"China to Invade Taiwan this Year?" Topic

Apparently a US admiral believes that it is possible that Xi may decide to invade Taiwan as early as this year, though I suspect 2023 is probably far more realistic.

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China has apparently done everything they've said they'd do, more quickly than expected on a number of issues, and now, with Xi being apparently inducted as a President for life, there seems to be little to nothing to stop him.

Blinken believes that China's threat to retake Taiwan needs to be taken seriously.

I imagine they will definitely do that before the next President starts his term, given current vectors.

The earliest I see it happening is during Chinese New Year celebrations…

Yawn.

Some preview here….

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Armand

There was a reason why we by-passed Formosa in WWII. Add 78 years of further preparation and does the term "lemmings" paint a picture for you? I predict that if they tried, it would be Russia part 2.

A better plan is to take back lost territory from WWII in SW Russia, from Russia, while they are busy fighting a costly war in the Ukraine. This would make Xi seem to fulfil his short term needs politically and continue to apply diplomatic means to get Taiwan to willingly come back under their sphere of influence. (Not really feasible for the foreseeable future.) If China really considers Taiwan part of China, how would it go over in the world if they were seen as killing their own countrymen? This isn't the Ming dynasty days.

I have a stake in this with family there. Best thing they can do is live life as they know it. They remain in my prayers, though.

Is Chinese President Xi's Appointment Of New Generals To The Central Military Commission An Indication That Beijing Is Advancing Plans To invade Taiwan?

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Armand

We've seen how good Russia did with a somewhat experienced army that just had to drive across an imaginary line on a map.
I'm looking forward to seeing a completely inexperienced army recreate D-Day.

Armand, Or does it mean that their appointment is to ensure they are in lock step (in loyalty) to Xi? Does it mean Taiwan or Russia to be invaded? Lower hanging fruit is easier to pluck that those at the top.

"It would be Russia part 2."

I was thinking the same thing.

"Inexperienced army recreate D-Day."

And D-Day there was no axis navy or air assets worth mentioning. If they make it across the Taiwan strait, I would be surprised. If they make it off the beach, I would be even more surprised. If he thinks he is going to get the FABs intact and dominate the microchip market, they will be destroyed long before he gets his hands on them.

I hope he does not think we are bogged down or distracted by Russia and this is the perfect time, it won't get any better than this.

It is too bad Xi and Putin can only see writing themselves into the history books with military conquest, they will both remembered as imbeciles.

I agree that a conventional invasion across a hundred mile gap is incredibly difficult, if not impossible to pull off. On the other hand, if Xi wants Taiwan, I think he'll be sneakier than that. The Chinese already have infiltrator agents in Taiwan and had been working toward convincing the old party to be more and more pro Beijing. Populist Elections and a new government halted that plan, but what is to stop them from increasing the infiltration program and using them to start a coup with willing collaborators waiting in the wings to take over and ‘restore order?'

Hard to stop an invasion if you control the military and can order them to stand down while mainland ‘peace keepers' arrive by air to help ensure a ‘peaceful' reintegration.

That's the frightening takeover I'd expect.

I'm not sure that they have the sealift capacity to actually pulll this off just yet. Not to mention that U.S. satellites would see it coming a long way off as all the ro-ro ships and other assets would need to assemble in several ports.

Also, if I was the Chinese I would be a bit concerned about troop and weapon performance, especially after the Russian experiences in Ukraine. Much of the Chinese arsenal are copies of or based upon stolen/licensed technology from Russia, so trying a complex amphibious and airborne operation in the face of Western weapons might not go as they planned. I would look for China to start a flare up along the Indian border or with Vietnam, just to test what they have.

Its the last thousand yards on the beach which is China's big issue. Once they can breach and travel distance inland, under artillery bombardments all the way, the invasion by sheer numbers could succeed. But the cost…millions of dead and world against China for decades.

1. Prep the military for several months with training in shooting and other non-invasion stuff.
2. Gather every floating hull, big to the smallest, in the region under various non-invasion reasons….maintenance, repairs in yards, fleet training, militia sampans brigade. Tens of thousands of floating hulls all with a motor. This action will tip off Taiwan government invasion is coming soon.
3. Army boards these "ships in name only" stuffed with food and some equipment, quickly in day or two, and sails towards invasion beaches… the entire coast line of western Taiwan. Some ships just empty "flag waving targets" to confuse defenders and take a high tech missile or two for the cause.
4. Forget anchoring… just beach all ships on the coast beaches. Army struggles ashore under hail of Taiwanese WWI trench line positions gunfire.
5. Horde tactics on grand scale. Only so many bullets find actual bodies. Keeps going inland and resupply from Taiwan food stores. I wouldn't be surprised that a large portion of the foremost invasion troops are young females to save the young male population ratio in China.
After a few days the plague invasion tactic will capture or fail….
6. As for Chinese navy…. sunk by western missiles or torps. Survivors lobe missiles from close protected home waters or port.
7. Chinese airforce… shot down by thousands of man-pack AA systems on first days. They limit themselves over island till the plague army has overrun most key areas.

As for the chip factories. just smoking ruins. World economy in rubble for several years. But the allied naval blockage (sub attack boats mostly) of all Chinese ship movement severely damages the entire Chinese economy from off shore, Mass starvation since no food shipments arrive is the future. No iron ore , no oil, no western tech. If I was Russia, be nervous since all that "open" land north of China looks ripe for the taking. Lots of minerals there…oil, iron ore and other minerals, land to grow some short season crops. China has little to fear… except Russian nukes.

Yes… Invasion of Taiwan will be a major event in world history. What history occurs after a year may never be written down if China goes north.

It could happen … but it would cost the PRC/CCP for the many reasons posted here and elsewhere. So I'm going with not this year.

+1 emckinney

Nothing has changed in China. The new generals are just more politicos.From Xi on down, not necessarily military experience in the top commanders. Political loyalty first.
They see Putin getting his butt kicked. They have no operations experience in mounting a very difficult operation, their navy has a lot of ships, we have way more experience and carrier battle groups, subs. Their oil supply line across the Indian Ocean would be cut easily. Almost no combat experience in the army. Pilots untested, survival rate might be dicey. Taiwan might be bristling with defense weapons by the time they get ready.
Rabbit, you could have it right. Hordes. The one thing we don't think about – ultra not modern. But I don't think they will do this for at least several years.

"If China really considers Taiwan part of China, how would it go over in the world if they were seen as killing their own countrymen?".

Tianenmen Square, the Uighurs, and Hong Kong – nothing was really done by the West over these incidents/actions, AND there have been many deaths in the first two cases. Unsure if/how many over Hong Kong, but a number have been jailed and/or disappeared.

I believe China will either blockade, and/or invade Taiwan before the next US President is seated in January of 2025.

I believe China will either blockade, and/or invade Taiwan before the next US President is seated in January of 2025.

Xi knows of the weak feckless current US leadership. Just turn on the daily news feeds.

Plus, the US is currently involved in Europe. Don't think the US can currently fight a two-front war, so to speak … No one does …

All that may be enough for Xi to go for it.

Don't think the US can currently fight a two-front war, so to speak … No one does …

Yeah, we've never done that before, eh? Besides, all we're doing in Europe is spending money. Plenty of US forces to go around.

".. all we're doing in Europe is spending money."

Well, not exactly. We're sending over a lot of gear and munitions too.A significant % of our ATGMs and MPADs have gone to Ukraine along with a nice % of our MLRS/HIMARS rockets, and soon so of the missiles too. We've also sent other AD weapons, Shrikes, and other materials too.

The cupboard isn't empty, but it isn't as deep as it was either. Plus we have moved significant forces to Europe. Yeah, the bulk of our forces are uncommitted, true, but we have about a division worth of troops in Europe (2nd ACR, 173rd Airborne, Devil Brigade, BRO (my old outfit!)).

All told this is a pretty significant deployment of troops and materials. You do have a point though- we still have the large majority of our forces uncommitted. But is it plenty? I'm not so sure. Is it enough? Maybe. <shrugs>

"he'll be sneakier than that."

"Trojan horse" container ships slipped into Taiwanese ports. Could fit thousands of troops on each of them, light vehicles for speed, land at night, drop topside containers to reveal heavy weapons. After the initial attack, unleash the mainland forces. The invader just needs to cause enough shock to cause the gov't to collapse…

China should continue to watch Ukraine and Russia and at just the right moment, come in on the side of Ukraine and attack Russia. They want back old territory and China and Russia have fought before many times, even during the Cold War.

No one outside of Russia would care. It might provide the Chinese with experience, might make Chinese look like the Good Guys helping Ukraine with actual invasion of Russia in the East.

Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan should sign a mutual defense treaty and announce they have nuclear weapons. Even if they don't have them.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Xi has two set opposition liberals and conservatives. The liberal want a more open and democratic society. The conservatives are pondering whether Xi is still a Communist.

Yeah, we've never done that before, eh?

Hopefully we will never have to do that again …

Well, not exactly. We're sending over a lot of gear and munitions too.A significant % of our ATGMs and MPADs have gone to Ukraine along with a nice % of our MLRS/HIMARS rockets, and soon so of the missiles too. We've also sent other AD weapons, Shrikes, and other materials too.

We are in too deep to not continue our/NATO support. Putin & the Russians have done something we thought was over after WWII in Europe. He/they are living in another Century. We really can't let this aggression and war crimes go … can we ? The Ukrainians are little by little gaining back their lost territory. Unless Putin uses WMDs, that will most likely continue … i.e. the Ukraine will "win" back their freedom from Russia, again. Regardless, Putin will claim victory if for no other reason than to save face.

The conservatives are pondering whether Xi is still a Communist.

My take … he still is and will be. And he is far from being alone.

It won't happen anytime soon. The distance from the nearest chinese port to Taiwan is just over 100 miles. Similar to the D-Day landings. We used over 6000 ships including 4000 landing ships and 1000 transports. 150,000 men landed opposed by 50,000 germans entrenched along the beaches. China only has about 35 landing ships, enough for 20,000 men and 200 tanks or 9,000 men and 500 tanks. They'll be walking into the guns of 250,000 entrenched Taiwanese supported by numerous landmines and dug in artillery sighted along the only beaches the chinese can use to land. Gathering enough sampans and junks to make the crossing would take months if not years giving ample warning. The achilles heel for chinese operations is the same thing plaguing the Russian war in Ukraine, logistics. They can't support a landing over that distance with Taiwanese subs patrolling. Add to that the distance involved means subsequent waves would have an almost 24 hour turn around time.
China needs more time to build more ships to have more than a passing hope of doing more than expending Taiwanese bullets on their men.

A good summary. I did not know there were so few landing ships.

Much of the scary doom China stuff appears on one particular US news network, outspoken politically and active in elections. I would like to see some objective reporting on the state of the Chinese military, to the extent anyone knows, compared to other nations, and not just from the Heritage Foundation. Not just numbers and lobbying for contractors. What are the assessments of capabilities?

I would have thought that China's best strategy would be ensure their sphere of influence utterly surrounds Taiwan to the point they almost have to rollover. They are clearly buying influence in the Pacific. Assuming they are trying to acquire the islands industry intact and the territory with a minimum of international backlash. Sea lift capacity aside even their fleet is probably a decade away from being a real challenge. An attempt at some kind of enforced blockade would probably result in the Chinese navy being a piñata for a couple of multi-national supported US task forces.

Setting aside any opposition from Taiwan and allied Surface or Air Forces, that would be a target rich environment for SSN and SSGN unrestricted submarine warfare. Almost as likely to succeed as Operation Sealion against the RN of WW2. Who knows in 15 or 20 years. Not to say they wouldn't try, but to do so at present is very likely to be a huge tactical and strategic blunder not worth the price in blood or treasure. Let's hope deterrence continues to work.

It won't happen anytime soon.

Agree and your post is very good outlining the situation. I hope Xi/the CCP knows all that. I'm sure they do; they are not fools. As I noted, the only reasons to attack now is US weak leadership and our involvement in the Ukraine.

However, as we see they don't have the assets or experience to execute one of the most complex operations a military can do. A forced entry amphib invasion.

China could easily blockade Taiwan now, AND they have enough of a civilian merchant fleet to conduct a massive reverse-Dunkirk now, without any problems at all.

100 miles is pretty distant compared to D-Day, but of course, with more modern aircraft and vessels I doubt that is really a problem.

Granted, they have very few dedicated amphibious landing vessels, but they've practiced even using car ferries in lieu of those recently, and it worked. Of course, they've got lots of very large transport vessels and tankers which could be pressed into service as assault helo carriers too.

I believe Taiwan can be taken if/when China decides to do so at any point in the near future.

I hope I'm wrong, but doubt it.

Xi has bought and paid for his allies in the criminal family, so little will be done on that front to oppose him due to that.

I hope you are wrong, too. It sounds a little ramshackle with all these boats. How does anyone get ashore. They don't have a lot of landing space. Sitting ducks. Who will command this militia navy, and run the landing ops, very likely under fire? It would be a nightmare to coordinate a fleet of civilian vessels in an organized assault on this scale, would it not?

Meanwhile, the Allies cut off their oil imports from hundreds of miles away.

U.S. To Deploy Nuclear-Capable B-52 Bombers To Australia's North

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Armand

I'm sure Xi and the CCP are happy about.

"Mess with the Bull you get the horns !"

Yes, it's just a bit of saber rattling, posturing, etc. But that is how the "game" is played.

The Chinese leadership are capitalist they been so for along while and that's their problem both domestically and aboard.

"Much of the scary doom China stuff appears on one particular US news network"

I wonder which one?

"Much of the scary doom China stuff appears on one particular US news network"

The opinions of some RET GENs are worth listening too … 'nuff said …

Real Clear World & Real Clear Defense have a steady stream of excellent articles on the conflict between the USA & China.

If China declares war, these ham radio enthusiasts could be crucial

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Armand

US sends B-52s to Oz …

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And those BUFFs carry interesting ASMs:

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Plus, a whole bunch of other stuff that makes Big Bangs !!!!

Yes Legion and I still watch and like Jack Keane a lot even though at the end of August he mapped out the Russians pushing on to win soon, just before the Ukrainian offensive. That's the only time I have ever seen him miss the boat. He has a lot of expertise.
I don't think we know very much about NK either. A good idea would be to report some facts as news to the extent we can access any info.

Most were surprised by the complete total incompetence of the Russian military.

Last winter, general consensus was that Russia would not invade Ukraine.

Yes, Heedless, we mostly did not envision such an historic blunder. And found we had been giving the Russians and Putin too much credit for their military prowess.
I hope China does not go the same way. But the lesson is staring them in the face.

Yes Legion and I still watch and like Jack Keane

Yes he is very good and very accurate. But like many he didn't think Putin would cross the border.

Most were surprised by the complete total incompetence of the Russian military.

Not just the West. But included Putin and many of his GENs.

we mostly did not envision such an historic blunder

A major blunder like has not been seen in very a long time. But of course, the US withdrawal from A'stan was pretty bad. And is/will be considered a major blunder from historians. Along with Putin's War. Two major ups very close together by two of the major [former] "Superpowers".

IMO had A'stan not been such a debacle, showing the USA's top leaderships' weakness, incompetence, lack of priorities, etc., etc. Putin may have not crossed into the Ukraine.

And we would never have discovered that the Russians were posers, Legion.

Afghanistan was a botched evacuation to end a war, Ukraine has involved wide scale major military formations, air, naval forces, massed artillery, missile barrages. Ukraine has a professional army, is a sovereign nation with a stable democratic government, united against its foe. Russia has been the most critical danger to the US for 70 + years. Finally, it has been brought to the brink, a critical moment In history. Nuclear war threats. The war has has huge impact on world trade, energy and food supplies.
All due respect, the bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan is not the same scale. And I would say we are the superpower, to the extent that we maintain military and economic superiority over any potential opponent.

Not just BUFFs, but more SSNs to Guam:

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I served on the USS Frank Cable sub-tenderback in Guam back in the day…

The pieces are moving on the Indo-Pacific chessboard.

And we would never have discovered that the Russians were posers, Legion."

I think that there must of been intelligence organizations that had a clue.

Some Western intel may have had some idea. But they missed the fall of the USSR. And the intel on 9/11. There may have been some in the basement of the CIA, etc. reporting how poor quality the Russian Forces are, or that this UBL guy is going to be trouble. And the rest is history …

IDK there was intel about 9/11 the upper levels of intelligence bureaucracy were on interested. Add the US arms industry to the mix….

Yes, it has been reported, "the guys in the basement's" assessments were ignored. Which is not the first time that happen in the US or other nations.

As far as the US Arms industry, had nothing to do with 9/11.