"Russia downs US drone - what did we expect?" Topic

OK, I'm not sure why this is a surprise or even an outrage to anyone. The US is providing active intel to Ukraine during a war with Russia, and the Russians bounced and downed a US "Reaper" intel drone. From reports an SU-27 paced the drone, dumped fuel on it and then clipped a propeller to knock it down. Seems like pretty tight flying.

The US response so far:

[US European Command] It said one of the Russian fighters "struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters." Prior to that, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 several times before the collision in "a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner," the U.S. European Command said in a statement from Stuttgart, Germany

"This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional," it added.

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Love the "environmental" concern expressed by the US pentagon. Seriously? And also, why didn't the US "keep this in its pocket?" Why is the US CHOOSING to make escalatory statements??

For a Gen-X Cold Warrior-era kid with many friends and family who served during the Cold War, this kind of stuff happened ALL THE TIME during the Cold War. But we didn't pump it up or inflame relations. A few Cold War stories.

1. Brother in Law flew in AWACS intel jets in international airspace along the Kamchatka Peninsula. The would often need fighter escort, and there would frequently be defacto dogfights and incidents. Russian jets would lock fire control radar on US jets, they would do high speed "bounce" passes at the US AWACS plane.

2. Friend in Germany flew Apaches. On patrol along the inter-German border they would be "engaged" in mock helo combat with Hinds that would dash towards them and even cross the border before flying back into East German airspace. They would dogfight each other short of gun fire. He recalls literally flying a Hind into the ground.

This never made the news. It was not in anybody's political interest to do so.

I had a family member pull duty in South Korea. He hated doing patrols along the DMZ because the North Koreans would frequently fire at them -- never made the news. It was not in anybody's political interest to do so.

Many people were killed during the Cold War in these types of clashes, almost always described as "training accidents." It was not in anybody's political interest to say otherwise.

So what is the political interest or advantage to put this out there???

To keep support high for Ukraine? Prepping the USA for things to come?

I served with guys that had all kinds of stories about incidents on the DMZ that never made the news. Hell, there is a lot of things that happened around the world that never made the news, the public is just too fragile minded to understand the nature of the world they live in. The kinetic stuff frequently gets farmed out to third parties…

Next time, the drone defends itself? Or drones start patrolling in pairs?

I think a kamikaze drone with no markings taking down one of their fighters is a good, measured response. The pilot can bail out over the Black Sea.

To keep support high for Ukraine? Prepping the USA for things to come?

That's the only thing that makes sense, keep the sense of crisis pumped up.

If they tried to keep it under wraps, and it got out, which it would, the same people would be complaining that it was being kept secret from the public for devious political reasons.

A Chinese fighter flew in front of an Australian patrol aircraft and dropped chaff.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Environmentally unsound?, I really hope that's a euphemism for something.

Let's send a balloon over Russian airspace and see what happens.

"the same people would be complaining that it was being kept secret from the public for devious political reasons."

If that was a jab at me Druzhina I am not "complaining" and I have not about any conspiracy related topics. Perhaps there is something else on your mind?

Why put this out there?
Well it's obviously going to come out, there's a lot of interest in the amount of stuff we're giving, so it's the obvious decision.
Yeah, the 'environmental' comment was a bit silly and unnecessary.

"Environmentally unsound?"

They are catering to the current administrations catch phrase of the day. You use descriptive words the boss likes to hear…

Did he clip it with the nose of the jet?

Can the Russian jets fly at the same speed as the drone? I wonder if it wasn't an accident due to being too close.

The Russian aircraft reportedly was damaged and almost crashed.

It reminds of when the Chinese fighter jet collided with our spy plane off the coast of China.

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"SU-27 paced the drone, dumped fuel on it "

Lucky it was only fuel LOL (the other thing would have been a real insult… ;-)
I don't think much will happen or escalate (other than the diplomats screeching like monkeys), it's pretty much tacit 'business as usual'…

If they tried to keep it under wraps, and it got out, which it would, the same people would be complaining that it was being kept secret from the public for devious political reasons.

Why would it get out? The only people who know what happened are the Drone pilots and control center crew, and command authority. I'm pretty sure a buddy of mine once flew those while stationed at Creech Air Force Base, NV. Other than I knew he flew drones he never said what he did , what missions he flew, etc. The AFB is locked down hard and the crews will not blab or talk to the press.

So this was a *political decision* to issue this press release and stoke tensions.

it's pretty much tacit 'business as usual'…

Yep, but talking about it is not business as usual.

+1 Druzhina

If that was a jab at me Druzhina I am not "complaining"

You may have missed the snip in the OP.

Why would it get out? The only people who know what happened …

and the Russians! Plus anyone with radar coverage or in the foreign base it flew from for confirmation. Then there are the people in the administration and their successors, forever.

Yes, it was a political decision to inform the public. It would also be a political decision not to inform the public. Some people would complain about it either way.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Yes, it was a political decision to inform the public. It would also be a political decision not to inform the public. Some people would complain about it either way.

Meh. What would they say, "We suspect that a US drone may have gone down over the Black Sea."

And the usual US response would normally have been "We can neither confirm nor deny…""

And then behind the scenes in normal times the US would torn a new in the person or persons who tried to go public.

If they kept it secret, a Russian could announce that it happened (with camera footage), to expose that secrets are being kept from the public. It would be confirmed by a Romania or 2 who new the drone did not return and by Turkish radar. There would be congressional inquiries started by the opposing party.

Or, 1 Russian official could announce they had knocked down a US drone inside their airspace to defend the motherland. Another Russian official would announce it to praise the brilliant actions of their great airforce. Another Russian official would claim that nothing happened. Another Russian official would claim that Russian pilots saw a US drone fall out of the sky because American tech is rubbish. The various media and internet would go frenzy. There would be congressional inquiries started by the opposing party. If the administration denied it, then the footage would be released. It is the cover-up that gets you.

Any of this would be a distraction for the USA, playing into the hands of Russia.

"We can neither confirm nor deny" is something the US military can say, but a politician saying this would not end the distraction.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Maybe the pilot leaned out of the cockpit and whacked the propeller with a shovel.

I'm surprised the DoD didn't complain that the pilot was being Propultionist by exercising Jet Priveledge.

I strongly doubt anyone in either the US or Russian defense establishments are terribly worried about escalation. The Russians have been buzzing ships in the Black Sea since pre-2014 and botching a close pass on an unmanned object (the fighter is substantially more valuable than an MQ-9) and fussing about poor Russian behavior in the Black Sea, Baltic or off the coast of Alaska is hardly new, unusual or unprecedented.

Maybe it was connected to the more than one million US 155 millimeter artillery shells that have rained down on Russian troops in Ukraine.
No wait, it's the political angle that matters….

Why is the US CHOOSING to make escalatory statements??

Maybe it is because I don't understand partisan US politics, but, it seems strange to me as an outsider that a Russian attack on a US aircraft is portrayed (by someone I assume is American) as escalation by the US rather than by Russia.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

As many of us have voiced; One stupid or intentional mistake, can lead to dangerous escalation.

Fortunately this was an unmanned drone. But I have listened to politicians and others demand retaliation.

So what retaliation would be appropriate? Knock down a Russian drone? Shoot down a Russian jet? More useless sanctions? A strongly worded reprimand? Send 5 fighter jets to the Ukraine? Send troops into the Ukraine? Threaten to send all our politicians on a fact finding mission to Moscow? (Ok I admit that last, is probably breaking the Geneva convention and is cruel and unusual punishment).

Calling the actions of the Russian pilot reckless and unprofessional is exactly the opposite of escalation. It's an extremely mild protest that basically says there will be no further consequences. Why are people getting their panties in a wad over such a minor incident, handled in such a mundane manner?

The Russians will go on looking for ways to lash out without offering major provocations they can't walk back from, and the US will go on supplying Ukraine with lethal weaponry and intelligence support. This is a very "ho-hum" kind of incident.

I have not followed this case very closely, but as far as I understand the publicly stated plan of the US leadership is to keep on carrying surveillance flights in the international air space over Black Sea more or less as previously.

That does not exactly sound like escalating things, but neither does it qualify as giving into any pressure from Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian air force hopefully has enough sense not to try this sort of a trick again very soon.

Why are people getting their panties in a wad over such a minor incident, handled in such a mundane manner?

Because if it were handled in a mundane manner -- we would never hear about it.

You know, I don't think the response even rose to the level of "harsh language".

Here is an example of the responses I referred to:

"Graham responded. "What would Ronald Reagan do right now? He would start shooting Russian planes down if they were threatening our assets."

There were politicians and commentators of both parties making comments like this and my question is, will they influence the administrations response?

Agree with Graham or disagree?

Ronne Ray gun!

My fellow Americans, I am pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

That was a real American

+1 Griefbringer

Watching the 3 main cable news/opinion channels, it looks like a very muted response by administration this time.

Agree with Graham or disagree?

So it is not the commander-in-chief, who is blamed for escalation in the OP, who is escalating? He is only blamed because of partisan politics? Graham, who is trying to escalate, is on the other side of partisan politics? Luckily Graham is not the commander-in-chief.

…

A Russian has claimed that the drone crashed because it maneuvered too sharply (i.e. US tech is rubbish).

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

You seem to have gone OT into pure partisan politics.

The US government is established by the US constitution, so it is of course the Establishment. I would expect a government to have policies.

Besides government controlled media such as in Russia, which media is the "Establishment Media" is in the eye of the beholder. Here Rupert Murdoch owns the establishment media.

If other people become the government they can have their own government policies (and perhaps a new definition of "Establishment Media"). US voters will decide.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

The United States does not hide the fact that it is transferring intelligence information it has collected regarding the Russian armed forces to Ukraine. Ukraine uses this information when planning and delivering strikes against Russian troops (for example, repeated attacks by Ukrainian sea and air drones on Sevastopol). From this it follows that this drone, very likely, carried out a combat mission in the interests of one of the warring parties. Therefore, it can and should be considered a legitimate military target. Since there are no official hostilities between Russia and the United States yet, it was necessary to destroy the enemy reconnaissance aircraft in an "implicit" way. The pilot of the Russian fighter showed the best qualities and should be awarded for a successful mission.

From this it follows that this drone, very likely, carried out a combat mission in the interests of one of the warring parties.

Collecting intelligence while flying in international airspace is not a combat mission.

Vid seem to show Russian ran ito it. Only d**n Fool would 'hit' something when flying Fast Jet!
Days of 'Tipping' Doodlebugs are long past!
'Dumping fuel, maybe.

Collecting intelligence while flying in international airspace is not a combat mission.

I doubt Russia sees that distinction when US satellites pass intel to Ukraine, US drones pass intel to Ukraine, while US-built HIMARS blast Russian troops and US built SAMs shoot down Russian aircraft, while Ukrainian troops wearing US-purchased gear and US-made weapons engage Russian soldiers.

We're in a hot proxy war on the border of a nuclear power. Yes, Russia started it and Russia is in the wrong, and we should help Ukraine defend itself. But to what level? Dunno, we have NO clearly enunciated, achievable strategic goal. Well, we did, but the Establishment have expanded from a clear mission of defending Ukraine against Russian aggression to an ever changing morass of jingoistic manure -- in it to win it, in it to the end, we'll hold Putin accountable, we'll punish Putin as a war criminal, etc., etc.

Now we have the Establishment demanding we shoot down Russian jets.

This is not 1942 or even 1982 where the US has a robust manufacturing base and the willingness to tap its own generous natural resources and a strong economy. The US banking system stands on the verge of collapse – literally, in case you haven't been following the news, and now Credit Suisse is tottering on the edge. We don't have hundreds of billions more to spare.

If people really cared about Ukraine they would be talking about sustainable long-term defense and pushing Russia to the peace table asap -- before economic and political events pull the rug out from under all of this.

Yes, the US are collecting information and pass this on to Ukraine, no doubt. But trying to ram the drone is just plain stupid. A Su 27 is not "worth" downing a drone.

And if Russia believe that this information gathering is enough provocation to down the drone I believe Russia would also accept Ukrainian attacks on civilians in Moscow, St Petersburg and other Russian cities. After all that is what Russia is doing to Ukraine. If there is "total war" which justifies downing US drones in international airspace surely Russia would not mind getting its civilians in mentioned cities being attacked…

But most likely it is a Russian pilot who misjudged speed and distance…

Yes, the US are collecting information and pass this on to Ukraine, no doubt. But trying to ram the drone is just plain stupid. A Su 27 is not "worth" downing a drone.

It's called "bumping" or "bouncing" and the US and Allies and Soviet Russians did it all the time during the Cold War. It's intended to send a message short of actually firing on something with weapons. Cheeky, rather than provocative. Those were the "rules of the game" for about 50 years, ya know.

But most likely it is a Russian pilot who misjudged speed and distance…

Maybe, but other than claims from the same people who told us COVID came from a pangolin and not a Chinese bioweapons lab, what proof do we have that the Russian jet was damaged all? Could have been, sure. Was it? Dunno. Seems like the Russian pilot flared hard and didn't impact. I also didn't see any debris -- the drone's props slowed to a stop, no bits flew off. And any impact would have certainly destabilized the drone into a death spiral, which we also didn't see in the drone footage.

Anyways, here we are arguing about minutiae when sparking WW3… why?

I questioned on Balloon issue… but wonder what effect Afterburners might have on Drone? I had never thought about 'Fuel Dumping'!

And they aren't that self absorbed that they would do this just for themselves. IMO you are missing the PR strategy that has been in play from the start. Get out in front of Putin on every story so the world sees how he manipulates and misleads. Force him to reply, then release the video and show the world his BS.

rhetorically cast their enemies as 'at the same time too strong and too weak' wiki

Russia does this a lot e.g. giving Patriots to Ukraine will be a provocation – Patriots given to Ukraine are rubbish.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

The Russians video what they are doing.
View from 🇷🇺 Su-27 to 🇺🇸 MQ-9 Reaper
@markito0171, 7:23 PM · Mar 15, 2023.

This may or may not be the MQ-9 Reaper in question, but, there will be more video ready to be used if the US tries to keep secrets or if it lies.

The attack on the Reaper by fuel dump video in a thread by Greg Bagwell, Mar 16, 2023

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Reminder: Please avoid partisan politics.

Reminder: Please avoid partisan politics.

Question: Why does the American Establishment seem intent on inflaming tensions with Russia?

"Ministry of Defense of Russia
✔
⚡️ On the morning of March 14 this year. over the waters of the Black Sea in the region of the Crimean peninsula, the means of controlling the airspace of the Russian Aerospace Forces recorded the flight of an American unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 in the direction of the state border of the Russian Federation.

◽️ The flight of the unmanned aerial vehicle was carried out with transponders turned off, violating the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime [regimen] for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards.

◽️ In order to identify the intruder, fighters from the air defense forces on duty were raised into the air. As a result of sharp maneuvering around 9.30 (Moscow time), the MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle went into uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface.

◽️ Russian fighters did not use airborne weapons, did not come into contact with an unmanned aerial vehicle and returned safely to their base airfield."

Translation of what the Russian MoD said on 15 march 2023

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

SB, is there some way you are seeing this as other than political?

Soledad, you don't know Russian very well. Differences in the mentality of Russians and Ukrainians are minimal, if they exist at all.
Do you want to scare the Russians with attacks on civilians? Russia has been attacked by Islamist terrorists for several decades. Exploded apartment buildings, metro, planes; schools, theaters with full halls were seized. Including in Moscow. The casualties often numbered in the hundreds. What was the result? To intensify the confrontation. And to rally around the leader (even the most useless). The war will simply turn into a war of annihilation.

‘Apocalyptic Conflict': Attack On Russian Aircraft In Neutral Airspace Will Be Seen As Declaration Of War — Top Diplomat

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Armand