"Schlichter on Ukraine" Topic

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Don't hold back, Kurt, tell us what you really think!

Sometimes, I don't know whether the worst enemy of the Ukrainians is its enemies or its alleged friends. I don't know a better way to enhance the opposition to helping the Ukrainians than to take people's legitimate concerns and treat them as treason. What makes it even more galling is that it is not treason to question support for Ukraine because we are not Ukrainians. We are Americans. Our first and primary objective must always be America's interests. If the Ukrainians' interests correspond with ours, great. That's nice. But if they don't, oh well.

And a lot of Americans wonder what interest we have in risking nuclear war. I've got to tell you that I would much prefer Vladimir Putin to take all of Ukraine over him dropping a hot rock on Los Angeles. San Francisco, another story. But you get my point. Americans are not treasonous for putting America first. Stop saying that they are. Stop implying that. It's insulting. It's stupid. It's counterproductive. I don't know why I have to tell you people this, but apparently I do.

And here's the thing – I'm not against Ukraine. I don't buy into the idea that Ukraine is an evil country. Putin is bad. Putin shouldn't have invaded Ukraine. I don't think it's crazy to help Ukraine with arms and ammunition, assuming we have a clear strategic objective and a likelihood of achieving it. I want the Russians to lose. But, you know, sometimes you want a pony, but you're probably not finding one under the Christmas tree. The fact is there are a lot more Russians than Ukrainians, and the Russians don't care how many Russians die winning this war. I think the war is lost. We can keep giving the Ukrainians arms to keep the stalemate meat grinder going, but what's the objective? If the objective is to destroy Russian equipment, how does that seem like a good idea? The Russians are just going to rebuild their forces with newer and more modern equipment. The war is just going to make the Russian army better because the bad generals are going to get fired and replaced, just like has happened in every other campaign Russia has experienced throughout history. The sanctions aren't making Russia poor. The sanctions seem to be enriching Russia and, not incidentally, driving it deeper into China's arms.

The majority of the Republican Party today is not composed of know-nothing isolationists. It's composed of know-far-too-much Jacksonians. They saw far too many of their sons and daughters, husbands and wives, brought home in boxes because of the gross incompetence of our elite over the last three decades. The suspicion normal Republicans feel toward traditional Republican Party foreign policy is a direct result of the total failure of the people behind the Republicans' foreign policy. Stop being offended that Republican voters have noticed that you have failed, and if you want to earn their trust again, stop failing.

The parties seem like they are both multi-factional and splintered almost beyond repair IMO. Maybe someone could point out the know-far-too-much people to me.

IMO, having a disproportionate number of field officers killed in battle, or falling out of windows, does not mean the replacement officers will be better. Or the war would have ended by now.

How are the sanctions making Russia richer? Got data? China now gets a modest amount of discounted Russian oil, Russians get Chinese consumer goods. How about comparing the current state of their economies with that of the United States?

I also wish we had a more clearly defined objective for public consumption. But we have spent the last year chasing the objective of the Congress writing and passing legislation. We may not win this one either.

So, I am sticking with my conclusion that, as hard and unfair on Ukraine as this war might be, the attrition has gotten to Russia. They do not have a magic wand that effortlessly replaces their expenditures. They are not winning. They may end up with settlement and a critically reduced conventional warfare capacity, while facing a revived and expanded NATO alliance. This is the historic dream of at least an entire generation of Europeans and Americans. Because we are safer holding off the Russians in Europe and safer still if they have lost much of their army.

No Jacksonians were consulted in the forming of these opinions…

Nailed it!

Doc Mobile – listening to the real world is not playing to your strength is it?

We Europeans mor experience in the real world know we are on the list after ukraine, we also know after us will be you, and by then the US will be dog meat when Putin has the resources of Europe behind him.

Plus under Trump you will be no friend to anyone except Putin. The dollar will no longer be the world currency you will be too unreliable, no longer to be trusted with the label of the world's banker, that will come to Europe and the cost to the US of that happening will be beyond your comprehension.

You no longer live in a world where isolationism and hiding your head under a blanket are effective countermeasures to the real world. Freedom comes at a price, seems you no longer want freedom for your children.

Tort you tweaked my interest. So thought I'd look up their GDP. Looks like they took a hit initially, but have come back.

Russia is on a war footing now too, so are increasingly producing more war materials. I would assume modernization comes with that. Plus they are gaining wartime experience and clearing out their worst commanders.. again an assumption on my part.

Are the Russians using up their core troops, or what they consider dregs, I.e. their " foreign" troops (Chechens, etc), mercenaries, criminals, drug using youth? I don't know, but am curious if anyone knows.

Subject: Russia GDP 1997-2028 | Statista


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You Europeans need to be paying for your own defense. We are tired of doing it for you.

"God favors the big battalions."

They may end up with settlement and a critically reduced conventional warfare capacity, while facing a revived and expanded NATO alliance. This is the historic dream of at least an entire generation of Europeans and Americans.

Funny how I just found out that Russia wanted to join NATO -- and NATO said NO! Wasn't that an "historic dream" to end the spectre of major war in Europe for generations? Wouldn't that have been the ultimate success for NATO, that its former foe joined it? Nope. Not to be, the US and NATO said NO! If you really wanted peace and a peace dividend, why would our leaders do that?!?

How are the sanctions making Russia richer? Got data?

Here ya go – Russia's economy slumped in 2022-2023 but will grow 2.6% this year, rivaling it's last economic peak in 2013. So the Russian economy has not collapsed.

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Newsweek says the Russian economy is growing FASTER than the US economy.

Russia's War-Time Economy on Track to Outpace US Growth

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) forecast that Russia's economy will expand more quickly than the U.S. this year and faster than previously predicted three months ago has raised questions over the effectiveness of sanctions.

The IMF has said that Russia's economy will grow by 2.6 percent in 2024—more than double the 1.1 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) it made in October. By comparison, the U.S. economy will grow by only 2.1 percent this year, according to IMF figures. The Russian upgrade is the largest for any economy featured in an update to the fund's World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday.

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Peter Zeihan told me the Russian oil sector would collapse…but Russian oil exports barely wiggled at all, down slightly from 8.74M barrels/day before the War to 8.51M barrels/day

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Russian Consumer Spending and Per Capita income is up from the start of the War:

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*Russian imports are also up since the start of the War, when imports slumped with sanctions but are recovering.

*Not a surprise, China has stepped into the gap to replace Europe as Russia's key trading partner, doubling from $108 USDB/year to over $200 USDB since the War.

*Russian trade via US Dollars went from 80% to just 5% since the War, and Russia is actively courting BRICS countries to reject the Dollar as their reserve currency.

So….Russia isn't about to collapse, despite what we keep hearing from US media and politicians. I like Peter Zeihan's style, but he's been solidly wrong on all his Russian economic predictions -- and since he's a solid Establishment mouthpiece, that means our Establishment is wrong…and particularly the CIA, since Zeihan's time at Stratfor = time with the CIA.

Now what?

Interesting fact I heard today. What we now pay on our debt, is higher than what we spend on our military. This of course, is only getting worse.

"Programs that millions of Americans depend on and care about may be feeling a squeeze from interest costs on our high and rising national debt.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that interest payments will total $870 USD billion in fiscal year 2024 and rise rapidly throughout the next decade — climbing from $951 USD billion in 2025 to $1.6 USD trillion in 2034. In total, net interest payments will total $12.4 USD trillion over the next decade. Relative to the size of the economy, interest will rise from 3.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year 2025 to 3.9 percent in 2034. The previous high for interest relative to GDP in the post-World War II era was 3.2 percent in 1991 — that ratio would now be exceeded in 2025.

The federal government already spends more on interest than on budget areas such as:

Medicaid
Federal spending on children
Income security programs, which include programs targeted to lower-income Americans such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program; earned income, child, and other tax credits
Veterans' benefits
What is more, spending on interest will surpass federal outlays on major budget categories over the next few years:

In fiscal year 2024, the federal government will spend more on interest than on defense.
In fiscal years 2024 through 2026, interest payments will exceed the amount that the federal government spends on Medicare (net of offsetting receipts). Net Medicare spending will overtake interest payments in the following years, except for 2029.
In fiscal year 2025, the federal government will spend more on interest than on non-defense discretionary, which includes funding for transportation, veterans, education, health, international affairs, natural resources and environment, general science and technology, general government, and more.

What is more, interest will continue to outstrip other budget categories in the long term. CBO projects that interest will once again exceed the amount spent on Medicare (net of offsetting receipts) in 2046 and Social Security in 2051, at which point interest will be the largest category in the federal budget.

Looking ahead, lawmakers should chart a more stable, sustainable path for the federal budget that would alleviate the growing interest burden and help ensure that there is room in the budget for national priorities."

Russia, Iran, North Korea, Hamas, it's all the same war, between them and Israel and Ukraine and the West.

We need a long term strategy, and Kurt is right about that. We need to support Israel and Ukraine.
But that does not mean writing blank checks.

In WWII we knew what the goal was, what is the goal in Ukraine?
I think it should be kick the Russians out of Ukraine and return all occupied territories to Ukraine, including Crimea. But when does any American politician say that? Instead we dribble equipment to Ukraine and they don't have enough to win, but rather just keep the war going.

Trump says he wants a type of lend / lease for Ukraine, I don't think that is unreasonable. NATO has languished for decades and it was Trump who called them on their lack of spending. Even now some are reluctant to spend enough on their own defense.

The US has spent too much of immigrants and welfare for our own people and allowed China to take too many of our jobs. So has Europe. The West needs to unite against Iran, Russia, North Korea, Hamas and others who seek our destruction. But we need clear goals not vague promises.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Well I don't want to dive into the national debt. I think the Russian and Chinese economies are far from failing, which is not what I said, not exactly roaring either. China's massive real estate collapse, Russia running as a war economy – not really healthy or balanced. Russia's inflation rate is way bigger than ours and interest rates are in the mid teens. But it never was a great place to get a car loan- or a car. Unemployment is very low, er…many opportunities in the military. Even together they are a long way behind the US for now, which was my point.

Anyway, the point is they these two are not exactly well off in their current circumstances, due to, ah…various expenses and policies. And Russia has shed much blood. Compared to the US. IMO.

I have sometimes wondered out loud here if there are a lot of elite Russians troops hiding out in reserve while they conscript convicts and such.

I won't repeat my reasons for keeping up the pressure on Putin.

I would disagree that Trump was some sort of positive force for change with NATO. Nobody knew what to think about what he was saying and how it related to the big picture. This has not changed after the latest policy remarks.

Strange times…what would Reagan say, I wonder, about Putin and his old GOP?

Exactly how do we "win" against a power whose nuclear arsenal more or less matches our own? Those of you -- and the pols -- who are pushing for a complete Ukranian battlefield victory need to explain that. The Russians can change their regime, but no outsider can. And Putin seems to be popular.

Exactly how do we "win" against a power whose nuclear arsenal more or less matches our own?

Well that's an interesting problem and not necessarily unique to this situation. The US (or the French or British) can't be seen to fold on this either. Because next time you get into a game of nuclear poker and and you suddenly grow a new spine – that increases of the odds of the other side massively miscalculating.

Anyway we've urinated on every single one of Putin's redline vis a vie Ukraine and he's done exactly nothing. Because to an extent he's in the same situation.

Looking at many sources on all sides I've known since Bakhmut the Ukranians were losing militarily but if you said it on say Youtube when Bakhmut was still a fight you would be censored and shut down and called a Putin agent.

Including on TMP, but it seems Bill has had an epiphany over freedom of speech, the banner suggests it and it looks like he means it.

It seems people in 2024 can debate openly here, even if he might personally not agree with a poster, or strongly disagree – that is admirable. We need to hear all sides. I think people like Tortella are delusional but I would never demand his banning or deletion of his posts, I want to see where he comes from on the matter and debate it!

I see many in the establishment are still beyond delusional about reality but the "reality" is shifting for them.

In Podcast-land, War on the Rocks has given less and less coverage to Ukraine as the very pro-Ukraine host gets more and more dissapointed and frustrated with the pro-Ukraine (but more open to reality) expert he has on.

I heard The Team House guys recently talking to a guy about Ukraine, everyone agreed it was more about "winning the peace" now. Then they talked about a "bare minimum" peace agreement where Ukraine magically gets Donbas back. – LOL, good luck with that! It's the main area Russia went in to "liberate" from their perspective. And they paid for in hundreds of thousands of casualties, I'm sure they'll just give it back in a settlement! – L.O.L.

These Team House guys are "ex-military military experts" but they are trapped in a world of mutual masturbation where their delusion has been stroked by everyone they know for so long. Mentally to cope with it they have to gradually step back from their ludicrous dreams of invincible NATO trained Ukrainian super soldiers rolling across Crimea in M1s and Bradleys by now, and accept reality, gradually.

It's funny that a lot of what I said many months (and even years) ago is becoming obvious to many only now…
The Russians have practically taken Avdeevka… Ukraine announced the evacuation of troops, they will have to retreat across the fields, without roads, under the crossfire of Russian artillery. The most powerful fortified area that Ukraine has been building since 2014 has fallen…

"We Europeans mor experience in the real world "- UsCha

No Europe went into a slumber, reaped the peace dividend and let it's militaries rot. I have listened to European arrogance how they know better for decades… (i.e. more experience in the real world) Now Russia has tasered Europe with a wake up call.

"You Europeans need to be paying for your own defense. We are tired of doing it for you."-doc mcb

The mistake of the NATO charter was a pledge of 2% GDP. What is should have been was how many tanks, ships, planes and men each member will provide to the alliance etc! It can be scaled to the size and population of the country so please no caterwauling from Europe about how much bigger the USA is. Each member provides a modern up to date military not a bunch of mothballed obsolete garbage!

" This is the historic dream of at least an entire generation of Europeans and Americans._Tortorella

The dream was peace, trade and a safer world. Instead we get Cold War part two courtesy of a KGB relic having a childish tantrum because he lost the Cold War and the Soviet Union collapsed.

"But we have spent the last year chasing the objective of the Congress writing and passing legislation. We may not win this one either."- Tortorella

If the Ukraine war is lost it will be because Ukraine was not provided what it needed when it was needed in the quantity it was needed. Of course every person opposed to helping Ukraine will come out of the wood work and say, " See I told you so I was right all along".

"Those of you -- and the pols -- who are pushing for a complete Ukranian battlefield victory need to explain that."-docmcb

I am not pushing for it, seems less likely now. What would need to be done is to give Ukraine what it needs and bleed and hammer the Russians until they give up. It probably won't happen.

Caprum2 so is the core Russian population actually losing sons in this war, or is it the affiliated republics, mercenaries, criminals, lower end druggies/alcoholics/poor, perceived governmental opponents, etc.? I am honestly curious.

Dragon unless things have changed in Russia, it takes a lot of loss, before the Russians rise up. That loss has to effect the "haves" as well. Russian losses are no where near that. It takes something like the loses of WW1 and defeat.

IMO

@Cuprum

Russia will win but only because Ukraine was starved for weapons, munitions and aid. Russia may occupy part or all of Ukraine. In the end Russia will have lost…

1. NATO got bigger

2. Europe is rearming.

3. We now have Cold War part 2 and Russia is a pariah state hated and feared by it's neighbors. You can wave your hand and dismiss what that means… The rest of the world will improve Russia will fall further behind than it did during the Cold War.

"it takes a lot of loss, before the Russians rise up."-35thOVI

I am aware of that and that is the kind of losses that Ukraine needs to inflict, they could do it with aid.

I think the dream I was talking about was a less capable Russia, and less overt military aggression as a result. So yes, peace.

For decades Europe has allowed us to face Soviet/Russian aggression, threats etc. from European territories – physically adjacent to Putin, and in a major alliance. I always thought this was considered to be of major importance for US strategy. I don't buy that this is some sort of burden from which we get no advantage. The fundamental connections and relationships of the NATO alliance are far more important than some of the nuts and bolts being argued here, seemingly as deal breakers.

Mentally to cope with it they have to gradually step back from their ludicrous dreams of invincible NATO trained Ukrainian super soldiers rolling across Crimea in M1s and Bradleys by now, and accept reality, gradually.

The US and Western Politician's definition of victory was always stupid an unrealistic. Victory for Ukraine is that it's not conquered by Russia. That was Russian's chief war aim, not to resecure the Donbas regions it already controlled, but to take the whole country.

This victory condition is still achievable -- but only if the US/West and Ukraine give up their destructive fantasy of retaking everything. That was never going to happen, and particularly Crimea was never going to change hands -- you really think Putin would give up the only warm water port Russia has?

The peace terms only get worse from here – what would have been easy in 2022 at the Russian-Ukraine peace talks will now be more difficult.

And I must state this again – yes, Putin should not have invaded, he had no justification. But the US should also not have stopped the peace deal in 2022. What the US needs to do now is top pushing the Ukrainians to make counter offensives and get into a defensive porcupine mode that makes continued Russian assaults more and more costly, while minimizing Ukrainian casualties. Defend. Harass. Interdict. Then when there's truly a trenchline from the Black Sea to Byelorus and no forward progress is possible Russia will have no choice but to stop. Then you have your DMZ in place, and maybe over time negotiations can change the status.

Agreed, other than the peace deal, which I don't know much about. We are talking settlement, Ukraine survives, Russia exposed and weakened.

"..particularly Crimea was never going to change hands -- you really think Putin would give up the only warm water port Russia has?"

May be offer Putin Dardanelles instead of Crimea?
I think Putin will agree. Muscovites have always wanted to rule in Constantinople.

I think the dream I was talking about was a less capable Russia, and less overt military aggression as a result." -Tortorella

Agreed

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Townhall

@Dragon and Tort:

I think the dream I was talking about was a less capable Russia, and less overt military aggression as a result." -Tortorella

Agreed

We had a chance to do that -- our Leaders chose conflict. From the article:

You know, the biggest foreign policy mistake America made in the last 30 years was not, remarkably, Iraq. It was the failure to bring Russia into the Western European fold. Russia was never going to be a close friend, but it didn't have to be an enemy. It didn't have to be in lockstep with Xi and the mullahs. But here we are. It didn't help that the elite found Russia to be a useful punching bag. The conservative elite was comfortable with Russia as an enemy and the liberal elite found it domestically useful to attack Russia as part of its attack on Donald Trump. Remember how Hillary Clinton, who started the Russiagate lie, was also the halfwit who humiliated our country with that stupid reset button? You don't have to make excuses for Russia to understand that Russians are historically paranoid and that expanding NATO around it was going to get a negative reaction. Yes, I know NATO was never going to invade Russia, but Russians don't believe that. Russians are crazy, but they think what they think, and you need to be smart enough to understand that you don't get to tell the enemy what it gets to think. What a disaster.

Aint' that the truth!

There is no way to pin this on one side politically, as if it really could have been the simplest, easiest thing to solve.

This is one piece of history that will not be rewritten for politics. One of the things I remember my father telling me is that as WW2 went on, nobody in his bomb group wanted to bail out or get shot down inside Russian lines because there was a chance you would never be seen again.

The assumption that the Russians should have been treated better during the Cold War makes no sense to me. They were solidly against us, overran places like Hungary and Czechoslovakia, tried to put missiles in Cuba, confronted us whenever they could.

Now they are being led by one of those same kind of guys, still doing the same @#$&. Murdering his opposition, killing civilians in Ukraine, poisoning foreign nationals, annexing soverign states.

I am find it really hard to accept the political rewrite here. I know I will get buried under a mountain of counter argument. Lots of us grew up hiding under our desks during school civil defense drills. We were not hiding from Hillary.i am only naming her because of the tone of the original article.

I seem to remember an incredible amount of optimism and opportunities offered to Russia after Glasnost in particular. The West alone soured that, did it?
That's when Nato complacency set in.
So no, that ain't the truth.
And if you want to present reasonable arguments that hope to sway, or at least get others thinking, don't present such a pathetically partisan article.

There is no way to pin this on one side politically, as if it really could have been the simplest, easiest thing to solve.

Yes. Yes there is. One side wanted to do a Marshall Plan to engage Russia and see how we could draw Russia into the West. The other side didn't.

This is one piece of history that will not be rewritten for politics.

Too late! One side were characterized by Cold Warriors who opposed the Soviet Union. The other side didn't -- but now THAT side of former Soviet appeasers has become flag waving Russia Hawks!

The assumption that the Russians should have been treated better during the Cold War makes no sense to me.

Me too! And who said anything about that? All of my comments about Russia engagement pertain to the Post Cold War 1990s.

The USSR died. It was gone. No more Soviet Union, a new day dawned.

And in my personal, In-DC experience in the 1990s was that the professional Cold Warriors were the quickest to adapt and realize the game had changed, that we now needed to win the peace and try to prevent Russia from going down the same path Germany did after WW1. Too late! The "other side" didn't care about that at all – and got Wiemar Republic => Strongman => War. See how that worked out?

"and got Wiemar Republic => Strongman => War. See how that worked out?"

The "Weimar Republic" was inevitable, but because we did not stop the wars in Chechnya and continued to support the "Strong Man" in every way, we got a Big War.

"But the US should also not have stopped the peace deal in 2022."

You've been talking about it for the umpteenth time.

The Russians wanted to retreat back to the country's borders and start discussing reparations and contributions, the Ukrainians were of course fine with it, as it is the basis of the peace plan, but the evil Americans thwarted the negotiations?

35thOVI, all levels of society are fighting. Among the volunteers and those mobilized at the front there are deputies of parliaments at various levels, large businessmen, and officials of various ranks. And their children.

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Here, as an example, is a list of fighting at the front deputies of parliaments at various levels, compiled a year ago based on materials published in the media:

dzen.ru/a/ZEj_1Kk4bW9SZkpX

And this is the published list of ten deputies who died as of 05/26/23:

These are people who either went to the front as volunteers, or they were mobilized at their own request, since they have legal grounds for exemption from mobilization:

How can you not understand – in Russia this war is not considered a war against Ukraine. In Russia, this war is considered a war against the "creeping" aggression of NATO. The Russians believe that they are defending themselves – there will be no revolutions… The Russian army is being replenished with motivated volunteers, and the Ukrainian army is recruiting people who do not want to fight. The future result is obvious.
It doesn't matter how much help the West sends. It doesn't matter how many soldiers die. It is important to preserve Russia and the people (by this concept we mean all nationalities living on the territory of Russia).

No new day, just some new curtains. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Are you talking about the elections in Ukraine? Oh yes. There will be no elections… Neither parliamentary nor presidential…

@SBsMiniGuy

You said:

The US and Western Politician's definition of victory was always stupid an unrealistic.

Yep, agree.

Victory for Ukraine is that it's not conquered by Russia. That was Russian's chief war aim, not to resecure the Donbas regions it already controlled, but to take the whole country.

Nope. The attack on Kiev was to force the Uke Gov to negotiations over Donbas.

This victory condition is still achievable -- but only if the US/West and Ukraine give up their destructive fantasy of retaking everything.

Nup. Russia will never give up Donbas, as I said, they paid in hundreds of thousands of casualties and it was their primary war aim.

That was never going to happen, and particularly Crimea was never going to change hands -- you really think Putin would give up the only warm water port Russia has?

Yep, of course. Like I said. Do you know what one of the primary reasons for Putin's invasion was? It was that the CIA installed a pro-NATO Ukranian president in 2014. Previously Yanokovich had cooperated with the Russians and shared Sevastapol with Dem Rooskies. But the new guy, nah, he wasn't going to cooperate with Dem Rooskies. Kinda like if Gitmo was annexed by the Cubies, with Rooskie support. How do you think the good ol USA woulda reacted in that scenario? Smiles and good will? F*ck you, they woulda kicked ass to protect their national interest, same as Russia is now – like I said I don't "like" Russia, I don't even like my own government, but I RESPECT Russia. Same as I did when Reagan sent Rangers into Point Salinas (F*cken Commies wanna mess with the USA? Mess with the best- DIE like the rest.) I respected that sh*t SO much. Nationalism is the best. Fighting for your people and your countries best interests, nothing can beat it. SO yeah I don't like Putin, but I respect him and the West, Current US President Guy and his controllers, my Government? I hate them. I hate them for wasting my country's wealth on a fight that threatens a great nation's interests. A corrupt nation that Australia shares no connection to, only one that Globalist forces have ordered it to defend.

The peace terms only get worse from here – what would have been easy in 2022 at the Russian-Ukraine peace talks will now be more difficult.

Yeap, you who dream of Western hegemony are about to f around and find out what peace talks look like when your "inhuman Orc enemy" has just paid in blood and actually won. You still don't recognise Russian lives as equal to your own – AMAZING.

And I must state this again – yes, Putin should not have invaded, he had no justification.

He had EVERY justification. See my stuff abobe.

But the US should also not have stopped the peace deal in 2022.

Yep. And Boris Johnson. Responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of young men(?)

What the US needs to do now is top pushing the Ukrainians to make counter offensives and get into a defensive porcupine mode that makes continued Russian assaults more and more costly, while minimizing Ukrainian casualties. Defend. Harass. Interdict. Then when there's truly a trenchline from the Black Sea to Byelorus and no forward progress is possible Russia will have no choice but to stop. Then you have your DMZ in place, and maybe over time negotiations can change the status.

Yep, but if you think the peace deal is going to involve Russia just giving back Donbas, you are dreaming so hard man.

Caprum2

Thanks. Do you know anyone personally fighting in the Ukraine? Any friends or family at the front.

"How can you not understand – in Russia this war is not considered a war against Ukraine. In Russia, this war is considered a war against the "creeping" aggression of NATO. The Russians believe that they are defending themselves – there will be no revolutions… The Russian army is being replenished with motivated volunteers, "

Actually I do understand and have voiced opposition to NATO expansion and to the need of any alliance at all in peace time. It only leads to more world wars.

I have also talked about the vast "paranoia" of Russia in general. They have always believed that the world was against them and wanted what Russia has. Advancing NATO only fed that paranoia. (Currently IMO a baseless fear). But The Russian government has always accused others of doing what they are doing or what they are planning on doing. If one understands that, then anything Russia does, will not come as a surprise. Unfortunately too many western politicians have never grasped that concept.

Also too many western politicians have watched too much Star Trek and believe it is not fiction.

"I am Chekov, loyal Russian to American (Canadian) overacting Captain. Your vil is my command."

35thOVI yes, my nephew is fighting now (on the Russian side – he is now undergoing treatment after being wounded and is going to the front again. He is an officer of the Russian Guard) and my cousin is fighting (he is a citizen of Ukraine and is fighting on the Ukrainian side – but I don't know anything about his fate I've known for a year now).
Several friends are also fighting – they are all professional military personnel (and all wargame fans)))

As for paranoia… You are afraid of us, we are afraid of you… And everyone has their own reasons for mistrust. Isn't it?

SBsMiniGuy, you forgot about the Russian demands that preceded the attack two years ago. If these demands had been agreed upon, there would have been no war at all. But these demands were arrogantly rejected.
Russia simply turned out to be stronger than Western politicians expected. Well, war rarely goes according to plan.

Cuprum2 thanks for the information. Hopefully both sides will settle and men will stop dying on both sides. Doubtful.. but one can always hope.

"you forgot about the Russian demands that preceded the attack two years ago."

Yes, we remember these demands – give back our conquered but liberated territories without fight, we want to rape, torture and kill there.

"If these demands had been agreed upon, there would have been no war at all."

Indeed. If free World will surrender then there will be no war needed.

"But these demands were arrogantly rejected."

Obviously, we don't want to be raped, tortured and killed.

"Russia simply turned out to be stronger than Western politicians expected."

On the contrary, Russia turned out to be much weaker than West expected.
Instead of being the second army in the world, it was the second army in Ukraine.

"Well, war rarely goes according to plan."

This is true. Instead of taking Kiev in three days, the Muscovites were repulsed everywhere. And the Nazi nature of the Russians was revealed. Civilians turned out to be raped, tortured and killed by Russian einsatzgruppen.

Can we agree that regime change comes externally only through a comprehensive military defeat? Which CANNOT happen to a nuclear power.

The only way Putin goes away (other than common mortality) is by internal overthrow. But is not that more likely to happen if he "loses" the war by failing to achieve Russian objectives? I think Putin is likely to calculate it that way.

If there is a settlement it will have to give Russia enough for Putin to claim he won.

Oh yes… And you also forgot how the Russians raped all Ukrainian infants with teaspoons…

This reminds me of something. I remembered! A Kuwaiti girl, with tears in her eyes, telling the American Congress about the atrocities of Iraqi soldiers:

link

If scary stories pay well, then why not tell them at every opportunity? For some reason, most people have a memory as long as that of an aquarium fish.

doc mcb, Putin has already won his war. Even if he is defeated in Ukraine.
The world has become multipolar – and this cannot be changed…

Sho Boki, 2022 called, it wants its Western propaganda back.

Russian GDP is up due to massive spending on their military. Not because the economy has grown in the civilian sector.

Thanks

John

+1 John.

I don't quite agree doc. As long as Putin pulls the plug on the war, I don't care how many tanks he has left. At some point the return on his war gamble will not be worth it if Ukraine keeps fighting him, nukes or not. You could starve a nuclear power, bankrupt it. And if Putin nukes Ukraine, he ends up with next to nothing.

"Sho Boki, 2022 called, it wants its Western propaganda back."

I don't understand a bit. Who wants? What kind of propaganda?