"Ukrainians holding on Donbas Front So Far" Topic

…Russia's large-scale offensive to seize the Donbas region was under way on Tuesday when troops overran the city of Kreminna in eastern Ukraine and began advancing towards the strategic Ukrainian military hub of Kramatorsk…

The Guardian: link

This is the Crunch time… Eastern areas were always the 'ostensible' objective. But… watch for attacks elsewhere.
Russians have massive Armour, Arty, Air and, if dubious, Inf superiority plus short supply line . Ukraine has little advantage in equal but less equipment… long supply line and limited Air at extended range. Undoubted commitment.
Think Ukraine will do well… BUT…

I do think that the Ukrainians are having problems getting weapons and reinforcements into that area. The Russians have been hitting all of the oil and gas storage depots around the country and there's rumors of shortages everywhere. The other night they tried to get a transport full of Western arms into the country by coming in near Odessa, but it was shot down. Usually, they would just come across the Polish border and then moved across country, but they obviously were trying to do something a bit faster.

I think the Ukrainians will continue to fight effectively for the many reasons we have talked about before. And I believe with the weapons & equipment coming in from the US[albeit IMO late to the game in numbers needed], NATO, etc. They will be able to go on a major offensive(s). If the Russian's combat abilities continue to be marginal, and I believe they will. If the Ukrainians go down fighting costing the Russians huge losses. Which they may or may not be able to absorb, etc.

But I'm still not writing the Ukrainians off …

NATO should be doing everything in their power to continue to supply whatever they can to Ukraine. The more Ukraine is able to soften down the Russians, inflict heavy casualties and losses, will benefit NATO in the long run. Unfortunately this is at the expense of the Ukrainian people and military. It sickens me because I have friends there, but if the only thing we are willing to do is give arms and equipment, keep it flowing.

Yes, keep those supplies coming. Gives the Ukrainians a fighting chance. No matter what the outcome. Putin's Army will be able to do little for a very long time.

Again, that is what NATO was for.

As of this morning the UK MOD was more or less saying that Russian army was still having all the same problems it had during the initial offensive.

link

Yesterday liveuamap.com showed a lot of ground attacks in the Donbass and where you would expect the southern pincer to start from. But so far today nothing when it comes to ground attacks.
Was this supposed to be the start of the offensive and has it failed already? I see no useful reason to launch a bunch of attacks for just one day and then be done with it…

Holding on "so far". Mariupol is lost, I'm wondering if the new Ukraine will be land locked. Odesa can be taken by land eventually. It may well be integral in the settlement that should be happening within the next few weeks, maybe months.

The map is not promising for the Ukrainians. A debate on whether to stand or withdraw from Donbas is going to be resolved in good time. Let's see who's right.

For the record, I suggested the Ukrainians pull back and regroup along the river south of Kyiv. Others have suggested the Ukrainians stand firm and will defeat the hapless Russians.

The record has been set, time will tell who was right.

Ukraine will win this war. Russia might be on the offensive for the moment but they will run out of steam and lose their army. Then Ukraine will mount counter offensives and re take everything lost.

Ukraine will never give up. Russia does not have the skills necessary to fight wars. they are just armed thugs.

Apparently, the Russians added 4 BTG to their forces, bringing it up to 82.
I'm sure I remember that early in the invasion I read that "all 120 BTG have been comitted to the operation" or something like it. I assume that missing third is the northern goup from the Kiev area. How long ago did they retreat again? And it took this long to move 10% of that force? Or get it back into fighting form?
Not looking good for the Russians. Their forces are smaller than at start, facing an enemy that has mobilized their reserves, who now have some combat experience, defending a smaller front.

"1045 bodies of civilians collected in Kyiv region – Andriy Nebytov, chief of Kyiv regional police, tells Ukraine24 TV station. He says 80% of victims were shot dead, all of them were defenceless and posed no threat whatsoever to Russian troops. Excavation of bodies is ongoing"

Senseless killing of innocents.

As of this morning the UK MOD was more or less saying that Russian army was still having all the same problems it had during the initial offensive.

I have heard and read the same. You can't retrain overnight … especially with the overall poor performance, etc., of Putin's military.

Mariupol is lost,

Just heard another report saying the Ukrainian forces, including a unit of their Marines are holding sectors in Mariupol. The Russians again asked them to surrender or else. Looks like the Russians know their losses will be major. A poorly trained, motivated, supplied and lead Russian Army, in MOUT with local forces. Based on my training & experience from my past plus study of military history, etc. My estimate the Russians will not take Mariupol, anytime soon if ever and will take huge losses if they continue to try.

Whatever happens Putin, his toady cronies and the Russian people must not wake up after this is over with smiles on their faces. Life for them must never be the same. They need to be ostracized and receive the North Korea treatment.

We should rush all kinds of equipment to them as fast as we can. If Ukraine wins this, it might kill any delusions of grandeur Russia and China have for a generation.

Dragon +1

Mariupol is just 'Hold Outs'… Very Courageous, but lost.
West must keep up supplies to Ukraine… but WE ain't got that much stuff!
Last decades procurement have been concentrated on 'patrol vehicles' or stupidly expensive 'special forces' equipment or ridiculous ships. Yeah, good… but at expense of 'Front Line', 'old style' combat equipment.
Ukraine will appreciate ANYTHING they can get…even pick up trucks… BUT will need Food, Fuel and Ammo… and supply lines are not good.
Putin's Russia… all been said before. We've BEEN there 70s/80s… back again.
Putin is a very ' Loose Cannon''. WW3 very possible.

Russia's War For The Donbas Begins: What Happens If Putin Can't Win?

link

Armand

@Tango01 Very interesting question? You provided a link which I started to read. Stopped after a few sentences when they said "After its humiliating defeat around Kyiv, this is likely Russia's last chance to fight a war of maneuver". This is wrong information. The Russian pull back from Kiev was negotiated between Putin and Ukrainian officials.

There are a lot of underlying objectives at play here. I don't think Putin wants to level Kiev or most of Ukraine. He could have done so already very easily. Note there are is a strong Orthodox religion present, along with a lot of history.

We can get into the weeds of Globalism vs Nationalism, Western culture vs Eastern culture. Poland and Hungary were aligned before but not now.

My thought is Putin is going to see this through, no matter what it takes to achieve victory. Victory is misrepresented as most here think he's trying to recreate the Soviet Union and occupy all of Ukraine.

Alternatively, Globalists will feel threatened and Neocons will push for more involvement. Watch for any false flags specifically a chemical or biological attack which will attempt to get NATO engaged. Then we can start making amends to our creator.

Mariupol officials said today they found a mass grave where Russian forces were burying bodies. They said it was an attempt to hide evidence of war crimes. Images from @Maxar appears to show around 200 new graves were dug between March 23 and April 3" News Live

The Russian pull back from Kiev was negotiated between Putin and Ukrainian officials.

Is that what Russia is being told? Bwah, hah, hah, hah. It withdrew having taken significant loses. Most anyone would consider that a defeat.

He could have done so already very easily.

No, the Russian army got hammered in a badly planned, ineptly executed and supported attempt at a coup de main against Kyiv. The road to Kyiv was littered with wrecks and the largest proportion weren't Ukrainian.

The Russian army is now a by-word for senseless destruction and incompetence in equal measures. If it wasn't for the nukes I'd reasonably suggest that the Poles, and may be the rest of NATO, would have waded in on the side of Ukraine and would now be rounding Russia soldiers up like the Coalition did with the Iraqi army.

To paraphrase they are inadequately and negligently trained and led bullet-catchers sent to fight another mans war because they don't know any better. But once this is over if anyone puts a bullet through the back of Putin's head I'd give good odds on them being a Ukraine Invasion veteran!

Agree…

Armand

The lack of news has been the most surprising thing over the last few days.

I've seen videos from the Russians conducting night operations and some from Ukraine with the usual Stugna hits and pounding of Russian convoys.

Neither side is giving anything away as to ground gains and losses so I assume it's a costly slog at the moment.

liveuamap.com is showing a lot more shellings than "usual" on what I consider to be the southern pincer start line…
Going to keep an eye on how it develops…

ROU & Bandolier +1 …

Mariupol is still contested AKAIK … Need more real intel. Maybe wishful thinking on my part. I am estimating Russian losses of men and equipment is very high. But we will see …

"1,084 bodied of civilians have already been found in the Kyiv Oblast. Andriy Nebytov, regional police chief, says 50-75% of these people killed with small arms. 300+ bodies have not yet been identified"

Last Stand of the Mariupol Marines

link

Armand

I hope that report is incorrect … But based on what we know it is certainly plausible.

Sadly true…

Armand

That report is dated 13th April. I think the marines lasted longer than that ?

Last report I heard the Russians are shelling and assaulting Ukrainian positions in and near the steel factory. It ain't over yet AFAIK.

Suggest Putin & his staff study the battle of Stalingrad – the Tractor Factory.

There are still marines and Azov boys holding the line.

A attack on the steel plant will be very expensive for Russia, I would guess it will make Verdun/fort Vaux look like childs play.

The orcs will never be able to defeat them.

That report is dated 13th April. I think the marines lasted longer than that ?

Seemingly a block of around 1000 marines surrendered at that point which included a joint Ukrainian-UK national (whom our stupid Government and Opposition nearly managed to cast as an illegal combatant on Putin's behalf). Leaving the remaining 1000 who are no in the steel works. I don't know whether this was because they were isolated by the Russian thrusts into the city and were out of supplies or if it was calculated in order to give the remainder more supplies to hold out with.