"very good report about the war in Ukraine" Topic

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A very long but good report about the war so far. Russian armed forces were/are not as incompetent as I previously thought.

My bad in underestimating them. But, still not good performance by them. Sometimes the report is a bit difficult to understand as it is written for military professionals not for wannabe armchair generals like myself but still a good read.

Very crunchy piece of professional analysis with very measured language (as might be expected from RUSI) and relatively high level. While the language and terminology are a bit opaque, there is only so much I'm going to learn from watching Perun on YouTube, but I sense between the lines there is a certain amount of implicit admission that the Russian military performance was seriously substandard.

Thanks. Interesting stuff. Applicable to my science fiction gaming, too.

Yes the report is not for the faint of hearted. What I learned was that the lousy performance was/is a bit unique to this conflict.

Russia went in with a very faulty plan and did not expect resistance. Also that opec was "too high"/units not getting orders in enough time to prepare properly.

Had Russia attacked say Poland it would have (probably) performed better as they would have expected resistance and not had such a faulty plan (bypassing enemy units, moving in transport mode et cetera)

But still very poor planning, like Hostel, sending in choppers and losing 20%, that is not acceptable losses for just getting there.

Using special forces as mech inf/assault inf is a serious waste of resources.

1. The AFRF currently operate with a hierarchy of jointery in which the priorities of the
land component are paramount, and the military as a whole is subordinate to the special
services. This creates suboptimal employment of other branches.
2. The AFRF force-generation model is flawed. It proposes the creation of amalgamated
combined arms formations in wartime but lacks the strength of junior leadership to knit
these units together.
3. There is a culture of reinforcing failure unless orders are changed at higher levels. This
appears less evident in the Russian Aerospace Forces than in the Ground Forces and Navy.
4. The AFRF are culturally vulnerable to deception because they lack the ability to rapidly
fuse information, are culturally averse to providing those who are executing orders with
the context to exercise judgement, and incentivise a dishonest reporting culture.
5. The AFRF's capabilities and formations are prone to fratricide. Electronic warfare (EW)
systems and other capabilities rarely deconflict, while processes for identifying friend
from foe and establishing control measures are inadequate. The result is that capabilities
that should magnify one another's effects must be employed sequentially

wow

This is a great report since it provides insight into all the things that YouTube and Funker don't show. I like it's crunchy nature. It illustrates that inspired Soldiers are more important than the latest gear as long as you can supply the beans and bullets. It also shows that combined arms works when properly employed. I almost feel sorry for the LNR and DNR Cannon Fodder. ;-)

Great report and the AFRF were clearly screwed by Putin, his inner circle and the FSB intelligence report appears to be a complete work of fiction.

However, that only gets the AFRF an excuse for the initial days of the war. There have been nonstop examples of AFRF incompetence in 2022. Conscription of rabble and throwing them into the line untrained, unsupplied and under unequipped reeks of desperation and stupidity. The current strategy seems to be who can endure the longest and not how they will defeat the Ukrainian military.

FSB intelligence report appears to be a complete work of fiction.

Probably a shoe in for next year's Nebula or WY Boyd award!

Fascinating read! Thanks for putting this up.

It is a good report. We see FA is still the King of Battle. Plus the man packed AT weapons, were pretty effective in combat. And again, today if combined arms is not used properly it will cost you !

Thanks for that, finally got round to reading it.

Basicaly Russia needs to accept the westen approach to Command and Control. However it will also mean and end to Corruption and Cronyism. Nether China or Russia want to embrace cultures that they cannot fully and utterly control and bleed off funds for themselves.

See this one…

Ukraine SitRep – Media Ignorance, Counter-Artillery War, Three Lost Armies

link

Armand

Tango001. I did not find this report trustworthy at all. It felt alot like the usual Russian propaganda. Same old, same old.

These are just tiresome to read and a waste of time. Either written by a Russian propagandist or some useful idiot in the west who has some intellectual challenges.

There is now, a rather worryng tendency to 'write off' the Russian Military. Certainly, the invasion of Ukraine failed in it's intent… so far. Incompetence shown at every level. BUT… Russians are STILL there. Surviving troops now experienced and hardened… and western analysis of tactics will eventually feed into training, etc.
Newer weaponry has had battle testing and will be adopted. Logistics will be improved.
Any possible future conflict with Russia may find that military NOT as pathetic as many seem to regard.
Remember 90s… 'Peace Dividend'… when Soviet Russia 'no longer' a threat, so all could 'stand down'?
ALL nations blunder, sometimes.
Brits, Singapore, Dieppe. French Dien Bien Phu. US, Kasserine and Bulge… and Tet… never mind A'stan. Germany… well.
The future? I don't know what will happen. But, DO NOT write off Russian Military just yet.

A Tale of Two Armies … link Interesting read … how two of the world's "super powers" failed …

Remember 90s… 'Peace Dividend'… when Soviet Russia 'no longer' a threat, so all could 'stand down'?

Short sightedness by our elected and appointed officials. In both the USA and much of NATO. Looks like it almost bit us all in the . That may yet to be left to be seen.

What do you mean by "almost". Nato achieved its mission, and even now no Nato member is under serious threat. Cause what the Ukraine war has shown so far is that the AFRF sucks and is no match for the Nato forces.

"Surviving troops now experienced and hardened… and western analysis of tactics will eventually feed into training"

But what is their moral like? It just means that the war can not let-up on the Russians.

What do you mean by "almost". Nato achieved its mission, and even now no Nato member is under serious threat. Cause what the Ukraine war has shown so far is that the AFRF sucks and is no match for the Nato forces.

True dogtail to a point. NATO has to still supply the Ukraine if it hopes to defeat Russia … NATO is sending some of its equipment they have to defend themselves.

And NATO is not necessarily to just fight in Europe, e.g as in A'stan.

However much of NATO downsized to the point of being too small and of limited effectiveness IMO and others. They are taking some newer but old equipment out of mothball to send to the Ukraine. They mothballed much equipment has they couldn't afford to keep it fully mission capable or have the crews, etc.

The NATO charter was an attack on one is an attack on all. Many NATO forces went to A'stan after the USA was attacked on 9/11. So, NATO's mission expended to fit the threat. As it should have. As islamic terrorists were killing Europeans too.

And yes, as I have said many times, I'm sure you remember. The current Russian Forces are nothing like some of us here trained during the Cold War to fight, destroy and win. And not just in Europe. E.g. During the '73 Arab-Israeli War. The Russians whose military was very large. Plus add their WP "allies". They told the US that they could have an Airborne Div. on the ground in the Mid-East. Before the US could have a US Airborne Div. and/or a USMC Div on the ground. I think they could have done it.

NATO really should have been prepped to fight outside of Europe too and turned out they did, they had ot. But with the downsizing Divs became Bdes and later Bdes became Bns. Or units were deactivated completely. Forces became smaller.

But everyone knows never underestimate your known or possible enemy. "Pray for peace, but prepare for war."

Any nations' first priority is to defend its people. I think many in NATO were still relying on the USA. As even with the USA's downsizing we still were very powerful. And many in NATO were not paying the agreed upon IIRC 2% of their GDP. Depending on the USA.

So again, IMO NATO had to scramble and still is to support the Ukraine against Russian imperialism.

"Surviving troops now experienced and hardened… and western analysis of tactics will eventually feed into training"

But what is their moral like? It just means that the war can not let-up on the Russians.

Agreed, none of the Russian forces have not been very successful in their war in the Ukraine. For all the reasons we have discussed before.

Attrition of Russian forces is very high. The newer replacements are more poorly trained then their first waves crossing the border 11 months ago. As we know those first waves and follow on were not well trained or motivated and very poorly led and supported. Many dead, deserted, etc.

The Russians seem to have learned little of Western Tactics. I.e. Combined Arms. With their high losses they are relying of the FA to do all their attacks. As when they go toe-to-toe with the Ukrainian forces in most/many cases they don't do very well.

You can't make an effective modern combined arm force overnight. Or in Russia's case 11 months.

But also note: the Ukrainian Forces are "experienced and hardened" too and very motivated … they are fighting for their nation. And their enemy is committing war crimes against the Ukrainian people. Payback in a !

Not Russian… probably idiot….

Armand

@Legion4: I prefer not to talk about Afghanistan, as I see 9/11 as a terrorist attack from a organisation that is funded by some very different nations.
Of course you downsize your army if the threat has become smaller. As a German I have to say that having too big of an army is creating problems. Ask the French. And all other European neighbours.

Bottom line, 9/11 … I'm a dumb Grunt … we were attacked and had to respond. And NATO was there with the US. Does not matter who attacked us. They were jihadi/terrorists supported by some other islamic nations.

Again, as a dumb Grunt and American … the bigger stronger more capable military you have the better. "Peace thru Strength", which is a deterrent in itself. I don't see too big of a Military creates a problem. In WWI and WWII the USA was not ready … We knew we can't let that happen again.

It is still a very dangerous world out there … We need to be prepared and ready. The PRC/CCP, North Korea, Iran, islamic terrorists, even Russia … they are not friends of the West …

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NATO warns of Russia's long war with Ukraine vows to be ready.

link

Of course you can spend 60% of your money on military, but you might end up like the sovjet union.
You can spend 60 billion Euros a year and end up like Germany, with ammunition for less than two days of fighting.
Better be smart and do the right thing. There actually are a lot of things you can spend your money on, like health care and fighting global warming. Or paint for miniatures.
Now heading for the painting table

cheers!

Well, let me tell you … we probably won't end up like the USSR. Nor Germany! But who knows ?!? I may be driving down the road and see all signs are in Chinese, Russian then lastly American English ! Maybe Spanish too ?!? 😁😎

Better be smart and do the right thing.

If it was only that easy.

There actually are a lot of things you can spend your money on, like health care and fighting global warming.

If you watch the US media, the USA is spending a lot of money of $ on those very things. And many, many more. Some I don't always agree with, etc. But 'nuff said …🤫🤭

However, we have to be able to defend ourselves. That is a nation's 1st priority. Plus, as I said we don't want to be unprepared like in WWI & WWII … We couldn't let that happen again. E.g. after 9/11 we were on the ground in A'stan in about a month's time. Along with some of our allies, i.e. IIRC, the UK, "ANZACs", etc. Killing AQ, the Taliban, etc.

Or paint for miniatures.
Now heading for the painting table

Been doing that all afternoon …