"Three scenarios for how war in Ukraine could play out" Topic

ANY SEASONED intelligence analyst might have scoffed had they been told in March 2022 that Ukraine would still be an independent state eight months later; that Ukraine's army would have killed or wounded 80,000 Russians; that the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be at the bottom of that sea; and that Ukraine's air force would still be flying. Ukraine has defied expectations. It is winning the war. But winter is coming and Russia is mobilising. Consider three scenarios for the year ahead…

The Economist: link

Putin dies and the war is over.

Pay wall.
Isn't it just Win / Draw / Lose ?

Zelensky gets new TV show offer and negotiated settlement ends the war?

Putin dies and the war is over.

Some of the alternatives are worse. Medvedev? Kadyrov?

Pay wall.

I think it's a free registration.

Putin may go, but someone worse could take over.

No matter what … the West needs to support the Ukraine to destroy as many Russian Forces as possible. The Russians can't fight a war of attrition in the 21st Century. If the Russian public willing to let Putin et al get away with this lunacy. They deserve what they get … A lot of dead bodies for one.

Russia withdraws from all occupied territory in Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, and Chechnya.
Russia gives up all their nuclear weapons.
Putin goes to prison, and pays billions in reparations to Ukraine for rebuilding.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

I agree with Legion 4 (I usually do). It is much better we fight the Russians through Ukraine than with our own boys and girls. I wish we could arm Ukraine with deep strike capability in order to bring the war home to the Russian civilian population. They do indeed deserve everything they get and I see that as a way to end the Putin regime.

I do believe that the West will win this war. If Putin dies because of a disease or a revolt will put him out of a window is of lesser concern cause there is not much the West can do about it (I guess).
It is clear that the West has to provide the means to the Ukraine state. What interests me the most is the question what kind of warfare will be the most effective, an artillery war with the destruction of logistic hubs and lots of dead russian conscribts or a manoeuvre warfare with lots of tanks and IFV.

They do indeed deserve everything they get and I see that as a way to end the Putin regime.

Yes I think the US top leadership waited too long to send a lot of equipment that the Ukraine needed. I think the US wanted to broker a deal. But while Putin was lining up on the border, we along with NATO should have been sending a lot more weapons of all types. I think the US did not want to "upset" Putin.

Once again our leadership looked weak, timid, feckless, confused, etc. When Putin saw the self-made debacle of the A'stan. It only emboldened him [and even Xi, Iran, Un and islamic terrorists].

Those types only understand strength, and nothing else. We just should have sent weapons like HIMARs, etc. way before Putin crossed the border. And must now continue along with NATO supplying and supporting Ukraine. And yes, this eventually may topple Putin's regime.

the question what kind of warfare will be the most effective, an artillery war with the destruction of logistic hubs and lots of dead russian conscribts or a manoeuvre warfare with lots of tanks and IFV.

. There is no answer but combined arms, something the Russians failed at miserably and continue to do so. Modern combined arms mobile maneuver warfare – Tanks, Mech Infantry, CEs, FA, ADA, Gunships and CAS is the only way to fight. Destroying log centers is part of those tactics with CAS and FA. And overrunning them as combined arms forces rapidly penetrates, exploits and maneuvers pushing into enemy rear areas.

Combined Arms/the Air-Land Battle Doctrine, like Blitzkrieg, is based on moving fast with all supporting arms and firepower. FA alone like Putin is doing now is not a solution. If you can't seize, take ground and destroy enemy forces you won't "win".

And I have said before poorly trained and motivated troops without capable leadership and log support … Well, we see the results. The Russians can't really do anything save for firing FA. Which like the Nazi Blitz over the UK, won't work.

If you can't fight combined arms you will lose … in this case it is only a matter of time.

Yeah, the Russians are losing, but are the Ukrainian forces able to win? Are they able to fight a mobile war like the Air Land Battle doctrin asks for? The US could, but the Ukraine forces had suffer loses in equipment and troops on a scale that are similar to the Russian losses afaIk.

The Ukraine is doing something right. Part of that they understand combined arm. We have had US military personnel/CIA in Ukraine since 2015. Only leaving a few weeks before Putin crossed the border. We taught them and they learned. Yes, the Ukraine has taken losses, but they are retaking ground. The Russian tactic of FA bombardment won't work. Just like the Nazi Blitz over the UK in WWII didn't.

Nor their human wave tactics that has been seen lately. Didn't work in WWI.

You can't win unless you can take and hold ground. As well as kill and destroy enemy personnel and equipment. Putin just buying time, hoping for brokered peace. Or the Ukraine breaks. And he gets to keep the parts of Ukraine he has claimed to occupy. Then claim victory. Putin also forgot some lessons learned, like is Vietnam. It's the Ukraine's backyard …

Do you have reports that say otherwise about Russian human wave attacks ?

FWIW –
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There are more reports of Russian human wave attacks … but I think there links cover it pretty well. Could they all be wrong ? Do you have any reports that say otherwise ? Please post …

I'd agree that the Russian's aren't engaging in classic human wave attacks (at least from what I've read). But given the causality rates the distinction may be moot point…

"Let the bodies hit the floor" … As we have noted many times before, the Russian tactical abilities across the board are marginal at best. But generally, very poor. So, IMO human waves are not that "unlikely". They just want to bombard the Ukraine into submission. With primarily FA of all types. Again, hoping to break the Ukraine's will and carry on the fight. Then Putin will keep any piece of Ukraine he can and claim victory. However, he will have very few bodies and equipment to have a "victory" parade in Red Square.

Carnot, you repeated the Russian millbloggers comparisons of Bakhmut with Verdun. At Verdun massive artillery bombardments were followed by large human wave attacks. At Bakhmut the Russian artillery bombardments are not as large as they were at Poposna due to logistical problems. The infantry attacks that follow are small due to previous massive losses of infantry. They are sent forward on pre-planned courses without flexibility or combined arms under the threat of execution if they retreat. Just because they are small does not mean they are not human waves – just that they are not effective.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Druzhina +1

Could the Russian military be more up ?

According To The Western Media The Russian Army Is Exhausted And Ukraine Is Preparing For a 'Major Counter Offensive'

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Armand

I think the Ukraine will be successful in this offensive and even others. And finally push the Russians out their nation, costing Russian many more losses …

Not so easy….

Armand

The Russians continues to attack Bakhmut … advancing over their own dead bodies … As the article says, "what madness looks like" …

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