"Severodonetsk Cauldron" Topic

It's still pretty confusing (which describes most media reports from this war), but it appears that there are now 5-8,000 Ukrainian troops cut off in Severodonetsk and maybe up to 16,000 about to be cut off in the surrounding area. There are reports the Russians and their allies broke through today in several places in the Donbas region. Definitely hard to nail down the accuracy of the reports, but is this why the U.S. Secretary of Defense was asking for a cease fire the other day? Did they see this coming? Lots of questions, but the answer are all over the place.

It looks like the Russians made progress around Poposna. But they would have needed to take 40km in a day to cut off Sieverodonetsk.

"Severodonetsk was assaulted from four sides at once, but the enemy was repelled and retreated to previous positions," Zelensky this morning 21/5/22.
Sounds like it might be a bit surrounded.

There are several small environments being prepared at once. If I were in the place of the Ukrainian command, then I would withdraw the troops from the emerging "bags" (I note that the most experienced Ukrainian troops are there), or counterattack the "sprout" of the Russian troops that had broken through, trying to cut them off.
But it seems that to do the second – there is no strength, and to do the first – the morale of the troops will collapse (immediately after the surrender of "Azov" and co in Mariupol).

liveuamap.com/ru

Even the BBC are mentioning that the 'Russia is making advances' here. Which probably means they are preparing people in the UK for more bad news.

Just listening to World At One, BBC Radio 4, and War Correspondent Anthony Lloyd knocked back the presenter's enthusiasm by explaining the trouble Ukraine is in the Donbas. That's a significant change from the 'Ukraine is winning' speeches we've had so far. He said the best interpretation for Ukrainian forces is that the front is 'creaking, badly'.

Looking at the maps there's no denying the Russians are slowly grinding away and taking ground. The descriptions of 'hell' in the Donbas would appear to be accurate.

Clear admissions that Ukraine is taking heavy casualties in the Donbass.
link

Looking at the maps there's no denying the Russians are slowly grinding away and taking ground. The descriptions of 'hell' in the Donbas would appear to be accurate

Yes, and we're watching Russia slowly grind its military into dust. That's the problem with dictators like Putin, they cannot admit they made a mistake and correct course -- to err is an existential threat. And if Russia "wins," it only wins a guerilla war as savage as what it experienced in Afghanistan -- it can barely take Ukraine, it cannot keep it. And there is no profit in it at any level -- the Russian method of indiscriminate mass artillery and airstrikes is leaving a shattered infrastructure it will never rebuild, a trading market it can never replace.

Just like it cannot replace the tens of thousands of lives spent on this bloody futility.

I'm not so sure. Pundits have been saying it's a failure since it started and based on what? We don't know what the plan was, is, or might be.

If Russia takes Donbas, there is an inbuilt Russian speaking majority which voted for Yanukovych, for separating from Ukraine and probably won't support any guerrilla war in their territory.

Crimea was only Ukrainian by Krushchev's whim in 1954 and I don't see that going back.

As for what's left after the war – well, it's war, but people rebuild. Unless we want a perpetual financial and trade war which will do nobody any good.

Crimea was only Ukrainian by Krushchev's whim in 1954 and I don't see that going back.

Pre-USSR, Crimea was populated primarily by Tatars and Ukrainians. The Russian population was largely the result of internal resettlements by the Soviet Union.

I'm not sure about that, the Russian Empire didn't know what a 'Ukrainian' was – 'Little Russian'.

Now they may have been biased, but the 1897 census shows there were 35% Tatar, 33% Russian and 11% Little Russian so maybe not that clear cut.

The Sovs threw out Tatars and Greeks and Bulgarians, and maybe some Ukrainians but the Crimean Ukrainian population probably grew overall under the USSR, and certainly post '91.

I don't think that's going to get it back from Russia now.

Clear admissions that Ukraine is taking heavy casualties in the Donbass.

The quote is given as "Today, from 50 to 100 people could be killed here in the most complicated area, in the east of our country," Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday evening.

This includes, and may be mostly, civilians. "appearing to be a reference to fatalities in combat" is a speculation by the reporter.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

Severodonetsk was taken by Russian troops without a fight. The Ukrainian army left positions that had been preparing for defense for 7 years, trying to avoid encirclement.

Since the time of the Mongol invasion, the Crimean Khanate, a vassal of the Ottoman Empire, has been on the territory of Crimea. The vast majority of its population were Crimean Tatars. Russia conquered Crimea in 1783 as a result of another Russo-Turkish war, Crimea became part of Russia and became the Russian province of Taurida. The Crimea was populated (the Tatar population was relatively small) by retired Russian soldiers. Naturally, the majority of them were Russians.

As for the guerrilla war in Ukraine… Russia has rich experience in overcoming such resistance. And this is not only repression against dissenters. Look, for example, at the Chechens. Twenty years ago, many of them fought against Russia, including their president Kadyrov.
By the way, he is popular in Russia and many would like to see him as Putin's successor ;-)

I made a mistake, sorry. The city of Svetlodarsk is taken.

If the troops are withdrawn, there will be a moral decline (public opinion was intensively prepared for the offensive), and if the troops are not withdrawn … Ukraine will lose a significant part of its best troops.

I made a mistake, sorry. The city of Svetlodarsk is taken.

The retreat from Svitlodarsk, NE of Horlivka, is shown on scribblemaps.com. It is not in the "Severodonetsk Cauldron".

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

I have heard speculation that the Ukrainians are hoping to bring up enough new heavy equipment in time to turn the tide. Note the Russians have targeted a lot of transport infrastructure over the last 48 hours.

If I forget the password from my account again, Cuprum3 will appear ;-)