"Military modeling on the decline? Recent observation" Topic

This comes up as a topic periodically, but I came across something yesterday that struck me quite significantly. I visited our biggest local modeling store (St. Louis area) yesterday, and realized they had cut their stock of military model kits (not counting planes) drastically, maybe by a third to a half since a year or two ago. This was across all scales, 1/72 to 1/35. The overall inventory of model kits was reduced, but by far the biggest cut was in military kits.

Ironically, as I am getting older, I had been thinking recently of getting back into 1/35 kits after not touching them for 40 years.

Just as likely the internet has caused a local shop to alter their inventory spend.

Military Plastic models are not a big seller. I managed to sell some on eBay years ago at quite a discount. Also, if you follow our marketplace, you will see one of our members who seems to post the same models every few months.

The price point of completed models has dropped significantly. Add to that that Chinese slave labor puts out some really high quality products. Same has happened in on model railroading.

Military modelling, by which I assume you mean assembling, painting and collecting detailed kits, is as healthy as it ever was – the Japanese manufacturers like Tamiya and Hasegawa all have busy release schedules. 1/35 scale kits are much better than they were 40 years ago, and they were good then.

To most wargamers military vehicle modelling means put it together quickly, slap some paint on it and get it on the table.

It's important not to confuse the two hobbies.

However, both have been affected by easy availability on the internet.

My local hobby stores keep large stocks of military aircraft and decent stocks of warships. Model tanks, 1/35 infantry etc have virtually disappeared.

Are "creation hobbies" is general decline? Thinking of model railroads, static plastic, wargames, RC etc. it isn't what it used to be.

Gen Z seems to want to go hiking, not build a model.

The other game store and manufacturing folks have talked about this issue since the 1970s. As part of my convention tours in the 1990s, I attended a number of Plastic Modeler Shows. Plenty of enthusiastic guys there.
Just like in my specialty area, gaming, much of the decline can be attributed to death.
Though the fall of the Wall, has revealed a number of new modelers and gamers in Eastern Europe.

I think the local model stores have lost a lot to direct internet sales

Gen Z seems to want to go hiking, not build a model.

Gen Z (born about 1995-2015) is mostly in its 20s. It's either playing video games or swiping on dating apps. It'll get back to making things when life settles down a bit.

Check out any number of IPMS sites to get a feel for the health of the scale modelling hobby. Lots of retailers seem to have dropped most of their model selection (Hobby Lobby, esp.) but GW (many of their kits really too ornate for wargaming) is still available in a several local shops; Bolt Action kits are also suitable for scale modelling as well as for gaming.

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Full disclosure, I am a scale modeler as my "primary" hobby (working on a Border Models 1/35 Panzer IV J Late, as we speak), so feel a bit qualified to talk about this.

Scale modeling today is not like it was back in the '50s, '60s, '70d, or even the '80s. There are two factors that are going on that have altered the hobby landscape.

First, scale models have become increasingly complex & mostly higher quality, compared to what was available in previous decades. The kit I am working on now came with a turned aluminum barrel, photo etch Thoma screens, 2 different types of tracks (injection link & length, as well as workable tracks), & consists of several hundred parts. Compare that to a Revell or Monogram armor kit from the '70s. There really isn't a comparison. But along with that increase in quality & complexity, comes an increase in price. IIRC my kit retails for $69.50 USD. I managed to get my kit for $50 USD on-line. Getting a deal on kits is increasingly important, but still out of the reach of most kids (or they prefer to spend their money on other things).

Secondly, the rise of internet shopping is putting a huge amount of pressure on indy brick & mortar shops (and, when you combine that with big box stores like Wal Mart, Hobby Lobby & Michaels putting further pressure on traditional hobby shops, I think their days are numbered). When I go to consider a purchase, I ALWAYS look on-line first. The cost of armor kits is only going up; it used to be that you could get a kit for the equivalent of $20 USD or $30. USD These days, for a new release, you are STARTING at $50 USD, with prices at $60 USD, $70 USD, or even $80 USD not uncommon. Plus when I choose a subject, I always look for something specific; I very rarely go looking & say "that's neat" & buy it. I think a lot of modelers are mostly in the same boat. Local stores cannot hold a candle to that level of availability or pricing.

I don't see the hobby dying anytime soon. Modeling is still popular in places like Japan, & China is this huge market, with dozens of start-up kit producers in the last few decades (Border Models is from mainland China, FREX), with hobbyists that are mostly "invisible" to the West because of language & the Great Internet Wall (though some do participate in English language forums).

People have been predicting the death ("graying") of the hobby for decades, mainly because kids are not getting into it, like they did decades past. For me, my opinion is, who cares? Modeling has become an adult hobby, & just like all those kids that "graduate" from GW games to historicals, similarly kids will graduate from Gundams & Star Wars models to tanks & aircraft, depending on their interest.

Damon.

I'm less optimistic than Damon--but then I'm less optimistic than most people. I agree that the demise of small retail outlets says nothing about the overall health of a hobby, though. Better to use model availability. Are there new firms? Are the old firms releasing new or improved products?

As to whether adults will take up hobbies they didn't indulge in as a child, I have my doubts. (Yes, there are anecdotes. But the plural of anecdote is still not data.) Against that, one hopes for greater leisure time, more storage space and less expensive products relative to income, so a larger percentage of those who want to indulge will be able to. One hopes, but I personally wouldn't bet the rent on it. The answer will be obvious in 20 years, and by then it won't matter to me. Not sure it does now.

Are there new firms? Are the old firms releasing new or improved products?

Very much so, Robert. Rye Field Models, Meng, Takom, Border, Bronco, etc. The older companies are also still producing and have also improved their product. Tamiya's new A34 Comet being a good example. The quality has increased and, sometimes unnecessarily, the complexity (why do the Meng Panther A track links need three parts?!). Plus there's a host of after-market support from companies like Aber, GasPatch, etc.

On the down side some companies have folded because of the chaos caused by the virus. They include what was probably the best model producer there was- Wingnut Wings. I agree with Damon, though I think the increase in kit prices is more than matched by the quality of the kit contents. For example, you'd have paid a lot more for the internals for an A7V a few years ago- if you could find a (decent) A7V kit. Now it's part all in the box.

As stated before, I recently picked a Pz IVJ Late from Border, a company that didn't exist some 10n years ago. I recently repatriated a Leopard A5 kit I bought in Ecuador company that, as said, is new. Today I saw a great deal on a Takom Hetzer mid, that I decided top order. The days when it was just Tamiya, Italeri, & Academy clones of Tamiya are long gone. There is exponentially more kits & manufacturers on the market today than at any time in the past.

Damon.

I think the real killer has been the entry level price points. When I was a kid, I was able to spend my allowance on models. Models that sold from 29 cents and up= most were 98 cents or below. These days, some of the older kits have been re-released but at 10 times the old price (or more)!

An Aurora 1/48th Stalin tank was 98 cents. The 2024 new kit is over $20.00 USD! Same kit, same box art, same decals- I do not see 20 times the value except for nostalgic, older modelers. That said, I am not in a position to know hoe much the new company had to pay for the molds and rights but hey, the market speaks volumes.

What is needed are more entry level priced kits under $5.00 USD. If the likes of Lindberg, Hawk, Monogram and Revell could sell kits at 50 cents or less in the 1960's and 70s, and those molds have been paid for decades ago, why no target the entry level market that could ensure the hobby for years to come? Where is IPMS on this issue? Their contests seemed to make winners out of entries that spent twice the price of the kit to even be considered "competitive". It killed little Johnny's ambition to keep at it. Maybe not proper categories that encompassed all skill levels?

Our local wargame club receives gift certificates for monthly painting contests. Problem is that the shop does not offer any historical miniatures that the club members are looking for! We try to support those who support us but it's hard when you must rely upon mail order when the shop makes no effort to service their customers.

Finding distributors that have stock on hand that the retailer can buy is like hen's teeth. Long gone are the days when a retailer could add a few packs of GHQ, Minifigs, Essex, Plastic Soldier Company, Rubicon, Warlord to their order for Magic, Reaper, Ral Partha, TSR, Avalon Hill, etc. Each of those companies (those that are still around) represents a seperate order where minimum orders are imposed. No wonder that the few mail order firms are willing to STOCK from the many companies and fill a need.

As an ex-retailer and manufacturer, the retailers have done it to themselves. Let's face it, historical models and figures inventory do not sell as fast as fantasy or model cars. A retailer needs to turn over his inventory to stay in business so he restocks those lines/items that urn over quickly so he can pay the bills. Those items edge out the shelf space of the military slow sellers. So we kind of are also to blame because of our on-line buying habits.

So thankfully there remains a few shops and now even online sources that offer multiple lines we can one-stop-shop from. They are getting my money now days.

I think the real killer has been the entry level price points. When I was a kid, I was able to spend my allowance on models. Models that sold from 29 cents and up= most were 98 cents or below. These days, some of the older kits have been re-released but at 10 times the old price (or more)!

An Aurora 1/48th Stalin tank was 98 cents. The 2024 new kit is over $20.00 USD! Same kit, same box art, same decals- I do not see 20 times the value except for nostalgic, older modelers. That said, I am not in a position to know how much the new company had to pay for the molds and rights but hey, the market speaks volumes.

What is needed are more entry level priced kits under $5.00 USD. If the likes of Airfix, Lindberg, Hawk, Monogram and Revell could sell kits at 50 cents or less in the 1960's and 70s, and those molds have been paid for decades ago, why not target the entry level market that could ensure the hobby for years to come? Where is IPMS on this issue? Their contests seemed to make winners out of entries that spent twice the price of the kit to even be considered "competitive". It killed little Johnny's ambition to keep at it. Maybe not proper categories that included many different skill levels for new modelers could compete within their own skill level?

Our local wargame club receives gift certificates for monthly painting contests. Problem is that the shop does not offer any historical miniatures that the club members are looking for! We try to support those who support us but it's hard when you must rely upon mail order when the shop makes no effort to listen to and service their customers.

Finding distributors that have stock on hand that the retailer can buy is like hen's teeth. Long gone are the days when a retailer could add a few packs of GHQ, Minifigs, Essex, Plastic Soldier Company, Rubicon, Warlord to their order for Magic, Reaper, Ral Partha, TSR, Avalon Hill, etc. Each of those companies (those that are still around) represents a seperate order where minimum orders are imposed. No wonder that the few mail order firms are willing to STOCK from the many companies and fill a need. Most really do listen to their customers.

As an ex-retailer and manufacturer, the retailers have done it to themselves. Let's face it, historical models and figures inventory do not sell as fast as fantasy or model cars. A retailer needs to turn over his inventory to stay in business so he restocks those lines/items that turn over quickly so he can pay the bills. Those items edge out the shelf space of the military slow sellers. So we kind of are also to blame because of our on-line buying habits.

So thankfully there remains a few shops and now even online sources that offer multiple lines we can one-stop-shop from. They are getting my money now days.

Excellent summary Garand and I would only add a few things to it.

First I have been into scale modeling as a primary hobby for over 50 years (first 1/72nd scale aircraft and then 1/35th scale armor). If there are two things I am a bit sick of is the perpetual commentary about the "greying" of the hobby and that it is on life support. The fact is that the hobby skews towards older. Some of us did start in high school but college, careers, families all happened. And for the most part the hobby was set aside. It tends to be picked up when we were more settled with older children and secure careers. Having attended a number of IPMS regional and national conventions I was struck by the fact the hobby was predominately male and "older". Yes you will see some "young guns" and some families but the norm is us old guys.

As far as costs. The original Aurora Panther we wax so nostalgic about was first produced in 1956. The .98 price tag converts into nearly $11.40 USD in 2024 dollars. The kit was state of the art at the time but no amount of work will turn a pig's ear into a silk purse. Compare this with some of the state of the art 1/48th Panthers out there now. For example Tamiya's older 1/48th Panther is $18.80 USD at Hobbylinc and the newer all bells and whistles Tamiya 1/48th Panther is $26.65 USD from Modeldepot.

New products and kits? It is hard to keep up with all of them. My personal main interest is the Sherman. There is at least one kit, if not more, of just about every variety of Sherman you can research. No more buying the old Italeri Sherman and endless upgrade kits or scratch builds using the suspension to get the version you are looking for. Have you seen the Ryefield Models M4A3 76W HVSS Sherman with complete interior to include the engine? A tour de force.

The Ryefield kits are awesome. So is the price BUT you do get what you paid for. Unfortunately, it is not for beginners and it would be quite rare to see parents spring $100.00 USD for such a kit for their 7 year old.

Am glad I kept so many of my Tamiya, DML and AFV Club armor kits for my retirement. Now I only need the time to do them up! Seems I am busier now that I am retired than before.

An RFM kit is absolutely NOT something I would ever steer a kid towards, or even a beginner adult. But places like Hobby Lobby still sell the Tamiya M-41 Walker Bulldog, & other places you can still find the Tamiya Panzer IIF. Price point of these kits are $17.50 USD & 15.50 on Spruebrothers, so probably similar to retail (A bit more). Both of these kits I would absolutely steer towards kids: reasonably accurate & build into a cool model in the end.

There are plenty of "entry level" kits on the market, that are well within the budgets of a kids allowance, or reasonable for parents to get for their kids to keep them busy during the winter, etc. I'm less familiar with aircraft (I dabble), but you can still buy Airfix 1/72 kits for $10 USD or $15. USD

Again there is a market that caters to low end builders. And in the end, if they buy the old Tamiya Panther A, they're not going to care too much that the turret is overscale, the suspension is rudimentary, & the roadwheels are missing their paired stations. It only cost $20. USD

Damon.

In today's society, people are looking for the easy way and instant gratification. Delayed gratification with work creates more pride and satisfaction. Hopefully, the next generation will discover that.

Wolfhag

For years, I was a friend and customer, at the wholesale level, of Tom Dye and GFI. His comments are spot on. For decades buying from a distributor was the norm. Due to the low purchase level of 20-30% for manufacturers from distributors, manufacturers shifted to direct sales to customers and stores.
At one time before 1980, maybe in the 1960s, you could buy direct from manufacturers except at convention shows.
Distributors carried books, miniatures, games and paint. Some like Squadron Honestly after over carried plastic model kits.
Both Birmingham, Montgomery and Atlanta have good modeling groups with smaller groups around them as well. After 42 years of selling my priorities have changed. If I wanted to satisfy the youth, I would have gone out of business 30 years ago. Lol.

Rudy said" For years, I was a friend and customer, at the wholesale level, of Tom Dye and GFI. His comments are spot on."

Thanks Rudy! I hope we still are! I have been a plastic modeler since I was 5 (I'm 71 now) but agree that wargamers do not want to take the time to build the kits. That said, the amount of choice for 1/72nd scale figures is better than ever. Still, the instant gratification many wargamers want turns past the 1/72nd scale. (Kudos who still use them and 20mm sized figs.) Folks like Warlord and Flames of War offer few parts to assemble their vehicles. Perhaps they caught on to the desires of the wargamers?

In any case, I, over the years, have amassed a large collection of kits in all scales that can scratch the itch when it hits. I don't need one that will take me days or weeks to finish as my kit building is all over the place! (Not to mention my lead pile (pile of shame?) beacons me all the time!

My local hobby shop still has a full aisle of military kits (Armor) but fewer Tamiya but more ICM, Tacom, and Iterali in 1/35th and a buttload of 1/48 and 1/72 (and yes, even 1/144th) armor kits to choose from. So I guess I am lucky?

Good to see you back posting, Rudy!

Finally corrected the log in problem, on my end. Glad to be back on.
Due to my missing lag, I have plenty of time to enjoy TMP.

Oh I dont recommend RFM kits for youth or newbies but rather used the Sherman as an example of what is out there. RFM continues to crank out highly detailed kits at a good rate. So apparently a pretty robust market/hobby for one which is supposedly on death's door. And as Garand points out it is important to shop around. My Sherman kit was $70 USD on sale.

And Rudy if you make Recon we can swap Tom Dye stories :)

Oh-Oh! I'd better be worried! Always wanted to attend Recon but still, am too far away. Guess I should do some RECON someday? With over a foot of snow in my backyard, Florida is sounding better!….8>)