"Russian missile hits Polish village, killing two" Topic

This is how things can get even worse, quickly -- Russian missiles striking and killing people in a NATO country.

ROCKET TERROR Two people killed by ‘stray Russian missiles' hitting a farm in Nato member Poland as Putin fires barrage on Ukraine

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Alas, I fear that NATO and our leadership will do nothing concrete to address this, other than bleating endlessly about it.

Seems like a Russian test to me.

Weakness invites aggression.

I don't think it was a deliberate test -- just bad Russian aim, but that's no consolation for the dead. The real test is what does Poland and NATO do now?

Seems to me it is classic Putin doctrine, push over the line to see how your foe(s) react.

They could have clearly prevented this with a sufficient buffer.

Putin is sending a message to the Poles about their support for Ukraine, all the while denying that the missile strike even happened (according to my news report just a few minutes ago), and blaming Poland for making this up to widen the war and make Russia look bad.

Well given how well Russian equipment has preformed….yes the Russians complete missed the entire county of Ukraine. As for NATO do we start world war 3?

I wouldn't expect any country to go to war over 2 casualties.

Just read that Poland is going to ask for Article 5. Might just be speculation for now, but this is a very interesting development.

I'm not sure this constitutes full-on intervention, especially because this could just have been an accident.

Damon.

Do you have a link, Damon?

It looks like the missiles "went long". Sloppy, like everything the Russians have done in Ukraine.

If this was a true mistake, the Russians should be apologizing their (backsides) off. If they're not apologizing, maybe it wasn't a mistake.

The Poles may opt for a proportional response against a military target. Hope it doesn't get out of hand.

Remember, Hungary entered WWII after Russia 'mistakenly' bombed a border town (their maps may have been outdated).

Send in the lancers.

Very much doubt we'll see a kinetic response in modern parlance. Might see a considerable beefing up of air defence closer to the border. I'd go with the Russians being sloppy and a missile being used a secondary role. I wonder if they were aiming at depots thought to handling incoming arms shipments? Seems a bit odd to be aiming that close to the border otherwise given the Russian preference for civilian infrastructure. Unless they were aiming for some kind of interconnector (no idea even if there are any cross-border power connections).

Still given Russian performance in general I wouldn't entirely rule out in the future some idiot picking a power station or some such off of satellite imagery not realising its the wrong side of the border be it Poland or Moldova.

He told reporters that the government was considering whether to trigger article 4, which would mean a meeting would take place of Nato members after their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" has been threatened.

The Guardian (blog): link

But…

Mariusz Gierszewski, the reporter for Poland's ZET Radio who initially wrote that stray Russian rockets had hit Poland, tweeted an update saying that the remains of a shot-down rocket were probably what hit eastern Poland.

We need more info before going after NATO for being weak. This report is only hours old, correct? Dapeters is right. It's not like Russia has impressed everyone with their targeting skills. Or any skills really. You can bet NATO is not looking the other way. They will need consensus and agreement from Poland on the response.

This does not seem like an Article5 matter right now, more like a terrorist attack or an accident. The new US missile base in Poland might be bugging Putin. He also needs to distract everyone after recent the recent news from Ukraine. He may want to deflect some attention from Biden and Xi.

But sheer incompetence seems more likely based on the ways things have gone for Russia. We should know more soon enough

"Who fired the missile is unclear," says J Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, who agrees that it may be from an S-300 system.

"We know Russia has been using the S-300 for ground attacks even though it's an air defence system, but Ukraine also uses them for air defence against cruise missiles."

BBC blog: link

And

State news agency Ria Novosti quoted a Russian "military expert" who claimed that Russian cruise missiles "would not have been able to reach Polish territory, but Ukrainian S-300 [surface-to-air] missile systems, functioning abnormally, could".

+1 79th PA.

This is why we elect Leaders to be calm and collected not rash and quick to anger.

Not apologizing, so…….

"He may want to deflect some attention from Biden and Xi".

Ha, ha, ha…….

This is why we elect Leaders to be calm and collected not rash and quick to anger.

Too bad he already said we're defending "every inch" of NATO territory…

Bill, that is so true. Just heard him say those exact lines on the news just now. But we know nothing right now, really. Probably end up like the pipelines. Lots of noise and then disappear from the news.

The news media has repeatedly confirmed the strike with 2 dead Poles. If reports are true Poland wants to invoke Art.4, which means all the NATO Honchos have a meeting. To decide the next move. US POTUS was to be at big dinner in Indonesia, but is MIA … However, the current report is he will give a speech soon about this event.

But sheer incompetence seems more likely based on the ways things have gone for Russia. We should know more soon enough

That is very true … The Russians are marginal at best and I'm being generous.

State news agency Ria Novosti quoted a Russian "military expert" who claimed that Russian cruise missiles "would not have been able to reach Polish territory, but Ukrainian S-300 [surface-to-air] missile systems, functioning abnormally, could".

A plausible theory … the Poles, US etc. on the ground should be able to tell what type of missiles they were. Pentagon is still investigating.

I think we can rest peaceably tonight … WWIII has not been triggered … yet.

Of course, never trust Putin et al.

Recent indications of S-300 surface to air… though Russians have just fired them off at ground targets anyway. BOTH sides have them.
Possible Ukraine misses, landing somewhere.

(In 1960s, my uncle found a live AA round in the loft of newly bought farmhouse… chucked it in river!).

Don't think even Putin is going to provoke Poland! Poles do NOT like Russia!

Those missiles have to go somewhere.

Legion he just had his conference. Did you see it?

Basically they asked if he would say anything about the situation in Poland. He said "no". That's the full extent of the conference.

"Biden replied "no" to reporters who asked if he would provide an update on the situation in Poland."

They then ended the "conference".

My worries have been taken care of and I'm now full of confidence. Yours? 🤔

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More Russian incompetence and nothing to start WW3 over.

I can almost picture in my mind some 18-year-old conscript, under trained and being screamed at to fire the missile. He is thinking, "math is hard" as he tries to calculate, degrees, trajectory, distance and directional heading. He is also thinking it would help if he knew exactly where he was. Eventually he just plugs something in and says, "close enough". He presses fire and thinks, " The sarge won't know if it hit or not all that matters is I look like I am doing my job."

Seems like it was a Ukrainian SAM gone rogue…

35th Why would he tell reporters about an event that just occurred, unconfirmed details, possible major implications for the NATO allies, not yet decided, etc. I would rather have him cut the media off than turn it into an ego driven release of hot air, telling us something would happen in a week or two.

Another tragedy for Ukraine, one for Poland, but not another insane mistake from Putin it seems.

I think wait and see is the sensible move 'Revenge is a dish best served cold'

I am by no means a missile expert, so I googled the 48N6DM SAM

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A Soviet designed missile with later variants of increased abilities. Is it possible the parts found could be Russian in origin or at least so similar they could not be told apart? Many Ukrainian weapons systems are derived from Soviet designs they inherited. The Twitter link Machinehead provided showed some pictures of fragments but nothing that clearly stated made in Ukraine.

@dragongunnie

Hopefully not degrees (x360).

Russia uses grads (x400).

I think OTAN uses mils (x6400)

Likely to be a rogue SAM, sad as it is, these things happen and because they are proximity weapons Soviet SAMs pack quite a punch. In Bugonjio, Bosnia, and other places in 1994 the Serbs used SA2 SAM in the anti ground roll, quite effectivily,

Tally Ho!

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It appears there is a growing consensus it is Ukrainian.

Thanks Stoppage I learned something today, Russians use Grads.

Tort

"35th Why would he tell reporters about an event that just occurred, unconfirmed details, possible major implications for the NATO allies, not yet decided, etc. I would rather have him cut the media off than turn it into an ego driven release of hot air, telling us something would happen in a week or two"

No Tort, A good leader tries to reassure his citizens that he and his advisers are in control of the situation and are gathering all the information possible as to what really happened. That the public can be assured that no rash judgments will be made. The citizens expect their leaders to be in control and feel reassured.

Something along those lines. All good leaders have done that in my lifetime in situations like this . Instead we get a terse "No" and a look like a deer in the headlights and then the reporters scooted out of the room.

Now this morning they are saying it was the Ukraine who did it. So question; since the Ukraine is not part of NATO and this is an attack on a NATO member, those who were calling for action when they thought it was Russia, should we retaliate against the Ukraine? That would seem logical if you felt like any attack on NATO is an attack on all members before. 🤔

No I don't, but I never called for action. Snap judgments and alliances lead to World Wars. We have 2 strikes. In baseball on strike 3, you are out and in this case, strike 3 as in WW3, and we are all out.

Well, the Polish PM have stated its probably an accident related to Ukraine's air defences. Trite, but what goes up must come down and the Ukrainians have been claiming some fairly substantial interception rates for Russian "cruise" missiles so they must themselves firing a substantial number of missiles.

I can almost picture in my mind some 18-year-old conscript, under trained and being screamed at to fire the missile.

Sounds like my Dad's story. He was drafted during the Korean War, and trained on light AA weapons -- Quad .50, etc. and told they will be shipped to Korea. Then the Army messed up their orders and his unit was sent to Germany to man heavy 90mm AA batteries…which they hadn't trained on. So on their first exercise they're all standing around trying to figure out what to do and an officer starts screaming at them to "Fire those guns!!" When they tried to explain they didn't know how and weren't trained on heavy AA guns, he just ignored them and screamed some more until they just tried to figure it out…they didn't know about the fuzes, ended up on timed fuse default settings that went off too close to the ground and showered the battery with shrapnel. Luckily nobody was killed.

You have made a good point 35th.

Amen 35th!

Legion he just had his conference. Did you see it?

Yes we seem to have averted WWIII. As we see it mostly likely was a Ukrainian SAM that missed. Probably an S-300 ? Both sides use them. I await the Pentagon report.

The NATO Art.4 meeting was certainly appropriate. Hope Putin saw it. However, we still need to keep up the support to the Ukraine. Again, we have to "punish" Putin/Russia for this 19th-mid-20th Century behavior. Pushing them out of the Ukraine and causing them more losses.

Sadly, Putin and many of the others who committed medieval level war crimes. Will probably go unpunished.

The West has to make Putin/Russia a pariah. Until they get leaders that are not fighting the last war. Putin is a Cold War dinosaur who should be put into a "museum"/jail/a grave etc.

This total fool and his supporters almost triggered WWIII. We can't let them get away with this. They have to be punished everything of WWIII. If the US/NATO's leadership in fact capable? And I think many of NATO's top leaders are, seemingly under the USA's leadership.

IMO in 20/20 hindsight the US & NATO, etc. should have started sending massive amounts of support months ago. As Putin was amassing on Ukraine's border. May have deterred Putin or caused him even more losses much sooner. Putin types only respect strength. We have to remember that when dealing with him and others like him.

My concern is, is the US leadership up to the task ? After the A'stan disaster which showed Putin the USA's poor incapable, etc. leadership. He must have felt he could roll in Ukraine with minimal problems. As the US leadership is nothing to be feared. Xi most likely feels the same.

The bottom line the US/NATO has to keep Putin in check without triggering a nuclear exchange/WWIII.

Tort. Gray Bear, thanks 😊

"My concern is, is the US leadership up to the task ?".

Clearly, the answer to that is no. When you can't even attend a scheduled dinner……

The NATO head seems to think they were Russian.

Time will tell.

I can say with 100% certainty though that if Russia had NOT been firing missiles into Ukraine by the scores at civilian targets, this would not have happened, regardless of who those missiles belong to.

To add to Thresher01…none of this would be happening if Russia did not illegally invade Ukraine in the first place. EVERYTHING that flows from that invasion is on Russia. Everything.

Hard to see were the US leadership has put a foot wrong in the Ukraine.

Biden re-invigorated a Nato almost emasculated by a previous regime. He orchestrated a exceedingly effective & unlikely economic boycott of Russia. The US isolated what was supposed to be a super-power, then armed the Ukraine to resist and destroy its military.

And, in the latest coup, kept the lid on possible escalation. "No", indeed.

How long did it take the US to humble the USSR in the Cold War? Two years of Biden has removed Russia from being a credible threat.

I do realise that domestic partisan viewpoints taint several of the opinions offered here but by any neutral GEO-POLITICAL viewpoint, Biden has ensured that the "the US is back, baby!".

Well done America.

"Biden re-invigorated a Nato almost emasculated by a previous regime".

Ha, ha, ha……

Actually, NO, our previous CiC actually got NATO to increase their defense spending, and/or committing to do that, by publicly shaming them.

In response, I refer you to the penultimate paragraph in my post, above.

When things like this happen, I can't say this too often before jumping to conclusions: " Remember the Maine".

Who has the most to gain by the action?

Zelinski was claiming it was a Russian missile, which has since been determined to be a Ukrainian air defense missile. Instead of bringing things close to a possible WW3, Wouldn't it have been "nice" of him to admit it was a Ukrainian slip up.

If you had not heard, this Coincidentally happened today.

Subject: Biden asks for more than $37 USD billion in Ukraine emergency aid | PBS NewsHour

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Interesting that Ukraine is swearing up and down that the missile is actually Russian, not Ukrainian. Propaganda, or are Nato trying to de-escalate by declaring it accidental and Ukrainian?

I tend to believe that it's Ukrainian missile that missed it's target, but who knows? Are the Ukrainians correct?

Food for thought- YouTube link

Ukraine / Zelenski will be terrified of losing support that Ukraine has.
It might be better to say 'Oh Sh*t'. Poles will undertstand… if unhappy.
'Collateral' happens.
Ricochets in a gunfight?
Or…might actually be Russian…just don't think intentional.

IIRC how Occom's Razor's logic goes – The Ukrainian AA missile missed its target. The target was a Russian missile on the way to kill non-combatants and destroy infrastructure in the Ukraine. The Ukrainian AA missile then continued its track and eventually it had to hit the ground. In this case on Polish territory.

"Biden re-invigorated a Nato.

No … Putin did …

Actually, NO, our previous CiC actually got NATO to increase their defense spending, and/or committing to do that, by publicly shaming them.

Yes, that is what happened and the rest of the story.

Biden has ensured that the "the US is back, baby!".

Many in the USA would disagree with that vehemently …

none of this would be happening if Russia did not illegally invade Ukraine in the first place.

Bingo !

As I posted already. After the A'stan disaster which showed Putin the USA's poor incapable, etc. leadership. He must have felt he could roll in Ukraine with minimal problems. As the US leadership is nothing to be feared. Xi most likely feels the same.

Predators sense weakness and only respect strength …

When I think of the previous guy, I always remember 'Washingtons army secured the airports" during the AWI. There are a number of other comments that indicated to me a fundamental lack awareness, uninformed command issues. There are some here who are supporters. In an actual debate not involving 'ha,ha,ha",I am certain that I woild prefer neither of these guys, but the current guy would never have let Helsinki happen. Weakness is a divided nation, after Jan 6 Putin have himself the green light. Not a joke.

Despite the blown evac operation in Afghanistan. I would also say "well done America" on Ukraine. We don't say this very much anymore, too disconnected from our own capabilities and realities.All my opinion,of course. I will now take cover.