"Doc's bleak sense of what's coming" Topic

Of course you will poke holes in my analysis: (Have at it!)

There was, e.g., a world system that developed under Pax Brittanica, 1815 to 1914, of European dominance via multinational empires. It worked until it became a bilateral system of two huge alliances, which, when they inevitably clashed, caused the Great War, 1914-1918, whose consequence was the immediate destruction of four empires (Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey) and the follow-up collapse of two more (Great Britain and France).

This was replaced by a Pax Americana (1945 until 1990 or so) which was likewise bilateral (NATO versus Warsaw Pact).

This is now replaced by the relative decline of American power, the rise of China (although its demographic and economic outlook is bleak), the development of an anti-Chinese coalition, etc. We will see Japan rearming soon, though their demographic future is likewise bleak. The world has "minor" rogue states which are capable of and very likely to start wars that can easily become total: North Korea, Iran, Russia, plus a China that may need a foreign war to distract from its serious internal problems. All this while the US allows its military to decay.

The new technologies mean cyber-warfare and drones and who knows what undermines stability, as much so as u-boats and aircraft carriers replaced battleships as decisive weapons.

Old lessons and principles either no longer apply or turn out to have new and surprising applications. 

I fear a world war in our lifetime. The world today reminds me very much of the 1930's, with rising aggressor nations and weak democracies.

Please read mine in relation to this one:
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"Their policy failures and those of leaders abroad seem to have another cause: an overreliance on the prescriptions of supposed experts, from economists to epidemiologists. Their models are formulated based on how the world used to work, or supposedly worked, but are out of line with how the world works now."

Commentary: when in the late 60's there were riots on college campuses and also in inner city slums, observers (rightly) concluded that a society whose most and least privileged were equally rebellious was in serious trouble.

Today we have Europe facing a cold dark winter, burning old forests, and what is supposed to be our most advanced and prosperous state, California, facing blackouts and water shortages. Sri Lanka (on the other end of the scale) faces starvation. The same conclusion may be drawn.

I can see it.

"Today we have Europe facing a cold dark winter". But today everyone (! So including Hungary) agreed to stand together against Russia in supporting Ukraine. The German Kanzler Scholz said in a speech "You do not walk alone", the ECB raised interest yesterday with a giant 0,75%-point to fight inflation and at least France already installed a price ceiling on energy costs. Apart from my own opinion not to see war in my country in my lifetime (but I am 76), I am sure not to see war within the European Union – 28 states – for many years to come. I do see however more terrorist actions and small actions happening in the coming decennia.

When the moon is in the Seventh House
And Jupiter aligns with Mars
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars

This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius
The Age of Aquarius
Aquarius! Aquarius!

Harmony and understanding
Sympathy and trust abounding
No more falsehoods or derisions
Golden living dreams of visions
Mystic crystal revelation
And the minds true liberation

Aquarius, Aquarius

It has been pointed out that the moon is in the Seventh House every day, and that Jupiter aligns with Mars several times a year. But hey, it sounds cool!

Let's be hopeful. Maybe this Ukrainian counteroffensive has shattered the Russian army, Putin falls, pax NATO expands.

Porthos, I too am 76. What are the prospects for winter in Europe?

So will a surging NATO try to reopen the pipeline and get Russian energy? A nuclear-armed Russia?
Meanwhile Iran is making cyber-attacks against Albania, a NATO country, and others.

'Putin falls, pax NATO expands.'

Or an increasingly desperate Putin escalates in an unforeseen and mostly calamitous way.

Ya doc something is coming.

But today everyone (! So including Hungary) agreed to stand together against Russia in supporting Ukraine.

How much of that agreement was heartfelt and how much was avoiding/gaining some condition? There was a nice "not with us, against us" vibe floating around

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Competent militaries with 21st century equipment have become so costly and technology intensive that I no longer believe that any nation state can field a force capable of defeating a comparable 21st century military AND then subduing the populace. I've heard statistics that the Russians, even if they had prevailed against the Ukrainian military, would have needed 4 times as many men to successfully occupy a relatively restive Ukrainian populace. Not likely.

To be sure, countries like China, with huge field forces, can still overrun less sophisticated national armies and occupy their countries (one must admire their restraint in not having a go at Afghanistan. It is their turn, after all), but this looks to be the last generation that they can. China impending population implosion will hobble them. By mid century India and Nigeria will top them in population.

Globalization has changed the face of the planet. We're too interconnected to effectively bash one another anymore. Globalization sent tens of thousands of American jobs overseas, gutting the blue collar middle class. In turn it gave us Walmart and Dollar Tree, which has enabled Americans to access a comparatively comfortable existence for remarkably modest expense.

I marvel when I go into Walmart and can buy a microwave for $45. USD Of course it will go up in about 2 years, but that's another matter.

People can get their cheap Walmart goods, but the cost of everything else is more expensive, from housing, to healthcare, to education. So whether or not globalization has gutted the blue-collar middle class, access to cheap goods has does not do much for the cost of living. Down here in Ecuador, I pay half as much for housing, food, electricity, etc, than I did in the US. Sure the price is at what the market will bear. One thing about this country though, is while there is a growing middle class, there is a distinct lack of McMansions here, like you find in the US. the houses are smaller, but they are made out of CONCRETE & MASONRY. Wood is for furniture…and the very, very poor.

Damon.

doc: the winters in North-West Europe (I live in the Netherlands) have been warmer in the past few years: no or hardly any snow. See here: link Although the text is in Dutch, the grafics aren't (;-)). "Tmax" (red line) = Maximum Temperature, Tgem (green) = Average Temperature and Tmin (blue) = Minimum Temperature. This website (made by someone especially interested in winter) shows data from 1901. Temperature is in Celsius.

Second: there will be no more dealing with Russia in the near future and there also will be (already happening here) created alternatives for energy (we have added solar panels to our house this year).

Striker: politics is not getting what you want, it's about getting what you prefer. The European political leaders are realistic enough to know that the results are the only important parts.

Porthos, what do you make of this?

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"Simply put: Europe's self-inflicted energy crisis is a lot worse than it looks.

European nations are scrambling to backstop consumers from having to pay electricity rates that could increase tenfold or more—if the electricity is available in sufficient quantity at all. What this means is massive government bailouts for energy suppliers. Britain's new prime minister Liz Truss plans to freeze consumer energy costs for two years, at a likely cost to the government of perhaps $200 USD billion, because utilities face bankruptcy if they can't pass along higher fuel costs. The bill for continental Europe, and especially Germany, which may have to shutter even more of its heavy industry, is sure to be much higher—perhaps reaching $2 USD trillion over the coming year."

It could happen.

Clearly, China and even Iran are on the rise (the latter especially with their nuke weapons and ballistic missiles programs which are proceeding unchecked by the USA). Russia is still dangerous, though no longer the conventional threat they once were, but they have nukes still, so……

It will be interesting to see how Europe copes without reliable, affordable energy, and the USA will also be severely weakened by this too, due to domestic energy suicide.

China and India ARE proceeding full bore with expanding their coal-fired plants, and even some European nations are reversing their green-energy goals in the face of severe energy deficits which may kill people this Winter.

"It will be interesting to see how Europe copes without reliable, affordable energy"

Russia was not a reliable source of energy. Treating it so is part of the problem.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Doc: the Homepage of Power Line says: "Power Line is a site that features commentary on the news from a conservative perspective."

I am very suspicious about anyone American who calls himself "conservative" (mind: I wrote "calls himself" instead of "is") because I associate "conservative" with "claims that elections were stolen" and "armed hooligans storm Capitol". We Europeans used to admire the US, but now are sorry for you.

To answer your question: the Netherlands have enough energy saved to keep everybody warm in the coming winter, and we are sure to be able neighbourstates to assist (together with other EU-states) to keep them save too.

Last, but not least: I am not sure to be impressed by any by definition distant American comment, because I find reading European comment in my quality newspaper (NRC, for those who are in the know and interested) easier to believe.

Okay.

"Winter is coming"

Here's another piece from Powerline to sneer at:
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"One of my kids just returned from the GasTech 2022 conference, ironically held in Milan this year. He is an engineer with a LNG shipping/regas firm. It was nothing like he or the execs from his firm had ever seen. Those same "confident" energy ministry staff from Euro governments are privately in a full fledged panic trying to secure reliable supplies.

One key problem is the lack of port delivery facilities for liquid gas product. Not quick to build—if ya ain't got one now, won't for 3-5 years. Normally you solve for this by using FSRU ships that are semi-permanently moored off shore and feed directly to distribution facilities. But there are only 4 dozen of these in the world and most are already contracted to places like Bangladesh. The industry is trying spin up some regas units built on unused exploration platforms—then just tow them into place. The Korean yards that build most of the tankers are fully booked three years out—so hard to rapidly expand the tanker fleets—and a lot of ships are aging out.

In one meeting a Pakistani speaker almost started crying describing the economic dislocation skyrocketing prices are causing. He was in a meeting with the Uniper execs…and as you wrote, they are on the brink of shutting down absent massive cash infusion. Looked like hunted animals. Unless Vlad turns the spigot back on can't see a happy ending. And my understanding with facilities like aluminum smelters is you can't flip them "on/off". Have to run continuously—millions and months to deslag, clean and restart."

That's an interesting point about the high cost of turning some types of production off. I know (from a college chum who worked as a chemical engineer in one) that many of the giant facilities along the Gulf Coast are like that. Sometimes a hurricane means you MUST shut down, but hurricanes are unpredictable and and the cost of shutting down too soon is very high -- as is the cost of doing it too late. So the companies will arrange to evacuate families out when a threat exists, but the workers essential to operation agree to stay until the absolutely last minute and then be flown out. Don't know if Putin is as unpredictable as a hurricane!

To be fair, "we" Americans are also very sorry for you Europeans as well.

Seems we ALL are suffering from very poor "leadership".

Porthos wrote, in part:

" I am very suspicious about anyone American who calls himself "conservative" (mind: I wrote "calls himself" instead of "is") because I associate "conservative" with "claims that elections were stolen" and "armed hooligans storm Capitol". We Europeans used to admire the US, but now are sorry for you."

Gee thanks. Perhaps someday I can return the judgement.

Just FYI I regard myself as fiscally conservative, which
means I care how the US Government spends the the tax
money I pay and socially moderate by which I mean it is
none of my business how a pregnancy is handled by the
person who is pregnant (nor, I hasten to add, should it
be the government's) and who sleeps with whom and in what
way also NOMB – presuming consenting adults.

If you are basing your assertion upon the distorted
picture presented through the lens of the media
perhaps you need a better source of information.

As to the events you reference – the paucity of
leadership in the world – ALL OF IT – is alarming.

Porthos many American share your suspicions, but as Ed points out (and no offense meant toward him) there are all kinds of different conservatives in the US, some of which are interested in seeing Trump and his minions go to jail for 1/6. Just like there are different folks who think of themselves as liberals.

@Porthos

I would say they may be suspicious, because they have learned from the best election Deniers ever. I won't even go into the the "Hanging Chads" election.

Enjoy

Subject: WATCH: 12 Minutes of Democrats Denying Election Results – [your]NEWS


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Some interesting observations folks. As always these were opinions and just that. Many things can happen as the future unfolds. Many things that are not even foreseen that can upset things.