"Iraq, Iran & some Kurds ..." Topic

From Military.com

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Welcome to the Brave New World where Chinese $$$ buys off everyone the Persian Gulf while the US alienates them.

Weren't the Kurds allies of the US in a couple of conflicts over there? I may be remembering it wrong though.

Yes, they were until our last leader bailed on them and left them to die on their own.

FWIW this is one of a number of Kurdish factions … this one is from Iran, IIRC. This does not include all Kurds, e.g. the Turks hate some factions too. It is like many things in that region. Religion, tribes, ethnicities, etc. dominate way too much in the 21st Century.

The Chinese are still heavily dependent on Arab oil. Which gives us a nice long vulnerable supply line to throttle in the event of war.

US oil production is now the highest in the world, will set records this year and next. But we still import Arab oil, go figure. Market forces, profits.

The Kurds never get a break, they just get sold out, I think. It is so confusing there that I can hardly follow the parties. Sounds like they are ending up with nothing.

US oil production is now the highest in the world, will set records this year and next. But we still import Arab oil, go figure. Market forces, profits.

Well if so the price of gas and groceries should not be as high as they are, yes ? The US in not energy independent, but it should be energy dominate. Those in power pushing the Green agenda have openly claimed to be at war with fossil fuel. IMO it appears they are …

The Kurds never get a break, they just get sold out, I think. It is so confusing there that I can hardly follow the parties. Sounds like they are ending up with nothing.

Like many in the Mid East & A'stan there are so many factions. Some with different agendas etc. There will never really be peace …

No peace, I agree Legion. This has gone on for centuries and it's certainly beyond my understanding. Except as a place of danger and entanglement.

Yup, we are the oil number one. This is a record production year. If we as a people controlled our own energy, there would be no problem. We also have a huge amount of natural gas. Should be clear sailing, but if you thought this whole things was about Dems and Repubs, I think you would be missing the mark. The markets, the quality of oil, prices and most of all profits run this show.

And just for grins, consider the Salton Sea in CA, perhaps the greatest deposit of lithium in the world. It's there in staggering amounts, it appears, making us the Saudi Arabia of lithium. And just to sweeten our good fortune, it is contained in steaming geothermal brine which can power the extraction process pollution free and at little cost once the tech is in. Plants are already under construction or planning. This includes the big US auto makers.

Green is about business. It's drawing investors and is viewed favorably by US businesses. It's always about money. Big oil is fighting for every last dollar, attacking green and investing in green at the same time, telling everyone how green they are going.

We will see about all of this. Tech is moving faster and faster. It makes me wary….

US airstrike in Somalia kills 13 al-Shabab fighters

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Armand

+1 Legion4 – yep, there is no "The Kurds" -- there's the PKK, KCK, KPC, PYD (a PKK offshoot in Syria), Tev-Dem, YPG, YPJ, KNC, DBK, KRG, Peshmerga, KDP, and the PUK.

Given the shifting alphabet soup of factions, forgive me if I err -- but I believe the primary faction of Kurds that the US worked with in the Gulf War is the KDP, and we worked with them in the fight against Al Qaeda.

+1 SB very impressive! No wonder there is never any peace and we don't get what goes on there.

It's the British, iirc in or around 1918 let the Kurds down initially by not not giving them a country.
They have repeatedly been mistreated, massacred and left in the lurch since then. A great shame.

The markets, the quality of oil, prices and most of all profits run this show.

Yes, but why are prices at the pump and store are still so high if the US is producing all the oil the US needs ? Or am I missing something ?

Green is about business. It's drawing investors and is viewed favorably by US businesses. It's always about money. Big oil is fighting for every last dollar, attacking green and investing in green at the same time, telling everyone how green they are going.

Yes no matter how bad it gets … someone makes a profit.

We will see about all of this. Tech is moving faster and faster. It makes me wary….

Remember what Ike said …

US airstrike in Somalia kills 13 al-Shabab fighters

Kill as many of them as often as we can … Good shoot'n boys !

SBmini +10 … I don't think you missed any … does not matter really. Again,as long a tribal affiliation, religion, etc. dominates throughout the region and A'stan, someone will always be killing someone. It's seems that is how they do things there. And has been for decades …

Andy +1 After WWI and the fall of the Ottoman Empire, long dead European politicians divided up the Mid East, etc. to suit themselves. E.g. creating Iraq … we all know the history there.

Legion, it's not our oil, it belongs to the oil companies. They buy and sell in the global market to make the best deals. They still import oil from the Saudis while selling American oil overseas to the highest bidder. We pay whatever they say, not the government. They continue to make record profits. That the system.

It's one big marketplace. I routinely pay the equivalent of $10 USD a gallon in the UK depending on the exchange rate.

Ike! There was a man who knew how to run a big operation!

No wonder there is never any peace and we don't get what goes on there.

Yep. I think it's hard as Americans and Westerners in general, who are pretty secure and safe, to understand the survival mindset of nations and factions in the Middle East and other countries. It's all about what works NOW to achieve their survival and expansion goals. There are no long term allies, only short term alliances of conveniences until things change, and my enemy becomes my ally and my ally my enemy. And it may all change again tomorrow.

Remember under Trump the US "abandoned the Kurds in Syria" -- oh man, what a media firestorm of outrage and umbrage! Stupid orange man bad, how dare he not support our Kurdish Allies!!!

Well, the Kurds the US "abandoned" in Syria was one of several Syrian Kurdish groups, and the one in this case was called the PYD and was an offshoot of the PKK (militant Communist Kurdistan Worker's Party – which is an internationally recognized terrorist group -- so why were we supporting them in the first place?

In any event, within 24 hours of the US "abandoning" them, this anti-Assad group announced an alliance with -- the Assad Regime.

Legion, it's not our oil, it belongs to the oil companies.

Well … 3 years ago, there was no war on fossil fuels, the US was energy dominate. Fuel, food, etc. cost much less … Hmmm … what changed ?

It's all about what works NOW to achieve their survival and expansion goals. There are no long term allies, only short term alliances of conveniences until things change, and my enemy becomes my ally and my ally my enemy. And it may all change again tomorrow.

Bingo ! And it's been going on for a very long time !

US energy never reached this level of production under the last admin. Not that presidents make a difference in the price of fuel. The pandemic upended the global market for oil and everything else, a historic mess. The infusion of federal money that kept our economy from nearly tanking like many others also triggered inflation to go with record job growth and productivity. At some point we will pay the piper, I think. But for now we have inflation, full employment, and economic growth.

I have to disagree with "war on fossil fuels". Record profits, expanded production, oil companies are not suffering, they have left this to us. They wanted their profits back after the pandemic. They are a nation unto themselves. I think we need oil in our energy future, but these guys will always be rich at our expense.

I see the reports … I have to disagree with your take. However, we all can have an opinion of course. But, once the prices of fuel and everything else we buy drops considerably … I am suspect of them. As many times many other economists, etc., say the economy may not be what the US leadership is saying. I don't think those in charge know what it is like to live in middle America today, if ever.

The majority of the nation live between NYC and CA … The Heartland, with Blue collar and low wage White collar that keeps America running. Regardless, what our elected & appointed leaders say … They lie you know … 'nuff said …

But back OT … Again, as long as many places in Africa, the Mid-East, A'stan and Pakistan where they are very strongly wedded to their religion, tribes, Warlords/Mullahs, etc., leadership affiliations, etc. Those regions will remain in an almost state of some sort of conflict. They have to want to move into the 20th then 21st Century. Mean time people there will keep dying one way or another.

We are good here Legion, agree to disagree. BTY I grew up in Pittsburgh, everybody worked in the mills, the sky was orange, and the air smelled bad. I get blue collar and there are plenty of regular working stiffs here in MA, and probably most places. And low level white collar. The forgotten masses….

I love the movie Lawrence of Arabia. But it reminds me of how hard it is to make sense of the Middle East. It feels like a trap…

BTY I grew up in Pittsburgh, everybody worked in the mills, the sky was orange, and the air smelled bad.

Yep … same here in Youngstown, OH right across the border from PA. I too know the deal.

The forgotten masses….

Yes … we the people … those in power forget who they are supposed to be working for. But instead, they fill their pockets with $ from many sources. Beyond their Gov't paycheck … It is almost criminal and in some case it is. And they get away with it.

I love the movie Lawrence of Arabia.

Yes, that made it clear what a mess that region was and is. The last scene with all the different tribe arguing in a gov't building about who runs what etc. It is still like that in many cases there over 100 years later.

You can't free a fish from water …

US energy never reached this level of production under the last admin. Not that presidents make a difference in the price of fuel.

You can't say that with a straight face. The prior Admin removed regulatory barriers to production and opened up more areas for exploration and production. This led to the lowest energy prices in decades and US energy independence. The US was a net energy exporter.

Under the Orange-Man-Bad my local gas prices dipped below $2 USD/gallon. Under the current admin my gas prices topped over $6 USD/gallon and now are "lower" at about $4.50 USD/gallon, over $2 USD more per gallon than I paid previously.

Why? Because the current POTUS campaigned on ending fossil fuels.

Biden during the Trump debate promising to end oil:

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Biden more recently bragging that he's blocked all new drilling:
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Biden immediately overturned the pro-energy production policies under Trump causing production to go down, and costs to go up. This forced the US to beg OPEC and adversarial regimes like Maduro of Venezuela to pretty please produce more oil. During the 2022 election season the Biden Team tried to convince voters all was well and emptied out the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try and create a short-term reduction in gas prices. Didn't really work and we now have to refill the SPR at a much higher cost.

ALL energy is more expensive under the current Admin, not just oil -- but natural gas and electricity. This makes us more vulnerable economically and strategically, and empowers our adversaries.

What about the massive Alaskan territory Biden opened up to drilling? He got hammered for that. 600 million barrels eventually. As much as I disagree with him, the guy gets no credit for anything. He's like a punching bag.

The data shows that we are at record levels of production and will exceed even that next year. More than Trumps best year. Give him all the credit you want. The oil companies don't care about him or Biden, IMO. They find ways no matter who tries to help or hinder them. When do they not make money? Other than the pandemic. But they have gouged us big time since then to get their "lost" profits back.

Just to be clear my concern is that oil companies keep taking us to the cleaners. They sell our US produced oil over seas for big bucks, buy Saudi oil and charge us whatever they want for it. Gas costs even more overseas, from the UK to China, except in the oil producing states.

That gas you likely bought for under 2 bucks a gallon? When the bottom fell out of demand in 2020. The last time before that gas was under 2 bucks a gallon? Last year of Obama. Last year of Bush, 2008, I paid nearly 5 bucks a gallon. Just as the economy was collapsing. But not for big oil…

Our adversaries, mainly China, are far more energy vulnerable than we are. Russia has plenty of energy. Be glad you don't have to go to the supermarket there. Or wait to get a car or a washing machine.

This is all stuff I have read. But I am no expert. The oil market is complex.

SBmini +1

600 million barrels eventually.

So why are we paying more for everything ?

As much as I disagree with him, the guy gets no credit for anything. He's like a punching bag.

As long as the majority of Americans, the Heartland, etc., have to deal with high prices. The "good" economy that is reported by some means 0. Give credit where credit is due.

Our adversaries, mainly China, are far more energy vulnerable than we are.

But they are 20% of the planet, they don't have a war on fossil fuels. And are zealots who want to turn their nation "Green". E.g. They continue to build coal powered steel mills. To build up their military. Especially their Navy. But a lot of aircraft and armor too …

Blame the pandemic, the sharpest sudden economic contraction in history. Everything came to a halt in 2020. Companies reduced their production to cut losses as consumers hunkered down. Lots of small business disappeared. No toilet paper.

The central bank cut interest rates to nothing and began buying up corporate debt, putting billions into the market to prevent a collapse. Unemployment was at 15 %, I think. The supply chain for all kinds of goods rapidly began to dry up.

Then Biden and Congress began the stimulus program, handing out cash, pumped up unemployment benefits. Others bills and benefits. People had money again, consumer confidence returned. But when they went to buy stuff, there was no supply. Classic inflation formula…high demand, low supply drives up prices. Add in delays in production and shipping and prices go up even more. Corporations also increased prices to hang on to their profit margins. Oil companies began to do this, and this caused prices to go up for everything that gets shipped, along with gas and heating oil.

This has been taking a long time to sort out. I think Biden gets the blame for prices, but he may have kept us out of even bigger trouble and set the table for recovery. Maybe. That's how I understand the whole mess. We are better off than most everyone else, but still hurting, as we know whenever we buy basics like food. We have had too much poverty in this country for years and this era has been a cruel time for many.

China has ramped up their coal production, yes. Very polluted air in cities especially. Ironically, they have also pumped massive amounts of money into producing green energy tech and supplies, which they sell to US companies China is the worlds major supplier!

What about the massive Alaskan territory Biden opened up to drilling? He got hammered for that. 600 million barrels eventually. As much as I disagree with him, the guy gets no credit for anything. He's like a punching bag.

He's removed far more productive lands from energy exploration and production than he's approved, and even the Willow project has been carved down in scope and who knows when it will ever come on line.

Yes, credit where credit is due -- record high energy costs, devastating losses in foreign policy and more mores, an economy in deep pain, millions struggling, more racially divided than ever, open borders, rising crime, higher taxes, more regulation, government collusion with BigTech to censor dissent and infringe on our freedoms, and the persecution of political opponents. So tell me where I should credit POTUS' handlers with successes?

SBmini +1

Well, there would be no point would there? This leads nowhere because we have already decided. We could argue all day.

Making one guy the punching bag gets old for me because it's not very logical. Our issues have been building up to this for years, blaming one side over the other is BS, IMO. The truth is never so simple, there are always qualifiers, and these shades of meaning become the history of the times.

SB, I won't change your mind and you won't change mine. But we do find common ground sometimes. Nothing about the Afghanistan debacle is positive. Xi is a major problem for us. Inflation is destroying what little is left of the middle class.

When Reagan screwed up in Lebanon, lost hundreds of Marines, jump started Hamas and the modern terror wars, he looked us in the eye and took the blame. History shows that leaders do show up sometimes. They all make mistakes. But some have the right stuff and carry on. For now we hang on.

<qBut some have the right stuff and carry on. For now we hang on. We await the "Great Western Hope" … Cause what we got ani't it.

And that means both sides to me. All this fighting is a waste. A divided force can be readily defeated in a battle or a war. The negative things many of our pols say about their fellow countrymen give our enemies more hope every day and depress the daylights out of most of us. Any competent commander would unite such divided forces.

The Heartland is more a state of mind than a geography lesson. It exists in every state, it is just as much a part of my little town as anyone's. There is no doubt that most Americans are looking for fresh leadership.

And our opponents want us divided. They love seeing the same show over and over again. Hoping that the negative energy will break the last threads that hold us together. Their cyber attacks and social media disinformation have become an integral part of modern warfare. They have been lucky with us. We are primed by selfish pols and media to take sides against each other. All our enemies really have to do now is watch.

Here is what Lincoln actually said about this:

" All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.

At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide."

And I thought the main cause of the current high price of petrol and gas (English meaning) was the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions against the Russians ?

Er…Dagwood, I think these things are said by some to be the fault, indirectly, of the very same guy!

No Dagwood, the invasion of the Ukraine has little to do with the US high fuel costs.

Once upon a time not so long ago the USA was not only Energy Independent but Energy Dominate.

Then the war on fossil fuel started. In an attempt to make the USA Green before the tech was there.

Pipelines were shut down, too many rules to block frakking and drilling, etc.

The less supply of fossil fuel … the higher the price …

In turn costs go up on everything because that 95% of everything runs on fossil fuels. Fuels to produce the goods. Fuel to drive products from Point A to Point B costs more. So, food, fuel etc. will be more expensive.

It is reported that the USA is producing more oil than ever before. Where is all that oil going ? If we were to become energy dominate or independent again … Prices on everything will go down. Except for our elected & appointed officials, of course …

Last year the big five oil companies scored 200 billion dollars in profits. That's 200 billion….

US oil is sold overseas, not just to us. It's a global market. All connected. Private business. Not the government's. Production is determined to reach the highest profit margin. They will cut production again to keep the price up.

Like the Saudis do unless you play ball with them. That is another story…

Why do you insist that government actions don't influence the market? When the Trump admin relaxed restrictions on energy production coupled with policies that increased economic growth both oil supply and domestic demand rose, driving down prices and leading to "over supply" over and above US normal exports that signaled US energy independence.

The current Admin reversed course on all of that, restricting production, and combined with policies that slowed the economy it drove up prices and reduced capacity and demand for domestic production. So we went from $1.85 USD to $6 USD a gallon under Biden.

And continued measures from this puXXet president drive up costs more and make the US more dependent on foreign despots for energy -- like this gem:

Biden admin quietly reverses Trump-era rule, bans transporting fossil fuels by train

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The control of oil prices and production is a private enterprise. I'm with this guy below. This from AP:

Joshua Busby, an associate professor of public affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, wrote in an email to the AP that beyond releasing oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, U.S. presidents have "limited leverage over gas prices."

"Prices are set by the market," Busby wrote. "If there is a major increase in demand (demand resurgence as worst of pandemic ends) or supply disruption (Ukraine conflict fallout), it's not clear any US President would have many levers to alter that situation in the short run"

In the last ten year price cycle gas reached its lowest price under Obama in 2016, Trump was second lowest in 2018 as the market stayed roughly the same. But neither guy ran a gas station.

The train issues evolved from a controversial relaxation of safety standards for trains transporting hazards by the previous administration, which was supposed to write new safety regs but never did. The safety standards were then reimposed, but clearly there is more work to be down in making sure these standards are enforced.

Well, there goes the Alaska oil…. go figure. Drilling cancelled. I stand utterly corrected on this matter and do not agree with this move. Yikes. We need a diverse energy supply.

The only way to "fix" this is to vote …

And yes we should use all forms of energy … including some wind & solar.

And yes we should use all forms of energy … including some wind & solar.

Yes -- and we should encourage a more distributed and localized energy network as opposed to the old, more fragile model of central power plants feeding a wide area.

Yes, and nuclear. The third gen reactors are much safer and there is even new tech coming along to convert waste to reusable fuel. Far less harmful than oil and coal for the environment.

All forms of power generation should be used … at this time.

However …

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Yes, that's what I was referring to when I said there goes Alaska. Even though much of that oil could end up overseas to the highest bidder. The more oil on the global market the better for prices, I believe.

The Saudis are cutting production again….

Yes supply & demand … the more of a commodity the cheaper the price. Or that is the way it used to be …

Yes supply & demand … the more of a commodity the cheaper the price. Or that is the way it used to be …

Nope that's how it works. For example, Iran kidnapped five American citizens. In response, the Biden Admin has priced the ransom of US citizens at $1.2 USD Billion a person. I would expect more detentions and kidnappings of Americans by Iran and others, but at least the price per ransom will drop as we move towards demand-supply price equilibrium.

Again, the current US top leadership does Not have the right stuff. In a recent interview with Iran's leadership, they clearly said they will use the $, their $, as they see fit.

So, IMO … No matter what the USA says. They will spend their $ on things that only makes them more dangerous. E.g. nukes & terrorists …

Okay, so you become President, SB. What do you do to get back the current captives from these countries? Iran and Russia keep doing this. What steps?
I honestly want to know what practical thoughts people have.

From Military.com …

FWIW –

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Thanks, Legion. No way to be sure if this is a fair exchange. We say our people did nothing wrong. Theirs sound like proven bad guys, although not outright attackers. In theory, the disbursement of the money to vetted contractors would work. But who trusts these guys on anything?

"US Republicans have criticized the possibility of an exchange" How would they get these people home? If they have a plan, let somebody know.

Okay, so you become President, SB. What do you do to get back the current captives from these countries? Iran and Russia keep doing this. What steps?

Nothing super creative, more like the kind of boring tit-for-tat carrot and stick that still works. And keep in mind we're in an undeclared state of War with Iran, a regime that is responsible for the death and injury of thousands of Americans, has conducted terror attacks worldwide, foments war and violence in Yemen, Syria, Israel, Iraq and the Palestinian territories, has publicly said once it gets nukes it will use them on Israel and the US, and calls the US the Great Devil. So no love lost there.

1. Don't pay the Danegeld
2. Apply pressure where possible.
*Tie up even more of their assets where you can.
* Arrest Iranian and Russian spies for an exchange (that works better than ransom).
*Use soft diplomacy in various venues to make it more painful for them, the type of sanctions that were working until the current Admin dropped them
*If they blow something up, respond in kind and be prepared for a general smacking if needed – the US crushed the Iranian Navy in 24 hours back in 1988. If we need to do that, do it again.
*If they start exhibiting good behavior, then you respond in kind.

Boring, but it works.

But who trusts these guys on anything?

Bottom line you can't trust these types … They are a threat … period.

SMmini +1

Agree with you both…