"How Long Can The Western Consensus On The Ukraine War Hold?" Topic

@dapeters – sorry, no shooting the messenger for you! The FTX story is all over the place, it's a top business story. Many outlets like CNN are trying to keep the focus on the what of the event itself, and then spinning the "death of crypto" as angle. Other pubs like the FT describe some of the "who" of the event and note the man at the center of the largest financial boondoggle in decades is a top Democrat donor, and others are now bringing in the Ukraine corruption angle.

Sam Bankman-Fried's fall cuts off big source of funds for US Democrats
FTX entrepreneur has emerged as the second-biggest donor to liberal groups after George Soros

link

And in Forbes –

Oops. Sam Bankman-Fried's implosion took down Democrats' second-biggest donor with it as the party gears up to regulate crypto.

link

A few sites, like this short article at Heavy.com are diving into the broader picture of corruption and the political implication. I'll just post the section headers, you can read it all at the link:

Here's what you need to know:
1. FTX Is Under Criminal Investigation After Its Collapse

2. Bankman-Fried Is the Second Largest Democratic Political Donor & Spent Millions of Dollars to Influence the 2022 Midterm Elections

3. Bankman-Fried Recently Visited the Biden White House & Was Involved in Helping Ukraine as It Fought a War Against Russia

4. Bankman-Fried's Net Worth of $16 USD USD Billion Was Erased in a Week's Time

5. Bankman-Fried Tweeted, ‘I Bleeped text** Up'

link

In the context of support for the war in Ukraine, this kind of corruption and waste only hurts Ukraine's chances against Russia. FTX may just be the tip of the iceberg -- how many billions of $$$ that should have gone to help the Ukraininan people with relief aid, and how much $$$ that should have been spent supporting Ukrainian military efforts vanished into a cloud of corruption? And since YOU are also helping pay for this with your tax $$$$ -- don't you want to know how YOUR money is being spent?

This might help clarify, minus the politics.
link

Ukraine Army receives 10 M106 self-propelled mortars and 2 M577 command vehicles from Lithuania

link

United States supplies Ukraine with four Avenger AN/TWQ-1 mobile air defense missile systems

link

United States delivers to Ukraine two NASAMS air defense missile systems

link

US sends surface-to-air Hawk missiles to Ukraine as part of a new military aid

link

France in talks with Ukraine to acquire 6 additional French CAESAR 155mm howitzers

link

Armand

Looks like Russia managed to hit Poland and possibly kill 2 civilians…

link

US Senators Urge President Biden To Send Advanced Grey Eagle Drones To Ukraine

link

Luxembourg sends to Ukraine HUMVEE 4x4 tactical vehicles as part of a military aid

link

Chechen Republic sends armored vehicles in Ukraine to reinforce Russian troops

link

Polish industry & BAE Systems sign MoU to provide M88A2 ARV and AMPV armored vehicles to Poland

link

Ukraine army to receive 8 Oshkosh M1070 tank transport tractors from Germany

link

List of Western naval equipment for Ukraine amid Russian invasion

link

France supplies Ukraine two Crotale NG air defense systems and two LRU rocket launchers

link

Ukraine army uses Romanian-made TAB-71M 8x8 armored personnel carrier

link

New pictures released of Ukrainian Dauntless Sea Ark Patrol Boat

link

Armand

Resupply the Ukraine and let them kick Russia out of their nation. It is the only answer … at least for now …

Are U.S. Arms Stockpiles Reaching A Critical New Low?

link

Armand

Not critical seems to be the answer. Finish the job. Taking advantage of one of the great military blunders in history. If the new Congress pulls the plug they might even save Putin and throw away all the sacrifice and gains.

Are U.S. Arms Stockpiles Reaching A Critical New Low?

Could explain by the Biden admin wants about another $40 USD BILLION in "aid for Ukraine." A nice end run about the procurement system -- send old ammo and vehicles sitting around to Ukraine, then drop billions of $$$ on defense contracts for shiny new ones, eh? Lest we forget that our SecDef was a defense lobbyist before his new gig.

That brings me to this thought – I agree with the goal of foiling Russian ambitions in Ukraine by helping Ukraine defend itself, and in the process exhaust the Russian military. And then what? Do you really think Russia will give up its important naval base in Crimea? No. Putin will give up all his other gains to secure that base. So propping up Ukrainian ambitions there is a non-starter, and I have no doubt that Putin would cross the nuclear threshold and use tacnukes on Ukrainian forces should it look they that base is threatened.

So why are we supporting Ukrainian rhetoric about this? What do WE get out of this? Yes, if our self-interest coincides with Ukrainian self-interest, fine, but we can't go all the way to the point where nukes come free.

At some point there will have to be a negotiated settlement, Ukraine will have to formally accept it lost Crimea and accept the restoration of the areas Russia has occupied. Ukraine will also *not* be accepted into NATO, but it can have a series of bilateral agreements with other nations that mirrors a NATO type commitment. That will give Putin diplomatic air cover to announce mission accomplished. Russia will also *not* pay reparations, I don't see that happening. Overall, Russia comes out the strategic loser.

But one big problem is that the Ukraine War is being used a vast spending tool -- western militaries, especially the US, are sending old equipment and munitions, and then getting defense contracts worth billions of $$$ to replace that old stuff with new stuff. And a lot of foreign aid money being sent to Ukraine is being money-laundered back to Western politicians and special interest groups --as we saw with the FTX cryptocurrency debacle.

So maybe war is too good for business for saner heads to prevail…

War profiteering is always a problem. It does not change the big picture. Putin's invasion is a game changer in many ways and worth the investment. New ammo for the US is not too bad either. We can't complain about not getting enough funding for the military and then complain about getting fresh ammo, IMO. Biden got hammered for putting up Christmas decorations too early. But "getting around the procurement system"by supplying Ukraine while updating US supplies I can live with.

We used to be the "arsenal of democracy". We have the assets to pick up the pace, hire more workers to make more munitions, etc. It's not only good for the Ukraine but good for our economy. Plus, we can't pass up the chance to damage Putin & Russia in a major way. They will cease to be a conventional threat. And proved to not be the force we thought they were. We have to clip Putin's wings …

Exactly! We cannot pass up this chance. Ramp up production, plenty of ammo is a deterrent!!

Putin can't profit territorially from his Imperialist little adventure period. Far too many people looking for the nod that West will let a done deal slide like the spineless decadent liberal democracies we are. An unequal treaty at the end of this is also undesirable – we know where they lead and some of the potential replacements for Putin are Ultra-Nationalists (to use the Russian euphemism), we don't even have to wait for a 'little corporal' to turn up. I'd also make the point that Ukraine has the right to self-determination and that includes reasserting their legitimate borders regardless of what anyone else may think (sure we could cut their aid to force their hand, but I doubt such a move would have unilateral support or indeed public support).

I think we've got off very lightly – financially and in terms of potential casualties. If Ukraine had caved in because the West didn't step-up I think Putin may well have been drinking enough of his own Kool-Aid to do something that would have triggered an article 5 response. And its fair to say that would have got messy real quick and we think the global economic situation is bad now? The Russian army we've seen in Ukraine probably would have stalled even attempting to take the Baltics and then faced with NATO airpower and ground troops? It probably would have evaporated over weeks or days rather than months we've seen in Ukraine. The question what might Putin have considered in a moment of panic?

I'd say the lesson from this (again) and it goes back several decades now is that the West needs the ability to ramp up munitions production on a far quicker response time. There are good reasons for not having loads of stock sitting around but we need to bake in the ability to have a more elastic response to need.

And acting like cheap hoods probably isn't going to have the effect you imagine… Geopolitics is a different game.
link

'Is Washington still our ally?': EU accuses US of PROFITEERING from Ukraine war through sales of guns and gas and threatens trade war

link

Exactly! We cannot pass up this chance. Ramp up production, plenty of ammo is a deterrent!!

Or as was used to be said, "Peace Thru Strength" …

Far too many people looking for the nod that West will let a done deal slide like the spineless decadent liberal democracies we are

Sadly but that may be true. Many were busy downsizing their militaries and spend more $ on social welfare programs and now the latest windmill climate change, etc. Which many talk as if the "the sky is falling" and if it does not stop, the world will end in 10-15 years etc.

Won't make much difference if you don't defend/plan to defend what we have from being destroyed by our enemies. That list remains long ….

There are good reasons for not having loads of stock sitting around but we need to bake in the ability to have a more elastic response to need.

You use up the older ammo first even in training. The we continue to make more.

"Pray for peace, but prepare for war." …

The Daily Mail article is slanted and deliberately misleading IMO. To what end I can't say. No actual statement of outrage from any leader. Several statements not backed up by anything.

My guess is that Europe has been far more impacted by Brexit than anything the US has done.

We have been gouged by energy prices as much as they have. I just spent a month in Europe and did not hear anything like this. The Russians must love this kind of article though.

Update on the ammo situation including NATO.

link

NATO Exhausted stocks…

link

Armand

Multi-year lead-ins just to ramp up basic artillery ammunition manufacturing is potentially disastrous. At that point the size of your military may not matter! What's worse a big army with virtually no ammo or a small one with very little? And as far as I'm aware wars aren't usually pre-booked 5 years in advance!

The Daily Mail article is slanted and deliberately misleading IMO. To what end I can't say. No actual statement of outrage from any leader. Several statements not backed up by anything.

Click bait title, the Mail online can be bad for this, and some unsubstantiated EU bad stuff before rambling on about gas pricing which seems to be the main point of the article. Unattributed sources is always suspicious and the EU parliament is large enough that you can probably find someone who believes something. And trust me if it was clear that the UK was getting done over, they'd go into melt down. In fact, I wonder if it was originally an article about just the gas re-sculpted for the clicks.

I doubt the EU has been that badly harmed by Brexit – its not like the UK took a significant part of the blocs manufacturing or agricultural capacity with it. Only bankers… The gas-issue is probably at least coloured by previous trading relationship problems.

Even when the US/NATO wargamed USSR/WP crossing the IGB, etc. Modern weapons systems could use a lot of ammo. Based on the tempo of combat. In some case if this became an all out "Blitzkrieg". Both sides could rapidly run low on ammo, so even with production increase it may not have been enough ?

Both sides could take high losses in men and material. With possibility the USSR/WP taking more than NATO? With much of their forces being attrited in offensive ops. If all went as NATO planned ? WWIII could only have lasted a few months. Of course, if no nukes were deployed. But Chem and maybe even Bio might be used ?

So, in the Ukraine, we are seeing a high usage of munitions with them going of offensive ops, etc. and pushing the Russians out of their nation.

Lessons Learned ?

Looks like the Ukraine may be a NATO member in the future …

link

Latvia's Top Diplomat Urges Ukraine To Directly Strike Russia

link

NATO Head Jens Stoltenberg Says The Alliance Will Not Back Down In Its Support For Ukraine

YouTube link

link

Armand

I thought they had?

Everything I heard is NATO will support Ukraine. Good … Putin and his GENs/ADMs must get their wings clipped … 🔪

Well, regarding the slightly off topic reference to FTX, it turns out that both US political parties received about an equal amount of money per the National Review and WAPO. Dark money went under the radar to the right. Time for some safeguards? Campaign reform? Better oversight of the aid to Ukraine? I know it's a wartime emergency, but still we need to know.

Some in Congress are thinking about limiting funds to the Ukraine… bad move IMO.

As far as FTX … Some needs to go to jail … I think we know who.

But who will be left? 🤪

Tortorella +1

But who will be left?

Very true … but if you have noticed some in the US Gov't previously and currently are Teflon. Nothing sticks to them. They got and are getting away with crimes that if you or I did them we'd be in jail.

"We the People" … they are above that, the "USA Elites" …

Agreed. We the People have had enough of elites on both sides. Yale has some explaining to do.

But at least Grant finally got his promotion….

They got and are getting away with crimes that if you or I did them we'd be in jail.

Indeed – look at the politically well-connected figure at the core of the FTX scandal. Bankman-Fried is walking free despite perpetrating the largest financial fraud in history!

If you want to have an elite free society first take money out of the equation.

In a Capitalist society you really can't take too much $ out of the equation. Problem is the people we elect/run in many cases not really there for "We the People", but arev narcissist, power hungry and like $ … a lot of it …

Why do so many of those in Congress who have been there for decades are very, very rich ?

Bankman Fried gave to both parties equally. He clearly understood our political system.

Congress is rich because they have the inside track on everything.

Why do so many of those in Congress who have been there for decades are very, very rich ?

Hi L4,
Is that a rhetorical question?

B

Bankman Fried gave to both parties equally. He clearly understood our political system.

Not equally, most went to Democrats – he was the #2 donor behind Soros, and then to select Establishment Republicans like McConnell's crew.

Congress is rich because they have the inside track on everything.

Yep, because they are exempt from Insider Trading laws they rake in the cash. We need to enforce the following for people in Government:

1. Your assets go into a blind trust managed on your behalf while you are serving.

2. All laws apply equally to Congress, including Insider Trading laws.

3. 12 year term limits -- 2 Senate terms or 6 House terms.

4. A ban on lobbying by former Government for at least 3 years after they leave Government.

Is that a rhetorical question?

Yep … and we all have a pretty good idea of who & why, etc. 'nuff said … 😁

most went to Democrats – he was the #2 donor behind Soros

Yes … Overwhelmingly to Dems. Can't Soros be arrested for interfering with elections or something ? Probably not … But I could only hope. He's very old though … so that could work too.

SBmini +2 !

5. Repeal Citizen united.

According to Bankman Fried he deliberately gave the same amount to Repubs, but all dark money. He did not want to be identified as supporting them. He just wanted support from either side when he needed it.

And there are loads of big donors on the other side looking to not pay taxes. I wish more folks could see see both sides of a con. Citizens United put the US up for sale.

Interfering with elections….now we are in dawghouse territory.

5. Repeal Citizen united.

Not enough. Ban *all* PACs and allow only individual, transparent contributions up to some legal threshold of $10 USDK or some other limit. No PACs. no Super PACs. No "Dark Money."

Works for me and I am sorry but making corporation Humans really tell all one need to know about who really rules this country.

I'd also make 4 ten years

I guess the War in Ukraine must be going well for the Ukrainians if Zelensky's wife can afford to go on a €40,000.00 EUR shopping spree in Paris…

French Social Media Erupts as Store Clerk on Avenue Montaigne Reports Zelenskyy's Wife Having €40,000.00 EUR Christmas Shopping Spree in Paris

link

Also not a good look when your story source is a "reliable store clerk". My guess is that Zelensky had a few bucks before this latest gig being President. And 40,000 was only enough for 4 toilet seats for the AirForce in the US at one time.

But still, skipping this trip would have been a good idea, like Cruz to Cancun. Why do leaders do this stuff? It seems so obvious to us less privileged folks.

LOL

Ukraine to receive soon new DANA M2 8x8 152mm howitzers from Czech Republic

link

Slovak Air Force likely to hand over MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine Air Force

link

Armand

No One Would Win a Long War in Ukraine

link

Armand

link