"Russia: Partial Mobilization" Topic

I've seen Russian tiktok videos of men trying to avoid the draft officer. In one the draftee was hiding in a refrigerator. I think the news is out about how bad things are going in Ukraine.

hiding in a refrigerator

Now, the looting of white goods like washing machines, refrigators and the like makes sense at last.
Clever…

'I don't want to die': Russians flee abroad after Putin's call-up

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'Please come back, Papa': Russian child sobs uncontrollably as her conscript father boards a bus to join Ukraine invasion amid claims Putin has 'paved the way to mobilise 1MILLION men with secret order'

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Tearful scenes and protest as mobilization gets underway in Russia

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Armand

Looks like Putin and his cronies may be in for a hard time not only in Ukraine. But in the streets of Moscow …

Implementation also seems to be a s**t show. So much for the myth dictatorial competence. At least the decadent West gets inquires and commissions that sometime get things fixed after the fact. One media report seemed to suggest that men can't leave Russia on foot but it's still legal to cycle out?

It's also been reported that the authorities have been giving draft papers to people arrested for protesting against the war and the draft. The Russian army already appears unable to maintain discipline and morale, the officer corp has been trashed, and they want to add objectors on mass?

"only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription"

Men are reservists if they have:
1. served as conscripts
2. had a medical or family reason not to serve as conscripts
3. dodged the draft
4. studied at a university that has a military faculty

So just about everyone!
Ref: Sergey Radchenko

…

Viktor Bugreev, 32, he is an IT specialist for Sberbank in Moscow, he received a summons yesterday: "I have never served, I have never done military service, I do not have a military specialty, I do not have a military department. I'll go, what to do. Or a criminal case."

Dasha Afanasieva, Sep 22, 2022.

…

The video of the draft dodger in a fridge. Fake or real?

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

From what I'm seeing reported tonight, a lot of Russian men affected by this callup are fleeing in droves.

Not sure how accurate this is, but time will tell.

Apparently there is some unrest in various Russian cities which is a bit larger than usual. Reportedly as many as 1,300 arrested in St. Petersburg (Leningrad IIRC) alone.

Not sure what the West will do if Putin uses chemical weapons, or even a few tactical nukes.

I hope he doesn't, but NOTHING was done when he and Assad used them in Syria (chemical weapons), so……

Even if he uses more than a few, will the USA and/or NATO and the EU REALLY want to go to war with Russia to protect Ukraine, especially after the nuclear genie is unleashed???

My guess is NO.

There will be a lot of harsh bleating and hand-wringing, but NO real action even if this occurs.

NATO will only act if an attack occurs on their soil, and/or the winds shift and radiation/chemicals drift over their soil. Even then, they still might not do anything at all, especially against a man prove to be willing to use nukes to further his aims, AND with the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world.

The only REAL "leader" willing to actually stand up to Putin in an effective way is Zelensky.

It won't be open war (unless Putin decides to declare it). But it guarantees the Ukrainians will continue to receive military and economic aid, while continuing the sanctions on Russia.

Russia will get their men, or close to it, because they will keep generating lists of names and fill their quotas regardless. The consequences of this will been known over time.

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Perhaps this is closer to the truth?

H'mm Putin offered to withdraw. That would be something of a very, very uncharacteristic turnaround. And then it wanders into partisan politics fantasy because it's all the other guy's fault. Actually, if you wanted regime change having Putin march out of Ukraine entirely would probably seal his own fate!

But I think it's likely Putin's doing (or trying to do) something underhanded with the mobilisation process. There is some suggestion that even the 'regions' rural Russia where his popularity is probably real aren't happy. Though how the heck he thinks that this mobilisation is going to save the situation I don't know. Assuming they can be got there in a couple of weeks or so mud season II is coming. And much later you are deploying into the teeth of early Winter. The Russian didn't seem to have adequate kit for their regular army at the beginning of the year so how are three hundred thousand plus reservists going to fair? Let alone more than that. The carrion birds may be getting fat this winter without Ukraine even needing to fire much!

@Thresher01

Yeah, because the whole world is jonesing for nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia.

It's fortunate that cooler heads are deciding strategy.

ISW report for 23rd September – reports that, surprise, the Russian mobilization infrastructure is performing as effectively and efficiently as the Russian pro-war faction would like. Who knew? (FYI – that's a rhetorical question)

ISW 23 Sep Report

But…as the ISW report indicates these issues are anecdotal and may not be systemic or, if systemic, might be fixed.

I didn't buy into the partisan fantasy politics. It does seem Russia is not recalling 300,000 prior service veterans. It appears to be pure quota filling and qualifications, age, fitness etc.. were thrown out the window. Putin is going to flood the Ukraine with cannon fodder.

That should have read "…the Russian mobilization infrastructure is NOT performing as effectively and efficiently…" Doh!

I'm sure I heard the media talking to some Russian guy who they were trying to remobilize who was in an exempt profession and had never done military service in the first place….

That ISW sounds pretty damning. Still if the Russian's want to further cripple their war effort by calling up people working in arms manufacturing, I'm sure Ukraine won't mind!

Putin is going to flood the Ukraine with cannon fodder.

That certainly appears to be his plan. Not a very good one as we know. This move could make many turn on him and his cronies. Riots/protest are already occurring. If Putin was removed from the board, I'm pretty sure the war would be over. Regardless, if alive he will still have to pay for his war crimes. Even only if in absentia.

This relates to the early anti-war protests, but, with the current anti-mobilization protests, it has relevance.

BBC report on some young women who were detained and tortured finding the identity of their torturer.

YouTube for BBC report

some young women who were detained and tortured

Guess they just don't do this to Ukrainian women.

these anti mobilization protests are a bit on the small side i think?

Some are protests are bigger than others. Seeing how the police deal with the protesters, it's understandable why most people wouldn't want to actively participate.
The significance is that this is coordinated, open defiance.
Now spreading to the former republics
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Brief description of the Russian mobilization system by Frederick Kagan on the ISW daily update for 25 Sep:

ISW 25 Sep Report – Russian Mobilization

‘Nobody is going to fight:' Man shoots chief Russian military recruiter after his friend gets drafted

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Armand

Protest the war, get raped.

Moscow Times: link

Putins says they were protesting but rioting looting and vandalizing property.