"Wagner Attacked by Russian Army" Topic

I'd just note that Prig's coup as far as the narrative goes has nothing to do with Putin, per say, and everything to do with his power struggle with the Russian MOD.

link

He might not have been acting alone, this article implies a deeper plot.

@Dragon Gunner,

Perhaps – one theory I've heard suggests that Dyumin, Govenor of Tula Oblast had something to do with it. Certainly people have been speculating that Dyumin might replace Shoigu. Dyumin certainly has an interesting resume; and, coincidentally, Tula province is supposedly where the Wagner forces turned around. But, it's all speculation.

One other possibility is that Prigozhin never expected it to be so easy to drive into Moscow. Perhaps he expected that his troops would be blocked at some point and that there'd be negotiations about Shoigu/Gerasimov, but when the Kremlin froze and it looked like the Wagner troops would meet little resistance, Prigozhin got sacred of – not being "obliterated" but of toppling the entire government – something for which he wasn't prepared. Certainly if one is going to topple the government you have to have a plan for who will take over various agencies.

I suppose the truth will eventually come out but it's all guess work at the moment.

ETA: Sort of a follow on to the 2nd possibility above. Rapid expansion is one of the top reasons new companies fail.

Investopedia

@Prince Alberts Revenge – yes, I said nobody saw this coming because that's how it looked initially based on media reports. Then as it developed, I changed my mind as more information became available and as the whole thing started to be really puffed up and over inflated in the media my Spidey Sense started to tingle.

And then as the coup collapsed so quickly the media largely now just want to pretend it never happened, yes? Why would that be? And in the aftermath, that senior Wagner people seem to be fleeing to places Westward doesn't suggest a fully local, native movement, does it?

So who has a track record of half-a$$ed coup attempts that leave things worse off than they were before? The CIA and the people in the Biden Admin in charge of the US' actions in this war who have already demonstrated their competency in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, etc.

Interesting substack article on possible CIA involvement, source in the article is Steve Bryan at the Center for Security Studies:

The Big Question Surfaces: Was The Prigozhin Farce A Western Intel Op?

Steve is still well-plugged into the U.S. intelligence and defense community and he drops a bit of a metaphorical bombshell by revealing Prigozhin was in contact with Ukrainian military intelligence:

To launch his operation, Prigozhin took a number of steps over a period of the past six or more months. Among these were constant, and provably false, accusations that he was not getting enough ammunition to fight in Bakhmut. Along with that, Prigozhin charged that the army leadership was corrupt, that they refused to defend his flanks during the Bakhmut operation, and that they were losing massively in the Ukraine war. None of these accusations were true. . . .

It turns out, however, there was more to it than that. Sources report that Prigozhin had been in touch with Ukrainian military intelligence (known as the HUR MO), at least since last January. Some sources say that he also flew to Africa, where Wagner forces are operational, to hold a meeting with Ukrainian intelligence officials.

Similarly there are reports that he also was talking to a number of special force units inside Russia, asking them to join him.

I believe that Steve's sources on this are solid. Pay particular attention to the timing — i.e., a meeting in January. It was a month or so later that Prigozhin launches scathing verbal attacks on Russian Defense Minster Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. Also, according to documents allegedly posted to Discord by Airman Jack Teixeira, Prigozhin provided Ukraine/NATO with locations of Russian units in the Donbass.

This is strong circumstantial evidence that Prigozhin not only went rogue, he became a traitor….

But the real problem are the contacts Prigozhin had with Ukraine's secret intelligence services, his alleged offers to sell out Russian command centers, and his bargaining for support, not so much from Ukraine, but from the United States. It should surprise no one that the CIA was fully informed by their Ukrainian counterparts, who are desperate to see Russia's leaders overturned and NATO to come to their rescue.

Prigozhin offered a very good deal. In exchange for outside support he would take over Russia, reorient to the West, and leave Ukraine. The offer, at a critical moment when the Ukrainian offensive is faltering, was an offer hard to refuse.

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Have to just keep following this as more information comes out, both official and unofficial, like articles claiming that Prigozhin was promised a Ukrainian break-out by a certain date range that would consume all Russian military resources and attention for his coup date -- so he prepped for that date range, and when the Ukrainian success didn't materialize he was in a "use it or lose" situation where he'd be discovered and outed, so he acted and had to "hope" that units and people he had counted on for support or inaction would go along with his hopes.

The New York Times says the US knew.

U.S. Suspected Prigozhin Was Preparing to Take Military Action Against Russia The information was considered both solid and alarming because of the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States
David Sanger & Julian Barnes NY Times June 26, 2023

American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.

U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.

The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine.

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Got that? The U.S. knew in advance. Any chance the Russians had an inkling of what was afoot? Is this what really happened? I dunno, interesting premise that could explain why he pulled the plug so quickly.

Other allegations are that Prigozhin was a double agent and staged a fake coup with the help of his deep GRU contacts to "out" anti-Putin people and interests, take the Western cash and retire.

Guess we'll have to see.

?Dyumin, Govenor of Tula Oblast

I've heard that name though in the context of being the the true hand behind the negotiations and deal that Lukashenko is supposed to have facilitated.

Along with that, Prigozhin charged that the army leadership was corrupt, that they refused to defend his flanks during the Bakhmut operation, and that they were losing massively in the Ukraine war. None of these accusations were true. . . .

Well at least two of those accusations are demonstrably true…

@SBminisguy I'm just impressed at your ability to consistently blame the US government no matter how the story unfolds. At first it was for failing to know that the coup was occurring and then when it appears they knew weeks in advance to then blame the US government for instigating it.

On a separate note, I found it humorous Russian state-run television personality Olga Skabeyeva was very angry at the US for not warning them of the potential coup when our intel community learned of it.

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So, they are turning on each other and the purge begins.

@SBminisguy I'm just impressed at your ability to consistently blame the US government no matter how the story unfolds. At first it was for failing to know that the coup was occurring and then when it appears they knew weeks in advance to then blame the US government for instigating it.

I'm impressed only by the continued incompetency of the current managers of the US Government, and their legacy of bloody stupidity in Libya (started a Civil War), Syria (inflamed a Civil War), Iraq (retreated prematurely and precipitated the rise of ISIS) and Afghanistan (a self-inflicted major disaster that collapsed the US-backed regime and left a sworn enemy in charge after 20 years, gifting them tens of billions worth of military gear and infrastructure).

I have faith in the ability of the current folks to screw up everything they touch -- they've proved it time and again.

In this case the US Government as reported through the media pretended to be surprised and that this was all organic, and they had nothing to do with it. If that was the case, that's a major intel blunder during a war we're actively supporting. So they should be criticized.

Then as the amazing coup and Putin-on-the-run media puffery puffed to max volume and popped, they changed their tune in order to look they knew that it was going to happen that way -- and the story to the media changed to say they knew in advance this was going down and that it would fail. How could they know in advance -- and that it would probably fail? And if they knew it was happening in advance why not coordinate actions with Ukraine during the period of maximum confusion they said they knew was coming? That doesn't make any sense.

But what makes more sense is that these geniuses cobbled together a weak coup attempt that would look organic and local, but which that fell apart almost immediately because they chose the wrong actor and made poor assumptions, leaving Putin stronger than ever.

If some of the reports hold water, evidently Prigozhin hoped that others would rise up and join him on his March to Moscow. Kinda like the CIA's Bay of Pigs plan also hinged on the hope of others rallying to the anti-regime cause. And when that support failed to happen, Prigozhin pulled the plug and cut an escape deal.

Apparently Prigozhin's jet flew from Belarus to Moscow and then to St. Petersburg. Unknown if Prigozhin was on the jet.

SB Minis…you're getting just as bad as Cuprum2. All conjecture with no sources. I'd love to see your sources.

And just because we "knew" about it doesn't mean we knew about it. If you know anything about the intelligence field, you realize you don't know anything for sure. It's all a matter of degree.

The Wagner Group Rebellion: What Happens Now?

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Armand

SB Minis…you're getting just as bad as Cuprum2. All conjecture with no sources. I'd love to see your sources.

I listed an NYT article as the new spin source -- and you're a big boy, I bet you can use this thingie called the "internet" to do your own searches. Anyways all of this is conjecture, and the whole thing stinks.

Those who really know are putting in layers of deniability and trying to bury the whole thing. This incredible story is now already "Below the Fold" in the US media -- kinda like they are trying to pretend it never happened…sort of like that Benghazi thing, yes?

So all we can do is guess, or "conjecture" if you will. And my guess on what happened is based on the performance record of the team running the show.

I mean, seriously -- do you think Victoria Nuland did a good job with Libya?? How about Syria? Or Iraq? Or Afghanistan? That's her track record -- it's the track record of the Biden team running things, so get back to me on that and lose the tired strawman attacks, eh?

Apparently somebody in Kremlin is concerned about the prospect of another military mutiny in future, since the leader of Rosgvardija, a paramilitary force responsible for internal security (which has so far mainly had to deal with unarmed civilian demonstrations), has announced that the organisation will now be provided with heavier armaments such as tanks.

Naturally assigning tanks, weapons and ammunition to Rosgvardija units around Moscow means that less will be available to Russian military units fighting in Ukraine. And if the leadership really wants the Rosgvardija to stand up against military mutiny in a tight spot, then they need to be armed to at least the same quality as the active military – issuing them instead with some old second-line equipment (though maybe good for scaring civilians) would be disastrous for morale in a tight spot.

@raylev3 – here's CV of the source I cited from the Center for Security Policy, looks like he contributes to multiple organizations.

Short CV: Stephen Bryen served as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense and as the director of the Defense Technology Security Administration. He was President of Finmeccanica North America, a major high technology, aerospace and defense company and now is CEO of SDB Partners LLC and Ziklag Systems,LLC, a mobile platform security company. He was twice awarded the Defense Department's highest civilian award, the Distinguished Public Service medal.

Long CV: link

Stephen Bryen's CV is very typical. Obviously if someone contributes to multiple organizations they are probably not contributing significantly to any one organization. One also has to check as to what's needed to be associated with any of these organizations. I see a lot of this from retired field to flag officer staff. It's designed to impress potential sources of contracts.

I don't doubt that Bryen has had a distinguised career but I did note that he was:

"Deputy under Secretary of Defense and Director of DTSA during both Reagan administrations". No mention of any follow on administration including Bush senior's. That's 34 years ago. One thing I do note is that the defence industry changes enough so that people who are out of it for 5-10 years aren't up to speed on current concepts, etc. Of course, a "Deputy Under Secretary" is a political appointment.

So…generally one should take such articles with a grain of salt. Personally I'm also dubious when some author says their source is so-and-so, who is ever-so-well-connect as to know everything that is happening in the defence and intel communities. Really? Highly doubtful anyone would have such knownledge unless they have very senior executive positions – and sometimes not even then.

The article also clearly states Bryen has a track record of opposing intervention in Ukraine. So objectivity is suspect. And yeah, also quoted third hand.

And the Russian army leadership isn't corrupt? That statement alone makes me very sceptical.

Opinion isn't evidential.

I think Prigozhin will have an "accident".

Most if not all of his troops won't join the Russian Army.

Putin will continue to try to wage war on the Ukraine. He has no other choice; he has painted himself and his soldiers into a very tight corner. He may have an accident too … If anyone in the Russian Gov't/Military has any "huevos" … 🥚🍳

The Ukraine will continue their offensive until all of the Russian military is off their terrain.

So…generally one should take such articles with a grain of salt.

Yep. And my experience with Establishment Media is that they will literally lie to your face and take your words out of context to meet a political goal. So read broadly from many sources and make up your own mind. As a smarter man than I once said…

I think Prigozhin will have an "accident".

If it wasn't in such bad taste I might suggest a sweepstake…..

I love that Twain quote and it still holds true today !

If it wasn't in such bad taste I might suggest a sweepstake….

A Deadpool … ☠

Be carefull with the near windows also…

Armand

Latest from the media AFAIK – Failed assassination attempt on Putin … Putin puts a hit out on Prigozhin.

What a hoot these Russkies are !!!! 😆

LOL…SB Minis using the Mark Twain quote is hilarious. In reality, there is no evidence he ever said it.