"Wargaming in the Bad Times" Topic
64 Posts
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 20thmaine  | 30 Aug 2022 11:01 a.m. PST |
I know you like to get these things right. |
 etotheipi  | 30 Aug 2022 2:35 p.m. PST |
Umm…the UK is an Island. We don't have a wall between us and France. We do have a 20mile wide (at the narrowest point) stretch of water but I don't think we can take any responsibility for putting it there. Nice Geography lesson. Now, the modern history lesson. There is a thing called the Chunnel. The UK owns the France side of it, near Calais. Due to longstanding relationships (both good and bad), North Africans have a relatively easy time sneaking into France. The opening of the Chunnel resulted in the creation of something called the "Calais Jungle", a place where North Africans who illegally entered France would congregate before walking through the Chunnel to the UK. Under the Copenhagen Accords and the Schengen Agreement, the fist government that identifies people illegally in their country is responsible for the costs of processing and deporting them. As long as the French government didn't notice the people, when they emerged in the UK (actually, once they crossed over to UK soil near Calais), they were the UK's problem. In 2015, the UK built a border wall to help keep them out. Today, seven years later, the crowd includes Asians who have illegally entered France, and the French government has provided riot police to augment the security as the illegals use (mostly encrypted) social media channels to plan how to rush the entrance with hundreds or a couple thousand people in order to overcome the protection. Apparently, almost no one wants to sneak into France from the UK. ;) |
| etotheipi | 30 Aug 2022 3:03 p.m. PST |
6.3 and 1.2 actually. I notice that in your strident desire for accuracy you left the word "about" that immediately preceded the quote from my post and "(depending on where you look)" that immediately followed. Would you like to teach the section in my propaganda class about cherry-picking? You are eminently qualified. You also failed to mention "The reliability of underlying national murder rate data may vary" from the article yo lined to. Reference 14 and 15, cited with that quote provide a top-level overview of how the different statistics the UN reports in the source come from different methods of collection that are not compatible. In my post, I pointed out that different stats come from different bases, so direct detailed comparison requires more than just chucking a couple of numbers around. Same thing your source says. I recommend actually reading the source. This is complex data to collect and analyze. For example, the chart you cite shows 20K homicides total, of which you claim 190K were by guns. Impressive math again. Source for 190K? And even with unsubstantiated numbers, you slipped back into raw numbers, not per capita or per anything relevant. |
| 20thmaine | 30 Aug 2022 3:10 p.m. PST |
I sure hope there isn't a wall in the Channel Tunnel. It'll make it jolly hard for the trains to get through. Most of those who cross from France to England to claim Asylum do so by boat – little inflatable dinghies that are not sea-worthy. The Coast guard, the RN or the RNLI rescue them. Sometimes a few thousand a day in good weather. Most of the people who do this are not African – they tend to be Syrian (it is in Asia) or from Afghanistan (it is also in Asia). |
| 20thmaine | 30 Aug 2022 3:14 p.m. PST |
For example, the chart you cite shows 20K homicides total, of which you claim 190K were by guns. Impressive math again. Source for 190K? That would be a typo – if you look at the first time I typed the number, along with the link from where I obtained the number, you will see that I correctly typed 19,000. You probably knew that really because you have already commented on that post and I'm sure you'd remember doing that. We do have some really small cities though – so that comment still stands. |
| 20thmaine | 30 Aug 2022 3:17 p.m. PST |
you left the word "about" Yes I did, because I was turning your rather inaccurate guess – which had reduced the USA number and inflated the UK number – into the actual numbers. Hence "6.3 and 1.2 actually." |
| 20thmaine | 30 Aug 2022 3:26 p.m. PST |
In 2015, the UK built a border wall to help keep them out. That isn't true – for the same reason pointed out before. It would have to go all the way around the coast (a length of 31,368km just for Great Britain) and it would still be pointless. Because there is an open border between Eire and the UK on the Island of Ireland. No wall allowed. It's quite an important part of the Belfast Agreement. Do you, perhaps, mean a security fence at the Channel Tunnel entrance? Probably not because there has always been a fence there. It's not unusual in any way to put fences around railway access points and docks and things like that. We have fences like that all over the place. Mostly to deter thieves and vandals, but also for Health and Safety reasons (to stop people wandering onto the track). Perhaps you have fences like this in the USA as well? |
| etotheipi | 30 Aug 2022 5:18 p.m. PST |
there has always been a fence there. Nope. They built it later. And enhanced it in 2015 because of the Calais Jungle. If you'd like to meet the people who supervised the construction, I can probably hook you up. I worked with them. Most of the people who do this are not African – they tend to be Syrian (it is in Asia) or from Afghanistan (it is also in Asia). And if you had read my entire post, you would have seen that I said now it is a mix, whereas when the Chunnel was opened, it wasn't. Good cherry picking there, again. |
| etotheipi | 30 Aug 2022 5:39 p.m. PST |
Yes I did, because I was turning your rather inaccurate guess It's not an inaccurate guess, it's an approximation based on the fact that multiple sources have different numbers (like your Time Magazine article and your Wikipedia article), so saying there is the degree of precision you are implying, is ignorance, willful or otherwise. You linked the Wikipedia article with the UNDOC references. Actually read them all, so you can understand that the type of accuracy you are claiming is not appropriate. Also, read your own government stated limitations on their statistics. link Between UNDOC and the UK government, you should start to understand that you certainly can get general ideas of magnitude, but ratio calculations and specificity are not appropriate. Four times larger per capita is about as reasonable accurate as you can get with these types of statistics. You could say five times, as well, and there is no real justification to say one is a better estimate than the other. I'll check to see if someone has done the detailed power analysis of the correlation across the disparate data sets. I doubt it, since it probably results in something like 4 plus or minus 3, which is just a horrible span. The power analysis on similar crime datasets usually includes negative numbers. Does that mean that the data are useless? No. You can get general neighborhoods of magnitude, and cluster analysis can find strong non-parametric groupings. Calculating ratios and calling them precise is … to use a technical term … crap. |
| Arjuna | 30 Aug 2022 11:29 p.m. PST |
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| dapeters | 31 Aug 2022 1:32 p.m. PST |
I thought the last couple years have been very good to those who have business interest in this hobby? |
| 20thmaine | 02 Sep 2022 4:21 a.m. PST |
I'd sort of assumed the same – would be interesting to know if sales went up during the lockdowns. We bought some new boardgames and I got some more figures. But most of the extra painting I did was stuff I'd had for years but had not had the time to paint yet. I also got a much better handle on how big the unpainted pile is – which was quite sobering. |
| etotheipi | 02 Sep 2022 8:20 p.m. PST |
I recently made a Wall of Shame from my unpainted. I didn't used to have any, but I went overseas for work for a while and just kind of dropped the ball. If the ball is planet sized. Other entertainment industries do well in economic downturns. Movies are the classic example. I don't think anyone has a global view of wargaming expenditures (if you could even define that), so that data would probably be limited to anecdotal vignettes. |
| steve dubgworth | 04 Sep 2022 7:09 a.m. PST |
i have not bought many figures for some years as 'she who must be obeyed' says we have no room. i do have many unpainted not yet started or not yet completed which i was given as security for a loan i gave a friend. didnt ask for it as i trusted him but he insisted so i will slowly work through the figures and sell them as he did not make it through covid, cant bring myself to do it yet.. from a business viewpoint, mail order/internet businesses should carry on doing ok for all the reasons mentioned as far as the uk is concerned although with some doubts about energy costs i've seen quotes of 250% increases to 350% for business energy costs over last year.. labour costs may also go up as businesses are short of labour (about 1 million vacancies at the moment) especially in the minimum low pay jobs. these posts were filled by overseas workers but they went home with brexit and the virus and they cant come back as visas require earnings well above the minimum pay they did receive. the real worry is shops selling wargaming stuff they have big overheads and a limited local market to generate income.
high petrol costs will slow down out of area visits and so internet sales may replace the shops. in the uk we dont have the same level of shop/gaming venues as the us has. homelessness is a worry as there may be huge increases of such as they cannot pay rent and utility costs. food banks are busy, you cant just wander in and get food you need to be recommended by an authorised group, doctors, charities ,social services. the use of public buildings has been suggested as a heat refuge but they cant deal with everyone. schools have planned to go to a 4 day week to save energy costs but most will stay open. it is a mess as at the moment we are waiting for a new pm who will have plans but we dont know what they are until tomorrow. some prayers may be in order tonight. |
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