"How Long Can The Western Consensus On The Ukraine War Hold?" Topic

German Defense Minister Vows To Make Germany The "Backbone" Of Europe's Defense

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The US Air Force's B-21 Raider Just Made Its First Flight (Video)

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New Slovakia Government Rejects Military Aid Package For Ukraine

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Pentagon Is Starting To Restrict Flow Of Military Aid To Ukraine

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Americans Don't Want to Fight For Their Country Anymore

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Armand

Regarding "German Defense Minister Vows To Make Germany The "Backbone" Of Europe's Defense" and the rest of the links.

I believe what we are starting to see is a change in the world order.
Us dominance is on the wain mainly due to the current incumbent in the WH, the stark display of hypocrisy and double standards has gone a long way to contributing to the changes taking place.

Us dominance is on the wain mainly due to the current incumbent in the WH, the stark display of hypocrisy and double standards has gone a long way to contributing to the changes taking place.

Sadly that is 100% correct …

EU's Proposal To Spend €20.00 EUR Billion On Lethal Aid For Ukraine Is Facing Push-Back From Some Nations

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NATO Threatens To Blockade Kaliningrad And St. Petersburg In The Event Of War

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Aircraft Carriers From The U.K., Italy, And Spain Are Now Operating Under NATO Command

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Armand

Yeah ! Thats what I'm talking about ! But as we see e.g. seems all the US Carriers, and support warships, USAF assets in the region and even an OHIO class TLAM armed nuke powered sub does not strike fear in Iran's heart. As they know that is a lot of firepower, but they also know the current US leadership won't use it. The Russians know the same. Of course, the US/NATO has to treat Russia a bit different than Iran. And I do laud the US going after some more of Iran's proxies. Outside of Iran. Which means some IRGC may take losses hopefully.

Germany To Double Its Military Aid To Kyiv In 2024

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Armand

Good news ! What about the rest of NATO or even the USA ?

All welcome news….

But I could not disagree more about the change in the world order.

I may have wondered the way the last admin diminished effective working relationships with NATO country leaders and created a high level of WH military and other staff turnover. But even then, the United States military has so institutionalized its high level of performance and professionalism that its standing on the world stage has not changed.The US has been able to withstand various levels of competence at the top over other presidential terms.

But mainly, explain to me which other military power you would like to defend you beyond nukes. We have had this conversation before. Which Axis of Evil nation is stronger than the US? Whose economy is stronger? Explain….
Do you really think our enemies are flourishing while we fade away because of the POTUS?

We have had this discussion before.

Which Axis of Evil nation is stronger than the US? Whose economy is stronger?

The USA still has one of the stronger economies in the world. Even with the waste of $ on very poor priorities, etc.

Do you really think our enemies are flourishing while we fade away because of the POTUS?

Maybe not "flourishing" but again they see the weakness, incompetence, etc. of the top US leaders. Both elected and appointed. And taking advantage of it. But yes, we have discussed this many times.

We have lions lead by rabbits …

Logistics: War Reserves Inadequate

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Murphy's Law: The More Things Change, The More They Don't

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Armand

New Report Says 90% Of Americans Will Die In A Nuclear Attack Worst-Case Scenario

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Armand

New Report Says 90% Of Americans Will Die In A Nuclear Attack Worst-Case Scenario

I'd think it would higher than 90%. Most Americans would be more than useless in any sort of emergency. Has been my experience …

Me … ? I'm too old and crippled, I'll just die … ☠👻

Is The World At War?

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Armand

Migrant Trouble at EU Borders Blamed on Russia

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How Russian Troops Are Threatening EU Expansion – Analysis

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Armand

Germany Announces A New Military Aid Package for Ukraine Worth 1.3 Billion Euros

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US Defence Chief Austin Announces $100 USDm Military Aid Package For Ukraine

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Maneuver Warfare Is Not Dead, But It Must Evolve

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Armand

Maneuver Warfare Is Not Dead, But It Must Evolve

Unbelievable … this is the same train of thought as tanks and helicopters obsolete. Yes new weapons make it to the battlefield, e.g. drones … Tactics must evolve, like when tanks and aircraft were introduced on the WWI battlefield.

If there is any doubt about combined arms maneuver warfare just look at what the IDF is doing vs Hamas …

End of maneuver warfare ? What could possibly replace it ?

When tech evolves so does tactics …

Exactly…every tech improvement brings tactical change and then counter change. You can not afford to draw conclusions that reduce flexibility.

The development of modern warships from 1860 to 1940 brought incredible tech developments in gunnery, armor, speed, ammo, just an endless procession. The battleship race was the nuclear arms race of it day. Bigger guns brought more armor, which required more displacement and bigger guns. An endless cycle. Turrets replaced central batteries. Ships moved in crazy intricate formations, until guns and armor grew massive and made ramming obsolete. Line ahead became the standard. Torpedoes meant new formations and torpedo boat destroyers. Then submarines arrived to deliver torpedoes, bringing major changes to surface tactics. Then aircraft, then the carriers made the battleships obsolete.

Throughout all of this there were endless debates and arguments about almost everything, very similar to this one. Change was rapid. France rarely completed a warship before it was obsolete in the late 19th century.

It never stands still, there are no permanent solutions. Infantry is always needed to follow up and secure objectives, support armor, do close-up recon, etc. there are no robotics you want to have ultimate control over anything. Infantry will always assess and react with human understanding. I don't foresee anytime soon when that would not be critical to warfare. But I am a complete amateur…

Royal Navy Nuclear-Missile Sub Accidentally Dove to "Danger Zone". Was Moments Away From Implosion

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U.S. Army Says It Is Rethinking How Much Artillery It Will Need For A Potential Large-Scale Future Fight

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Congressional Report Says U.S. Cluster Bombs Are Failing "10% to 30%" Of The Time In Ukraine

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Armand

Infantry is always needed to follow up and secure objectives, support armor, do close-up recon, etc. there are no robotics you want to have ultimate control over anything. Infantry will always assess and react with human understanding.

Agreed … however China and Russia may not see it that same. We have to take that into consideration as well.

I don't foresee anytime soon when that would not be critical to warfare. But I am a complete amateur…

Regardless you are not a complete amateur, like many here who have a good working knowledge of military ops, etc.

And as we see, the IDF is using combined arms, AI, etc. to take the battle to Hamas. With taking low causalities verses Hamas who have most likely suffered 2000+ since 07 Oct with the IDF counterattacks, etc.

Infantry is always needed to follow up and secure objectives, support armor, do close-up recon, etc. there are no robotics you want to have ultimate control over anything. Infantry will always assess and react with human understanding.

Agreed … however China and Russia may not see it that same. We have to take that into consideration as well.

I don't foresee anytime soon when that would not be critical to warfare. But I am a complete amateur…

Regardless you are not a complete amateur, like many here who have a good working knowledge of military ops, etc.

And as we see, the IDF is using combined arms, AI, etc. to take the battle to Hamas. With taking low causalities verses Hamas who have most likely suffered 2000+ since 07 Oct with the IDF counterattacks, etc.

The Next Frontier for Warfighters Might Be Implants in Their Brains. Is the Pentagon Ready for the Consequences?

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Armand

Finland Steps Up Border Closings In Dispute With Russia Over Migrants

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DarkStar: Manned "Mach 6" Stealthy Hypersonic Fighter Jet by 2025?

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Trench warfare tips: What US troops need to know from Ukraine

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Armand

Is the Javelin Missile Still Killing Russian Tanks in Ukraine?

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Germany Strengthens Ukraine's Air Defense with Additional Patriot Missile System

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Finland awaits arrival of XA-300 APC following deliveries to Ukraine

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US delivers more M142 HIMARS rocket/missile launchers to Ukraine

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Germany to deliver four Iris-T air defense systems to Ukraine in a €1.30 EUR Bn aid package

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Armand

Is The 'Right' Rising And Reshaping Europe?

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Ukrainian Politician Who Led Kiev's Peace Delegation To Istanbul During Peace Talks With Russia Admits The War Could Have Ended In March Of 2022

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Armand

As I have said before, IF the USA ceases supporting Ukraine. It will be at our own peril. And in turn Putin will claim a "win". Xi is waiting to see if this will happen … he may be emboldened to cause some trouble with Taiwan …

The West Has Lost The Artillery Shell Race In Ukraine

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Armand

As I have said, the US leadership has the wrong priorities … These 155 rounds, etc. should be a #1 priorities. We are in 2 de facto wars. The US needs to quit wasting $ on too many things that will not help support the wars against Russia and islamic terrorist. The GWoT is not over …

NATO Secretary General Urges NATO Allies To 'Stay The Course' On Ukraine

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Is Turkey Violating Russian Sanctions?

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Logistics: France Mobilizes Industry for War

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Armand

NATO worries about ‘hybrid attack' with migrants

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Armand

Well we have a similar problem with the gov't sanctioned open borders. Even though over 160 on the terrorist watch have been captured. But how many were not, i.e. "got-ways" …Plus many from "Special Countries" e.g. those that are known for having islamic terrorists/jihadis in the population.

All a terrorist has to do is steal or rent a truck and run over US civilians at e.g. a Christmas Street Fair, parade, etc.

News Flash … Open un-controlled borders is a very bad idea …

Does anyone else wonder why open borders seem to be a problem both in the us and western europe over the last 20/15 years? If you were one of those conspiratorial types you could be forgiven for thinking its by design.

forgiven for thinking its by design.

I'm pretty sure, conspiracy theories notwithstanding, in the US it was by design. By a very vocal woke, etc. minority. In the past 3+ years, ask CBP, ICE, etc. before that they reported it was at an all-time low, in the 4 years previous. That is what those and other LEOs, etc. whose states are along the Southern border. I've heard it too many times from those that are there reported in the media. The long lines of illegal aliens look like Moa's Long March.

8 million + illegal aliens just don't happen … The open Southern Border is dictated by the US Fed Gov't. In violation of a number of laws. Just ask CBP, ICE, etc.

And the illegal aliens just keep coming. Costing the US taxpayer one way or another. There is no place to house many of them, they require food, medical support, etc., etc. "Everything is Not free in America." …

White House Warns Congress It Is ‘Out Of Money And Nearly Out Of Time' To Aid Ukraine

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Armand

We need a Congress that can do this. Throwing away all we have invested, all the NATO has done, and worst of all, letting Putin win after so much sacrifice. Shameful…

Poland prepares military response to militarization of Kaliningrad enclave

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Armand

Tort +1

The blame game has started.

The Fat Lady is clearing her thought.

I don't see no fat lady …

Regardless, IF the US/NATO, etc. allows Putin to "win" in any form. By not properly supporting Ukraine it will only embolden him, Xi, Un, islamic terrorists, etc.

We need a Congress that can do this. Throwing away all we have invested, all the NATO has done, and worst of all, letting Putin win after so much sacrifice. Shameful

Shameful? More shameful that there's been a manic drive to fling money and resources at the war without much oversight allowing untold billions to be siphoned off, while propagandizing and chest beating about "in it to win it" and 'total victory' and 'holding Putin accountable for war crimes' -- and if you questioned any part of this the propaganda machine would attack you as a "Putin Puppet: and other such stupidity.

Asking questions like, -- what's the end goal? What does real victory look like? How can we practically end this massively destructive, draining and deadly war -- why are we keeping it going? I mean, barely two months after the Oct 7 atrocity by Hamas the SAME people who want to fight to the last Ukrainian are pushing for a peace in the Gaza-Israel War. What's the post-War situation going to look like -- what will be the security arrangements or post-war aid? And say, if we remove Putin somehow -- could there be a civil war in ICBM-armed Russia, and how dangerous is that? I recall that same people in charge of the Ukraine-Russia War STARTED the NATO-Libya War and toppled Khadaffi for "humanitarian" reasons (not Total-Elf-BP oil contracts, oh no!) causing a massively bloody civil war, mass refugee flows and instability. Oh, and which also propelled NATO from being a defensive alliance into an offensive alliance, giving fuel to Russian fears about NATO. I mean, what the hell was that war all about except actual imperialism and making a grab for oil?!?

And the same people who did that assure us they have a handle on the war with Russia?

And how do we pull Russia away from its alliance with China, which WE facilitated by incessant propagandizing and refusing to help end the fighting rationally? I mean, is anyone concerned that the actions of our leaders have helped Xi build a powerful Chinese Axis with all the resources and population for a global conquest war fighting capacity??

All this despite the reality ALWAYS being that Ukraine is not going to beat Russia militarily. That our leadership been allowed to define "win" in terms of total defeat of Russia, which was never realistic. A "win" has always been some sort of settled peace deal that ends the war on terms nobody is really happy with.

And it's truly Shameful that any rational leadership has to have known this – and did it anyways.

Regardless, IF the US/NATO, etc. allows Putin to "win" in any form. By not properly supporting Ukraine it will only embolden him, Xi, Un, islamic terrorists, etc.

Sunk cost fallacy. And what has emboldened Islamic terrorists has nothing to do with the Ukraine War, rather the manic drive by Team Biden to normalize relations with Iran, remove their proxies like the Houthi from terrorism lists, remove Iranian leaders from terrorism lists, send the billions and billions of dollars, and the be passive in the face of some 100 attacks on Us troops and ships in the Middle East.

And a word on winning. Winning can look like different things for different situations -- does anyone doubt that Israel won the 1948 Arab-Israeli War? They victory was defeating Arab attempts to conquer them, and they did. They didn't march through the streets of Damascus or storm Aman -- and they even lost the West Bank to invading Jordanian forces. But they won the war, they prevented their enemy from meeting their war aims even though they lost ground. But if we hold to this simplistic total war game thinking, Israel lost because they didn't force the Arab states to collapse and they lost ground.

Biden says he may send US soldiers to fight Russia in Ukraine. Not just no, but FRUCK NO!

President Joe Biden on Wednesday warned that American troops could have to fight Russian troops if Congress prevents further and military aid being sent to Ukraine.

He demanded that lawmakers approve his request for tens of billions in military and economic assistance.

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SBminisguy + 10

As they say around these parts.

Yes, no way in HELL should the US or any other NATO ally send troops to the Ukrainian. No need to start WWIII. Just keep sending them support.

Sunk cost fallacy. And what has emboldened Islamic terrorists has nothing to do with the Ukraine War, rather the manic drive by Team Biden to normalize relations with Iran, remove their proxies like the Houthi from terrorism lists, remove Iranian leaders from terrorism lists, send the billions and billions of dollars, and the be passive in the face of some 100 attacks on Us troops and ships in the Middle East.

I can agree on much of what you posted. And as I and others have said repeatedly … The US needs real leadership, leadership that currently is not being provided by the WH/DC, etc.

And a word on winning. Winning can look like different things for different situations -

Yes, I know that. E.g. I have studied and war gamed all of the Arab-Israeli Wars. etc. However, "Winning" in the Ukraine may too come in different end games.

1) The Ukraine pushes the Russians off all of their occupied lands.

2) Peace is brokered, and Putin gets to keep all the terrain the Russians have occupied.

Sadly, at this time, I believe #2 may be the most likely outcome … However, with #2 Putin will claim "victory". And Ukraine will have to live with Russia in that occupied territory. Which they can in the future use as jumping off points to invade the Ukraine for the 3d time. I wouldn't call that a Ukrainian "win" …

Who would ?

But if we hold to this simplistic total war game thinking, Israel lost because they didn't force the Arab states to collapse and they lost ground.

Yes I understand that … And that was never Israel's goal. Their goal their win, their victory conditions was to defend Israel from invading Arab forces. They never planned on marching on Arab capitals, etc. Just defend Israel.

Which in some cases was to occupy some Arab territories, e.g. the Golan Heights. For its strategic location that gave the Syrians an advantage. For attacking Israeli civilians, etc.

2) Peace is brokered, and Putin gets to keep all the terrain the Russians have occupied.

Sadly, at this time, I believe #2 may be the most likely outcome … However, with #2 Putin will claim "victory". And Ukraine will have to live with Russia in that occupied territory. Which they can in the future use as jumping off points to invade the Ukraine for the 3d time. I wouldn't call that a Ukrainian "win" …

Who would ?

Something like this was *always* going to be the end point of this war. Despite the US alone shoveling a QUARTER TRILLION $$$ at Ukraine, "winning" was always going to look like Ukraine survives without being annexed by Russia, and some kind of land-swap for peace deal.

Yes I understand that … And that was never Israel's goal. Their goal their win, their victory conditions was to defend Israel from invading Arab forces. They never planned on marching on Arab capitals, etc. Just defend Israel.

That was the original goal re: Ukraine, yes? Then the US and NATO shifted the goal posts to mean Ukraine gets all of its territory back, Russia is defeated in humiliation and the Putin regime collapses. Really?? That was never realistic.

US has provided $75 USD Billion in aid to Ukraine through 09-30-2023 – which is showing on several sources, including:

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Is there a source for the quarter of a trillion ?

Poland Warns Russia Could Attack NATO Within 3 Years

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New Aid Pledges To Ukraine From The West Has Collapsed

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US Senate Republicans Block $105 USD Billion Ukraine, Israel, And Taiwan Military Aid Bill Over Border Dispute

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Armand

The thread that runs through so much of this is the description of a conspiracy of dunces that is said to be running everything and has never made a correct decision about dozens of issues in years. Yet they are simultaneously brilliant in undermining western civilization as we know it through their devious machinations.

Let's assume it's all exactly the case. I still want the money released to both countries ASAP. It won't do any good to sit around and b@#$h. If we back off on these commitments we are finished. Not just Ukraine…

This is not Afghanistan. This is a major land war with the Russian army, our long time foe. Yea, there is gonna be some more shame if we turn tail. NATO, China, Putin, Iran, NK. I think they will notice. It will matter.

There will likely be a settlement in Ukraine. But Putin must not win. His goal was the whole thing. He gets a piece and a broken army. China gets a lame pariah ally with nukes. The USA is out a lot of money and artillery shells. Ukraine is left in ruins, too many dead, but not beaten. Taiwan will survive because we are China's deterrent. But only if Putin does not take Ukraine.

"winning" was always going to look like Ukraine survives without being annexed by Russia, and some kind of land-swap for peace deal.

At this point as I said that may be the final outcome.

Then the US and NATO shifted the goal posts to mean Ukraine gets all of its territory back, Russia is defeated in humiliation and the Putin regime collapses. Really?? That was never realistic.

As I said, with all the victories where Ukraine bests the Russians. It looked like they had/have a chance of my #1 above. Along with the Russian incompetence, poor training, troop motivation, etc. But the war is not over yet … So the fat lady still has to sing.

And I highly doubted the Putin regime would collapse. Or even him "die" …

Poland Warns Russia Could Attack NATO Within 3 Years

I think Russia won't be able to recoup all their losses in men and material. In that short amount of time … And I know he understands NATO Art. 5 …

US Senate Republicans Block $105 USD USD Billion Ukraine, Israel, And Taiwan Military Aid Bill Over Border Dispute

I can understand the rub. With 8 million+ illegal aliens, drug runners, sex traffickers, criminals of all types, terrorists, etc. Along with 1.7 got-a-ways. 10,000 just crossed the border today … yes, today.

Gov't sanctioned open borders for the past 3 years has pushed many/most American citizens with this massive invasion to see what a HUGE mistake this was. Many Americans did not support this. And many knew this was a bad idea.

But if the Gov't does not do something to stop/control this invasion, it may be hard to get our allies the things they need. The Gov't is supported by a very woke vocal minority who wanted this to happen. None of them volunteered to take any of these illegals into their homes, feed them, provide medical care, etc. AFAIK.

There will likely be a settlement in Ukraine. But Putin must not win. His goal was the whole thing. He gets a piece and a broken army. China gets a lame pariah ally with nukes. The USA is out a lot of money and artillery shells. Ukraine is left in ruins, too many dead, but not beaten.

That would be the most logical outcome based on current events. But Putin may still claim "victory" at least for local consumption.

Then what will be Putin's next move ?

He needs some time to rebuild. Years, maybe. He has a much larger western border to defend. He has an Arctic military agenda. The navy is not in good shape. Not sure how good the newest subs are yet. His army officers need to go to remedial war college. The army needs a major resupply. Maybe he will fall out a window in the meantime.

You are next.

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"Tucker Carlson did not provide the full context of the statement"

As Legion would say, nuff said.