"Russia: Partial Mobilization" Topic

…"We are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all, those who served in the armed forces have a certain military specialty and relevant experience," Putin said…

He also thinks he can hold referendums, declare conquered territory to be part of Russia, and then threaten dire consequences if 'Russia' is attacked.

Fox News: link

won´t matter. Mobilization cannot change what is happening, Russia is losing.

The reservists need equipment, relevant training and need to train as units to be effective. They need competent commanders and a well thought strategy and tactic. they need proper air support.

None of this exists. There is no equipment, what there is is old and decrepit. There are no officers to properly train them.

Russias airfare does not fly over Ukraine any longer.

Morale will be low.

Ukraine is now starting to use units that were mobilized just after war broke out in February. So six months were needed to make those units effective. I doubt Russia will be more effective or faster.

In six months from now the war will be over.

Someone can correct me but reservists are (mostly) conscripts that did 12 months service then got out. The majority are likely to range from unenthusiastic to refusal of service – going on spontaneous extended visits to their babushkas.

The 300,000 reserve Russia is mobilising is a trained reserve from volunteer forces who have recently left full time service.

These are not the 2 million conscript reserves who did their basic service recently.

These reserves will not need 6 months basic training like the conscripted Ukrainian civilians starting from scratch. They will need a few weeks refresher and be ready to fight.

Equipment. I doubt there will be a problem with basic small arms and ammunition given the number of AKs of various models available.

There may be difficulty with complex modern systems.

Ammunition for artillery may be a problem but I suspect they have more stocks than we have left.

Competent officers – good point. I'd have a pretty thorough series of field commissions from the units that took the ground they have and seed them through the reserves.

There may be trouble even feeding and transporting them.

Russia already have problem supplying their current forces with basic equipment. They issue WWII style steel helmets. "fake" plate carriers (does not stop bullets for which it is rated). Field dressings are old and out of date. Boots are not issued. Uniforms issued are old and worn out.

Even their current standing army has problem with even basic equipment. Even "elite" units such as VDV and marine infantry gets old and worn equipment as modern gear is stolen and sold by higher ups instead of being issued.

Weapons issued are old and worn, sometimes faulty and non working.

There are few officers left. As soldiers are not allowed to think and do nothing without orders officers must lead from the front. Leading from the front means many die. They are not rotated but serve until they are either dead or injured.

Many officers are also badly trained. they lack tactical skill and have no thoughts about their men. Men are beasts to be used up. They do not care for their men so morale and trust is non existent.

In short there are no competent officers left. Not even for the forces currently serving in Ukraine. So the pool of officers for new formations is non existent. They have already sent officer cadets to Ukraine as there are no "real" officers left…

Equipping and integrating those troops is going to take time during what is clearly a dynamic phase of the war.

@Gwydion,

"I'd have a pretty thorough series of field commissions from the units that took the ground they have and seed them through the reserves."

There have been a number of analyses of the problem Russia has had with developing adequate leadership skills among its non-commission members (NCM) prior to 24 February. This has led to the requirement in the conflict of officers fulfilling the role of NCM. There's a pretty big question mark whether a "pretty thorough series of field commissions" would yield useful results.

In WWII the Soviet Union had a similar problem. They quickly realized that they needed good a NCM corps but it still took them a good deal of time to develop. After the war they demobilized. Their NCM either became commissioned officers or were let go, so they lost their competent NCM. Post-breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia has tried to regain this capability without much success.

It gets worse as Russia is gutting its force generation capability (e.g., training schools, etc.) for troops to send into combat.

The wise choice for Russia was to recognize this "war" was a mistake, negotiate a peace, learn their lessons, rebuild their army and then try again. Fortunately for Ukraine Russia has rejected that approach.

It is strange that it does not occur to anyone that personnel military units that are currently serving in the Far East, Siberia and other regions will go to the front. And the mobilized will take their place, where coordination and training will take place, and then, after training, they will replenish the front-line units that already have solid combat experience. This is the most logical use case. By the spring of next year, Russia will be fighting with an army that outnumbers the Ukrainian one in terms of personnel.

So far Russia has failed in everything. Nothing had gone to plan. Now Ukraine is giving Russia a severe spanking.

Give me one good reason why Russia would succeed now? Why have they not rotated troops earlier?

Calling up reservists wont help. They are as useless as the (now destroyed) Russian "standing professional" army.

Some troops from far east or Siberia or where ever wont help.

"Solid combat experience" permit me to laugh.

@soledad

"Give me one good reason why Russia would succeed now?"

Tactical nukes, poison gas?

Both weapons (tac nukes and gas) need good up to date intel. Russia does not have the capability to locate targets of enough value and strike it before it moves. Sure they might hit and oblitirate a rifle company but not much more. Nothing that shift the power balance.

Military.com had a similar article. link

As I posted on another thread here :

Yes, would the mobilized Russian Army be any better than what has been seen in Ukraine ?

Do they have the AFVs ?

Do/would they have the trained Infantry, etc. ?

Will they have better leadership ?

Will they have the motivation/morale ?

I'm going to go with No on all those …

It is strange that it does not occur to anyone that personnel military units that are currently serving in the Far East, Siberia and other regions will go to the front. And the mobilized will take their place, where coordination and training will take place, and then, after training, they will replenish the front-line units that already have solid combat experience. This is the most logical use case. By the spring of next year, Russia will be fighting with an army that outnumbers the Ukrainian one in terms of personnel.

Before the war started, the active Russian army had around 280,000 troops. They committed some 180,000 troops to Ukraine. We also have seen reports of how the Russians are getting "creative" in recruiting sufficient men to serve IN Ukraine. The call-up is for 300,000 new troops.

I think people are dismissing the idea that Siberian garrisons will be used to replace losses, because those garrisons have already been stripped of their most useful troops & equipment. Furthermore, since this call-up is for more troops than the Russian peace-time army needed, this would indicate an expansion of the conflict, & an increase in the overall size of the Russian army. At least some of whom will be earmarked for the war in Ukraine.

Damon.

Another possibility is they're deployed into Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea with the intent to create a stalemate and force the Ukrainians to negotiate

I also read today that there has been a four-fold increase of Russians seeking to travel to Visa free countries. So this announcement seems to be very unpopular in Russia.

Damon.

A nuke strike against Ukraine's nuclear power plants would kill many thousands and poison the surrounding countryside. It might also cause the Ukrainians to sue for peace. I don't think Putin would give a rat's ass what the rest of the world would think about it.

I also read today that there has been a four-fold increase of Russians seeking to travel to Visa free countries. So this announcement seems to be very unpopular in Russia.

Which is why it wasn't on the cards from the get-go. Putin's position is at least partly reliant on the degree of political disengagement he has created amongst the Russian population. This feeds into why so much has been done to prevent the 'special military operation' from affecting the population at large. Putin, and the world at large, may be now about to find out just how attached Russian's are to the idea of their 'near abroad'. Bearing in mind Western views are probably overly shaped by shouty Russian fascists sorry ultra-nationalists.

A nuke strike against Ukraine's nuclear power plants would kill many thousands and poison the surrounding countryside. It might also cause the Ukrainians to sue for peace. I don't think Putin would give a rat's ass what the rest of the world would think about it.

I think Putin WILL care if NATO feels compelled to intervene. They have already said that any sort of destruction of the nuclear power plant & a release of radioactive material is an Article 5 event, & would probably directly involve NATO.

Also I cannot imagine Putin is unaware that the deployment of nuclear weapons might trigger a nuclear response from NATO & the US.

Damon.

Putin's resent speech again, blames the US, NATO, etc. for threating Russia, the Ukraine is full of Nazis, etc. Nothing unexpected. And again, mentions WMDs. More for local consumption, I'd think.

I think it is highly unlikely he will use WMDs. As well very, very unlikely the US will. That would change everything … in a very bad way.

Putin's back is to the wall, and he knows it … but I still don't think he'd be foolish enough to use WMDs. I could be wrong. He appears more unstable as time goes on. Let's hope he has an accident.

I also want to add the Russian flight is something I am starting to see more of. I tutor & teach English as a second language, & I am definitely seeing an uptick of Russians learning English, either ones that are already Expats, & those that are looking to emigrate.

Damon.

All they have to do is make it to Mexico and cross the US border ! 😁 Welcome to America comrade !!!!

I read that and immediately started thinking of scenes from Dr. Zhivago. This can't end well for the conscripts.

This is good logistic strategy for Ukraine. No need to go hunting wild muscovites as Napoleon did, Putin himself will transport that cannon fodder under Ukrainian fire.

Russian demographics need to be kept in mind. Here's the wikipedia article on that:

Demographics of Russia

Look at males born from 1992 to 2004 (i.e., now aged 18-30 or prime age for the army). How many men can Russia afford to lose in this cohort without a future population crisis?

This is looking more and more like national suicide due to excessive nationalistic pride (aka hubris).

There's a saying…when you're in a hole stop digging.

Welcome to America comrade !!!!

To late, they are trapped

So, full mobilization in 3,2,1…

Good thing is, they may consider to fight Nazis.
In Russia.
ruZZians that is.
Allthough I doubt, they have the guts.

According to the Strategy Page, the recently leaked Russian Ministry of Finance report indicates they need to 361 billion rubles for the pensions of fallen soldiers, which at 7 million per soldiers = 48,759 dead according to their calculations….and that wouldn't include Wagner, Donbas, etc.

Strategy Page Article

Russian demographics need to be kept in mind.

This well known, especially to them.
It is their final attempt.
And Putin the player tried to win with a bluff.
Now what is left to him, is to go all-in.

By the spring of next year, Russia will be fighting with an army that outnumbers the Ukrainian one in terms of personnel.

Two issues come to mind.
1) If you are talking next spring, the fighting may be in Crimea with the Donbas fully liberated.
2) The Ukrainians have already been fighting with an army that outnumbers them, and winning.

"This is looking more and more like national suicide due to excessive nationalistic pride (aka hubris)."

There are no nationalistic things, Russians are not nationality but nation of destroyed/lost nationalities.
So we can talk only about their nazi pride.

"And Putin the player tried to win with a bluff.
Now what is left to him, is to go all-in."

Some people says that he goes all-out. ;-)

Yes, the russians and their 'lpr'/'dpr' collaborators had many more troops actually in the field that Ukraine in the first weeks of the war and they were still beaten.

Actually, I don't really think that the russian army lacks troop numbers per se, even taking conscripts out of the equation.
What it lacks is high quality infantry who are brave and skilled enough to close with the Ukrainians, and competent officers able to motivate and lead those soldiers. If there's one thing that six months of combat on all fronts has shown, it is that both categories are almost non-existent in the russian army. That absence didn't matter so much when the russians could rely on superior artillery to do all the fighting for them: but now……

Option I: I suspect that if Putin used WMDs the West would not respond with nuclear weapons. It would also depend on how many Putin used, how large, and against what target. A single tactical nuke against Kiev with the intent of killing the government leaders might bring a full embargo and maybe even blockage on Russian trade. Even Communist China would be hard pressed to violate that much.

Option 2: Ten tactical nukes to hit concentrations of the Ukrainian Army along the front lines, would likely bring in the West. Probably cruise missile strikes, against Russian forces near the Ukraine border, NATO aircraft and anti-aircraft and missile defenses. Give Ukraine any conventional weapons they want in any quantity as soon as possible.

Option 3: ICBM MIRV hit all the major cities in Ukraine, massive damage and civilian deaths in the low millions. Likely full on war with NATO.

None of these are a good option for Putin. If these 300,000 new troops don't turn the tide pretty quickly he might want to consider retirement to North Korea, Iran, or Cuba pretty quickly.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Those four regions with russian majorities are holding plebicites to join Russia. The troops being assembled will most likely be used to reinforce those areas if they decide to unify as part of Russia.

So, essentially, any action following that would be seen as a tripwire in attacking Russia itself.

I'm thinking of sending sunflower seeds to the Russian consulate. They could give handfuls to the mobilized individuals to put in their pockets so that something good will come from this failed attempt at expansion. Russia might call it a "Special Military Operation", but lets not quibble, it is war plain and simple. The Ukrainians know that, and the Russians are finding it out now too. If just one NATO country joins in, you think Russia is having a bad time now, just wait.

The Russian 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division has been transferred from Sakhalin Island (where Japan has a territorial claim) to Eastern Ukraine. So if they have sent this unit they would be scraping the bottom of the barrel to find units from Siberia. The 50+ year olds recruited to 'volunteer battalions' would be an obvious choice to take the place of Siberian or other units, but sending them straight to Ukraine has the advantage that their contracts do not allow for refusal.

…

The calculation of KIA is that a total of 361.9 billion rubles has been paid to the families of those who fell, and every family gets 7.4 million, so as of 25 August 2022, the VSRF suffered approx. 50,000 killed in action. Tom Cooper reminds us that some of this will be corrupt payments so a simple division to find the number of KIA is not reliable.

…

Many professional soldiers will not be renewing their contracts when they expire so part of the mobilised will be educated with specialised skills to replace these, a group that is not volunteering to join the RuAF.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Anyone with the means appears to be voting on the limited mobilization with their feet (or wheels).
Flights out of Russia to neutral destinations are sold out and people trying to cross the border into Georgia is causing traffic jams several kilometers long.
Considering how popular Russians are in Georgia, we might be seeing Georgians going for overseas trips.
Another oopsies for Putin.
link (news.com.au)

Yep Putang is all in. Bluffing with a pair of deuces.

The Chinese think it's a great idea stripping forces from the East. If they invade it will be a win win for them. I can see it now "China supports free nations of the world". It fits with there long view!

1 way airline tickets out of Russia are selling like Blinis!

JMcCarroll has made a point that I have been thinking for a while. Communist China can "help" Russia and buy their embargoed oil at a discount. Then Russia can strip their far eastern bases since Sino-Russian tensions are at such a low ebb.

Then China can hold "military exercises" in Siberia. Russia may find themselves retreating to West of the Ural mountains for a change.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

"Reservist Dalnyii, you were due to report 7 weeks ago. Where have you been."

"I wasn't sure if I was being called up. I discovered that my call up notice had come through my letter flap and slid under the bookcase by the door. I reported at once but it turns out I reported to Besmerchka when I should have gone to Besmerchki. I didn't have train fare to get there so I had to hitchhike. Hitchhiking is illegal in the Varysma Oblast, so I spent 2 weeks in jail there. The processing center sent me by bus to the induction center, but the bus broke down and I was stranded for four days. The induction center gave me orders to report to this unit, but when I arrived you had deployed forward. I've been searching for you for days."

"You believe me, don't you?"

"Did I miss anything." ;》

Some people says that he goes all-out

Those people are on to something.
Right now, all the 'good' people of Russia want out by invading Finland and else.
They just disguise it as escape.
In reality it's expansion of the 'Russian World'.
First they scare away their own population, then they take the new territories home to the empire.
It's all part of their 'cunning plan', sir.
:)

Poland and the Baltic states probably knew what's incoming, when they enacted their Visa ban for Russians.

Of course, Ukraine precluded the option of leaving for their young men back in February.

They closed the borders and banned men 18-60 from leaving, so they could conscript them all.

So I'm puzzled how mobilising more of the same, or re-deploying Siberian units will change the fundamentals.

The fundamentals are that Russia's "best" 180,000, "regular", "professionals", with the best equipment and a large measure of surprise attacked in February and were first stopped cold and then thrown back in rout.

How will the newbies, reservists or Siberians be better trained? Better equipped? Better led, with better morale? Than the regulars back in February?! How will that work? How will Russia's logistics, intelligence, planning, tactics etc suddenly improve? How will mothballed T62's work any better than T80s? How will the worn out artillery tubes work better? If the Air Force could not achieve air superiority back in February how will it suddenly do it now? And the Moskva is sunk right, on the bottom of the Black Sea, so how will the Black Sea Fleet suddenly be any more effective? The best and bravest Generals are dead or captured and the same cretins in the Kremlin who came up with the dumb plans in February are still there so how will the planning and leadership be any better? What, was there a second team of smarter leaders sitting hidden "on the bench" somewhere and not used in the initial disaster? But now they'll suddenly appear and change everything? I dont think so.

I just dont see how anything significant really changes? Except the Ukrainians are now much improved, better trained and equipped than they were back in February. And better motivated by the Russian atrocities and slaughtered Ukrainian children. And now flushed with success and full of confidance!

And given how poorly maintained the supposed Russian "front line" equipment fleets proved to be back in February how can Putin now be sure his fleet of nukes will actually work if he does start pressing buttons?

Nsolomon99 totally agree. It Will not help.

Yep … Putin is in the corner; he is trying anything short of WMDs … so far. Any new troops will not be any better quality than the original troops crossing the Ukraine border months ago. Many of whom are dead now.

Do Not Underestimate Russians. Putin may be 'off his box'… but still has the control to create some 'Nationalism' in much of populace.
Russia has a history of recovery from a disastrous situation… even if they do not yet know the full extent of what Putin has led them into.
Mobilised troops sent to East to train…ok not many trainers left, but enough.
'Some' trained troop for West. Not many, but, some.

The way Russians seem to use them, a Refurbed T62 works… (Or Not)… as well as a T80. Arty…worn out… but plenty left… and usable, if potentially defective ammo available… for Guns… maybe not rockets/Missiles… but no bets that they are not working on it.

Air… probably High Level or long range capability left.
Black Sea Fleet… severely depleted… but new ships 'supposedly' nearing completion…. but that does not mean that they will work or be crewed for combat task.

This could drag on for another year… unless some Russians pull the plug.

Lots of stories how "any male " between (approx) age if 55-20 is rounded up and sent away. So random men are taken to be soldiers.

I do not think they will fight especially hard… morale must be really rock bottom.

Some are taken from cities just an hour drive Moscow.

Maybe Cuprum2 will join? He seems to support the war?

The realities of Mobilization:
youtu.be/ayA9A6tW2oo

youtu.be/uknfJpTIVgQ

Even if they mobilized right now … it will take time to train, move them to the front, etc., etc.

News said some Russian civilians are rioting in the streets. They don't want this war. Or being drafted either, so to speak. Putin does not remember the Anti-War Riots in the US, which were actually Anti-Draft riots, during the USA's/ROK's/SEATO's war in Southeast Asia not so long ago.

Reports are the Russian rioters were arrested and who knows where they went.