"Ukraine invasion: Recent photo analysis" Topic

Guys, I've been studying the recent photos that Bollix and Cuprum 2 have been trumpeting as evidence of a failure of western vehicles.

(And, yes, of course, only a fool would expect to win such a fight without losing some gear – look at Afghanistan, the Gulf Wars, Iraq, etc)

But here are some observations for discussion:

- firstly, the photos, as I analyze them appear to show mobility kills on Bradley M2's and late model Leopard 2
's.
- the vehicles appear to have blown tracks, but they are not burnt out and totally destroyed.
- Indeed all but one appear to be very recoverable.
- They appear to have been mobility killed and then quickly abandoned by their crews (you dont stick around in an immobilised vehicle, you bail out FAST)
- These look to be photos of vehicles disabled in a minefield, with mobility kills, not destroyed by Anti-Tank gunfire or ATGMs
- They look to be easily recoverable and repaired
- The photos also suggest that the Russian defensive minefields, that trapped and disabled the vehicles, were not covered by direct fire weapons or indeed under observation … or else maybe following Ukrainian vehicles were able to successfully destroy any Russian overwatch teams
- Thats pretty basic, 101 stuff, you dont lay a minefield and then not cover it with overwatch fire. The elementary tactic is to slow or halt the enemy in your minefield, then destroy them with direct fire weaponry. (obviously you dont use indirect fire, artillery or mortars, because you dont want to degrade the effectiveness of the minefield) This clearly hasn't happened in this instance.

I know Cuprum 2 and Bollix want us to believe these photos as proof the Ukrainian offensive will easily be stopped cold. And the western supplied equipment will fare no better than the Soviet stuff from the 1960's and 70's that the Russians are using, but actually these photos suggest otherwise. The vehicles are not actually destroyed and the Russian defensive tactics are faulty, yet again.

Thoughts? What am I missing?

Nick

The ambush occurred on the way to the front, so the minefields were Ukrainian, as I understand it.

One of the Leopards was on fire, so not a mobility kill.

That Leopard was hit with a kamikaze drone some time after it was abandoned.

Another defeated offensive group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

Firstly, entrepreneurs have assigned a large bonus to the Russian army for the first captured Leopard tank, so that Russian soldiers will strive to capture the tank in a usable condition, if possible, of course.
Secondly: this is not Hollywood, during the period of active fighting there is especially no time to specially shoot damaged equipment – there are more pressing tasks.
Thirdly: to evacuate damaged equipment, you need to be able to approach it. With such an opportunity, the Ukrainians are now difficult. If you try to steal the equipment, the Russians will destroy it. In the meantime, they hope to take the equipment for themselves. Russian repair battalions are doing their job perfectly, including replenishing Russian units with captured equipment, including Western ones. Someday later I will make a selection of such photos.

Do you really think that Western technology is significantly superior to modern Soviet and Russian technology? There are no special benefits. This was shown by the conflicts in the Middle East, this was also shown by the conflict in Ukraine.

You do not see the most important thing – now Ukraine will lose engineering equipment used for mine clearance, and its losses will increase significantly. Tanks are not the main thing now …

The first "Leopard" and "Bradley" captured by the Russians (Telegram). Video from Russian soldiers collecting trophies on the battlefield. Caution – in the video, disfigured corpses:

t.me/rusvarg/2893

Talking about pictures… is Cuprum there?…

Russian Ministry Of Defense Reveals Number Of Russians Volunteering For The Army

link

IMHO find this number to be very low for a country that is fighting (according to the Kremlin) a war for its existence….

Armand

In war you take losses. If western equipment is superior to Russian stuff? Resounding yes. All else being equal western equipment have beaten Sovjet/Russian equipment in every war. First Gulf war,Second gulf war. Western tanks have in general better night vision equipment. Better communication equipment better fire control. This is a fact. No one can deny it.

Also western tanks are ergonomically better. Ask people who have used "Both" tanks.

Western tanks are more easily maintained. Switching engine on a Leopard takes about an hour I believe. On a Russian tank? Quite longer.

And why more, if those that are available are quite coping? If necessary, the next mobilization will be carried out. So far, there is no such need.
Volunteers are still signed up not only for the army. A large number of volunteer units that were not part of the regular army were also formed (Cossack battalions, regional battalions, veteran battalions, army reserve battalions, etc.)
You will not see me there))) I am old enough to go to war when there is no great need for it))) Especially – voluntarily.
Russia is not particularly tense so far. Life in areas far from the front line has changed little since the start of the war. Well, except that defense industry plants have recruited more workers and work in three shifts, and Western brands in stores have been partially replaced by Turkish and Chinese ones. That's all the changes))) A war for existence does not mean a war of the last forces)))

Soledad – this whole experience is based on the war with crappy Arab armies. See how the Saudis fought on vaunted Western technology))) Fought against the shepherds in skirts – with sad results!))) See how various rebels burned "Abrams" and "Leopards" … Until recently, Ukraine sang songs to Turkish "Bayraktars" – and where are they now?

I wrote "all else being equal". That means if all else is equal ( tactics, crew training etc) western equipment is superior.

More important is quality of the troops using of course. Crew skill always beat equipment.

Look at the current war. Ukraine with older equipment is beating Russia with more modern equipment. Now with more western gear Russia is getting smacked around quite bad.

That saudis fail does not surprise me. They are are arabs.

Not quite as unsuccessful as the ruscums 3 day operation to rid the world of a non existent fascist regime, although they have managed to kill quite a few civilians.

In war we take casualties, fact of life,

Tally Ho!

Russia is losing the war?! What plans did the parties have at the beginning of the war? And who realized them to a greater extent? While Russia leads in the account in any case …
Ukraine had the main advantage – the work of the entire NATO intelligence infrastructure in its interests. Now, after the appearance of a Russian reconnaissance satellite over Ukraine, these capabilities have become equal))) Now we see Ukrainian planes and missiles taking off, we see their launch sites, we see the movement of vehicles, and much more. This will change the game.

And most importantly, Russia is fighting alone, with its own forces, and behind Ukraine is all NATO, including "volunteers" in the Ukrainian troops. Russia is cool in the fight!
Interestingly, does the West have a plan in case Russia wins?)))

Another defeated offensive group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

Actually, same one, just different angle.

Interestingly, does the West have a plan in case Russia wins?)))

Russia can't even control Belgorod any more.

If I had to be a tanker I'd much rather fight in a vehicle that had proper ammo stowage, proper fire suppression systems, a full crew not 3 and an autoloader, and proper hatches that it's actually possible to get out through in an emergency.

It's interesting that Cupola3 hasn't found any pics of Leos with their turret lying some yards from the rest of the tank…

Interestingly, does the West have a plan in case Russia wins?

Do we even need a plan? We're not planning to attack you, so you would have to attack NATO proper. How long took it for you to build up for the invasion of Ukraine? As if we wouldn't see that coming…
Then again, it won't take you guys that long next time to prepare, you'll only have the parade T34s and that two dozen Armata prototypes left by then :-)

Interestingly, does the West have a plan in case Russia wins?

Out of curiosity, what would be considered Russia winning?
Conquering the whole of Ukraine?
Gaining control of the "annexed" oblasts?
Holding on to the pre-invasion Donbass and Crimea?
Not losing Belgorod (and other neighbouring) oblasts to Ukraine?

The one thing that hardly ever gets mentioned in these back and forth threads is that developing an effective mechanized force takes years and years of training, not to mention huge expenses. An U.S. armored brigade, backed by CAS, would cut through the defenses here and be racing towards their objectives. Why? They practice these things all the time in massive exercises which most countries simply don't do for a lot of reasons. What you're left with is what we have here; two drunk opponents staggering around swinging at each other wildly. Just giving one side or the other fairly advanced weapons doesn't make up for the lack of operational doctrine.

Editor in Chief Bill, I didn't notice something in the previous photos of Leopards with mine sweeps and destroyed engineering vehicles)))

Something Wicked, the "Leopard" is so heavy that it is suitable for offensive only on hard ground. Western tanks are only suitable for war on asphalt))) They are useless in bad weather)))

witteridderludo, the Russian-speaking regions will become part of Russia (although this was not originally planned), the rest of Ukraine will have a non-bloc status and will be demilitarized. Or in general will enter into an alliance with Russia. Look at Chechnya – well, who could have imagined this ten years ago? The longer the war goes on, the more expensive the cost of defeat will be.

Russian channels claim that a Ukrainian platoon surrendered last night in the Avdiivka direction. According to reports, the commander of a platoon of the 110th separate mechanized brigade of Ukraine got in touch with one of the units of the Russian Armed Forces. "He wanted to save the personnel, since he has a lot of 300s, and his command refused to evacuate," explained the military correspondent who was present at the surrender of the Ukrainians.

After the talks, a unit of the Ukrainian military left in full strength in an armored vehicle towards the Russian forces. The necessary assistance was provided to the wounded.

Video: t.me/RtrDonetsk/18282

Or here: link

We are waiting for confirmation from the Ukrainian side.

aegiscg47, if my memory serves me, the Ukrainian army has been actively trained according to NATO standards since 2014. Ten years of training was not enough?))) What did your instructors get paid for?
When your troops fled from Afghanistan, the Afghans trained by you were immediately defeated. The Soviet-trained Afghans fought alone long enough…

Ten years of training was not enough? Yes they got destroyed in the ruscum 3 day special operation! Oh no they didn't and we continue to see an "army" where initiative is a dirty word. Mind looking at the captured trenches etc taken from the ruscum the places are a health hazard, does the word "hygiene" have no equivalent in the fascist Soviet union?

The Afghans trained by us were not defeated, they were sold out by their leadership.

And the soviets are not alone, looking at the support they receive, without Iranian aid there would be a few less dead civilians.

Tally Ho!

they were sold out by their leadership.

Arguable ours rather than their's directly though their's was showing definite signs of following the 'Russian model' of governance. No army will stand if the social fabric won't support it…. And Afghanistan's social fabric is complicated.

I'd say what we aren't seeing is probably way more interesting. But obviously would be utter speculation. In total the losses look like what the Russian's wish they'd suffered at Vuhledar! Oryx is documenting 16 Bradley and 4 Leopard. For some additional context Oryx document 814 lost Russian BMP-2 – a roughly analogous system to the Bradley. Basically at the moment Ukraine is still probing and shaping, removing at least one salient, with a force size commensurate with that. At some point the hammer is going fall and its not going to pretty for either side.

Back on the OP my wild ass guess is similar. Bogged down in a minefield belt and then attempted to extricate themselves. From what I can see relatively successfully all things considered. The footage from the Ukrainian side is interesting. Cleary some human factors in play but a distinct lack of panic apparent…

Something Wicked, the "Leopard" is so heavy that it is suitable for offensive only on hard ground. Western tanks are only suitable for war on asphalt))) They are useless in bad weather)))

T-72 and Leopard 2 ground pressures are pretty much the same…. And its not like during the initial invasion Russian armoured vehicles weren't sticking pretty exclusively to roads for fear of getting stuck and paying a heavy price for doing so.

What is sickening is the joy that Russia is getting out of this terrorist operation. Especially how excited Cuprum gets. How many more civilians us Russia going to murder and how many more children are they going to steal? There are no winners here.

soledad, aegiscg47 & Nick +1

From Military.com:

link

The ambush occurred on the way to the front, so the minefields were Ukrainian, as I understand it.

Doubt they hit their own mines. Don't think the Ukraine's troops are that poorly trained ? I await more intel …

The Leopard 2A6 exerts less ground pressure than a T90 (0.83 kg/cm^2 v 0.94 kg/cm^2). It has a better power/weight ratio too.

So…

Cuprum,

Can you help to explain the position of Progozhin in relation to your view of everything being according to plan?
He seems to have quite a different view of the state of the war than you are sharing with us.

latest: link

Same with the Igor Girkin and his Angry Patriots Club.

Both of these figures seem to have very different views of how well things are going.

Are they Ukrainian propaganda?
Are they to lure Ukraine into a false sense of security so they will fall into a cunning trap?
Are they just motivated by something else that causes them to make it sound more gloomy than it is?

Just curious for your view.

Something Wicked … I believe you are correct about the Leo vs T-90. The Leos especially the later versions are rated pretty highly. Plus it appears the Ukrainian crews are better overall vs the Russians.

"Leopard" is so heavy that it is suitable for offensive only on hard ground. Western tanks are only suitable for war on asphalt))) They are useless in bad weather)))

Not IMO, I've seen and operated with US MBTs in all types of terrain and weather conditions. They never had any problem. IIRC, I've never seen a one bogged down in mud, a rice paddy, etc. Of course, our crews were pretty well trained. Knew to avoid certain types of terrain. And could operate on roads of all types as well as cross-country.

link

One of the Leopards being recovered by Ukraine forces.

Recovery and repair are an important part of keeping the force combat ready. A force that can do that and keeping the force well supplied will make a difference in combat. The Russians seems not to be very good at logistics. The Ukraine has recovered and repaired many Russian AFVs to use against their former owners.

The ambush occurred on the way to the front, so the minefields were Ukrainian,

I heard that too early on but everything else seems to say or intimate Russian minefield.

the Russian-speaking regions will become part of Russia (although this was not originally planned), the rest of Ukraine will have a non-bloc status and will be demilitarized. Or in general will enter into an alliance with Russia. Look at Chechnya – well, who could have imagined this ten years ago? The longer the war goes on, the more expensive the cost of defeat will be.

The cost of the war even if it ended tomorrow has been far too much. Nor can I see an outcome that doesn't lead to greater problems down the road.

1) Supposedly a Ukrainian victory equals restoration of their 2014 borders. Then what? That doesn't lead to longer term economic prosperity nor national security. Even then membership in NATO is very questionable as it would require unanimous consent of NATO members. US-Ukraine bilateral defence agreement? Really? I'm not sure that's an easy sell to the US voters. A mutual-benevolent relationship with Russia is the only long term solution. It can happen. It's happened in other places, but a prerequisite is abandoning territorial ambitions of the other.

2) Russian victory as you've described essentially means Ukraine as a vassal state of Russia in one form or another. Even if Russia can quell any resistance, such a glorious victory would make Putin unassailable politically; and, as history shows it would wets his appetite for more – the Baltics, Moldova, Poland, Finland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. – all based on the premise that the West is weak and will not resist domination by the Kremlin. History is full of such fantasies and while many might chime in and agree with the "weakness of the West" one shouldn't underestimate the fact that most people prefer their own tyrants and poverty over the benevolence and riches of an occupier. Personally I have no desire to live under Russian "benevolence and riches". Hmmm…yeah, go figure?

3) Victory for NATO/EU/The West = ????? I haven't a clue and neither do our policy makers. I suppose they wish this hadn't happened but it has. At best I'm guessing the objective is that Ukraine survives as an independent political entity, but that's pretty nebulous. You may be surprised but by and large in "The West" we haven't yet committed to a Ukrainian victory. We certainly haven't mobilized to a degree that reflects that. Personally I think if someone says they're at war with you, you should believe them – and, yes, that means recognizing the risk of nuclear war is high and one way or another will get higher. *sigh* Regrettably I don't see a way forward with a lower risk of the use of nuclear weapons.

I was sure Cuprum was the guy with the green bag… (smile)

Armand

I was sure Cuprum was the guy with the green bag…

😄

Then what?

1) Once the Ukraine's have recovered all it's territory including Crimea. The UN sends Peacekeepers to guard the border. Just like e.g. Cyprus, etc.

Then start to rebuild the Ukraine with USA's etc. help.

Start War Crime trials even if Putin, etc. have to be tried in absencia …

Rebuild Ukraine's Military so they can defend themselves again if the get Imperialistic again…

Russian victory

2) We i.e. NATO prepare for another Russian invasion of a neighbor. Once Putin can rebuild its military. Could be a decade or so.

Keep NATO troops in Poland, etc. For obvious reasons.

Start War Crimes trials in absencia of Putin et al .

Victory for NATO/EU/The West = ?????

As I said in 1) … Plus get the US/NATO to rebuild their forces just in case.

I see no point in discussing the characteristics of tanks – we will see everything on the battlefield …

Prigogine's position completely coincides with mine. Prigozhin only says that it was possible to fight better (we know about his conflict with the Ministry of Defense, so he simply could not help but say this))) I also affirm that everything is just beginning, both sides have huge reserves. And luck can smile on either side. The Russians are supposed to have up to 200 thousand people in the reserve.
I think everything will be clear in a couple of weeks.
Girkin has always been a pessimist since 2014))) This is already a meme on Russian resources))) But, nevertheless, his view is also useful – it always allows you to carefully look at the weaknesses in the Russian situation.

shadoe01, a large number of contradictions have accumulated in the world, and at the same time, negotiability has significantly decreased. The professional level of the political elites of all countries has monstrously degraded. I think we are on the verge of a new world war, but it will take place somewhere at the turn of the 2030s… For now, there will be a period of tension and proxy wars between the leading powers.
Russia is unlikely to seek to attack Europe. Russia does not have the strength for such actions, and they will not appear soon. We need powerful industry and science, and much more. All this is now in a rather oppressed state. But here, in one form or another, to assemble its own "macro-region", where a single international currency (different from the dollar and the euro) will operate, where there will be no customs restrictions and there will be extensive economic ties – Russia is interested in this. This, most likely, will not be a single state, but it will be an entity similar to the European Union. It is not yet clear to me whether Russia will enter a single zone with China (which I would personally not want) or whether it will create its own. I think in the coming decades the world will be divided into five or seven such macro-regions… The era of global peace has come to an end, at least on the basis of neoliberal ideas. These are my personal thoughts)))

Hmmm … so the Ukrainians blew their own tracks off in their own minefield whilst traversing up to the front?! To their start line for a probing attack or recon?! Is that what we think? … !

Hmmm … so the Ukrainians blew their own tracks off in their own minefield whilst traversing up to the front?! To their start line for a probing attack or recon?! Is that what we think? … !

Not quite.

What I've heard: Russian drone spotted Ukrainian column advancing toward the front, traversing a road through Ukrainian minefields. Russian artillery fire hit a Leopard. The other vehicles attempted to go around the wreck and hit mines.

Russia is unlikely to seek to attack Europe. Russia does not have the strength for such actions, and they will not appear soon.

Putin seemed rather uninformed at today's news conference. He thinks they blew up Ukrainian intelligence HQ (there's video of the missle going into a nearby river!), and that they've repelled the Russian rebels from Belgorod. Seems he's living in a bubble.

"I see no point in discussing the characteristics of tanks – we will see everything on the battlefield"

Well you started it 🤣

@Something wicked. No we did not. You did, you invaded Poland😉

Soledad – No we did not. You did, you invaded Poland

Bet you have landing craft shaped spaghetti!!

Tally Ho!

Cuprum,
Thanks for your views on Progozhin and Igor Girkin.

To me it seems that Prigozhin has a bit less faith in everything working out than you do.
It could just be that he is part of the Russian system that you have faith in, and his views are necessary to motivate the changes that you are confident in.

I personally have more faith in Ukraine's planning and operations. I would far prefer that they were given more equipment faster to complete their goals.

US has announced 15 additional Bradleys to replace losses, so that seems to point to fairly low losses compared to Putin's recent assessment of 160 Ukrainian tanks lost vs 54 Russian tanks.

Prigozhin and Igor Girkin are two points to look at and try to get a range of views on how things are going. But the real picture will only be clear after some time.
At least they are more realistic than those who live in the land of pink ponies.

Russian victory?
When muscovites can preserve their nazi quasi state and not fall into civil war between their warlords.

Sho Boki – explain ?

Explain what?
This is Russian doctrine, to kill or slave all Ukrainians and destroy Ukraina as independent state. After fresh instructions from Putin Russian propagandists now tells such stories..

twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1668740902842429443

And they scare their own folk with opposite, with fall of the Rossian Empire.

So if nazi Rossia state remain in some form, without reparations, contributions, significant disintegration and civil war, they already are happy, lucky and victorious. Which cannot be allowed.

I get it now ! And yes, I agree with your post.

So I was wrong, the Ukrainians did run into Russian mines while attacking. Video of Bradley hitting mine:

youtu.be/wE2Z8HazI4Y

According to Denys Davidov vblog today, the Russians were able to pose with the vehicles but not recover any. The Ukrainians then took the ground and recovered the vehicles.

To quote that Ukrainian soldier: we are lucky they are so stupid…

If you can pose with those vehicles, you can set them on fire too. Don't give your enemy the opportunity to recover them.
smh

Todays update from the Facebook link I posted:

Top Stories
-- Russia has a bad day in general.
Military
-- In Zaporizhzhia, while there has not been any confirmed recaptures, there is a large number of photos and videos of Russian losses (both of men and material) and photos of POWs.
-- 5 Russian MSTA-S where destroyed by counterbattery fire in a single area, . In addition, another MSTA-S was captured, meaning a entire Russian Battery was taken out.
-- On the Kreminna front, there was a mass casualty event for Russia. According to various reports. a Russian unit was told to wait for hours in a field to await a speech by a Russian general. Ukraine hit the formation with HIMARS. The general was unharmed.
-- Adam Delimkhanov, a major Chechen politician and head of internal security was injured in a Ukrainian attack in occupied Crimea. Russia and Kadyrov have been trying to downplay it since he was confirmed to be alive.
-- Quietly it appears that Ukraine is making measured gains in the greater Bakhmut area.
-- Ukraine still has not committed its main force in the spring offensive.
-- Russia has been visually confirmed to have lost 2041 tanks, To give a idea of how many tanks that is, if they where stacked on top of each other they would be 4.55 km (2.8 miles), or half the size of Mount Everest. This does not include other equipment such as IFVs that have been lost.
-- Russia used two Iranian made Shahed-136 drones to attack a S-300 system, the attack failed.
-- Putin publicly reiterated that "Volunteer" fighters need to sign contracts with teh Russian government, as the spat with Wagner continues.
-- Russian Duma working on bill to allow Russian Military to recruit convicts to the Russian army proper.
-- Odesa was hit by missile/drone attacks last night.
-- It likely the Blitz on Ukraine continues tonight.
-- Reports that policemen in the DNR have been drafted into the Russian Army.
Other
-- Russia plans a "Windfall tax" to help cover the massive cost of the war.
-- Putin threatens to make a "Sanitized" border if attacks on Russia proper continue.
-- Rescue operations continue in the Kherson area.
-- Due to the "Unsafe and Unprofessional" actions of Russian jets, US CENTCOM is now deploying F-22s.
-- James Risch (R-Idaho) blocks HIMAR being sold to Hungary till they approve Sweden entry into NATO.
-- Serbia arrest 3 heavily armed Kosovo police men.
-- Serbia claims they where in Serbia, Kosovo claims they where in Kosovo.
-- Very tense border tonight at the border and for KFOR.
-- Israel has carried out various airstrikes in Syria
-- More Vulcan launch delays.

Some initial analysis …
link

So I was wrong, the Ukrainians did run into Russian mines while attacking. Video of Bradley hitting mine:

I thought so. A capable force rarely runs into their own mines.

To quote that Ukrainian soldier: we are lucky they are so stupid…

Becomes clearer everyday …

If you can pose with those vehicles, you can set them on fire too. Don't give your enemy the opportunity to recover them.

Exactly … e.g. in WWII North Africa, UK CEs would demo and KO'd AFVs. Just so the DAK could not recover them to repair to use again or take parts, etc.

Some good posts guys ! Seems there are places in the world that are very "busy" …

A tank is just a tank, no matter how well designed -- and is further only as good as its crew and tactical doctrine. From what I can find the Ukrainians decided to launch a frontal assault at prepared Russian defenses, across open terrain, through minefields without adequate air and arty support. What did they think was going to happen? Why did they use the same Russian-style tactics that the Russians used before and got the same result? What happened to all that NATO training they were supposed to be doing??

Compare the images from Vuhledar with Orikhiv. I think the differences speak for themselves. But I'd strongly make the point the Russians didn't gain a breach at Vuhledar but the Ukrainians clearly have breached the forward Russian positions.

And there aren't many options for breaching a mine belt.

The secondary line is probably harder yet. More mines, concrete emplacements, hard communications lines and more artillery in range.

But since the Ukrainian's seem to have made it quite clear that for the moment its 'de-occupation or death' I'm pretty certain they will hazard the chance with the resources they've got.

a tank, no matter how well designed -- and is further only as good as its crew and tactical doctrine.

Yes and I've said that many times before here … e.g. a weapon system is only as good as the crew and leadership.

the Ukrainians decided to launch a frontal assault at prepared Russian defenses, across open terrain, through minefields without adequate air and arty support.

That may be true based on what we see in the link. Was it a Probe or a Movement to Contact or ?

Some good points ROU …

Something we all have to remember. None of us were there, we don't know what the real situation was, etc. So, the best we can do is evaluate the link only with what we see there. Plus, what we understand about both forces being engaged. Is from what we have seen in past engagements, etc.

It looks like the Ukraine's forces may have screwed up ? Maybe ?

Plus, it appears the Ukraine has not deployed many of their units into the Offensive at this time. A strategic or tactical reserve, to exploit where their probes find weakness, etc. in the Russian lines e.g. Blitzkrieg type ops(?). Their offensive plans seem to a more "measured", than an all-out general "offensive", at least at this time … But we will have to wait & see …

Plus, it appears the Ukraine has not deployed many of their units into the Offensive at this time.

Some sources say only 3 of the 12 Ukrainian brigades assigned to this offensive were used in the 1st week. I assume more would have been committed by now.
UK MoD expects it will take months to break down Russian defences. Whether that is possible, I guess we'll find out.