"Greatest Effect? Death of Napoleon!" Topic

You were asked – TMP link

What would have had the greatest effect? The death of the Duke of Wellington at Quatre Bras, or the death of Napoleon at Ligny?

71% said "Napoleon at Ligny"
23% said "Duke of Wellington at Quatre Bras"

I can't say I agree. I mean Napoleon lost in the end (just a few days later) so his death at Ligny would have only accelerated things a bit. Wellington's death might well have given Napoleon a major victory and prolonged the war for who knows how long.

The question is incomplete.

If we're talking about the broader events timeline proceeding somewhat as historically, I'd agree with Napoleon at Ligny, because Napoleonic France ends there (although I suspect his legacy would not have been quite so polished and victor Hugo has fewer excuses to make). The Congress gets back to work and the Bourbons return.

If its about changing things substantially, there's at least potential with Wellington dying. The agreement isn't made with Blucher, the armies fall back on their supply lines and I suspect that without the losses of Waterloo, Napoleon might be able to hang on until 1816, then who knows? Perhaps Napoleon II dies at some future point as part of Franco-Austrian force trying to prevent German unification.

Bonaparte will still die relatively young, but I think there's at least the option of him not dying on a rock in the Atlantic.

Death of Wellington only relevant to English politics; even if Orange and Blucher couldn't have won the day after, Napoleon could only have hung on until the Austrians and Russians arrived in 3-4 months or less.

Death of Napoleon saves lives at the battle of the railway station so far more useful.

Napoleon died at Ligny in my very first wargame (Avalon HIll's Waterloo way back in 1969 when I was 8).