%
1 January 2023: 4.6%
1 January 2024: 5.2%

It looks like this year's, beginning 1/24, is 5.2%. True?

From Military.com

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Legion, I hope the pronoun thing has been minimized or ignored

It appears it is in some situations … However, there is an initiative I can't remember by who, that with get rid of all DEI/CRT, etc. in the military. Its civilian proponents will be fired, IIRC, etc. Good ridden to wasting time on woke garbage. DEI should only stand for Destroying Enemy Insurgents …

Legion, I thought SB meant there were no pay raises. Biden waits for the results of the review that occurs every four years, apparently.

link

Clearly, if you want to bump up recruitment as well as treat people who might go in harms way with more respect, you would make better pay a top priority. Both sides see that. Looking at the budget calendar, why not an interim additional pay boost until the review is complete? You can find the money somewhere in the details of any DOD budget, I am guessing. This would make next years raise more substantial, and presumably the next pay raise schedule will be better going forward.

Wargamer Dave …I am on the same page, but stay vigilant just in case. We assume our adversaries are always at the top of their game, but they face a lot of problems of their own.

SB -IMO I don't think Biden has intentionally shortchanged the military here, but he is too slow to address this issue. We need the best people to go with the best equipment and we need to reform procurement. Congress has zero credibility on any of this. They are too tied to the defense industry via personal wealth opportunities. The whole system is broken, IMO.

It's a way bigger problem than one administration, or pay raises. For twenty-four years, we've shortchanged long-term force structure investment in favor of immediate contingency requirements, and compounded the problem by tolerating a procurement system that would have delivered the P-51 in time for Vietnam.

Nine, why 24 years? Were we getting it right in the 90s?

Legion, I thought SB meant there were no pay raises. Biden waits for the results of the review that occurs every four years, apparently.

I know the E-1 thru E-4 appeared it would be substantial this year IIRC.

Looking at the budget calendar, why not an interim additional pay boost until the review is complete? You can find the money somewhere in the details of any DOD budget, I am guessing. This would make next years raise more substantial, and presumably the next pay raise schedule will be better going forward.

I'm not sure … Our Gov't works in strange ways.

I don't think Biden has intentionally shortchanged the military here, but he is too slow to address this issue.

Slow to address seems to happen far too often. You saw this with the A'stan debacle and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. IMO wrong or lack more quickly identifying real priorities.

Again, a lot of taxpayer $ going to the wrong places. When national security should be the #1 priority. The open border policies demonstrate this daily … 11-12 million warm bodies require support which costs $. USD From where ? The US taxpayers of course …

You saw this with the A'stan debacle and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. IMO wrong or lack more quickly identifying real priorities.

And we saw this with the scores of US casualties from drone attacks on US bases in the Middle East by Iranian-backed warlords and factions…

Couple of thoughts here.

One way to increase pay is to change GI bill so you can take the $$ as a salary increase instead of a free college education. It is a great deal at present. Do 4 years active plus 4 years reserves and get 4 years education including books and a four year stipend to cover expenses during school. I used mine to send my kids to school including leveraging the Yellow Ribbon fund to send my daughter to a very expensive private school.

As to the current readiness you can never be ready enough. DoD is learning tremendous amounts of Intel from the war in the Ukraine wrt to adversary weapons and tactics, we are seeing how our slightly older systems are working and feeding that back into weapons design on a daily basis.

The US Navy is in a defacto war in the Red Sea and is actively conducting defensive and offensive operations. I suspect that my adversaries wish that our antiair assets were performing more poorly. Again, we are learning a lot and feeding it into Naval weapon design (my day job).

Obtw, if you live in coastal America you know that short, permanent fishing piers fair poorly in a storm. Not uprising that a huge floating pier would have troubles in similar circumstances. The fact that DoD could build and rebuild it are a testimony to American ingenuity. Whether it was used to help the people of Gaza is beyond the scope of the DoD mission. (I inspected this equipment in 2014 – it is designed to provide a short term capability between making an amphib landing and consequently seizing port facilities much like its D-Day inspiration).

If you missed it in all the political posturing, our fleet and the USS Carney on particularly are performing admirably. link

Yes, LostPict, the Carney and everybody else did a great job..much thanks to you and all them for the best Navy in the world.

No, but the near-term threat level was lower and we weren't fighting two simultaneous contingencies. The failure to deal with our procurement problems or the other looming issues (like people-related expenses) has compounded in the intervening years, as we spent on the wars without doing much conceptualization about how we would ever deal with the pension and health liabilities that have grown, and consume more of the defense budget than ever.

Got it, agreed, from 9/11 on….

And we saw this with the scores of US casualties from drone attacks on US bases in the Middle East by Iranian-backed warlords and factions…

Yep … but the US still gives the leaders of Iran $ and more $ …

link

Interestingly, Congress is about to make draft registration automatic.

Illegal aliens living in the country will also be subject to the draft. Maybe they're trying for innovative solutions to reverse the flow of illegal immigration?

Just what we need, more Chinese spies on the bases…

Yeah a draft … didn't not our leaders remember the draft riots of the '60 ? Not Anti-War riots, those were draft riots by any other name. Most Americans couldn't find Vietnam on a map or could care less about the "peaceful paddy farmers" of SE Asia.

The '60s generation was a lot tougher than this current lot. So many draftees did their duty and did it well. I don't think this Gen has the right stuff …

Will females be drafted ? Since Obama for the sake of using a term of today – DEI – opened combat arms to females. I guess because no female could be a JCS, etc. ? The playing field had to be level ? The Congress after some time decided that females don't have to sign up for the draft at 18, like males must.

I couldn't see some of our elected and appointed leaders allowing their children to be drafted and sent to a 3d World 💩 hole. They spent too much $ on their educate, teeth, dance lessons, etc. to have them wasted in a war. Save that for the kin of "we the people" …

Sending illegal aliens ? Hmmm ? Don't our leaders remember what happened to ancient Rome ? Regardless, it certainly might keep some of them out of the US. I do wonder how MS-13, Cartel members etc. would do vs. Chinese, islamic terrorists, IRGC, Russians, North Koreans, etc. ? High body count all around would be my estimate.

Would female illegal aliens be drafted too ? Would any female with children be drafted ?

Illegal aliens living in the country will also be subject to the draft. Maybe they're trying for innovative solutions to reverse the flow of illegal immigration?

…or perhaps they are looking for innovative solutions to legalize millions of illegals to create a captive dependent voting class they can farm for votes and Congressional seats and since they have no particular allegiance to the Country they may be taught to support the Regime that gives them goodies over the Constitution.

Or they figure illegal aliens, not being drawn from and a part of the country, will be more willing to fire on uncooperative citizens when ordered to do so.

This is the real argument against a Foreign Legion. Not yet convinced it is the case here, but it would fit into the various efforts to change military culture since the 1990s.

SB, GB, 9LB, yes this has been my concern since they opened the floodgates.

The POTUS has issued one amnesty. Tomorrow the MSM says he plans on issuing another.

"Biden plans to announce new policy shielding undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens from deportation

The action would shield about 500,000 immigrants living in the U.S. from deportation. "This is the biggest thing since DACA," an immigration advocate said."

All so much 🐮💩 … The illegal alien situation is waaay out of control. And it is clear why. As I and others have said, close the border. Round up all illegal aliens primarily military age males especially those from Central & South America. Who continue to rape and kill Americans, especially women. Bringing Chinese supplied drugs into the US that kill thousands. Then start to deport Chinese, those from nations that have/had islamic terrorists links, and Africa … A good start …

Anyone who supported illegal aliens/open borders to enter the US has blood on their hands. Should be investigated and charged with being an accomplice to murder, rape, etc.

DACA – Vet them with a fine-tooth comb. No matter how long ago or how they got here. Any that don't have the right stuff – deport. The others put them on the track to becoming Americans. And closely monitored. Even the ones that were born here. Or they can leave/be deported even go to prison. Don't care if they have jobs, pay taxes, etc. Illegal is illegal … or they are "collateral damage" to their parent(s) crime of crossing the border, etc. illegally. No matter how long ago. They must get on board to becoming Americans legally. Or leave …

These criminals should not even be considered for anything but deportation, prison or Gitmo …

All these illegal aliens overall have done little when $ spent on them should be going to Americans that need/earned it.

Back OT – As I posted on another thread here …
From Military.com

NATO is hitting their defense spending target…

Yes NATO are paying "their fair share" …

Putin and his intel cronies screwed up massively, again.

1) Ukraine was a much tougher nut to crack.

2) 2 new members to NATO, Sweden and Finland, in response to his invasion of Ukraine.

3) NATO is spending more $ on defense since Putin invade Ukraine.

4) Russia's losses are very high for few real gains.

Take away – So for a former KGB officer … seems Putin don't know %#@&*!💩 about history or the art & science of war.

link

Legion +1

"Anyone who supported illegal aliens/open borders to enter the US has blood on their hands. Should be investigated and charged with being an accomplice to murder, rape, etc."

If you've done nothing but enable an open border and deaths of US citizens at the hand of illegals has happened, as it has many times, I would think you are a willing accomplice to the crime. Why not take them to court in a red state/red city. Overwhelm the system with court appearances by the leading candidates of the current administration. Why not? It's happening currently to the opposition party candidate?

Very recent examples :

This illegal came in 2023

Subject: Illegal immigrant charged in killing of Harford County mother Rachel Morin

link

This illegal came in through Eagle Pass 2021

Subject: Just In: Ecuadorian Illegal In NYPD Custody After Alleged Sexual Assault of 13-Year-Old Girl in NYC Park by Margaret Flavin


link

Whatever uniform you put him in, and however military his titles may have sounded, a KGB agent like Putin is no more a soldier than any other secret policeman. His core skill sets are political, not military. Whether the course of the Ukrainian war has been determined by his decisions or those of his generals, I do not know, but if his generals' conduct has been heavily influenced by fear of his methods, it would explain some things.

Yes, the illegal aliens are "winning" as long as the US has an open border and does not start mass deportations. No matter how many in the Gov't says otherwise. You don't want that to occur, then you house, feed, etc. a dozen or so illegal aliens. If you're lucky one or two may murders & rapists … enjoy …

Putin is no more a soldier than any other secret policeman. His core skill sets are political, not military.

Yes, and it appears no one will question his decisions … for fear of getting killed in an "accident" …