"Biden Administration Tells Congress That Ukraine Can" Topic

… Retake Crimea

"No offensive is imminent, but officials worry that a large-scale attack that threatens Russia's hold on the peninsula could push Putin to use nuclear weapons.

A Biden administration official recently told members of Congress that Ukraine has the military capability to retake Crimea, but some officials are concerned any large-scale offensive that threatens Russia's hold on the peninsula could push Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons, say two U.S. officials familiar with the matter…"

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A little optimism…

Armand

I hope it does …

From a Russian/American guy…

"For one. 90% of the population view themselves as Russians, have always viewed themselves as Russians, and have no interest to join Ukraine where their culture, language, and now even the Russian Orthodox church would be banned.

Two. The overwhelming opinion in Russia itself is that Crimea is a part of Russia. Just like Americans believe California and Texas belongs to the US and not Mexico. Russia would react the same way that the US respond if they felt their territorial integrity was at risk. Let us just say that it will be brutal.

Three. If Crimea is facing an existential threat, it would be due to NATO's involvement. Russia would respond with a formal declaration of war against Ukraine, and the mass mobilization of the entire country.

Four. Russia will not use nuclear weapons on territory that is inhabited by Russians. Nuclear weapons will be targeted at NATO. Specifically the U.S. And the U.K…"

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Armand

For one. 90% of the population view themselves as Russian.

Nonsense. Also doesn't count the refugees.

Not sure quite why the US would be too twitchy about the use of nukes. Basically Putin has done nothing that diverges from Russian nuclear weapon doctrine or much in the way of heightening alert levels. If Putin uses a nuke he looses. China won't be happy. Other allies of Putin may well get cold feet as international opinion crystallises against Russia even further. Basically Ukraine becomes a member of a very select club and guarantees a special martyrdom status which will give them virtually infinite international political capitol for several years and a huge influx of foreign aid. I suspect it would result in pretty much every bridge not burnt by the sanctions so far going up – basically any Russian asset abroad would probably be appropriated. And that before we get to any internal trouble that may result.

Well I certainly hope we keep the money pouring so they can take Crimea and maybe then move on to something else nearby?

For one. 90% of the population view themselves as Russian.

Isn't Russia like 80% ethnic Russian? by Kamil Galeev, Dec 11, 2022.

or how Russia produces favourable (fake) statistics.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

I though the 90% might be based on the "referendum" "result"?

Nonsense. Also doesn't count the refugees.

From what I understand, many of the ethnic Russians from Crimea are fighting in the Ukrainian Military. As they were/are Ukrainian citizens. I'm not there, but that is how I understand it. Yes ? No ? ???

Russia will not let Crimea go, it is the home port for the Black Sea fleet that gives them the ability to project naval power across the region. It's like thinking the US wouldn't react if Mexico tried to take San Diego, the home port for the US Pacific Fleet.

That's Putin's line, I have no doubt he'd use TacNukes to keep Crimea. But that's also your diplomatic trade opportunity.

Russia cedes back and revokes claims to all Ukrainian territory other than Crimea, and Ukraine gets the rest of its stuff back and maybe discounted rates for oil and natural gas for some time period.

I though the 90% might be based on the "referendum" "result"?

It would have be at least 96%…

Speaking with Ukrainians that live/lived near the Russian border. They say speaking Russian in those areas was a convenience, rather than a desire. Russian businesses and tourists would only speak Russian so it was easier to go along with it. This was taken as proof by some officials that the population was pro-Russian.

I can't see Crimea being retaken unless somehow the Russian army collapses. That is wishful thinking.

Crimea has been part of Ukraine since the mid-1950s. That's longer than Alaska and Hawaii have been states.

That's long enough for it to be part of Ukraine and the people to be Ukrainian in my book.

We need a European peace deal that gives back all the territory Russia took from Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine as well as removes all Russian nuclear weapons, just like Ukraine give up.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Sounds like Santa's being asked for a really magical delivery.

IMO the Crimea was taken in 2014 by Russian aggression. The Ukraine should get it back one way or another. Seems to let Putin keep it will be like "rewarding" bad behavior.

I can't see Crimea being retaken unless somehow the Russian army collapses.

The Russian Army may very well be on the way to collapsing.

From a Russian/American guy…

I think he is correct in some ways. However, who will the ethnic Russians in the Crimea side with ? I thought some were in the Ukrainian Army ?

As far as Nukes being deployed if Crimea is taken back by Ukraine. I don't think Putin wants to start a nuclear exchange … then no one wins. Or some of his cronies, etc. will stop him from starting WWIII. And ending life on many places of the planet, even before the fallout starts killing in large numbers … With much of the planet will be dying one way or another.

I think Putin is willing to gamble that the US won't start Armageddon over a Ukrainian mech column invading Crimea that gets hit by a tacnuke. Do you think Biden will push the Big Red Button on humanity over that??

No the US will not be the first one to press the red button. If press it at all. However, can Putin hold the Crimea without using WMDs ? Seems he has not been very successful in holding much of anything. Hopefully some cooler minds will prevail if Putin and his cronies decide it is a good idea to use WMDs anywhere. I'm thinking the US and NATO may be able to stop Putin by using weapons other than WMDs. But that may only be in response to Putin's use of WMDs.