"Wagner to withdraw?" Topic

Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut

BBC: link

Not my area of knowledge, but does Prigozhin have national political aspirations, like being the president?

Well if Wagner does withdraw that is a positive event for the Ukraine.

Well, Bakhmut doesn't have any gold mines…

Being less supercilious it raises a couple of questions like just how much of Wagner is actually left! Also is the ammunition issue purely political or symptomatic of wider supply issues beyond the known logistical problems? I doubt Wager's potential withdrawl represents a significant issue for the Russian military who can probably shove some more mobniks into any result gap.

Prigozhin is thought to have political aspirations. I also don't know to what extent he's funding the group out of his own pocket. He may be one of Russia's elite but that doesn't mean he has a bottomless bank account. Particularly if it can reasonably assumed he's no longer that popular with Putin…

To where would he withdraw? Back to the welcoming arms of Putin's Russia? Sounds like a good way to be rounded up, charged with desertion, and shot.

As an aside to the whole mercenary-thing. There was an interesting snippet in the latest ISW update.

"The head of the Ukrainian sociological study of Russian prisoners, Andriy Skotsyk, stated that 40 percent of 400 Russian servicemen voluntarily surrendered.[63] Skotsyk noted that nearly 55 percent of the respondents were motivated to fight in Ukraine to improve their livelihoods in Russia, while nearly 36 percent expressed commitment to fighting due to trust in Russian propaganda or support for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The study found that 50 percent of Russian prisoners of war revealed that the Russian military command expected its units to remain in their positions in the event of a retreat, and only 17 percent stated that they were fully equipped with proper ammunition. ISW cannot independently verify the results of this study." link

I find the fact that there is a significant number of Russian soldiers motivated by economic reasons interesting. If your there for the "money" that suggests to me that on balance you intend to be around to spend it…(Probably also says a lot about Russian society and economic opportunity there).

Also is the ammunition issue purely political or symptomatic of wider supply issues beyond the known logistical problems?

Possibly Russia is stockpiling due to upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

To where would he withdraw?

Africa, they were active there before.

Possibly Russia is stockpiling due to upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

That would be a logical realistic move. But I don't know if Putin/the Russian are capable of this type of critical thinking ?

Just imagine the Army the US could field if we emptied our prisons!

@torokchar

The US would have the largest army by far😉. No other would come even close.

Possibly Russia is stockpiling due to upcoming Ukrainian offensive.

Watched a random piece of NBC coverage that popped up in my feed on Ukraine which included talking to Ukrainian troops training behind the lines (including with what looked like a DP) and they were basically saying the Russians had been holding back but were now getting jittery and expending a lot more ammunition recently.

But Bakhmut was supposed to one of the areas they were still on the offensive so husbanding ammo there doesn't make complete sense…

I cannot think of another time, post Thirty Years War, that one major combatant relied on a private mercenary entity, unaccountable to the military command structure, for a specific sector in a major military conflict between nation states.

It is as if the Coalition Forces in Gulf War One allocated a division sized sector to Blackwater. Russia is truly a third world miliary appended to a gigantic nuclear arsenal.

He lost the manpower he recruited out of the prisons, well, the ones that survived. They fulfilled their contract for the agreed upon time. Much harder to motivate those that voluntarily walked into your offices and offered to serve for a nice paycheck. If no one is making it back home to tell of the great way you treat and take care of your people and waving a big paycheck around, you're not going to get many volunteers.
I also think his complaining is a ploy to try and get Ukraine to commit more troops to his area to try and fight to take back the city. Ukraine will get the city back, but it will be thru indirect pressure which will make it worthless for any Russian to hold on to the rubble.

"Not my area of knowledge, but does Prigozhin have national political aspirations, like being the president?"-79thPA

I was wondering the same thing…

1. Possible collapse of Russia into warring factions and a man with a private army might be able to carve an empire for himself?

2. Putin pulling them out in case there is a coup, and he needs factions that might be potentially loyal to him in the coming conflict? (Loyal means paid well to be loyal)

"Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut"

Just the core group/bodyguards that he trusts. The rest will be left as a speed bump while he escapes (the Russians probably considering the whole WG to be expendable…)

Just imagine the Army the US could field if we emptied our prisons!

"The Dirty 100,000" … Plus we could also send male military age illegal aliens. All of them. If they survive, they can be US citizens.

It is as if the Coalition Forces in Gulf War One allocated a division sized sector to Blackwater.

FWIW we had 2500 US troops in A'stan before the tragic evac. Along with 3000 contractors/CIA, etc., …

1. Possible collapse of Russia into warring factions and a man with a private army might be able to carve an empire for himself?

Have not seen something like this in Europe since the 15th Century, IIRC.

(Loyal means paid well to be loyal)

That is what makes the world go round.

Russian energy company Gazprom also has a private army in Ukraine, they converted their security personnel into soldiers. Army is called FLOW.

They, too, are complaining of lack of supplies.

+1 McKinstry

Well if I were Prigozhin I would stay away from window when in a building higher than a few stories.

I cannot think of another time, post Thirty Years War, that one major combatant relied on a private mercenary entity, unaccountable to the military command structure, for a specific sector in a major military conflict between nation states.

Personally I think it looks more like the private armies of 'livery and maintenance'.

He is just making noise to get more artillery or supplies.

Still I would not go in a building over two stories high if I was him.

Bottom line the Russians and their "questionable" merc BFFs are enemies of Ukraine. Kill them all is the short answer. Until they all leave Ukraine's territory …

I find the fact that there is a significant number of Russian soldiers motivated by economic reasons interesting. If your there for the "money" that suggests to me that on balance you intend to be around to spend it…(Probably also says a lot about Russian society and economic opportunity there).

A lot of the contract soldiers in the modern Russian military tend to come from the more remote and rural areas of the country, where the economic opportunities can be limited. For young men in these areas, being a contract soldier can provide better (and certainly regular) salary than they might find in civilian life locally, and there are no particularly high educational requirements either.

Also, casualties suffered by soldiers from these remote areas are not particularly likely to cause civil unrest in the big cities, which is convenient to the political leadership.

Also, many of the Russia's ethnic minorities are said to be over-represented amongst the contract soldiers.

Well known points, there are also jobs in Russia that require you to have completed military service. Kind of begs another question, a lot of Putin's popularity resides in those same socially conservative rural areas. What happens when the bodies bags start to stack up or villages end up with a significance number of their young men with life changing injuries. Rural life pretty much anywhere can be hard, harder still with some kind of chronic issue, and that's in a country with a social security net, agricultural subsidies, free at the point of use healthcare, and a major hospital only 2 to 3 hours away by road. No idea what that would be like in Russia….

Of course they whole Wagner-thing could be theatre though I'm not sure what what kind of mis-information goals would be met by the rather weird pseudo-political psychodrama that's being played out.

tend to come from the more remote and rural areas of the country,

Not really a surprise. In many cases rural areas supply many militaries with much of their ranks historically.

FWIW – in the US Military many come from rural areas. Smaller towns with limited opportunities, etc. The US is full of these type towns/villages. Most in the US Military come from the Southeast of the country. An interesting sidebar. Many of these SE states were former CSA. However, race plays no part in this paradigm.

Again, these modern Eastern Euro Merc forces really could be a threat. Need to be eliminated along with the Russian Military.

i am hearing the rant has worked, he is getting the ammunition he wants so he is not withdrawing his forces

Well if that's the case … just more targets to be serviced. If Ukraine has the ammo …?

This assessment from the ISW gives a really good impression of just how messed up Russia's chain of command in Ukraine appears to be with regard to the ability of Prigozhin and Kadyrov etc to interfere..
link

It is becoming more obvious that the Russian's Chain of Command, does not know what it is doing. And as we see the Merc forces there are not really under positive control. Like everything else we see in Putin's Military …

Sounds like there could be a Russian Civil war when this one ends.

May be a good thing …

Not so much a civil war but a war of independence I suspect the Federation will be done for…

Warlordism is clearly an option.
One of that pet Russian we're keeping around here, having a crush on them, said they're professionals.
So, just buy Wagner.

$ talks … even with Warlords and Mercs …

US troops vs Russian Mercs in Syria, 2018 …

link

link

Oh my.

Hmmmm … trouble in [a workers] paradise ?

Wagner chief's rants highlight Russian infighting ahead of Ukraine offensive

link

Armand

Well so it's all in the family …

The Russians are amazing … never have seen a bigger cluster than Putin's War …

The Ukrainian Offensive is a hoax… the money laundering will still happen… but the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will not.

Yes, yes because Hunter and Hilary are selling Bradley's and Patriots on Craigslist using that laptop….

Well the Ukrainian official position is that "the offensive" hasn't started and yet they've managed to push Russian lines back around Bakhmut. So much for it being secured for Victory Day. But I'm sure that's just a temporary measure to allow the Ukrainians to evacuate the city in prelude to the planned inevitable Russian victory.

Peter Zeihan I know but includes a back of the envelope calculation that's a rather interesting juxtaposition to Russian MOD claims of Ukrainian causalities! Perhaps doubly interesting given that Putin is all of a sudden interested in peace talks again…
YouTube link

ROU +1

FWIW – I believe once the Ukraine gets all the US, NATO, etc. AFVs, etc., etc. they will go on the offensive. Estimates are they will have over 800 MBTs + 3 times that many or more IFVs/APCs. Plus, they have a lot of US/NATO FA.

The Russians will again be tested, and come up wanting, IMO.

Putin betrayed by mercenary Russian soldiers as military secrets shared with Ukraine – leaked document

link

Armand

Wow … ya can't trust anybody over there !