"what are ukraine's chances if russia mobilizes?" Topic

ukraine is doing ok at the moment counteroffensive going well etc. but putin is fighting with a limited force so how would ukraine fare if putin manages some how to mobilize the full russian army ?

Even if Putin mobilizes, he would have an infantry force… not a mechanized infantry force, not an armor force. And no morale to speak of.

RuSSia do not have:
- enough equipment, both personal and heavy for bigger mass army
- enough training capability to retrain reservists or recruits (they do not know where recruits really are, Serdyukov-Shoigu reforms destroyed Soviet mobilizing system, instructors are already killed)
- logistics capability to feed and support such army
- determination of many nations living in this Prison Of Nation as Pilsudski named Russia
- political stability to survive resistance of wealthy Muscovites and defiant Sybiraks
- manpower to keep up both economy AND mass army
- money for such army.

Mobilisation will kill RuSSia, economically and demografically.

Putin committed a sizeable portion of the standing Russian army to the initial assault, including many of its' "premier" units. There's no way to really know how degraded those units have become over 7 months of fighting, but I think we can safely deem them no longer "fresh."

To be sure Russia has units which have not yet been committed, but its unlikely that they are superior to what's been thrown in so far. The T14s have probably been held in reserve against a NATO confrontation.

Full mobilization, assuming the Russian populace would comply, would give the Russians a hefty jolt of new manpower, but would require months to organize and deploy, assuming Russia still has equipment to distribute.

We've all heard the speculation the Russia is running out of missiles and that their arty tubes are worn out.

There's no sign the western open fire hydrant of materiel is slowing.

Can the Russian Army remain an effective field force until the mobilization is completed? Doubtful.

Can the mobilization accomplish more than prolonging the agony? Doubtful.

Could the mobilization prolong the agony? Probably.

Can Russia ultimately win? Define win. But really, no.

Clearly, their chances are a lot better if they do than if they keep the current paradigm, especially since the Ukrainians don't really have a top notch military either, so……

Who knows?

I guess we may get to see, but I hope we don't.

Still, not sure Putin will accept his recent, significant losses, so things may get very interesting soon.

"The T14s have probably been held in reserve against a NATO confrontation." I mighty reserve of maybe 30 of them.

Both the Chinese and Korea will not be helping and India is now siding with the West more and more.

Yes, no matter what … the Russians have a marginal at best military. E.g. as Umpapa and HMS pointed out.

……mobilizes his nuclear forces…….

@torokchar

If he does, the west will let Ukraine off the leash. Car bombs in Moscow. Sabotage across the RusFed. Ethnic cleansing in Donbas/Luhansk. Long range missiles in Ukrainian hands.

NATO advising Russian ships at sea that they will be aggressively targeted in the event of an Article V occurrence, unless they opted to intern prior.

DATELINE: Limassol, Cyprus.
The Russian Guided Missile Frigate Gyorgy Nawannasink has docked requesting protection as a non-belligerant.

The related question, that would also be asked, is how would RUSSIA FARE if Putin manages somehow to mobilize the full Russian army?

Yes, would the mobilized Russian Army be any better than what has been seen in Ukraine ?

Do they have the AFVs ?

Do/would they have the trained Infantry, etc. ?

Will they have better leadership ?

Will they have the motivation/morale ?

I'm going to go with No on all those …

If Putin was to call for a general mobilisation it would just be throwing more Russian's under the bus. It might have more effect if Russia was moved to a war footing. As a country its unlikely it will implode economically and having a war time economy would keep it going. Russia probably does have plenty of equipment kicking around though I doubt its in a good state. The only way mobilisation would be effective would be if Putin rebuilt the Russian military from the ground up. It would take too long and be too much of admission that his rule and leadership are a despotic kleptocratic mess.

Putin would have to not only rebuild but completely change the Russian way of thinking and culture. Getting new hardware means nothing if they keep their old mind set and ways of treating people.

"completely change the Russian way of thinking and culture."

Putin has no desire to do this and believes their culture is superior to everyone else just the way it is. The Russian government has not trusted the military since the revolution.

Since they've already soundly beaten and thrown back the regular Russian army I cant see Ukraine having any difficulty with mobilised reservists and conscripts with even lower morale and poorer equipment and logistics – assuming Russia can even get that force in the field inside the next 12 months.

NATO GDP supporting Ukraine = ~$64 trillion
Russia GDP =~$1.3 trillion

If Ukraine wants to fight, and Russia does not use WMD, Ukraine wins.

If russia uses wmd, russia loses in other ways even if they "win" against ukraine.