"Russia Has Already Lost The Ukraine War" Topic

"Russia Has Already Lost the War, even if it Wins in Donbas – The war in Ukraine grinds on. Now in its ninth week, the war has moved to Donbas, in Eastern Ukraine. We are hearing less out of that region than we heard from the fighting around Kyiv before. This is likely because the war is more kinetic and open than the ambush-style, shoot-and-scoot engagements of the early weeks.

It seems likely there will be more large collisions of massed formations. Ukrainian casualties are likely higher than before. Insofar as much of our war video footage on social media comes from the Ukrainians, we are probably seeing less because the war has become harder for them. The terrain of Donbas advantages the Russians…"

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Armand

Sums it up rather well.

I think you need to careful about interpreting the drop off in footage. Basically footage peaked when there were large numbers of territorials with their smart phones right on the frontline. I don't think there has ever been that much spontaneous footage out of the east. Most of it has been curated and release for propaganda purposes for want of a better expression. Basically I don't think Ukrainian regulars are quite as snap happy with good reason.

The UK defence intelligence releases are suggesting that the Ukrainians are engaged in a fighting withdrawal. Trading space for keeping their units as intact as possible.

The simple reason why there is a dropoff in videos is because there is a serious dropoff in Russian activity. It's about three days now that on liveuamap.com there's not a lot going on other than reports of shelling. It's the Ukranians who are slowly pushing back the Russians north of Kharkiv…

Pretty much Putin/Russia has lost … they just don't know how to get out of this disaster to save face, etc. With the US finally sending many C-17s, etc. loaded with weapons of all types. Landing it Poland. As well as many NATO members doing the same.

This massive support for Ukraine should have happened as soon as Putin started to mass along the border months before the invasion. That alone may have deterred him. But if not, with all the deadly weapons coming from NATO/the US I doubt the Russians would have got as far as they did. Which was not very far and have lost much of the terrain them "captured" …

My fear is that Putin, having taken another slice of Ukraine, will stop and solidify what he holds and then wait for a better time at a later date to resume the war.

Grattan, do you think the Ukrainians would allow Russia to take another slice? It seems to me they are not going to concede any more territory.

It's going to have to be a very later date if you ask me. They've lost 100's of military vehicles, in the order of 40,000 total killed, wounded or captured, lost a lot of other military equipment and probably chewed through all their reserves of certain munitions.

The Russian defence industry has tried to make itself more self-sufficient but isn't fully. Is not a volume producer at the moment. The only way sanctions are going away immediately is if Putin basically walks every single solider out of sovereign Ukrainian territory while handing back the breakaway republics and Crimea, and cooperating with the ICC. IE not going to happen. At this point the Russian army isn't probably going to fit for much within the decade and probably closer to two in the teeth of sanctions. And that's before you get into any complications due to internal problems or regional instability of the kind that nuclear threats won't make go away.

Also if Putin pauses that long the Ukrainian military he's facing will probably be rocking Western standard equipment and levels of training. Its senior officers will probably be veterans of this war. Ukraine itself might also be an EU member that point, may or may not have any military significance, but will be of economic significance.

There are rumors Putin is taking direct charge of the war now.

Bill wrote "There are rumors Putin is taking direct charge of the war now."

I seem to remember that the Czar did that in World War One….

Putin 'might' do a 'better' job… but do NOT think Russian Military will be 'Happy'.
But, then… Hitler 'Took Charge'… and… Best thing for Putin is 9mm..

Glup!…

Armand

Thought day 1 Ukraine had to hold to win.

Perhaps. stangely. on a Military Forum… I Hate War… not in itself… it will always happen… and sometimes SHOULD.
What chews me up… is the effects… on Mothers, Wives, Sisters, Daughters… even pets. Think Many will feel same.
If YOU FEEL this… not alone.

+1 Heedless

+1 Heedless

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Any one care to read between the lines? I find it odd he had no chemo…

1. He was a dead man walking and wanted to go out as a great leader of Russia?

2. There was a coup and Putin will conveniently die on the operating table. The delay in announcement is so the power succession can be handled quickly and quietly behind closed doors?

TMP your collective thoughts?

An operation on a 69-year-old certainly presents risks.

Surgical removal of cancer is preferable to chemotherapy because the probability of survival is higher. Not all cancers are amenable to surgery, or amenable at all stages.

He's certainly going to leave a legacy but its not the one he was aiming for.

OSCS74,

I think they already have. they completely hold the two break off regions which they did not before the war and they have pushed out of Crimea to take more land. These are the slices I was speaking about. Russia currently hold more of Ukraine now then it did at the start of the war.

Grattan54 is correct. I think Putin had three plans for winning.
1. Capture the capital, make the president leave, and put his own guy in charge, or even just take over the whole country and absorb it into Russia.
2. Capture vast amounts of Ukraine and absorb them into Russia.
3. Minimum victory, capture Donbas and a large land bridge to Crimea and declare that as a win. Incorporate all that territory into Russia. Try again in a few years.

I think the best thing for the West to do is encourage Ukraine to take back all their lost territory including Crimea and Donbas no matter how long it takes. Bleed the Russian military dry trying to hold it.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

Rather assumes he has cancer or whatever else people seem to think he may have. Neither chemo or radiotherapy these days are necessarily incapacitating.

Its fair to say that Putin misjudged bigtime. Whether or not that's because he feels 'the hand of destiny' or weight mortality, was fed inaccurate information, is loosing his faculties or just woefully underestimated Western politicians may well be permanent point of debate among historians. And that's before we get to the short-comings of the Russian Army.

Clearly Plan 1 is out the question, the problem being with Plan 3, where he currently is, that it lacks leverage to force the Ukrainians to accept terms. Behind that is an increasingly important sub-text question for Putin which is 'how do get out this in a way that doesn't involve me and some piano wire?' Also bear in mind this isn't the USSR, Putin is a one-man band, there no Central Committee, with rivals eying up the dead mans shoes, that will perpetuate the system when he's gone, but once he's gone there are no guarantees his system will survive.

The bloke Putin is supposed to be handing the reins to, Patrushev, might be just as bad. Hell, he might be even worse than Putin!.

Whomever directs the Russian effort is still hindered by an inept war machine.

The Russians & Putin must be weakened to the point that they can't do this sort of thing again. US/NATO/etc. supporting the Ukraine will make this happen as the Ukraine is outperforming the Russians on the battlefield.

Putin may not "survive" as the leader of Russia. Too much has been lost by his and his supporters actions.

No one save for those like Putin want to go to war. But at this point the only way to give Ukraine it's freedom again is kill and push the invaders out of their nation.

Too late to do anything but fight the invaders.

Choctaw +1

I agree Putin may get a couple of slices of Ukraine but what he has lost, will taken another generation to put right. And while he made Russia a pariah he now has to worry about China taken a chunk.

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.

Seems to me that while the costs are VERY high, the Russians are "winning" in a number of ways.

Conversely, we can't REALLY say that Ukraine is "winning" even though they are making the war very costly for "the Soviets", errrr, Russians.

A few issues:

Putin is not a "one man show." There are many centers of power in Russia, including the Siloviki, the army, the police and the FSB. Last and probably least are those economic oligarchs not already covered in the previous categories. Putin would have numerous contingencies planned to prevent a coup or assassination (not because the powers of Russia have any issue with the war, but just because it is human nature to take advantage of any opportunity to seize power when presented with the excuse and chance to do so).

Moreover, Putin doesn't decide when his war ends. The US (via their proxy Ukraine) decides when this war ends. And war is good… this is great for the American military industry and even better for US geopolitics. It's bad for normal people, but normal people don't get a vote. Zelensky will not agree to peace until the Pentagon's aims are achieved. Pay attention to the news… right from the start, Western media insisted that this was a "war" and not a "special operation." Now they are parroting the Pentagon's line that the public should "be prepared for a long war." The US will not allow this thing to stop until they are good and ready.

Finally, Russia is not losing, at least not yet. The Pentagon has forecasted that they will lose and that alone is incredibly significant, but I don't see clear signs of the defeat yet from what we the public know. Phase 1 failed because Russia had designed the operation based on bad intelligence. Before the war, Zelensky was an unpopular leader seen as an emblem of the classic Ukrainian state corruption by his own people. He had little international support for that same reason. Prior to the war, national polls indicated that, after a concerted effort by the FSB, Ukrainians were open to the idea of closer ties to Russia and there was more popular ambivalence on the success of the Maydan Revolution and the desire to get closer to Europe. Ukrainians were despised by Poland's popularist political parties as border-jumping undocumented migrant workers (there was talk of building a wall), the Azov battalion was widely discredited in Western media for being neo-nazi football hooligans and a liability preventing closer military ties between Ukraine and the West and the US was just coming off of a painful experience losing Afghanistan and an anti-war, popularist president. Putin wanted total control over an operation that he excusably imagined would involve little fighting so he didn't appoint an overall commander who could then take credit for the easy victory. Putin spread his forces thinly around three fronts, meaning there were fewer attackers in nearly every theater than the defenders. I don't need to explain this on this forum, but you do NOT launch an attack when the defender outnumbers the attackers. This was not meant to be a normal military campaign. Phase 1 was a failure because the intelligence was bad. Putin jailed an enormous number of FSB agents, trumping up probably largely phony claims that they hadn't done their job and had used funds earmarked for destabilizing Ukraine years ahead of this invasion and embezzled the money for themselves. Some skimming off the top is the rule in Russia, but I am sure Putin's wrath outreached the actual grift by the FSB. Still, the FSB do legitimately deserve to be the scapegoat (and putting aside the work of the CIA in Ukraine since 2014, Vlad "only give me good news" Putin also deserves personal blame, ultimately).

Anyway, the war is changing into a traditional campaign. The Russian Army has taken heavy losses, but I'm not sure that really matters: it's designed to do that. The Russian economy has taken a big hit, but Putin has wagered that his restructuring of the core economic institutions after 2014 will let him outlast sanctions. I'm betting he's right. It will be bad for the Russian people eventually, but the military can and will survive the sanctions. If the military can survive casualties and parts shortages, then Russia can at least in theory win this war (again, based on what we the public know). They can always escalate things by instituting a mass conscription (which is already allowed under Russian law) and/or by using tactical nukes (both to make breakthroughs and also "send a message" that will likely give the West pause, as they cannot do the same). In fact, everything right now is incentivizing the latter… there are more pros than cons for Russia to do it. The mass conscription is a little more tricky… most of the conscripts are coming from poor, rural Russia, as it is easier to dodge a mustering call in the cities (where Russians are wealthier and better connected) but still a mass conscription, even rolled out gradually, would eventually be unpopular. That said, the Russian police are also one of those "core institutions" that Putin has designed his wartime economy to protect.

Some good points … well thought out. But I am going to go with the Pentagon this time – Russian will lose. IMO based on all I see the Russians are losing – high losses, their inability to fight effectively using combine arms, poorly trained, motivated and lead conscripts, as well as weak log support. Plus from of beginning of the invasion until currently the Russians have lost real estate they took earlier.

So it is arguable that the Russians are not losing … but IMO they certainly not winning.

So we will have to wait and see. In the meantime the US/NATO/etc. give the Ukrainians all the weapons support they want. As the Sef Def said, our goal is to weaken Russian so they can't do this again.

Plus Putin's fear of NATO, only had gotten worse with the high possibility of Sweden & Finland joining. The Russians and Putin don't get it. Many former WP joined NATO as they don't want to come under Russia's boot again. And now the Swedes & Finns wanting to join NATO. As they are concerned too with an attack from Russia.

In the big picture, at least, it seems Russia is losing … With NATO on many of its borders. To defended against Russian aggression.

To free sovereign nations that may have been under Russian control at one time are not longer. And will not let it happen again being part of NATO.

"Conversely, we can't REALLY say that Ukraine is "winning" even though they are making the war very costly for "the Soviets", errrr, Russians."

As long as there is Ukraine, Ukrainians have won. A war of attrition is horrific for them but it but it means the war is lost for the Russians.

Putin's cronies and the oligarchs are all old KGB people, they will stop the war at some point.

Putin is not a "one man show." There are many centers of power in Russia

I wasn't being overly literal with that phrase only trying to say that there is no clear political continuity beyond Putin. Even the Kim's have the next 'leader' apparent or at least a small pool of potential claimants.

I also know those centres of power exist, but my limited understanding is that exist because they are needed and that to some extent they have been engineered by Putin to perpetuate his control.

I still conclude that Russia may yet gain some limited success but the costs are likely to make the description Pyrrhic a stretch. Even now Russia seems to burning geopolitical capitol for zero gain by clinging to its fantasy narrative.

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How NATO Could Strike Back If Putin Uses Tactical Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine

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Armand

As long as there is Ukraine, Ukrainians have won. A war of attrition is horrific for them but it but it means the war is lost for the Russians.

Agreed … and Putin's Russia is becoming a pariah to much of the Free World. Not sure if Putin & his supporters care … at least for now.

And yes, Putin is not alone, he has a lot of supporters in the gov't, military, etc. So IMO overall Russia's hands are very dirty. On many, many things …

How NATO Could Strike Back If Putin Uses Tactical Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine

That was probably an OPLAN already in existence. But like many OPLANs it may have to be modified for the current situation. If Putin uses any WMDs … he/Russia will be in a worse situation than they find themselves now.

As the article points out, and I have said before. The US[and some of NATO] can use PGMs, etc. With conventional HE, etc. warheads. From air, naval, etc. assets. Again as I have said before. The US can turn targets on the planet into the dark side of the moon. Without using nukes … I'm sure Putin, et al. know that. 🌑

How NATO Could Strike Back If Putin Uses Tactical Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine

For those who are still waiting for their archive software to strip the ad-wall and cookies from that article, I can sum it up for you: the author is suggesting that if Russia attacks Ukraine with low-yield nuclear weapons, that NATO should directly attack Russia with PGMs. Basically, he is advocating for a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, a possibility which has already been disavowed by NATO sources and is in any case well beyond the prerogative of NATO.

A useful antidote to all the the tabloid stuff about nukes.

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Very factual and doesn't speculate on issues like whether or not Putin has sufficiently few oars in the water at the moment to sling the doctrine out the window.

A lot of folks say Putin is a gambler (He depending on terrifying west.) If he was to use nukes, then that would end this and him.

Basically, he is advocating for a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, a possibility which has already been disavowed by NATO sources and is in any case well beyond the prerogative of NATO.

Yes all you say is accurate, AKAIK. However, as I said there is most likely an OPLAN at the Pentagon, etc., for this contingency. And many others.

I don't advocate it. But it is an option, and as I said, our PGMs, etc. are very accurate and can do a lot of damage. As I said Putin knows all of this. But we should not take this off the table, even if we don't have to use this option. Hopefully we won't … But Putin does not know that ?

But if Putin uses Tac Nukes … that will change the situation. Escalate to deescalate is the Russian tactic. So he/they may think that would be the option that the may turn to.

With all the fallout going into NATO nations, that could be interpreted as a de facto attack on NATO.

Again hopefully nukes will never be used there … or anywhere else.

Bodies of Russian soldiers found laying in "Z" pattern in Ukraine

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Armand

A little psyops … Like US troops would put "death cards" on dead VC/NVA in Vietnam … They just killed in a firefight, etc. link

NBC Weapons: The Battle Of Chernobyl- Lost In The Red Forest

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Armand

NBC wpns = WMDs … Putin is playing with the idea of using them. He does not get it … he keeps digging a deeper hole, for him & Russia.

I don't doubt they will get the job done …

Ukraine pushes back Russian troops in counter-offensive near Kharkiv

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Armand

This trend will continue … with the Ukraine attriting the Russians, turning Putin's war into a quagmire.

Why Is Russia Losing So Much Military Equipment In Ukraine?

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As it happened: Ukraine aiming to arm a million people

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Truck-Mounted Brimstone Missile Launcher Emerges In Ukraine

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Armand

Ukraine intercepts call from Russian soldier saying his commander shot himself to get out of the war

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Armand

Does not bode well for the Russians …

(smile)

Armand

The Tide Is Turning Toward Russia

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Armand

The Tide Is Turning Toward Russia
"But if you know anything about Russian military history, you know this early setback is nothing new. For more than a century its army has made a habit of failing early before it regroups, recenters around its strength—overwhelming firepower—and gradually (and brutally) exerts its will. And that's exactly what seems to be happening now. "

One problem with this guy's history is that Russia has not been a nation for "more than a century". Russia and Ukraine share the same USSR history.

I have also made a google chart of ukraine/russia

I think people who are interested now know what "ukraine" is and don't need to google it anymore.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers