"What Happens If Ukraine Can’t Beat" Topic

"War is a fickle and unpredictable thing, it must be acknowledged. Sometimes wars that appear to be going one way can change on a dime and victory can be grasped from the jaws of defeat. It is also true that at present, no one can guarantee that either Putin or Zelensky won't buckle and lose their political will and could succumb to the other. More often than not, however, the fundamentals that have always determined the winners and losers in war hold fast (the side with the advantage of force ratios and logistics/supplies almost always prevails)".

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The war can end tomorrow if Russia just gives back the stolen lands. No winners, no losers just the world everyone agreed to as the Soviet Union falls back into the trash bin of history.

No. This is impossible.
This war will end either with the collapse of Russia or the collapse (or serious defeat) of the neoliberal world order.
There are no other options anymore. The point of no return has long been passed.

No blissful peace came after the disappearance of the USSR.

If Ukraine can't drive out you guys, the rest will join NATO and the EU and prosper…
Russia on the other hand will suffer from continued sanctions and sacrificing its wealth to rebuild its armed forces (with vehicles from a few generations ago due to a lack of modern parts). Oh, and don't take any domestic flights, not every stolen Airbus will be as lucky as the one from yesterday.
Welcome to the second North Korea… or the CCP's vassal state… assuming they survive…

You don't need to tell me about the prosperity of NATO and the EU. This is no longer entirely true, and the crisis will only deepen.
Of course, the standard of living in Russia decreased somewhat as a result of the sanctions, but this made it possible to launch our own production in Russia – and this is wonderful. As production increases, the standard of living will also increase. I don't see anything wrong with Russia itself processing its own raw materials and not selling them to the West.
We will make the missing spare parts ourselves. Even if at first they will be worse than imported ones, but Russia has already passed this path many times and will do it again.
Russia has made its own passenger planes before and will make them again. And there's no need to gloat too much – just look at the number of train accidents in the USA. I think it's time to do something about this ;-)
Russia has existed under sanctions for centuries. We know how to do it. And no one has ever managed to isolate it completely and for a long time. And this time it didn't work either)))
Vassal of China? Is it worse than a vassal of the West? So far, China is not dictating to us what to do and how to act. And the West has been doing this for many years. And he is doing this now with his European vassals.

Chill Cuprum2. The war is not existential. Just cause you lose does not mean Russia will cease to exist.

But what you do is setting the stage for Russia to use nukes. Your country has repeatably said you will use nukes if "Russia is threatend for its existance".

Now you claim this is exactly that war…

Just back down and keep within your borders and no one will care about you.

And, nope, Russia will never succeed on its own manufacturing goods. That is not how it works. Russia lacks the skills and know how. You do not have the "brain power" to succeed. You will be a vassal and colony for China to use and abuse.

Russia has invited North Korea to visit so they can talk about North Korea helping Russia. One of the worst nations in the world is the best ally of Russia. That's a sad state of affairs for Russia.

China will play the long game, China wants the war to drag on and on so Russia will become weaker and weaker. Eventually China will have a special military operation to liberate and protect those poor ethnic Chinese people who live in Siberia from Russia oppression.

And all the Russia soldiers and ammo will be in Ukraine.

It won't be tomorrow or next month, or next year, but the best thing Russia can hope for is Ukraine wins before the year after that, because if not, China is coming. Russia has only been successfully invaded from the East, China knows this.

China does not want war against Japan, or Taiwan, or the USA.

They want to take over 1/2 of Russia without any significant loses, after all China is a land power with unlimited manpower. They can afford to lose a couple million people to take Siberia, and the other parts of Russia that are rightfully part of China.

So while Russian soldiers are facing Ukraine, keep an eye out for China at your back.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

"…Of course, the standard of living in Russia decreased somewhat as a result of the sanctions, but this made it possible to launch our own production in Russia – and this is wonderful. As production increases, the standard of living will also increase. I don't see anything wrong with Russia itself processing its own raw materials and not selling them to the West…."

As CEO and with a Phd in International Laws and other in Foreign Commerce … with 40 years at my back as experience… I can tell you that none… and I repeat… NONE country could progress without an strong relationship with another countries (the greater the quantity the better)… even USA or CHINA… so, if Russia persist with this kind of Wars… the future is more than North Korea or Worst… totally divided into several Ukraines…

I feel sorry for Russians… imho not bad people… but you have to lern to vote in real democracy…

Armand

Soledad, you are wrong. The war, alas, is precisely of an existential nature, since regime change as a result of military defeat will certainly lead to an aggravation of internal and external conflicts for Russia.

Tactical nuclear weapons will not be used, since they will not provide any special advantages in military terms, but will sharply alienate all of its allies and fellow travelers from Russia. This is tantamount to defeat. If nuclear weapons are used, they will be strategic weapons, with all the ensuing consequences. But this is only possible with NATO's direct entry into the war.

Russia has sufficient production and scientific potential for rapid development. It is now in much better conditions than the USSR in the 20s of the last century. It worked then, and it will work now.

Bunkermeister, there is no evidence yet that North Korea helped Russia in any way. There are only words that are not confirmed by anything. But using North Korea's production capacity in exchange for providing it with Russian technology, food and resources is a good solution. Is South Korea providing support to Russia's opponents? Well then, Russia will take similar steps.

China does not pose a threat to Russia now. In addition, for Russian nuclear weapons, the size of the population in those territories that are subject to a nuclear strike by Russian missiles does not matter.
China's wars will take place on the territories of non-nuclear countries, and Russia is now China's natural traveling companion. We now have much more common interests than contradictions. Thanks to the West for that ;-)

By the way…. some enlighten news today….

The West is trembling, the "time of trouble" is approaching: Russia is falling apart?

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What a soldier's complaints tell us about Russia's war effort

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Russia wants to recruit 420,000 soldiers despite the country being crippled by labor shortages, UK intel says

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Armand

Tango, since you have such experience, you should see that Russia is not isolated now. And can not be completely isolated. Russia is not Iran or North Korea – different scales and other possibilities. Real economics and politics will always prevail over ideology)))

Russia clearly outlined its goals before the war in Ukraine began. It seems to me that those demands no longer seem so outrageous against the backdrop of subsequent events:

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Tango, but this is just propaganda)))
You tell me about the problems that exist in Russia – isn't it funny to you? It's the same as me starting to tell you about the problems that exist in your country…
Stupidity.

Let's remember, for example:
- Russian soldiers run away
- the Russians are running out of missiles and ammunition, tanks, etc.
- Russians have nothing to eat, the Russian economy is torn to shreds, Russian conscripts have fled abroad…
And blah, blah, blah…

A year and a half of war, the third month of an ineffective Ukrainian offensive, Ukraine is forced to conscript sick people into the army and demands the extradition of its men of military age from abroad…

You would have pity on the Ukrainians. They fight bravely. But they will soon simply end.

Venezuela is not Isolated now… as North Korea… any country is completely isolated on this days… but progress with your fellow countries is another thing…

If you compare for example your actually partners with so many others in the rest of the World … the result is patetic…

Also… you have to take note the geopolitic … it's not the same (for Russia) doing business and trade with African countries that with European Ones…

Russia really progress was at peace and when they began to incorporate life and work values like in Western Europe… you can see that… peace is neccesary and not living with the anguish of a loved relative could dying or worse in a war… not to mention the use of weapons of mass destruction on your head.

I understand the move that Putin made in wanting to invade Ukraine… but it is time for Russians to admit that it went wrong… and that you have to return to the previous Status Quo…

Armand

Armand

Yes, the war turned out to be not the cakewalk that the current Russian leadership had hoped for. But defeat in this war will cost too much, and I personally don't see any special prerequisites for such a defeat.
No status quo is possible anymore. The West left neither itself nor Russia any room for maneuver.

However, today I read an interesting opinion from Oleg Tsarev, a former candidate for president of Ukraine. Some things he said make you think:

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Sometimes machine translation is very funny. To call SVO (Special Military Operation) the Great Patriotic War is very funny)))

Oh yes. Russia has not progressed in the last thirty years, but has degraded. Under Putin, this process has slowed down significantly, but has not stopped. In my opinion, Russia needs significant changes and I don't know how capable Putin is of this.

Well…my friend… leading your country into a senseless war shows a notable driving disability… imagine for a moment if any other country in the West had suffered Putin's human losses and war humiliation… that leader would lose any election and the troops would return home…

Be safe
Armand

Wait… The recent US and coalition flight from Afghanistan?

Wait ? How many did the west lose in the 20 years of Afghanistan? How many has Russia lost so far ?

War is big business, lots of people with connections make money.
Everyone else pays the bill.

The war can easily end tomorrow as McKinstry pointed out. I would add to those conditions a full and complete package of reparations to Ukraine 🇺🇦 and a complete processing of war crimes committed by Russia and its forces upon the Ukrainian people in their land.

"Ukraine is forced to conscript sick people into the army and demands the extradition of its men of military age from abroad" blah blah blah,

Tally Ho!

backstab, well, Russia is not at war with a medieval state, which, of all the achievements of civilization, has only a Kalashnikov assault rifle)))

14Bore, all wars are ultimately always fought solely for the sake of money in one form or another.

Fitzovich, you speak as if Russia is eager to end the war under any pretext. This is wrong. Until the current Kiev regime is destroyed, any end to the war is only a short-lived truce. And this will result in even greater casualties in the future. The war must end with the unconditional surrender of one of the parties.

nickinsomerset

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"The war must end with the unconditional surrender of one of the parties."

Very true indeed.
If Ukraine wins, there will be peace in Europe.
If muscovites wins, there will be World War inevitable as muscovites will not stop.
So the unconditional surrender of muscovites is the best solution indeed.

What happens if Ukraine can't beat Russia?

All Ukrainians in Ukraine will die. Those Ukrainians willing to call themselves "Russian" will live as slaves.

Sho Boki, world war, in my opinion, is already inevitable. There are too many problems and contradictions, too little tolerance and compromise.
And Russia will by no means play the main role in this war…

Straw Plaiter, I've never heard anything more stupid before)))

Truth is stupid?

Very Russian statement. :-)
War is Peace, Truth is Lie, Aggression and Occupation are Liberation.. etc.

"world war, in my opinion, is already inevitable."
Yes, after Putin took power, world war becomes inevitable, true.

"And Russia will by no means play the main role in this war.."
Yes, Russia only start it. But if muscovites will unconditionally surrender and hang Putin, they don't start the World War and there will be Peace in Europe.

Cuprum2 – "world war, in my opinion, is already inevitable."

Russia thought that there were only a few true Ukrainians so sent in a small force which they thought would do the job in 3 days. Kill the elite and the rest will conform to the Russian order. They quickly realised that there were 44 million true Ukrainians – this is why over 90% of Russian shells and exposive devices have been aimed at civilian targets. World War is inevitable if Russia won't back down and decides to use nuclear weapons to fulfill its policy of the genocide of Ukrainians. If Cuprum2 and his mates got out their pitchforks and marched on Putin Towers he could save the world.

But defeat in this war will cost too much,

Define too much?

In defeat Russia loses not one inch of her land , regains contacts with most civilized nations as pretty much anyone sane would trade Western Europe for North Korea, Iran and Venezuela. Yes they've totally screwed up on NATO driving Sweden and Finland into the fold but since that is a defensive alliance only, not one square inch of Russia remains at risk.. Not dominating people who do not want or like you is hardly an existential risk.

Losing Putin and the rest of the kleptocracy would be a huge gain for the Russian people almost as great as losing the Cold War and seeing the end of Central Planning, the KGB and all those brainless apparatchiks.

As noted … the war will be over when Putin/Russia leaves all of the Ukraine's territory … period. But we know the Russians/Putin made a tactical & strategic error with this unprovoked invasion.

He has to make all the losses of Russian blood & treasure, look like it was for something. Which IMO it will be a very hard sell … to anyone. As well as the West sees the Russian military is marginal at best. Suffering huge losses, with very little to gain for it.

Plus Finland joining NATO, with a 800 mile border with Russia. BTW members of the US Army's 10th MTN Div. is training in Finland now. If US/NATO upset Putin by training in Poland as well as other NATO nation. Vlad … *F'd* up big time. He feared NATO's expansion, which really was not happening. His imperialistic invasion of Ukraine only made that a reality.

There is no way to paint this as anything but an unprovoked invasion of a neighboring nation. Plus add Putin is a war criminal.

"Until the current Kiev regime is destroyed, any end to the war is only a short-lived truce"

And there you go, until the Ukraine becomes part of a new Soviet Union, it has all been about regime change to a puppet regime,

Tally Ho!

"No status quo is possible anymore. The West left neither itself nor Russia any room for maneuver."

Complete BS. And you should know that.

"There is no way to paint this as anything but an unprovoked invasion of a neighboring nation. Plus add Putin is a war criminal."

Right on the nose, Buddy!

The war will go on until Putin is no longer in Power. Even if the Russian could dominate most of Ukraine there still would be a war.

There is way too much hysterical posturing on this thread, almost all of it from a single poster (you know who you are). But historically, all that apocalyptic hand-wringing is so much nonsense, reflective of an unwillingness to accept the grim but undramatic truth of the decline of the russian state.

russia has lost many wars in the past, and this will be another of them. The idea that 'russia doesn't lose wars' is just copium for russia's docile xenophobic masses (who seem to have a pretty poor grasp of their own history). Historically, of course russia loses wars- like all states lose wars. The key is not to lose important wars- though it's a bit late for putin to realise that now…

In February 2022, I was pretty sure that russia was getting itself into deep trouble because its aggression against Ukraine would lead it into a decades-long Iraq/Afghanistan style insurgency in a country it had managed to overrun, but which always refused to submit. How wrong I (and many others) were about that outcome!! I had definitely absorbed far too much of the 'prevailing wisdom' in those days (seems impossible now that we believed it) about russia's military competence.

But more broadly, russia is in the process of its final transition from even pretension to great power status. It is changing from being a great power to simply a geographically large country. This is not a special criticism of russia: the UK has clearly gone through this loss of great power status, but we have taken the essential reality on board some decades ago. This historical process is quite far advanced in russia's case although the putin government and the delusions it sells to the mass of the russian people, is making that transition much more traumatic.

UK doesn't have much independent power any more, so we look to create influence of various kinds- economic, military etc. That doesn't mean the UK has no power, but it's no longer a great power: there are more realistic ways forward. In russia's case, the decline is accelerating rapidly because of putin's grotesque misjudgement of basic geopolitics in launching russia's aggression against Ukraine. putin's foolish error has only moved things in one direction as far as russia is concerned. I think everyone who has contributed to this thread would personally (if not publicly) acknowledge that.

russian forces will, I am fairly sure, be militarily expelled from all of Ukrainian territory during the course of this war. Ukraine will almost certainly join the EU, and might join NATO. The outcome of that for current russia is not great, and it has to a realistic possibility that significant areas that the kremlin currently calls 'russia' will break away in a new phase of self-determination (finally dissolving the remains of what has effectively been a muscovite empire throughout tsarist and communist times). So, I think it's quite possible that what will emerge from that post-putin era will be a much smaller 'muscovy', bordered by new independent states that are Western/Chinese orientated.

A post-imperial russia/muscovy would possibly, finally, give it the chance for genuine economic development beyond supplying cheap fossil fuels, and political/social development of a real democracy where the result of elections is not pre-determined. We can but hope for the last bit……

shoigu may have be genuine when he said "defeat is not an option for us". He's quite right- it is the option that faces their successors.

Seems to me that we're past a turning point in this war.

Russia's army is so degraded that it cannot even launch a successful attack anywhere on an extended frontline. There are no more elite or even well-trained infantry. The officers are imcompetent, and there never have been any NCOs. Its armor, artillery, radars and aircraft are shockingly depleted, with no realistic prospect of replacement within a decade.

This means that Ukraine will increasingly be dominant on the battlefield against Russia.

I thought that a significant number of front line Russian units were still in Russia as a defense force. Is that still the case or not? These could be rotated in for a combat tour, but I don't think that there is anything but conscripts left to replace them. I guess another option is to make provisional battalions out existing units for combat deployment.

79th PA: here is my twopence/five cents' worth:
The formations that are still in russia are mostly now raw troops: a few pre-war army, some reservist mobiks, and thousands of raw conscripts.
AFAIK, most units once thought vaguely combat-capable (often stripped away from their parent formation and deployed ad hoc) have already been in Ukraine once or twice and lost many of their people each time, being refilled with recruits.
Where formations do remain outside the Ukraine theatre, and haven't detached many/most of their constituent units to fight there (thus leaving a skeleton formation), the units remaining in russia have still given up many of their trained personnel as individual reinforcements.
So, by one means or another, many of the actual people who had the 'best' level of pre-war training, are now already pushing up sunflowers, whatever unit/formation they originally came from.
I don't think there are many 'fresh Siberian Rifle Divisions' to come to the rescue this time. Who knows, maybe I'm wrong….

I like this exchange of free speech we see on these boards very much and i am pleased that it continues. What I do notice though is a blind unthinking acceptance of the western propaganda that is then repeated in the posts. As gamers I think we all have probably studied some aspect of history at different levels and must all be aware of the role propaganda plays in geopolitics/war. That is why I am often shocked by the unwillingness to recognise it and parrot it out here in posts. The us/eu point of view is blindly accepted, from washing machine parts in tanks to russia blowing the oil pipeline, russia is running out of soldiers and munitions ect. Yet the facts that ukrain has 400.000 casualties, has no air force and the offensive has failed is just brushed aside. Russia talks to north Korea that must be bad, the us/eu is cozy with saudi arabia that is good. Russia invaded for no reason ect, yet in 62 we were on the edge of armageddon because ussr planned to put rockets in cuba next to the us. Guess what, they ended it with negotiations and the sooner this is ended with negotiations and the killing stops the better as far as I am concerned.

I don't know about you but Im going to bed.

+1 Ned Ludd

I think that negotiations are only likely to begin when russia leaves (willingly or not), all of the Ukrainian sovereign territory that it has invaded and occupied since 2014.

Would russia negotiate with people who stole its sovereign territory? I think you know the answer to that.

Come to that- should any of the countries from where TMP posters hail, negotiate with people who invaded and stole THEIR sovereign territory?? Please shout up if you think your country should negotiate with invaders.

So let's not perpetuate a delusion.

Ned Ludd: "the sooner this is ended with negotiations and the killing stops the better as far as I am concerned"

And how do you convince muscovites to return into their borders, pay contributions-reparations and negotiate?
Cuprum has a right here – only unconditionally surrender of muscovites will save the World, there are no more options left. Beside the overthrow of the Putin by muscovites himself.

So, as far as I can tell, after Russia's victory in this war, the West will experience a real shock… The war is not about the territory of Ukraine, the war is about reformatting the world. Rebellion against the hegemony of the West. Ukraine is only a battlefield on which this issue is being resolved.
The author of the article asks a timely question, but this is only a voice crying in the wilderness.

Do you really think russia is going to achieve victory??

BTW, there is no such thing as Western hegemony- it's a completely fake concept and always has been. It's just an illusion that can be propagated, and delusion that can be swallowed, in countries like russia that are angry and ashamed with themselves about the fact that their place in the world is not what they think it should be.

It's always the West's fault for having their (fictitious) hegemony- never their own fault for all the self-created problems and political/economic misjudgements. russia is not the only country that suffers from that delusion of course- many countries like russia find it easier to blame the West for their own problems- we're used to it! Let me tell you something- countries in the West (not that they remotely possess the collective cohesion to behave hegemonically in the first place) don't feel very hegemonic at all- we're just more realistic and don't feel as sorry for ourselves.

If countries like russia are angry that they aren't taken seriously by the 'hegemonic powers'- it's because they believe all this nonsense babble.

"So, as far as I can tell, after Russia's victory in this war, the West will experience a real shock…"

Indeed, indeed. And therefore fantasies about muscovites victory are wet dreams only.

"But what we're experiencing now is more than a test of the post-Cold War order. It's the end of it".

Antony J. Blinken

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StillSenneffe, am I blaming the West? No. The West acts in its own interests – and rightly so. The only question is how far-sighted his actions are.
Every country and every people has its own interests – and this is also correct. And indeed, everyone is to blame for their own problems. Do you feel humiliated? Stand up and fight…

Afghanistan 2.0

From the unusual:

New deputy of the Bashkir Regional Council Jeff Monson. Elected in last week's elections ;-)

This means that Ukraine will increasingly be dominant on the battlefield against Russia.

Yes, and it will go even better if the US/NATO gives them everything they need to throw Russia off their land.

StillSeneffe +2

Guess what, they ended it with negotiations and the sooner this is ended with negotiations and the killing stops the better as far as I am concerned.

And the Russians hold on to Ukrainian territory they occupy ? That is only a precursor of another Russian attack 5-10 years from now. The Ukraine does not want some of their terrain under Russian control. What is so hard to understand ?

If the country where you[that is not pointing a finger at anyone here] live was attacked and occupied by an aggressor. Would you want them to take and keep your lands ? Kill, etc., your family, friends, etc. ?

I don't understand what is so hard to get … ?

"But what we're experiencing now is more than a test of the post-Cold War order. It's the end of it".

Antony J. Blinken

Don't get me started ! As I will be DH'd for sure ?

"I do notice though is a blind unthinking acceptance of Putins propaganda that is then repeated in the post"

There changed it for you,

Tally Ho!

Ukraine got 31 Abrams tanks and a few Leopards and other advanced Western weapons. The US has 2,000 Abrams in storage, we should give them 1,000 Abrams tanks, we are never going to use them for anything.

I think the Ukrainians had no intention of a major offensive this year, just a series of probing attacks and on the job training to test their new tactics and new equipment. And if the Russians crumbled, they would take the victory but I don't think they expected that.

But next summer they will have a lot more Western tanks, and aircraft and missiles and Russia will have been weakened further by internal strife and sanctions. I think the real battles will begin next spring, because by then Ukraine would be ready.

China may be ready to visit Siberia by then too.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Instead of Ukraine defeat…

Should we worry about Russia's defeat as Ukraine inches closer to victory?

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Armand