"“No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision" Topic

…a Chinese Assault on Taiwan

"The Mad Scientist Laboratory is excited to feature today's post by returning guest blogger Mr. Ian Sullivan, who converges the power of wargaming with narrative to compellingly imagine the unthinkable — China defeating the US in large scale combat operations! Over the past 30+ years, U.S. battlefield dominance has been sustained by three heretofore unchallenged pillars: 1) We have the best equipped Army in the world; 2) We have the best trained Soldiers and the most dynamic leaders; and 3) Our ability to conduct maneuver warfare is unmatched. But will our battlefield acumen even matter when engaging an adversary who enjoys the advantage of time and space, possesses significant A2/AD and cyber capabilities that can disrupt our homeland and the timely flow of Soldiers and materiel to the fight, and whom has "stolen a leaf from our playbook" and comprehensively modernized their military forces across the DOTMLPF-P capabilities spectrum?

A Taiwan contingency presents an array of challenges to the US Joint Force. The most obvious deals with time and distance. The Taiwan Strait is about 80 miles wide. Although a formidable obstacle to cross, time and distance factors clearly favor China, as the distance between California and Taiwan is over 6,000 miles. Furthermore, although the United States maintains a strong presence in the Indo-Pacific Theater, they clearly would be at a numerical disadvantage if the PLA decided to initiate an invasion. Finally, the PLA's significant Area Denial/Anti-Access (A2/AD) capabilities mean that any effort to move a US force across the Pacific will be contested, possibly from CONUS itself all the way across the Pacific. To understand the challenge we face, it is imperative that we imagine what such a fight would entail…"

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Armand

Too true.

(smile)

Armand

Nothing on the reliance of China on Seaborne Lines of Communications (SLOCs) – they are vulnerable there.

Ponder on,

JAS

Good point…

Armand