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"the shape of wars to come" Topic

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doc mcb15 Nov 2023 6:25 a.m. PST


"Women around the world are having fewer than two children. But while population decline is well underway in most nations, there are a handful of nations that are still experiencing a population explosion. The implications of this challenge the foundations of cultural and national independence, most particularly in nations whose populations have stopped reproducing. The nations still experiencing rapid population growth have cultural traditions that stand in stark contrast to the nations with stable and declining populations. These profound demographic and cultural differences, when combined with a massive and ongoing transfer of people from high birth-rate nations into low birth-rate nations, introduces the potential for polarization on an almost unimaginable scale."

doc mcb15 Nov 2023 6:34 a.m. PST

"South Korea's current fertility per woman is a dismal 0.78, and those are extinction-level numbers. At that rate of reproduction, for every 1 million Koreans of childbearing age today, there will only be 51,000 great-grandchildren. South Korea is on track to disappear in less than a century."

doc mcb15 Nov 2023 6:36 a.m. PST

"At what point do tribal hatreds, or just an unprecedented level of differences in tradition and culture between immigrant and host populations, erase the potential for reconciliation and unity? What brand of charismatic leadership can motivate millions of bitter rivals to abandon ages of murderous feuds and choose to unify, and how rare is that? Can debates over what constitutes an optimal political and economic system, inherent in any democracy but enough by itself to periodically engulf nations in civil conflict, withstand in addition to that historic instability the added challenge of tribal conflicts?"

Personal logo StoneMtnMinis Supporting Member of TMP15 Nov 2023 7:55 a.m. PST

Demographics are destiney.

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP15 Nov 2023 9:59 a.m. PST

So … the 1st World is having less children but the 3d World is popping them out like waffles in a toaster. . So they will "win" by outnumbering the West because they keep having more kids …?

However, at last count the USA has about 8 million illegal aliens … If half of them have babies … well … never mind…

doc mcb15 Nov 2023 11:32 a.m. PST

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death.

Col Durnford Supporting Member of TMP15 Nov 2023 4:05 p.m. PST

This is already going on on our southern border. One good thing I can say is that we are getting far better people than Europe.

lkmjbc315 Nov 2023 4:22 p.m. PST

Spengler writes extensively on this.

More modern writers such as Land and Yarvin have added to this.

Joe Collins

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP15 Nov 2023 6:16 p.m. PST

Col Dumford +1

The open US Southern border is a big threat to the citizens of America. Drugs, criminals, terrorists and too many people to effectively control, house, feed, etc.

Gray Bear15 Nov 2023 8:17 p.m. PST

It is an integral part of the planned and orchestrated destruction of Western Civilization.

Gray Bear15 Nov 2023 8:20 p.m. PST

"… at last count the USA has about 8 million illegal aliens…"

Triple that number.

Dagwood15 Nov 2023 11:30 p.m. PST

South Korea's grandchildren seems to be out by a factor of 10…

I would be more likely to believe someone if they get the basic maths right

Griefbringer16 Nov 2023 8:27 a.m. PST

South Korea's grandchildren seems to be out by a factor of 10…

The number quoted by doc mcb was for great-grandchildren, not for grandchildren. My calculations (assuming that exactly 50 % of children are female) give a bit higher number than the quoted 51,000 though they get pretty close. Please notice that the referred fertility rating of 0.78 is per woman and not by inhabitant (and that is how they are usually counted).

My math runs like this:

- 1st generation: 1 000 000 persons, of whom 500 000 women
- 2nd generation: 500 000 x 0.78 = 390 000 persons, of whom 195 000 women
- 3rd generation: 195 000 x 0.78 = 152 100 persons, of whom 76 050 women
- 4th generation: 76 050 x 0.78 = 59 319 persons (great-grandchildren of the 1st generation)

For a population to remain at a stable level, the fertility level per woman should be around 2.

Personal logo Legion 4 Supporting Member of TMP16 Nov 2023 8:50 a.m. PST

Grey Bear +2

As I have said, a small very well-funded vocal far-left, progressive woke minority is running the nation. To our doom … It appears many in charge are puppets of this "mob" and their $ of anti-American culture, history, etc.

I have no problem with immigrants as long as they do it legally. Like my kin did in 1905 coming from Europe …

HMS Exeter Supporting Member of TMP16 Nov 2023 2:40 p.m. PST

From what I understand, "globalization" is devolving. Labor in Mexico is way cheaper than China, tho far less numerous. A lot of countries are engaged in "reshoring," bringing important production facilities home, or close by, or to reliably friendly bargain shops.

China will be the big loser here.

A lot of our inflation is, and will continue to be, American reindustrialization. This is going to require a lot of bodies. Fortunately, our birth rate, while not great, isn't terrible. We're going to need a stable, sane, robust, immigration policy in place, and right quick or the market will do it for us, courtesy of the Southern border.

StillSenneffe16 Nov 2023 3:13 p.m. PST

HMS Exeter- I think that is a sensible evaluation. The elastic of Chinese economic expansion is starting, aided by negative demographics, to really pull it backwards relative to the US over the medium term. Outsiders view but the US is a lot stronger than it might feel to some inside it…

Problem with China's economic and demographic elastic pulling backwards is that they, like many dictatorships before them, might seek a foreign policy adventure to make their people feel good. If so, at least this is a contingency the US military has already given plenty of consideration to. Think it's planning priority no1 for the RN too.

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