"How Long Can The Western Consensus On The Ukraine War Hold?" Topic

Mon dieu!…avec la gravité de cette guerre… allons-nous publier des pamphlets absurdes ?

Armand

Is The CIA Directing Sabotage Attacks Inside Russian Territory?

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Armand

Why would this nature ally need the ciao involvement? To tell them how to light matches?

I think now that as long as the cash and contracts keep flowing to the right people and influencers, the war in Ukraine can go on until there's not a single Ukrainian or Russian left to fight…

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The CIA is still the Ukraine most likely. And in Russia … I'd say there is a good chance.

Germany takes the lead of NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force

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Armand

Every war is beset by war profiteers. Every administration is beset by special interests. We are a capitalist free market system and our branches of government are too vulnerable to special interests on all sides.

But this war is not entirely about that. At the risk of sounding rah-rah, I think that this is very much about standing up to Russian aggression, helping to expose and defeat an enemy we have been prepping to face for many decades. Reagan spent the Soviet Union into the ground. Afghanistan hastened their collapse. But it lived on in Putin's dreams.

Ukraine is paying the price in blood and destruction. It's people have drawn world-wide support and admiration. Putin's blunder is both a tragedy and an opportunity for a safer Europe, which benefits everyone. Europe was rebuilt after WW2. The world is too connected now for isolationism.

There are obscene profits to be made from building military force, and profits to be made from rebuilding. Human nature. The system is amoral, driven by wealth and opportunity.

But if we can neutralize the Putin war machine and stop the menace and aggression, we should stay the course.

But this war is not entirely about that. At the risk of sounding rah-rah, I think that this is very much about standing up to Russian aggression, helping to expose and defeat an enemy we have been prepping to face for many decades. Reagan spent the Soviet Union into the ground. Afghanistan hastened their collapse. But it lived on in Putin's dreams.

As a Cold Warrior generation kid who oriented his early life around combatting the Soviets, I get the need to stand up to Russian aggression. Yes, it's good to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia and to make Russia pay a price for that

But this is not a "normal" war. The US and the West do not face an existential threat from the global Soviet Empire. Russia today is a shaky petro-state, an incompetent regional military power only given global status because it has a large nuclear arsenal that can end human civilization in 30 minutes.

There are obscene profits to be made from building military force, and profits to be made from rebuilding. Human nature. The system is amoral, driven by wealth and opportunity.

And this is a real concern. Think about other conflicts you've experienced or observed during your life -- and there are many. It's usually been desirable goal by the UN and other world bodies to ended them quickly, politicians in the West will leap at the chance to be the "peace maker," and NGOs will march and demonstrate for peace.

Not this time. I don't see any serious peace initiatives, I see instead a lot of chest-beating and escalatory talk accompanied by escalatory spending. Where is the stated practical goal for the US and Europe? Under what conditions can we get a cease-fire in place, and how can that be maintained?

I only hear absolutist talk from our leaders. For example, regime change in Russia is not a practical goal, though you may desire it -- and it's crude and sophomoric diplomacy to state as such because it closes diplomatic windows of opportunity.

But if we can neutralize the Putin war machine and stop the menace and aggression, we should stay the course.

What is staying the course? Regime change in Russia? I mean, that's worked out so well for the world when we pushed for Regime Change in Libya, Syria and Iraq, yes? Now let's do that with Loose Nukes as well??? Does staying the course mean pushing events across the line and seeing tacnukes used in Ukraine? Does staying the course mean then you'll push The Button down and climb into your backyard fallout shelter?

I no longer think that our leaders see this war as a Bad Thing, but rather as an opportunity to chest-beat, posture and spread taxpayer cash around to their friends and allies, and to themselves through shell games. I also think they are so full of themselves that they think they have Putin beaten and "know" what he'll do -- and that he'll never cross the nuclear Rubicon or do something that will upset their plans.

As long as they see this war as a net benefit to them that they can profit from, they'll fight until the last Ukrainian and Russian soldier strangle themselves in the rubble…or until they make a last fatal miscalculation and the mushroom clouds grow above out cities. But, yeah, sure, let's stay the course…

By stay the course, I meant don't pull the plug on US funding. I did not extrapolate out the things you asked or stated. If the Russian forces begin to really collapse, there may be an opening for talks.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying. But I don't really see any of the preening and posturing you see. I am sure there are people in the Pentagon who have enjoyed Russian's conventional forces taking a beating. Overall, I think the US approach has been balanced. Not going along with Zelensky on long range strikes into Russia, for example. And the sanctions have hurt more than just the Russians economically.

So yes, lets stay the course, do not let up the pressure. The goal is to look for opportunities to end it. I have absolutely no doubt that the US leadership is looking for the off ramp, does not want to risk nuclear war. We now have a fully staffed State Department, our intelligence agencies are valued and listened to, there is a semblance of balance in the Congress.

The shadowy profit takers we find in every war, every administration, may not have the policy control you feel you are seeing. Shine a light on them, we need transparency in this continuing era of grifters and back channel baloney.

Well…

Russia To Provide Iran With Dozens Of Advanced Sukhoi Su-35 Fighter Jets ‘In The Near Future'

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Armand

The CIA is still the Ukraine most likely. And in Russia … I'd say there is a good chance.

I'd say that's the understatement of the year …. :-)

B

The US and the West do not face an existential threat from the global Soviet Empire.

The west stands for the 'Rule of Law' if they fail to stand up for it they will lose what moral authority they have. What countries would respect anything they said in the future?
The US and Russia guaranteed Ukrainian security when they gave up their nukes. The Russians broke this agreement, the US is obliged to help otherwise it is the good man who commits evil by standing by and doing nothing. What countries would consider a security guarantee or other treaty by the US as worth the paper it is written on? Would they be better off being a friend to China?

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Yes, the West can't let Putin's imperialism become a standard in 21st century Europe.

KMW from Germany starts production of RCH 155 155mm howitzers for Ukraine

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Ukraine to receive 15 Czech Viktor air defense systems thanks to crowdfunding campaign Gift for Putin

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T-64BM Bulat MBT Main Battle Tank Ukraine Technical Data Fact Sheet

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US Government is considering providing Ukraine with Bradley IFVs armored vehicles

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Ukraine receives Panthera T6 4x4 armored vehicles developed by MSPV based in UAE

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Italy to provide Ukraine €10.00 EUR million of aid including air defense missile systems

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Armand

Give the Ukraine what they need to defeat Russian Imperialism … we have gone too far to stop now. Putin and many Russians are war criminals.

The US Army Has a New Flow Battery. It Could Change Military Power.

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Armand

No, it won't -- it's basically a very large energy storage *complex*, a large fuel cell, not a battery. So far it can store 1 MW for 10 hours. That's all. Oh, and it uses tanks of Polysulfide Bromide (comprised of Sodium Polysulfide and Sodium Bromide) as part of the energy storage process -- sure sounds green and clean to me!!

Sodium Polysulfide:
DANGER! Strongly corrosive to body tissue and moderately toxic by ingestion. May release toxic and flammable hydrogen sulfide gas. Target organs: Eyes, skin, may be absorbed through skin. This material is considered hazardous by the OSHA Hazard Communication Standard (29 CFR 1910.1200).

Sodium Bromide
SECTION 2 — HAZARDS IDENTIFICATION
Hazard class: Acute toxicity, oral and dermal (Category 5). May be harmful if swallowed or in contact with skin (H303+H313).
Hazard class: Serious eye damage or irritation (Category 2B). Causes eye irritation (H320).

So, what is the exposure risk? Does it negate the power source advantage? Safe as gasoline? Nuclear? Coal? Are there emissions issues? Containment hazards? Disposal problems? How much of this stuff would be around?

I don't identify with a green agenda, I just want better tech, fewer hazards than fossil fuel use. I want multiple energy sources and a pragmatic transition to cleaner options with less risk.

I don't see how this is a "military game changer" when it stores a single MW for less than half-a-day via a large vulnerable facility filled with toxic chemicals. That would power Ft. Benning for about 8 hours. Of course, it needs to get that energy from somewhere, yes?

So let's get real about Green Energy – which is shorthand for Wind and Solar, yes? What does the entire supply chain look like for shifting to an EV military?

1. There's not enough cobalt and lithium ore available to support the battery consumption required to do this -- moral questions of "blood batteries" aside (many cobalt mines in Africa use slave labor and child labor). It takes 500,000lbs of ore to produce one EV car battery -- ore that is mined, refined, processed and then used in manufacturing using oil, gas, and coal energy.

2. It would take the world's existing battery factories 400 years to produce just what's needed for existing passenger cars and civilian vehicles. I suppose you could give Lockheed Martin the nod to produce for the military, at what cost?

3. It takes 1000lbs of batteries to temporarily replace 80lbs of gasoline. Not very efficient.

4. In order to charge the batteries you need, at least for military, a steady state power supply. You can't use solar panels, at present you'd need to deploy up to 12 solar panels for 8 hours of full sunlight to charge up an electric Humvee. Seems impractical to force your next Patton or Schwartzkopf to stop their breakthrough attack for a day or so to let the EV AFVs recharge. So you're stuck with old fashioned diesel or NG generators, yes?

Simple questions. I like the idea of being energy efficient and reducing environmental impact of energy production, but highly inefficient and expensive solar and wind does neither. They should just be one of many energy sources we combine to meet our needs. For example, maybe that big 'ol toxic fuel cell would be OK for powering a military base, so fine -- but it's not going to power tanks and AFVs. We're not going to have high performance electric Fifth Gen fighter jets. So we'll still need petrochemical fuels for that, etc.

I read something the other day about hydrogen.
Saying it wasn't going to replace petrol as it's considered too dangerous.
Instead a fair bit of research is going into using it to fuel generators which would in turn be used to recharge batteries.

Thanks!

Armand

Yes, battery powered combat vehicles at this point is not realistic. Can a huge battery move heavy AFVs, like MBTs, IFVs, heavy cargo trucks, etc. ? I'm not buying this with the current tech. And in reality, if only military vehicles were using fossil fuel, they are a small producer of air pollution, etc. There are not that many military vehicles compared to civilian cars, trucks, etc. Which seems to be the way our Gov't wants to go … EVs …

Germany, France, And US Agree To Send Armored Vehicles To Ukraine

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Armand

An interesting development. I've not yet seen any analysis indicating 'why now?'. Also real tanks seem to being talked about now. At a minimum I suppose it tells Putin that the West isn't bored yet and hasn't run out of new systems to send… Interesting that Macron was first out the stalls. I wonder if this is an acknowledgement that he has given up on his attempts to talk rationally with Putin (and in no small part gain international kudos if he was able to help bring him to the table)? Though the whole thing looks a little choreographed.

Yes, the US will send Bradley IFVs. link

And the French sending AMX-10 RC Light Tanks. link

To retake Ukrainian territory from the Russians they will need more AFVs. To go on the offensive … kill and push the Russians out of their nation.

I think the Ukrainian's are already on the offensive – probably in several places. Just because everyone's been looking at the Donbass doesn't mean something isn't happening elsewhere. And I wonder whether the sudden liberalism with equipment is because there is a sense the end is in sight and can be speeded up! Basically the only thing between the Russian army and defeat on the battlefield is a big conscript meat-shield. Its definitely not in the West's interest for this to drag on, given the effect on the global economy, and they must realise that Putin is just trying to grind this out. The three-day cease fire was an interesting one – not totally certain of Orthodox traditions but three days sounds just slightly longer than necessary for a "Christmas truce". Given the reduced amount of territory Russia now controls three days may be enough to disengage and move people around if your prepared.

Yes, they are on limited offensives. But they need more maneuver forces to continue these offensive ops and more … Putin's "Christmas Truce" is a lie. The Ukraine is ignoring it, AFAIK.

Growing Number Of German Soldiers Are Asking Not To Be Sent To War

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Then why join the military? What did German soldiers expect?

Ukraine's About To Get French Scout ‘Tanks'—And A New Way Of Exploiting Gaps In Russian Lines

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Armand

And Germany is sending Marder IFVs as well. With the US Bradleys and French AMX-10s on the way to the Ukraine. Prepping for more and larger offensive ops. Including retaking the Crimea.

U.S. Sending Ukraine Sea Sparrow Missiles in Latest Aid Package

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Meet All The Heavily Armored Western Combat Vehicles Ukraine Is Getting

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Armand

The Bad News and the Good News on Ukraine

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Ukraine war latest: ‘Very difficult' situation in Soledar amid Russian advance in Donetsk Oblast

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Latvian Atlas Dynamics supplies Ukrainian military with futuristic drones, plans to start production in Ukraine

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Armand

Sweden To Reactivate Civil Conscription To Boost Defense

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U.S. To Send Ukraine "Vampire" Counter-Drone Systems By Mid-Year

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Armand

Russia using old Ukrainian weapons sent in goodwill on front line

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Armand

Pakistan sending large quantity of artillery ammunition to Ukraine

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Czech Republic has already supplied Ukraine with 20 T-72EA modernized tanks

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Greece offers Ukraine its Marder tracked armored IFVs donated by Germany

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Sweden confirms the delivery to Ukraine of ARCHER 155mm self-propelled howitzers

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Armand

Challies!!!
Never thought that'd happen. 10 seems kinda token admittedly.

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More good stuff from across the world to help kill Russians and liberate the Ukraine.

How to re-arm NATO for the post-Ukraine future

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Turkey's Erdogan continues to stall on NATO expansion, asking Sweden to hand over "about 130" people

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Armand

Ukraine pushes for tanks as holdout Germany says new minister to decide

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Armand

They need MBTs & IFVs/APCs to go on the offensive to gain ground and kill Russians, as I had and others had said before. They will take losses on the offensive so they will need replacement AFVs, etc. Modern weapons are very deadly, even in 2d rate soldiers' hands.

Top US, Ukraine Military Leaders Meet For The First Time Face To Face In Poland Near The Ukraine Border

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Armand

Allies Fail To Reach Agreement On Sending German-Made Tanks To Ukraine

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Armand

If the US/NATO fails to give the Ukraine what it needs to push Putin off their land. Plus, repair, rearm, refit, their MBTs, IFVs, FA, etc. to be able to defend themselves afterwards. I think it would only embolden Putin if support for Ukraine fades.

And this would like awarding Putin et al for bad behavior. Not to mention the war crimes Putin et al have committed.

"The Bundeswehr is actually naked! We are expected to have a severe shortage of weapons by 2025 due to the energy crisis. It is simply unprofitable for factories to sell weapons at the same prices!…"

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Fractures Are Starting To Emerge In NATO

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Poland will equip one Ukrainian army brigade with more T-72 tanks and BWP-1 IFVs

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Poland intends sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine without German approval

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Denmark donates Ukraine its CAESAR 155mm howitzers in 8x8 configuration

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Estonia to deliver Ukraine with FH-70 155mm and D-30 122mm towed howitzers

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Sweden offers 50 CV90 IFVs and 12 Archer self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine

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Canada announces donation to Ukraine of 200 Roshel Senator 4x4 armored vehicles

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Former Belgian army M109A4BE 155 howitzers purchased by UK are now deployed in Ukraine

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Armand

Sounds like some good news … However, NATO "fracturing" is just what Putin wants to hear.

French President Macron Wants To Spend €400.00 EUR Billion To ‘Transform' France's Forces Through 2030

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German Foreign Minister Says Berlin Will Not Stand In The Way If Poland Decides To Send Leopard 2 Tanks To Ukraine

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Armand

German Tank Manufacturer Says Even If They Get An Order Today To Send Leopard 2 Tanks To Ukraine, Delivery Will Not Be Possible Until 2024

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Armand

That does not bode well for the Ukraine …

Why Ukraine wants more tanks from allies like Germany in the war with Russia

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Armand

Switzerland Moves To Allow Arms Re-Exports To Ukraine

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Israel Rejects US Request For Hawk Missiles Being Sent To Ukraine

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Armand

Ukraine ambassador to France Says 321 Tanks Have Been Promised To Ukraine

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Vladimir Putin still has lots of friends: How Turkey, India and South Africa just gave him a boost

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Armand