"What do you call a group of 14 Leopards?" Topic

"A good start!"
link

A Company of Leo IIs is a good start. The Ukraine is prepping to go on a major offensive(s). With all the AFVs NATO is sending. The Russians have many less MBTs than when they started. And their crews are not up to Ukraine's crew standards. I'm thinking based on everything we seen, these Leos will do fine. And more Russians will die in turn.

Exactly.

Oh, and my OP should have included "Pending German Approval" (smh).

a Leap?

Oh yes Leopards can leap ! 🐯

🐯 looks like a tiger to me. But we get the idea !

The relatively sudden jump in the seriousness of the discussion about supplying MBTs is interesting. I can't believe that this is all international one-upmanship. Something has changed.

Probably a race against time with "support fatigue", winter, economic impact of ongoing war, and a change in US congress (whatever that turns into). Are western nations deciding they don't need tanks anymore (talk of UK Challengers and the French vehciles) or are they just using this to "garage sale" them and then cry about a lack of tanks that needs to be rectified immediately? Poland is getting M1A1 for a cool 3.75bn so that's nice.

link

🐯 looks like a tiger to me. But we get the idea !

Yeah … I couldn't find a Leopard emoji !

The relatively sudden jump in the seriousness of the discussion about supplying MBTs is interesting.

Well a long as the Ukraine can use, supply and maintain whatever they get. And I think they can/will. The Russian armor has taken very high losses. And their crews are poorly trained, motivated, lead and supplied. So, it will be interesting to see which NATO, etc. MBTs are the biggest killer of Russian AFVs.

From the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine's Twitter:

link

:)

There have been several attempts to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Germany has blocked all of them. The deal to sell M1 tanks to Poland while approved is still being negotiated according to the article. Poland is currently receiving the first part of a large order of South Korean tanks and other military vehicles. link

To go back to the original topic, a prowl of leopards ?

No, 140 Leopard 2 would be a start.
And get 1400 combat-ready in 2023, Europe-wide.

Since the Poles have thankfully, and I mean that; taken the next logical step, which was cleverly prepared by the French, there is really nothing left for Germany to do but follow suit.
So I think Chancellor Scholz will probably give his approval after he dampened the German Angst by taking cover behind the request of some fabricated loose coalition of determined states after the next meeting of the NATO Contact Group in Ramstein on 20.01.2023.
Here is already a short excerpt of his upcoming speech my AI buddy and I foresee:
"At the suggestion of Poland and Finland, we have jointly come to the conclusion that we cannot prohibit states that are willing to do so from providing Ukraine, invaded by Putin's imperialist Russia, with heavily armored vehicles to defend its territory.
Still, neither NATO, nor Germany, are or will become combatants in this conflict as a result.
Russia must not win this war.
Given Germany's history, Germany itself will not send Leopard 2s to Ukraine.
Blah, blah, blah."

Something has changed.

Yes, it has.
It has become clear that Putin will not give up, Russia is behind him and the West may well lose.
Especially if it waits longer and hesitates.
Belarus is unlikely to invade itself, but it may threaten and distract, also on the border with the Baltic states and Poland.
Russia will continue to deploy troops, train them, and throw them to the front, no matter how many die.
Five hundred thousand, one million.

The Russian population will grumble, but resign itself to its fate, preferring it to the looming alternative of losing the war, while the propaganda hysterically rises in the direction of the "Great Patriotic War".
Then, at the latest, NATO will have to massively step up to maintain the balance of power in Europe.

Welcome to the 21st century.

Still believe the Leo II in the Ukraine's hands based on Russia's poor overall military prowess, etc. will be effective. With the high losses in Russian armor, etc. The Leos should do fine. Again, a weapon system is only as good as the crew manning it.

As far as Russia supporting Putin's War. I had heard Intel sources estimated only about 1/3 of the old Russian/USSR hardlines, etc. are supporting this disaster. But no matter Putin and his yes men, cronies, etc. will fight the war as long as they can. I think he/they know the Ukraine will not give in to his FA, etc. trying to beat them into submission. Like we saw with the Nazis Blitz over the UK during WWII. It didn't work then.

I think Putin is hoping to hold what he has and the US or someone will convince the Ukraine to make peace. Putin gets some of the Ukraine, e.g. the Donbas, Crimea, etc. He claims a great victory. But, IMO won't be able to have a parade in Red Square as he does not have much left to roll and march down the street.

Not Leos but UK gives ten Chally 2:s. So now that another country has taken the lead with MBT:s maybe Germany dares to allow OTHER countries to donate Lepopards.

Before you say ten Challenger 2:s are too few and so on, yes it is few but it is signaling that more will follow. As always it is difficult to be the first. As long as some one else leads most will follow.

Seems to be 12, I assume the initial 4 for familiarisation and training purposes and then the other 8. I assume once there are capable crews more might follow.
link

Bottom line the Ukraine needs MBTs & IFVs, etc. to go on the offensive to push Russia off its land. So, everyone who can needs to send what they can …

And yes, no matter what the crews need to train on those new AFVs, etc. To become proficient.

Interesting point though I suspect that Ukraine may up to a point be able to improvise and adapt.

link

They certainly appear they can … They are fighting to liberate their nation "Imperial" Russia. They are very motivated …

Now getting a dozen of Chally 2 s. U,.K.
Not much really…. but Russia… NOT Happy!

I'm sure those will be welcomed by the Ukraine. The Russians not so much.

12 Challengers is very much in 'its the thought that counts' bracket but it may be in part a political gesture or there is some feeling that may be if Poland back-fills the back-fill then there are another 50 just the other side of the border…

The UKs basic problem is there aren't very many Challengers in circulation compared to say M1 Abrams or Leopard II.

one year on whats the russian armor situation?

As an update, it appears that Germany has given consent to the shipment of Leopards.

When you combine the Leo's & Challys with the other recent AFVs promised (Bradley's, Marders, & AMX-10s), Ukraine is looking at a good amount of Offensive might to conduct deep & fast penetrations.

Mind you, it will probably be 2 months before we see Ukrainian Crews properly trained to use these.

12 Challengers is very much in 'its the thought that counts' bracket but it may be in part a political gesture or there is some feeling that may be if Poland back-fills the back-fill then there are another 50 just the other side of the border…

Yes, but just the Leos, Marders, Bradleys, M113s, etc. the Challengers will be part of Combined Arms Teams, etc. Understandably the UK doesn't have that many to start with. But Poland is getting M1s and the ROK Black Panther K2s. So they may be able to send the Challengers to Ukraine. Bur again the Russian AFV assets have been significantly attrited. That fact alone is in the Ukraine's favor. The USA may be saving up their M1s for a future conflict(s).

one year on whats the russian armor situation?

Well like I and others have said. Much of the Russian armor has been destroyed, abandoned/captured, etc. The Russians are trying get a lot of 2d or 3d rate Infantry to support their remaining AFVs they have.

As we saw the Russians pulled T-62s out of mothballs. As they needed all the MBTs they could get. I'd venture a guess at this time most of the T-62s are destroyed, abandoned, captured, etc.

I don't think Putin is going to pull a couple of Tank Bdes out of his at this time. And AFAIK, Putin's "allies", e.g. PRC/CCP, North Korea, and Iran are not sending any of their armor to him … yet ?

Visually confirmed Russian losses by Oryx: Tanks (1614, of which destroyed: 947, damaged: 73, abandoned: 59, captured: 535).

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

The BBC seems to be reporting 14 Challenger IIs today.

"… the UK doesn't have that many to start with. But Poland is getting M1s and the ROK Black Panther K2s. So they may be able to send the Challengers to Ukraine. "

Certainly the UK doesn't have that many Challenger 2s but Poland doesn't have any at all – how can they send Challengers to Ukraine? There was/is a UK deployment to Poland but those remain UK owned and operated, just like the various other UK military deployments in continental Europe.

Druzhina +1 Good intel …

Certainly the UK doesn't have that many Challenger 2s but Poland doesn't have any at all

It was reported earlier that the UK was sending Challengers II to Poland Army. IIRC as many as 50 ? To back fill all the Russian equipment that was sent to the Ukraine from Poland. Poland still has to defend itself from possible Russian aggression. However unlikely …

There was/is a UK deployment to Poland but those remain UK owned and operated,

I don't doubt that UK troops in Poland for training & operating their own MBTs. Just like US usually has a 5000 man Mech Hvy or Tank Hvy Bde Cbt Grp in Poland for training. But IIRC, the 82d ABN and 101 Air Asslt. Div. have Bde Cbt Grps there as well. The US has about 10,000 troops in Poland IIRC.

However according to these reports the UK is sending Challenger IIs to the Polish Army. Seems some Challenger IIs will be part of the Polish Army, crewed & used by them. After some training, of course.

link

bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

link

There are many more reports on this … but there is a good start for your perusal, if you like.

And if the UK doesn't have that many Challengers … well we all know who to blame. If that is the case. The US is lucky, we have a 1000 + or more M1s in moth balls. The US may end up sending M1s to the Ukraine ?

If the UK needs more tank support than they have for whatever reasons. Just like as always, the US & UK are very good allies. The US would send Tank Hvy Bde Cbt Gpr(s) if the UK needed Tank support. After all the UK & US are NATO members as well.

M1 tanks are an awesome piece of kit but as the American army says itself it is fuel thirsty and maintenance heavy. In other words it might not be "good" for Ukraine due to its heavy logistical tail.

For the US who fight with logistics it is no problem but for Ukraine having to transport huge amounts of fuel over long distances and lousy roads is not a war winner.

Ukraine needs a tank that is easier to maintain and does not use so much fuel so fast like the M1.

I am sure that US says no for a reason, not cause they are stingy and wants to keep the old tanks for themselves. That reason is logistics and support and maintenance.

All good points. And yes, the M1 is log & maint. heavy. Been there … done that as a Mech Hvy Bde BMO. But again, as always there was rumors rolling around.

Of course the US may need many of their M1 as there still are threats out there, e.g. the PRC/CCP. The M1s may have to go to Taiwan along with other US assets. However, IIRC Poland is buying some M1s as mentioned before.

Appears the UK is also sending 30 AS90.
link

A Forbes article seemed to suggest that the UK was sending additional vehicles sufficient to equip a brigade but I've seen that nowhere else.

Though at least someone significant in the military thinks we might be being over-generous. But then we did scrap our old carriers well before we procured new ones…while crossing out fingers that nothing bad happened in the interim.
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64294635

IIRC the Poles are purchasing M1's to cover the flatter areas of the approach to Warsaw and the K2s for the more mountainous areas.

Yes, as I mentioned, I have heard the Poles are buying M1s and K2s. I don't know if it for the various terrain, but that is certainly a consideration.

I can say after serving 22 months with a Mech Infantry Bn. Forward deployed along MSR1 in the Western Corridor of the ROK. The terrain there is dominated by rice paddies and mountainous terrain. Throw a small village now & then here and there too. Regardless the K2 is one of the better MBTs on the market.

Germany is still refusing to allow Leopard tanks to be sent to Ukraine unless US sends tanks. link

Well, that is not good … the Ukraine needs MBTs to go on a major offensive(s) … Hopefully they will come up with a solution. Russia has to be pushed out of the Ukraine.

If Germany doesn't want to upset countries that their tanks will be used against, perhaps they shouldn't be in the business of selling tanks.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

There's still a mountain of ww2 angst any German politician has to drag around.

Bit of a sore subject, panzers.

I mentioned the war once, but I don't think I got away with it.

( To paraphrase basil.)

The interesting hypothetical question would be what would Germany have said to a Ukrainian request to procure some Leopard IIs prior to the invasion?

The German governments response frankly seems to make very little sense on a number of levels. Even their own public seemed bemused. Regardless of who provides stuff Putin's cheerleaders and useful idiots will run their mouth and threaten nuclear fire if the line is crossed. Granted they might get a bit more yardage with the whole German tank thing, but really what are they going to do start photoshopping Hitler into the commanders cupola? No one who counts in the international community is going to care – frankly could well end up validating a lot of countries decisions to buy German (+1 Druzhina) and that includes several countries that were invaded in WW2 as well. And so far every line has been crossed and nothing has happened. Short of actual NATO assets getting involved Putin knows he really can't do anything.

I do wonder if ultimately Poland might just flip Germany off and hand their Leopard IIs over anyway since they are buying Korean and American. Sure it would go to court in the EU but that would probably take years to resolve.

Sholtz may secretly wish other countries would send their Leopard IIs without his permission, relieving him of having to make a decision.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

"No one who counts in the international community is going to care – frankly could well end up validating a lot of countries decisions to buy German (+1 Druzhina) and that includes several countries that were invaded in WW2 as well."

VERY good point, surely nothing sells an MBT more than footage of it demolishing other MBTs

Well, there is a lot of footage of Ukrainians doing just that. With mostly Russian designed and upgraded equipment + some NATO support.

When in the beginning of the war when I saw footage of Russian AFVs, with turrets blown off, rusted orange from fire, rubber all melted, etc. I'm pretty sure no one or most did not get out of the Russian MBTs, APCs, IFVs, etc. As we have said, the Russians were not fighting modern mobile combined arms warfare.

As we see they were/are poorly trained, motivated, lead, supplied, etc. They could have rolled across the border with all T-90s, T-14s and the new IFVs on those chassis(s)[forgot the nomenclature most are proto-types AFAIK ?]. The Ukraine would have handed them their again. The Ukraine was very motivated to defend their home turf. It is their backyard. Plus, again, a weapon is only as good as its crew & leaders.

Well this would be an interesting development if true:
link

They have to get those "Panzers" there … period. But along with US M1s … we will have to wait and see.

Abrams main battle tanks being delivered to 🇺🇦 under USAI rather than PDA is an interesting development by John Ridge, Jan 25, 2023.

The version chosen won't have depleted Uranium or Israeli 'Trophy'.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Yep, just saw that on the news. 30 M1s … + Berlin will send 14 Leo IIs. Putin is upset, and they are making threats again. But what are they going to do ? They can't fight worth a … but we discussed this before.

IIRC Poland is sending a large amount of upgraded T-72s & BMPs. Plus, France is sending a large number of AMX-10 RCs and the US is sending 50 M2s + a number of Strykers as well.

The US said the rest of NATO needs to send more AFVs, etc. Of course, the problem with that, much of NATO had downsized. So, their assets are limited. They thought that Russia would be no threat … guess they were wrong …

I wonder if the Ukraine will call their Offensive "Barbarosa" ? 😁

From Military.com – A look at the Leopard II – FWIW –

link

You can now add Spain to the mix:
youtu.be/zvZrItncTjs

Leo 2s are good tanks. But they need the numbers. They don't have magical invulnerable armour.

And they need the support of ifv. The mbt is the tip of the spear but that spear head needs body and a haft.

Andy +1

Modern Maneuver Combined Arms warfare… Something the Russians seemed have missed or forgot. Their losses demonstrate it.

This might be the numbers they need Andy:
link