"China to Invade Taiwan this Year?" Topic

That would be the present mix.

Indeed …

Discover VN20 from China most protected and armed tracked armored IFV in the world

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China unveils VT5U optionally unmanned driving version of VT5 light tank

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Armand

Wow ! I like'm ! Too bad they are just targets … 🤩

Are these made out of metal? Those treads look kind of like plastic to me. But maybe that's because I have always owned plastic tanks.

Track shoes are metal with rubber track pads … Many times modelers paint their AFV tracks all metal. Where in fact they should paint the shoes dark metal, i.e. a black wash over the metal and the rubber pads Black-gray.

Ah! Thanks, Legion, as always.

👍👍

Well…… Biden met with Xi, and aside from the really sad power dynamic optics (Biden wearing a Mao jacket of all things, and then walking across the length of a public stage to greet Xi, who gave him a perfunctory greeting at best, etc.), when Biden tried to present the US' position on Taiwan. Xi got agitated before dismissively walking away from Biden and said that "peace and an independent Taiwan are irreconcilable, peace and an independent Taiwan, irreconcilable."

This comes just a few days after Xi paraded around in a military uniform telling troops to be prepared for war.

Maybe Xi doesn't believe we'll support Poland against his demands for the Gdansk Corridor…or do I have my analogies mixed up? It seems like Putin-ollini is having trouble attacking Greece…Ukraine…but the major power response and distractions may be giving Xi-tler the idea he can take Poland…er..Taiwan.

Yes, I know history doesn't perfectly repeat – but it sure has similarities and repeats the same patterns, because people be people across all of human existence.

Xi like Putin are going to do what they want to. As again they see USA's top leadership and staff, etc. as … again … weak, feckless, confused, etc. They lack respect or fear the USA's top leaders. Or they wouldn't be doing what they are doing.

Legion, I believe most of the top leadership is in the PRC's pocket, either willingly, or blackmailed. So of course they do the PRCs bidding.

I tend to agree … and it's been going on for a very long time …

Really? Are we really still doing this?

No comment … Next Question …

Excellent…

And the question is…

What good are hordes of infantry a war against Taiwan? I know someone suggested they are capable of a sort of reverse Dunkirk using civilian craft. I assume the war would begin with missiles and drones. What is the reality of getting enough troops on the island to help win and secure it fully. Airborne? Are there Chinese Marines and special forces able to deploy rapidly? What kind of experience does anybody in the Chinese military have?

I have never thought they could pull this off unless their naval forces mature considerably, and this is the most time consuming and expensive military growth project there is, measured in decades. And they are decades behind the US in technical capacity and ability at sea. We are not standing still to wait for them either.

Assuming they do not go Putin-crazy, what of the reality of this invasion becoming technically possible in the next few years?

The problem with Dunkirk was leaving the heavy equipment behind. A reverse Dunkirk without IFVs, Tanks, Trucks, Artillery, SAMs, Beans & Bullets,etc. would invite defeat in detail. Until you can establish air superiority and sea control the straits are problematic for amphibious operations.

What good are hordes of infantry a war against Taiwan?

Well more Amph Invasions are Infantry heavy with support from Naval Fire assets and CAS. With a small number of MBTs/AFVs with the landing forces. A beachhead has to be rapidly established for follow on forces to breakout & exploit. Any large scale Amph Op has to have air & naval superiority or at least parity in either or both. The PRC/CCP knows all this. As I'm sure the study history, etc.

I assume the war would begin with missiles and drones.

Most likely …

What is the reality of getting enough troops on the island to help win and secure it fully.

They will have to rely on numbers. As they have little to no combat experience, with Amph ops or and have not seen real combat since '79 with the Vietnam.

Airborne?

They have Airborne Forces and would most likely be used in a invasion.

Are there Chinese Marines and special forces able to deploy rapidly?

They have both, and one would think these forces are capable of rapid deployment, etc.

What kind of experience does anybody in the Chinese military have?

As I said their last real combat was with Vietnam in '79. But I'm sure they have watched, The Longest Day, A Bridge Too Far, SPR, etc. 🤩

If they can get enough transport and combat vessels ?

If they can have enough aircraft to gain air superiority or parity ?

If enough of their forces make it to Taiwan and even make a successful landing ? It will be very costly.

And much of Taiwan is mountains with a limited number of beaches capable to be exploited for an Amph landing. The mountains would also limit DZs for the Airborne. Plus Taiwan's forces have ADA/AAA assets. That will have to be dealt with.

If they establish a beach head, can they bring on enough follow-on forces to breakout?

Can they resupply a large landing force ?

So again, they have large numbers of troops … But will that be enough ? For all the reasons I mentioned and more. E.g. Taiwan will have home court advantage.

I kind of feel like this topic is done for now unless there is some new development. Better to keep an eye on the Pacific in general and see how well the Allies there begin to focus on a future threat

Are We on the Road to Another Pearl Harbor?

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Armand

No. And…The idea that nobody in the Pentagon or the Navy might have been working on this possibility makes no sense. And then there is our recent realignment with Pacific allies on trade. Assessing roles of the Marine Corps. Electronic protection of capital ships. Biden's first year budget for the military continues the pattern of his predecessor. The big increases are in procurement.

Japan and Australia are also part of this picture and planning. They have considerable naval expertise as well. The question is "Is China on the Road to Another Ukraine?" No to this also. They will try to undermine the Pacific allies and nibble at territory.

The insistence of the Congress on keeping ships the Navy wants to retire so we can have a better total number of vessels vs China is foolish, imo. .

No Pearl Harbor … that is quite a stretch, IMO.

The big increases are in procurement.

Yes, new tech will give you an edge.

Japan and Australia are also part of this picture and planning. They have considerable naval expertise as well.

AFAIK both have been upgrading their Navys. Japan has really become a more formidable. They will be key allies in that region if the PRC/CCP gets a bit aggressive.

Of course, the US POTUS and Xi at a recent conference made it clear. That Climate change is the priority worldwide. And the US will give billions to some nations to help them go Green. So, who needs a Navy, Air Force, Army, etc.?

Are We on the Road to Another Pearl Harbor?

China wouldn't just hit Guam (our current Pearl Harbor). Nope, their military has criticized WW2 Japanese strategy *not* for attacking Pearl Harbor and the Phillipines, but for leaving the Continental US alone. The Chinese take-away is that by not attacking US oil refineries and naval bases on the West Coast that they allowed the US to reconstitute itself. So their solution is full-spectrum warfare stopping short of WMDs.

1. Conventional weapons attacks on Guam and other targets
2. Cyberwarfare and sabotage to collapse the US telecom grid, the energy grid, and our transportation grid and our refining capacity
3. Financial warfare to try and collapse the US economy
4. Mass disinformation campaigns via pet Politicians, Media and Tools like Tik-Tok to loudly blame the US, declare innocence in the cyber attacks and try to convince the US it's a fait accomplie -- China has risen, the US has fallen, accept the new status quo

General Jack Keene has said that he believes China is much more likely to just impose an air and naval blockade of Taiwan in order to subdue it. I agree with that assessment, though still don't rule out a full-on invasion by the Chi-Coms either, to show the world China is a dominant world power.

They have the forces now to be able to do this today, and they've actually been practicing a lot of it in their military exercises around Taiwan for the last few years.

Basically, if they decide to impose a blockade, they'll be daring the USA and others to start a shooting war to break it, which I doubt our current guy in charge will do, despite assertions stated on a number of occasions by our current, CiC (who is instantly and repeatedly contradicted by his White House staff over and over again – that doesn't bode well for making anyone believe anything he has to say).

As I've mentioned earlier, China can easily get their personnel to the islands by ship, boat, aircraft, and helo. Once they establish air dominance, they'll be able to continue to provide support for them as well.

China's military has the numbers, and the proximity, so will win out – it will only be a matter of time and losses. President for Life Xi no longer needs to worry about the losses, since if anything, higher numbers will just help to inflate his standing with his countrymen, showing he is willing to do what it takes to "reunite China", and to defeat those "evil separatists" backed by the evil and decadent Western powers. Win-Win for him.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, it seems with current tech, modern war MAY be changing – infantry, supported by aircraft, drones, and artillery are defeating tank and armored IFV heavy forces on a regular basis. I imagine the Chinese are paying attention to that, and may try to use this tactic against the Taiwanese, if they decide to land troops on the islands.

China also apparently has a lot of ballistic missiles that it can use to bombard Taiwan and the forces arrayed for defense, making life very difficult for those defending the small country.

I wonder how long Taiwan could hold out against a total land and sea blockade?

I'll bet it will just be a few short months, if that long.

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One source mentioned that if invaded, Taiwan would only last for about a month, unsupported.

Here's a take that says the USA alone can break a blockade of the island nation by China:

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Of course, that requires a commitment to actually do that, AND also fails to ask the REAL question, which is, how long can the blockade be broken for, especially since China, as we all know, plays the long game in their strategic moves?

I suspect we could break the blockade for a while, assuming the proper political backbone to do that, but naval ops far from home, and very close to an enemy's shores cannot be sustained forever (even without that kicking off to a shooting war), especially in today's environment of a rapidly diminishing strength of the US Navy's operational forces, and the dangerous draining of our Strategic Petroleum Reserves for political gain.

IMO….

We live with mass disinformation campaigns all the time now from our own media and politics, and according to our intelligence agencies, from China and Russia as well. We seem to always have an election and a lot of blaming going on.

China nearly crashed their own economy this year. They are not the superpower they want to be yet. Nukes are the great leveler in all of this. But if you stop short of WMDs, China has some work to do. Hordes alone cannot get it done. And…they are beginning to run short of military age people as their one-child policy catches up with them.

As much as 40% of training in the Chinese military is believed to be political indoctrination related. If "woke" is taking us down….

The top military leaders are political appointees of Xi, who has no military experience himself. They could be great or maybe they are more like the Putin gang.

Cyber warfare on power grids may be a factor, but we are not defenseless and unprepared ourselves. The Chinese conventional weapons, unless you are talking missiles and drones, are not that impressive yet on paper. Not that we want to learn more the hard way.

JS Kaga is smaller than her WW2 predecessor of the same name from the Pearl Harbor attack at 24,000 tons. Izumo as well. These are converted ships which will operate limited numbers of helicopters and jets. But they are a major step for Japan and will allow them
to stage air ops from various locations outside the homeland. Backed up by our battlegroups and the new subs coming along, any overt attack on the US or Japan by Chinese conventional forces would be very risky.

As I have said before, the Chinese oil supply line is the longest of any big power and almost impossible to defend. The Russia pipeline to China will take a while to get going without oil industry tech consultants, maybe.

We are not underestimating them and are responding. We also learned lessons at Pearl. We were there.

General Jack Keene has said that he believes China is much more likely to just impose an air and naval blockade of Taiwan in order to subdue it.

Yes, I heard him say that too … he is pretty much on target very often.

As much as 40% of training in the Chinese military is believed to be political indoctrination related. If "woke" is taking us down….

Yes I had heard the this as well. The PRC/CCP leadership has to keep their minions/pawns well indoctrinated, in line, etc.. If in fact, they do spend 40% of their time on that instead of warfighting that may be a weakness. Of course, they may be more than willing to fight to the death as well ?

Seems some at the lower levels in the Army, etc. are not taking "woke" too seriously, etc. The troops at Sqd, Plt, & Co. levels know the deal. They are at the pointy end of the spear after all.

We also learned lessons at Pearl. We were there.

That should be true at most levels. Hopefully those at the very top are aware of those lessons. They should review the movie Tora, Tora, Tora, etc.

They are welcome to fight to the death as long as they don't take any of us with them! As Patton more or less said.

Blockades can be tricky. As in how far would they go to enforce one? I don't think they are quite ready to pull this off. They have some good ships that are suitable for this work. Small to medium frigates, maybe the missile corvettes. You don't want to waste the larger destroyers on this. But if a formal blockade is an act of war, it may also be a recognition of Taiwan as a separate nation. It also takes a long time to get decisive results.I think they will not go this route. They will harass, try to pick up some modest Pacific territory for bases, bide their time.

Regardless … the PRC/CCP wants to become the most powerful military and economic entity on the planet. Plus, like religious inspired terrorists, they see the rest of the world as inferior to them. Like islamic terrorists see us as infidels. How do you say infidels in Chinese ?

However, if the PRC/CCP eventually has the large number of ships and aircraft to blockade Taiwan. It will only have a chance if the US, etc. don't get involved. But all know that involvement might trigger WWIII ? At least in the PTO ?

Intel, etc. IIRC, point to by 2027 the PRC/CCP may have the assets to make a move on Taiwan. And may have a chance of success ? Will it be an invasion or blockade ? Either way it may be costly.

The only advantage of making a move sooner is the US is busy in the Ukraine. And regardless of what US voters say. Xi/CCP see the USA's top leaders are weak, confused, left leaning ideologues, feckless, etc. Xi & Putin Iran, etc. saw the US A'stan debacle among other poor decisions, etc. Saw they may have the better cards to play.

E.g. Just recently at a conference, Xi & the US POTUS among other were talking about climate change. Xi is playing along with the US leadership's obsession with going Green. While Xi continues the use of coal burning plants, etc. Building their military to replace the US as the most powerful force on the planet. I guess all those Windmills the US is talking about building could act as anti-aircraft weapons ?

Bottom line, IMO Xi/the PRC/CCP don't care how many they lose to air pollution or in a war. They have the numbers to take the losses.

The Sneaky Way China Could Win a War Against America

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Armand

China is as vulnerable to a naval blockade as Taiwan is. Most of China's strategic resources must be imported, and those imports must sail through chokepoints like the Straights of Malacca, or unescorted over vast ocean distances.

1. China imports 75% of its energy needs – oil, gas & coal
2. China imports 80% of its iron ore
3. China imports 75% of its fertilizer needs
4. China imports 8-10% of its food needs

They are furthermore really a coastal maritime nation. Despite having huge areas of land, the interior is nor well developed. Most of its manufacturing, trade and population centers are on the coasts and on major rivers with ocean access. This means its transportation is developed around this reality, from roads and rail to coastal shipping.

Here's an interesting article describing how a US strategy akin to US WW2 strategy against Japan, choking off its flow of resources through submarine blockades and air interdiction, would collapse China's ability to project power.

To Defeat China in Battle, America Should Study World War II

The U.S. Pacific strategy was to intercept and deny energy resources

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Excellent.Thanks SB.

SB +1 … the PRC/CCP may not the monster we thought as with Russia. However, they both still have nukes …

China deploys JL-3 ballistic missiles on its Type 094 submarines

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China introduces its LD-3000 Close-In Weapon Station similar to US C-RAM Centurion Phalanx

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Armand

They are putting a priority on warfighting … Some other nations should make note.

Their Covid lockdown mess is not stopping Covid there, it's hurting their economy, factories not productive, signs of protests. The infection rate is now the highest since the start of the pandemic, more evidence that lockdowns are not effective in many cases. They are not gonna make a lot of stuff at this rate.

They are prepping for a fight in appears. Regardless of the situation of their nation. Which is failing at this point. But COVID won't kill all of them. And some will still go to work to build weapons of war, etc. Again, they have the numbers …

China's Naval Fighter Jet, J-15 ‘Flying Shark,' Is Finally Powered By Indigenous Turbofan Engines

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Armand

How Do We Beat China In The Gray Zone?

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Armand

Interesting…thanks Armand. The US has begun the philosophical shift to the Pacific in restoring our economic partnerships. We have strong partners in Australia and Japan. We are looking at new configurations for the Marine Corps and our naval deployments. We have shown more commitment to the region than the previous administration did, more stability in our diplomacy. We have also done this In Europe, this helps build the working cooperative alignments to isolate authoritarian regimes.

But the Middle East has been a mess where the US has shown very little of these qualities. We don't get it there, no surprise, no western power has. The cultural and religious landscape alone….Gray area is too mild a term for the region. Ask the Palestinians, thrown under the bus to help set up some business deals between a few countries there. Contradictions and differences bound up in a tangled web.

As I read all the articles and comments, I can't believe the Chinese will actually attempt this after watching the Russian fiasco in Ukraine. They might be better off invading Russia…

They are having a lot of problems in the PRC. Including rioting in the streets. Along with a failing economy, etc. But it seems they continue to build up their forces. After watching the Russian fiasco, I tend to think the PRC might not be much better. But I'm sure they watch everything that is going on in the Ukraine. But yes if the PRC wants a piece of Russia, now might be the time to do it.

It might be a very revealing scenario, more than either side wants. And yet another situation where nukes might deploy. What will NK think?

But China may think it's a better opportunity than grabbing little slices of its other neighbors here and there.

The domestic issues in China are not yet a threat to Xi. But all is not well there…

No mention my friend…

Armand

Ukrainian source, but it looks like China may dabbling in support of Russia's invasion. Though I'm not sure a few plane loads of miscellaneous personal equipment are going to dig Putin out of the hole he's in.
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SB +1 … the PRC/CCP may not the monster we thought as with Russia. However, they both still have nukes …

Indeed, which is why, in my weighty opinion as an armchair diplomat [sarc], being vocal about any kind of "regime change" talk is dangerous. It may be your hope, or even your goal, but it's stupid to back a ruthless person with nukes like Putin or Xi into a corner with counterproductive public rhetoric.

This also means no troops on the ground into any country with nukes -- which is why they *have* nukes in the first place. So Ukraine needs to be told the limits of support -- which I think means the port of Sevastopol will remain in Russian hands, and Ukraine must not cross into Russian territory. Yes, I know that doesn't seem fair – and it's not, 'cause, nukes.

And in case of conflict with China it would be M.A.D. to put US/allied troops on the ground in China.

They also need to be warned about M.A.D. triggers so they know, or really, the self-interested oligarchs and powers that support Putin and Xi, need to know the lines of behavior they cannot cross -- and then if push comes to shove there's a greater likelihood that *they* will remove Putin or Xi at that point, before the nuclear threshold is crossed. But they have too *believe* in firm, unwavering US resolve on this matter or M.A.D. will not work as a deterrence. Does our current POTUS give off that kinda vibe???

Ukrainian source, but it looks like China may dabbling in support of Russia's invasion.

Ahhh, here's the Big Game now isn't it? Just as the US/West are using Ukraine to exhaust Russia, now China is using Russia to exhaust the US/West. Their first step was facilitating sales of compatible artillery shells and other munitions from North Korea to Russia, and I'm sure China will also be selling the same kind of supplies to Russia as well.

So who will go bankrupt first???

Well global free trade is perhaps a sort of potential economic MAD. If Xi decided to go all in for Putin it's pretty certain that sanctions would follow. While China has a huge chunk of the global manufacturing arguably the West can afford to pay more, have less choice and there are other places on the planet with appropriate investment would happily take up any resulting manufacturing slack…. China simply doesn't have a sufficiently developed internal market to suffer a massive loss of manufacturing exports. So far it seems pretty clear that Chinese companies much prefer Euros/Dollars to Rubles. This is the same calculus Xi faces if he wants to do something stupid over Tiawan!

But I'd say again a few surreptitious planeloads of kit is hardly going to allow help Russia to exhaust the West. Public crowdfunding for drones for Ukraine has probably raised more money.

I've seen at least one commentator suggest that another reason why China isn't keen to hand over large quantities of heavy equipment to Russia is that it isn't that good – over a clip of some supposedly modernised Chinese MBT (I forget which one) with a barrel wobbling enough to suggest its stabilisation wasn't particularly great.

And in case of conflict with China it would be M.A.D. to put US/allied troops on the ground in China.

Even our current leadership is not that out of touch. Or ?

China supporting Russia in the Ukraine may be a good idea if only with military equipment for Putin. No PRC Troops on the ground of course. That could be a real escalation …

And if we had non-Manchurian Candidate leaders, they could use the mass protests sweeping China as leverage to put stress and pressure on the Xi regime. Mass protests you say? Yes, in addition to recent mass bank account seizures, a lot of people are furious and fed up with the strict lockdown policies that recently led to 40 people burning to death in their apartment building because authorities had sealed the doors shut, and they couldn't escape the fire.

Huh, the protests are spreading and Xi rolled tanks into the city of Xuzhou to try and restore order.

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Strangely -- a big development regarding America's top strategic rival and it's not being covered by the NYT, Washington Post, etc. Oh -- and Apple has been caught suspending Air Drop service in China (and only in China) so people can't share images of the protests and bypass CCP controls.

Quite the turn about from the 1984 ad that Apple ran, back in, well, 1984, in which it defended free speech against totalitarianism with a woman hurling a hammer to smash down a Big Brother presence. Now Apple IS Big Brother…

Seems like a good thing with many in the population of Russia, China and Iran rioting in the streets. For various reasons. But yes, many are and will die in those streets. And in the end the tyrants that lead those nations will probably still be in power.