"Wagner Attacked by Russian Army" Topic

So we've succeeded in destabilizing a country armed with strategic nuclear weapons that may result in the ouster of a relatively rational bad guy who people have angrily called a Nazi, with an even worse bad guy who actually is a Nazi, Russian crime boss and Merc Leader who runs his private military like the SS and is responsible for most of the atrocities in Ukraine. Huzzah!!

Just saw this

#BREAKING: Belarusian president held talks with Prigozhin today. Lukashenko says that Prigozhin has agreed to "stop the movement of armed persons on the territory of Russia and to take further steps to deescalate"

So bizarre if true.

Sounds like it is. Reporting on news now.

Looks like it's all over.
Now Wagner is leaving Rostov.
Next thing is to make sense of what happened.

3 act play

So we've succeeded in destabilizing a country

No we have succeeded in preventing your fascist hero from invading and conquering a sovereign state,

Tally Ho!

What's the bet that sacrificing Shoigu was part of the deal?

There's always that guy where it's always the fault of the US….

Prince, maybe he's just a bot.

Then again, could be worse – having an ability for independent thought, and he ends up thinking like a bot. :)))

Prigozhin, the ultimate YouTube influencer.

Hey, beats my wife's gardening videos, but just barely. :)))

My (next) prediction is that most of the Wagner Group is going to sneak away to their bases in Africa (rather than sticking around to get killed…)

It's 50k Russians off the front line.
Who knows how many diverted to block whatever they might intend.
However many points of morale dropped for the fools still out there.
All sorts of complication and distraction to any plans.

All good.

@SBminisguy…
"We've succeeded…"
What are you talking about?

For the better part of a year the Biden Admin has been vocally talking about Regime Change in Russia, the fall of Putin and perhaps even having him tried for war crimes. Did you miss that??

So we've succeeded in destabilizing a country

No we have succeeded in preventing your fascist hero from invading and conquering a sovereign state,

Tally Ho!

Ahhh…to be concerned about possible civil war in a country with thousands of nukes is to support a "facist hero." Like you even know what facism is, eh, except the most recent iteration of "Everyone I don't like is Hitler."

Say, here's an idea -- you can ask "What do you mean by that?"

1. The US and the West should help Ukraine defend itself -- we should not reward invasions with inaction. However, we shouldn't be writing a blank check as we have been, with no oversight of how money from the close to $200 USD Billion that's been spent to date. The longer this war goes on, the more we divert resources that *will* be needed to combat China when it makes its move on Taiwan.

2. The longer such a war that directly involves a nation with LOTS of nukes continues, the more probable it is that it will spiral out of control in ways we can't predict and won't like -- like this possible Civil War in Russia. This war is also causing famine in developing countries by cutting off a huge percent of the world's fertilizer supplies and direct wheat shipments. The longer the war goes on the more global hardship and instability causes.

3. The rational goal then is to make the war so painful that Russia would see peace as a better alternative. However, we shouldn't make *another* regime change our goal since that blocks the chance for peace talks and has worked out sooooo well in the past in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

4. Secure a settled peace and end the war.

I go to lunch and when I got back. The Mercs are being ordered to go back to their barracks. Their Cdr skips the country and Putin is still alive !!!! 😮 What kind of world has it become when you can't trust a former KGB now dictator war criminal and a ruthless bottom line Merc Cdr ? I mean what kind of world do we live in today ? Really !!

LOL! Nobody saw this coming, nor the apparent ceasefire, nor does anyone in our government have any idea what will happen next.

So the rebellion is over. The criminal case against Prigozhin is closed, he himself is leaving for Belarus and will not be subjected to persecution. PMC employees who did not participate in the rebellion or ceased to participate in the events before the official end will renew the contract with the Ministry of Defense and become part of the Russian army, the rest will be fired and, apparently, will also avoid persecution. As a result of armed clashes, 15 people from various law enforcement agencies were killed, three helicopters were shot down, and a MANPADS rocket that fell caused an explosion and fire at the fuel base. The damage, compared with the possible consequences, is minimal. The casualties were caused by the sluggish attempts of the Russian Aerospace Forces to attack the Wagner columns – PMC employees defended themselves.
There are many questions left…

I am back to my version. Events were inspired to change leadership and major changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense. Now there is a reason for the most fundamental changes in this structure. Officers from PMCs are part of the Ministry of Defense. Shoigu did not show himself during these events in any way – no statements, no public actions … An excellent reason to remove him from his post under universal approval for inaction.
My opinion is that it was a performance, but the truth is that not all of its participants knew that they were playing roles in it.

An interesting detail… Yesterday, all Russian marketplaces removed items with the symbols of PMC "Wagner" from sale. Today they are back on sale…

Oh yes … If someone was counting on a change of power in Russia through a coup – forget about it. There will be no better moment for a coup. In addition, it seems to me that measures will be taken to strengthen internal security. For example, it will be interesting to see if the martial law in the border regions with Ukraine, introduced as a result of the Prigozhin rebellion, will be canceled …

What a wild ride today…

1. Wagner has ceased to exist and been reabsorbed by the Army?

2. Prigozhin gets to live out his days in exile in Belarus? (I am predicting an accident or sudden heart attack in the near future…)

3. What happens to the Wagner forces with contracts in other countries?

4. Will Putin let his half naked hunting trips with that ape Shoigu get in the way of forcing him into retirement? ( I would call that retired Russian Colonel out of retirement, the guy that speaks so well on Russian TV and appears highly competent, appoint him as Defense Minister. I forgot his name?)

Shoigu was removed from his post. According to rumors, yesterday he and his family fled the country. This suggests that he organized the attack on the Wagner PMC and provoked the riots.

General Surovikin is supposed to be the new Minister of Defense.

According to rumors: Prigozhin will continue to lead the new PMC, but such a structure will work exclusively abroad. Its activities on the territory of Russia will be prohibited.

According to rumors, the current personnel of the Wagner PMC will be part of the newly formed combined arms army.

Now we are waiting for official announcements on this matter.

Thank you Cuprum for your insight.

The downing of an air command post based on the Il-18 aircraft has been confirmed. He coordinated attacks on Wagner PMCs. The plane was shot down (according to rumors) by a missile of the S-300 complex.
But Wagner does not have such missile systems …
This suggests that the leadership of the army was split, and the main rebel was … Shoigu!

And there are also reports that the helicopter pilots were tasked with attacking "Ukrainian columns that had broken through". They did not know that they were attacking the columns of Wagner PMCs… When they saw the markings, many refused to attack until the situation was clarified.
It becomes clear why two Mi-8 helicopters intended for electronic countermeasures were shot down. They prevented the Wagner group from contacting the pilots opposing them …

There are also rumors that Shoigu is seeking political asylum in Canada. If this is so, then here is the "NATO trace" in organizing the rebellion)))
However, it is unlikely … Then it would be more effective to open the front to the Ukrainians and coordinate actions with them.

The Ukrainians missed a great chance to take advantage of the situation. Yesterday, the leadership of the Russian army was clearly demoralized and preoccupied with completely different problems … Now, however, confusion will be replaced by inspiration.

The flight to Turkey out of Belarus I wonder if that was Shoigu? Where is Shoigu currently? If I was Canada I would grant him asylum in exchange for the huge intel he could provide. Russia should try to make sure Shoigu dies before he can run his mouth.

Wow this sounds like a teenager social media spat and Shoigu chose to escalate it with violence.

They fire Shoigu but do not arrest him for ordering the attack on Wagner? Shoigu sees the writing on the wall and immediately attempts to defect while he can? I think Putin allowed his old friend to leave the country and Belarus expedited his departure on Lukashenko's private plane. If he is in Turkey I wonder if Turkey will AHEM detain him as their guest.

It is not yet clear where Shoigu is. Rumors are conflicting. Someone claims that his daughter and son-in-law are now in Dubai. They also say that Shoigu did not have time to escape and was arrested … We must wait.

The public conflict between the Ministry of Defense and Prigogine has been going on for half a year – since the fall. It was strange that Prigozhin was not shy in his expressions and accused the entire top leadership of the army of corruption and incompetence (quite rightly) – and this despite the complete indifference of the country's leadership in this conflict. For this, it was necessary to have serious support. And Shoigu, apparently, was deprived of the support of the government, but still relied on some significant political forces.
I think we will soon find out a lot of interesting details.
Big changes are coming in the Russian political and military elite, as it seems to me. And I also believe that the time of the oligarchs in Russia is coming to an end … And, along with them, I hope, "the time of great corruption."

"Wow this sounds like a teenager social media spat and Shoigu chose to escalate it with violence".

I think the calculation was that immediately after the advancement of the Wagner columns, large-scale hostilities would begin, during which there would be no time for trials of who is to blame. If one of the columns had been defeated by aircraft, it would have been so. But everything turned out differently, all parties showed restraint and ability to negotiate.
It is also clear that someone in the top leadership of the Ministry of Defense had a connection with Prigozhin and provided him with all-round assistance. This is evidenced by the rapid destruction of the "flying headquarters" and helicopters to suppress communications … After that, Shoigu's people apparently lost control of the situation.

I thought the hostilities (violence) began with the rocket / artillery attack on Wagner forces ordered by Shoigu. Up until that moment there had been an ongoing spat in social media.

Those videos that were presented as the consequences of shelling (although it was still about an air raid in the video) looked extremely unconvincing. I continue to consider them staged.
Although, perhaps, there were other facts unknown to us so far.
But the death toll as a result of the incident was announced – 15 people. At least 12 of them died along with the "flying headquarters", two people died in a downed combat helicopter … This means that there were no victims during the shelling of the Wagner camps, well, or one person died (which I doubt – most likely the last victim was in a downed plane or helicopters).

Prigozhin, by the way, said that his company would pay compensation to the families of the victims in the amount set by the company upon the death of his employee.

So we've succeeded in destabilizing a country

The 'West' is responsible for many things but the existence of Wagner, and in essence creating a system that has an awful lot parallels with later Medieval states including 'overmighty subjects' and something that looks a heck of lot like 'livery and maintenance' is not one of them. The list of Russian organisations and wealthy individuals running PMC's, or sponsoring volunteer units, has ballooned during the invasion and PMCs are in theory illegal in Russia.

All this is on Putin and no one else.

As said on another post …So the "Russian Rebellion"/"March on Moscow" seems to have a been a failure. However, it does makes Putin look weak. As he has shown thru out this conflict. He is meeting with China, and Iran to let them know he is still in control(?).

The Russian people don't like Putin's war. However, he said he will continue with his war in Ukraine. But this all plays into Ukraine's favor as their measured determined offensive continues. No "Blitzkrieg" just yet.

AFAIK the Cdr of the Wagner Group is in "exile" in Belarus, a puppet of Putin. The Wagner Mercs are to be put in the Russian Army(?). The Russian military's moral seems to be low (?).

Still a lot of questions …

The 'West' is responsible for many things but the existence of Wagner, and in essence creating a system that has an awful lot parallels with later Medieval states

Yes, seems some in that region are living in the past. E.g. Putin trying to regain the former Imperial Russian Empire. Looks like that ani't going to happen.

And a large group of Mercs roaming the world doing Putin's bidding. Again, they are supposed to be part of the Russian Army now ? Interesting to see how that turns out. But as has happened before, Putin, etc. blames the US/West for his incompetence, failings, etc.

Wagner was all about plausible deniability via this weird blurry intersection, that we in the West don't really get anymore because we starting getting rid of it during the early modern period, of the State and private interests. It just happened to pop in places where Russia had interests. There is a reason why there are all the jokes about being able to buy tanks at an army surplus store… Not to mention the whole its illegal to run a PMC in Russia – Wagner is listed as management consultancy IIRC (que more jokes).

"they are supposed to be part of the Russian Army now "
given what they know about russian army are they actually going to stick around ?
i got this feeling that they will be used to launch a attack on kiev from belarus

Many have said it on this thread, but it bears repeating: the only people destabilising Russia are Russians. It's up to Russians whether they implode their state or rescue something while they still can. Quite how they rescue something, and what that something might be, is becoming quite a question.

what they know about russian army are they actually going to stick around ?

A question yet to be answered. Will they join the Russian Army without a problem ? I'm thinking there will be desertions, etc.

the only people destabilising Russia are Russians. It's up to Russians whether they implode their state or rescue something while they still can.

I don't have much faith of this be solved easily.

The points of recruitment of contract soldiers for PMC "Wagner" have resumed their work. As far as one can judge, Wagner PMC will continue to function, but already abroad. Separately, it is stipulated that people with knowledge of Arabic and African languages are actively recruited. It is also possible that a contingent of PMC "Wagner" will be formed in Belarus – this is foreign countries)))
The State Duma of Russia is going to urgently adopt a law on the status of PMCs in the near future.
Former units of PMC "Wagner" will be part of the newly formed combined arms army of 80 thousand people. The army is fully recruited from contract soldiers of the Ministry of Defense and is now completing its training. It is assumed that she will go on the offensive against Kharkov. Former employees of PMCs will train fighters in urban battles.
According to rumors, Shoigu was arrested and an investigation team was created to investigate systemic corruption in the army. Officially, for now, everyone is silent.
There is enthusiasm in Russia, everyone is waiting for quick successes at the front.

Rumours of Shoigu's demise are apparently greatly exaggerated – unfortunately for Russia. His political skills have been described as God tier. I don't buy the 'Wagner in Belarus' idea for several reasons. One it seems clear Prig' isn't going to get Wagner back and Wagner II made from Belarusians, I don't think so.

There is clearly a lot going on behind the veil. And it doesn't include the CIA. I'd hazard they knew it was on the cards from sigint.

My wild ass guess is that Putin think's Prig' is too popular and the situation too volatile for him to be purged immediately and he's going to serve revenge cold as usual.

Rumours of Shoigu's demise are apparently greatly exaggerated

Footage of Shoigu supposedly visiting troops has apparently been shown on Russian state TV, so he might end up remaining the defence minister for the time being.

One it seems clear Prig' isn't going to get Wagner back

He might lose control of the Wagner personnel that were in the Ukrainian front, but there are still supposed to be several thousand Wagner members deployed in operations around Africa. He might still be able to exert control over them – presuming that the local rulers still consider Wagner as reliable enough partner for their tastes.

Whether Minsk makes for a great location to run the Wagner locations is another issue, and locals might not be wildly enthusiastic about Wagner presence. In any case, it would probably be wise for the Wagner leadership to avoid renting any 6th floor apartments or offices.

Well I was wrong on that one it seems part of his deal is a PMC license in Belarus…. And the locals aren't happy.

I'm pretty sure some involved will have "accidents" …

Implications of rebellion:
link

I would also add that on Saturday Russia probably temporarily did not have control over the nuclear arsenal (to use the ABC you need the consent of the president, the chief of staff and the Ministry of National Defense, confirmed biometrically, and Shoigu could not be found, his family fled to Turkey (FlightRadar is not lying) and there was a rumor that Shoigu applied for asylum in Canada). Here and there there was panic about possible Chinese movements.

FlightRadar show that there was hell lot of panic in Moscow, everybody run. Including Putin.

There is enthusiasm in Russia

LOL. We have seen this enthusiasm in the eyes of crowds passively watching how bunch of criminal NeoNazi are travelling to overthrow constitutional president.

"Nuclear Superpower" which is digging highways to slowdown few thousands of mercenaries with dozen tanks. Rotten to the core.

Prigozin revealed truth to public opinion in Russia: there was no risk for Russia from Ukraine or NATO before the war.

According to social media, the Wagnerites are split over Prigozhin. Some are still loyal. Some think he sold them up the river.

And lets not forget about the fact that FSB/GRU had not know about the rebellion (while CIA knew). This show growing disability of Russian security system comparing to Soviet.

And lets not forget about the fact that FSB/GRU had not know about the rebellion (while CIA knew). This show growing disability of Russian security system comparing to Soviet.

That really just says -- the CIA did this. Why are we being led by such stupid people? If the CIA knew first, that means the CIA done it, and now the whole world knows the CIA engineered ANOTHER failed coup! I mean, the toppling of Mubarak of Egypt led to a short Egyptian Civil War, and the toppling of Qaddafi of Libya led to an ongoing Civil War and the continued destabilizing mass immigration outflow of millions to Europe. Their attempt to topple Assad led to the rise of the Isis Caliphate and mass death, and their attempt to control Afghanistan led to the worst US retreat since the Vietnam War. Can we please take their toys away before the blow up the place?

Oh, and if Putin didn't think he was in an existential threat war -- now he does, and knows he will literally die if he loses. And he just survived the most serious threat to his rule he's ever faced -- I doubt anything else, save a silent blade in the dark, will get as formidable as a guy with his own 25,000 man army. So the CIA has:

1. Helped Putin consolidate power by sparking a premature long-shot coup attempt that removed his most serious challenger.

2. Shown Putin viscerally that he's in a war of personal survival.

3. Removed barriers to action since if the US is going to fruck around inside Russia, why wouldn't he play that game as well.

4. In his post-coup address to the nation, Putin also blamed "Fifth Columnists" who tried to destroy Russia -- so if you were a pro-peace Russian citizen, better hunker down. There will be no peace movement that can gain traction now.

5. Putin blamed senior enemies as the culprits, while publicly saying many "patriotic" Wagner commanders were fooled and will be allowed to keep serving Russia, while others will be allowed to leave Russia – so that prevents a second rebellion by more junior officers and removes more threats to his rule.

6. Probably shores up the power of Lukashenko of Belarus, since now he too can blame internal turmoil on the CIA and others and can probably get more Russian aid to crack down and stay in power.

What a mess, the Doomsday Clock is just a few ticks to midnight…

Oh, good 'ol mouthshill John Kirby explains the current White House position regarding Russia/China relations.

The White House urged China on Monday to stop supporting Moscow's invasion of Ukraine after the brief Wagner mutiny threw Russia's domestic political balance into uncertainty.

According to White House national security spokesperson John Kirby, the Biden administration is actively monitoring the situation but has not yet determined how the recent revolt of Wagner Group, a prominent Russian private military company, will affect Russia, Ukraine, and other European nations.

The White House is also unsure whether this will make Beijing more hesitant to back the Kremlin.

link

Seriously? After the Wagner affair, Putin is more reliant than ever on Xi's China. He has no place else to go. The Biden regime keeps escalating things and disrupting potential peace talks, might possibly have been involved in the short-lived Wagner coup, and keep making it more and more difficult to re-integrate Russia into the West.

And if the US' best CIA efforts resulted in the Wagner affair, Xi has to be laughing his a$$ off and thinking the US is a paper tiger when it comes to defending Taiwan -- making WW3 all the more likely. Ironic isn't it, since the Biden folks claimed Trump would cause WW3 and he ended up negotiating historic peace deals, and the so-called peacemakers of the Biden camp have ended up escalating and inflaming multiple wars.

"keep making it more and more difficult to re-integrate Russia into the West."

The boogey man on the frontier has been very profitable for some and keeps Europe AHEM close to the USA?

Probably true, Dragon Gunner.

IMO the Fat Lady hasn't sung … yet …

LOL! Nobody saw this coming, nor the apparent ceasefire, nor does anyone in our government have any idea what will happen next.

That really just says -- the CIA did this. Why are we being led by such stupid people? If the CIA knew first, that means the CIA done it, and now the whole world knows the CIA engineered ANOTHER failed coup!