"Wagner Group armed rebellion against Putin" Topic

If it is true that the Wagner shot down three of the MI8 EW variant, that will be an extremely positive result for the Ukrainians in the electronic war. They are very rare birds indeed (?less than ten left) and are among the few genuinely effective pieces of high end tech the Russians have been able to create (looking at you Kinzhal for one…..). The Ukrainians were jubilant to knock down two of these in the Patriot ambush over Bryansk last month (much more than the SU 34 and SU 35 they also bagged), so they will be even more delighted that the Russians took out three for them.

Putin appears to have taken up the offer of Merrick Garland to provide DOJ and FBI assets to spearhead investigation and prosecution of the insurrectionists. In addition, they hope to charge all civilians who turned out to watch or "otherwise encourage" Wagner assets as they drive through their town.

Hyperbole of course … but those mentioned have some experience in those types of investigations, etc.

Wagner shot down

They prove again they are better at soldiering than the Russians.

Irony and sarcasm Legion.

YouTube link

hmmm, I have suspicions this was all just a scripted ploy to move Wagner Group to Belarus so they can be in position for a drive on Kiev for a Russian offensive later this year… (ymmv)

Whatever, this needs a Great Purge, especially of the upper echelons.
The people of Russia demand an 'Open Window' policy for the corrupt.

That has to be thrown out the window, literally!

You could clearly see that from the cheering crowds in Rostov as the hero Prigozhin left.

SB I saw that theory yesterday on the web, that Wagner was paid over 6 by the CIA as well. That Wagner and Putin laughed as they worked together to take the money. Obviously like everything else being reported and all speculation in TMP, it is all speculation by the news services and we on TMP.

Also Zephyr1, I thought of the Belarus angle as well. 🙂

I saw on the Sunday shows that our "agencies" said they knew this was going to happen. I take that too with a grain of salt. "Oh yeah. We were on top of this." 😉

Who knows if any of us will really ever know what really happened, or is happening.

Gives you endless scenarios and die possibilities for a game though. 🙂

Obviously like everything else being reported and all speculation in TMP, it is all speculation by the news services and we on TMP.

Yep, perhaps this was the hoped for coup to topple Putin (though again, replacing Putin who is authoritarian but not a Nazi with someone who actually is a Nazi)…but from what I can read it was a surprise to many, and then even more of a surprise after it stopped so abruptly after the talking heads on TV breathlessly reported on the "Advance on Moscow! Moscow is defenseless" stuff.

I saw on the Sunday shows that our "agencies" said they knew this was going to happen. I take that too with a grain of salt. "Oh yeah. We were on top of this."

They didn't, and they don't. Remember -- the war from the US side is being run by the same team that brought us all those glorious successes in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. Oh, and Iran and Yemen.

My oft-wrong gut feel is that Putin felt Wagner was becoming too powerful as an independent faction and he tried to reign them in. Behind the scenes whatever went down resulted in first a skirmish, and then Prigozhin reacted by escalating and declaring his intent on regime change. Maybe he saw that would never realistically succeed and he took the Golden Parachute option. In any event, looks like Wagner Group is no more, it's being folded into he Russian military and that authority once again being centralized under Putin.

On his twitter Denis Zelenko have a list of units who joined the uprising.

Here is parts of it.

Military unit 11659: Command of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (RosGvardia),
411th Detachment of the 22nd Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade
108th Bataysk GRU Spetsnaz Detachment
387th Object "C" of the 12th Main Defence Ministry Directorate (nuclear), Voronezh-45.
FSB Border guards at Bugaevka
FSB Federal Border Service of the regional command center for Voronezh region
FSB Border Service at Chertkovo
Unit 7437: RosGvardia Spetsnaz motorized regiment.
Unit 3677: RosGvardia Separate Battalion
Unit 63453: Separate Tank Brigade in Boguchar,
HQ from the 22nd SPF (SF) brigade

It is all OSINT.

Good text about the march on Moscow

link

If that list is remotely accurate its rather interesting just from the point of view it contains a lot of internal security units….

Listening to someone from the Belarusian opposition on the news. They were saying that Prig' hasn't arrived yet but that facilities are being prepared for Wagner PMC. Apparently part of his deal is that Lukashenko has given him a license to operate a PMC from Belarus. The Belarussian military are reported to be unhappy about this development. The guy did pour water on the idea that their might be an attempt by Wagner to invade Ukraine from Belarus.

Irony and sarcasm Legion.

Yeah I know … But as we know I'm sure both the Russians and Americans know how to do detailed investigations.

Biden's Blinken is day late and a dollar short -- the man who basically kissed Xi's popo in public and got *nothing* in return now thinks he knows what's going on in Russia.

The Wagner Group's uprising revealed weakness in the Russian regime led by President Vladimir Putin, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Across multiple talk show appearances on Sunday morning, Blinken repeated a similar message about how the brief rebellion is evidence of Putin losing his grip on power.

link

If I say what I thought … I'd be DH'd !

It seems the rumor is that the Wagner Group Mercs many probably won't join the Russian Army. They will get out there, etc. So, Putin lost his best force. They were clearly superior to the Russian Army. This is in the Ukraine's favor. But the Russians are dug in in the Donbas and Crimea like a Georgia tick. The Ukraine continues to look for weak points in the line. Too bad the US didn't send more MBTs, etc. sooner.

"Wagner Group Mercs many probably won't join the Russian Army"

I Would not if I was a mercenary for a number of reasons…

1. It would probably be a pay cut.

2. Vindictive Army officers taking out their frustrations on rank-and-file Wagner members.

3. Used like cannon fodder until dead to remove a future problem and any potential future rebellions.

I had thought the same … I'll be interested to see how this plays out. And where some of the Mercs may end up.