"Finland And Sweden Could Join NATO As Early As This Summer" Topic

Yes, I wargamed and studied about Russia invading Finland in '39 and later in '41.

Soviet Union did not invade Finland in 1941, it was the other way around, with the Finns wanting to re-conquer the land lost in Winter War.

DOH ! My badd … Have to revisit those wars … I fought a strategic game of the '39-'40 war. Then tactical battles during the Continuation War '41 … IIRC …

Sweden And Finland Say They Have Received US Security Assurances If They Apply To Join NATO

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Armand

As I said I saw the Finn's & Swede's Ambassadors to the US[IIRC] pretty much saying they will join NATO.

IMO continuing to expand NATO in it's original mission -Protect Europe from the threat of Russia.

The Baltic States Need Advanced NATO Weapons to Compensate for Their Geographical Disadvantages

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Armand

NATO Troops + weapons is the plan.

WHAT WOULD FINLAND BRING TO THE TABLE FOR NATO?

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Armand

Finland Joining NATO Is A Game Changer (And Russia's Fault)

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Armand

Of course it's Russia's fault. Just as many of the former WP joined NATO, Finland & Sweden don't want to risk being under Russia's boot. In the case of the former WP, they don't want to be under Russia's control again.

The fact that Finland has an 800 mile border with Russia. Will give Putin/Russia fits. Trying to guard that border, along with Poland, etc.

As the Finn Ambassador said in an interview with the media. Putin needs to look in the mirror for who to blame.

Turkey's Erdogan Digging In On Rejecting Admitting Sweden And Finland To NATO

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Russia Test-Fires Its Latest Hypersonic Zircon Missile Near Finland And Sweden

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Armand

what russian forces are currently on finish border?

Some info here….

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Armand

Finland does not seem upset with this. Has Russia moved a few units along that border to threaten Finland or meant to intimidate ? Or is Putin just saber rattling for local consumption ?

Has Russia moved a few units along that border to threaten Finland or meant to intimidate?

Actually, the Russian military has not moved any significant number of units close to the Finnish border, but apparently rather the opposite – units from the area have been moved to Ukraine, leaving the garrisons there with less manpower than they had a year or so ago.

Russian leadership has stated that their intent is to establish in near future 12 new military units along the western border of the country. However, finding the manpower to fill those units might be an issue – with the losses taking place in Ukraine, it will already be a while (after the end of the hostilities) until they will get the existing units back to full strength.

On another note, this week four NATO warships (a French frigate, a German frigate and two US Navy craft) currently sailing in the Baltic Sea are making peaceful naval visits to Helsinki. While many such visits have taken place previously, it is not common to see so many over such a short period of time.

what russian forces are currently on finish border?

Last week, the Finnish public broadcasting corporation (Yle) published a long article about the current status of Russian military bases in the vicinity of Finland. While this article is in Finnish, the map of military bases and the satellite imagery of them should be pretty much clear to everyone. I'll try to provide a summary of the main points below, but here is the full article:

yle.fi/uutiset/3-12434544

Please notice that not covered by the article are the military bases in the Murmansk area. These include the Northern Fleet (which would have a long way to sail to Finland, though would be able to launch cruise missiles to Lapland), as well as naval infantry and motorised infantry brigades that might be more concerned about the Norwegian border.

The arctic infantry brigade in Alakurtti (not sure what the place is called in Russian) was established in 2014, and is rather small for a brigade at currently estimated manpower of 2000. However, it is not known to have send any men to Ukraine, and the unit is intended to be equipped and trained for fighting in the arctic conditions. Though close to the Finnish border, there are no roads leading to the border in this area, and the terrain in between may be a bit challenging to move through with vehicles.

Kamenka houses a motorised infantry brigade, though part of it is apparently currently deployed in Ukraine.

Luga military base hosts an infantry brigade that has suffered significant losses while deployed to Ukraine, as well as a missile brigade armed with Iskander missiles that could be able to reach pretty much anywhere in southern Finland.

Petroskoi military base hosts a depot that has enough equipment for a whole motorised rifle brigade. These are left over from units that were disbanded in the 1990's. The close by Besovets air base houses a fighter regiment of around 60 aircraft.

Pushkin air base houses part of a helicopter regiment, with 40 helicopters located there and another 20 on a smaller base on the Karelian isthmus (between the Baltic Sea and Lake Ladoga).

Pihkova, close to the Estonian border, houses the famous air assault division that took significant losses during the opening days of the conflict in Ukraine. They are also accompanied by an air transport regiment and GRU (military intelligence) special brigade.

Kronstadt naval base, on an island outside St. Petersburg, is the main base of the Baltic fleet.

Yes, I saw the Russians have not moved a lot of forces there. Seem not much has changed. But again, Russia does not as many forces as they did a few months again.

As for the anti-shipping missiles being moved around the Karelian Isthmus on exercises – yawn. It is difficult to do much of a ground invasion with a couple of missile launcher units. And any attempt to intimidate or interfere with civilian shipping in the eastern Gulf of Finland would likely be a bit of a home goal, as it would likely affect rather seriously the shipping that is still heading for St. Petersburg.

In the meanwhile, Finns have more important things to occupy themselves, such as recovering from the recent ice hockey world championship games (always a big event in May, and this time actually held in Finland). This year, the national teams from Belarus and Russia were prevented from participating, though.

the national teams from Belarus and Russia were prevented from participating, though.

IMO that should become the standard not to invite/let their teams play in many sporting evens. At least for the foreseeable future.

Since the winter olympics (where the Russian team lost in the ice hockey finals), the Russian and Belarussian teams have been pretty much restricted from international competitions in most sports.

That said, they are still able to play against each other.

Sweden won´t join anytime soon. Lots of political infighting in Sweden. The politicians do not care for the safety of Sweden, they care about their careers and pensions.

In the center of this absurd situation is a female Kurd communist who cares more about the Kurds in Syria than the country she lives in, gave her refugee and pays her salary.

Turkey Threatens To Delay Swedens and Finlands Entry To Nato By One Year

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Armand

"Russia has the right to defend Russian descendants on Gotland." Such allegations are spread on a Russian television site.

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Funny thing: 7 years ago I wrote here on TMP that Russia always planned to take Gotland.
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See, semi-officials plans of NeoSoviets are (…)
5. Russian Army true goal: march to Kiev to take control of whole Ukraine by creating puppet government.
6. Maybe: Russian Army lands in Gotland (Sweden, not NATO memeber, under the excuse that it were "Sweden fascists" who set the bomb at the Riga Russians meeting) OR Bornholm (Red Army has occupied this island till 1946, so Russians think they have some rights to it) to set there missile outpost interdicting Baltics and to have local population as hostages and bargaining chip (they need to have something to give up in post-conflict negotiations).

Swedens application has stalled completely. It is in political shambles after the socialist party and a communist kurd in the Swedish parliament have entered in a unholy alliance…

Russia's greatest defeat? Finland and Sweden joining NATO and what it means for Europe by Perun, May 21, 2022.

Druzhina
Illustrations of Costume & Soldiers

That is another example of collateral damage of Putin's bid at "Peter the Great"/Nazi hunter. The sooner they join NATO the better. However, the Turks again display that they are not a good NATO member with their "problem" with Sweden. If they were not strategically located between East & West, plus being the 2d largest military in NATO. They'd be of little use. They play this card frequently.

On the other front, once Finland is in NATO Putin has another long NATO border to be concerned about. If he didn't like Poland in NATO on his border. Finland's 800 mile border with Russia will "upset him very much" …

Weapons: Sweden's Most Wanted

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Armand

ERDOĞAN continues to show he has more in common with leaders to the East then West.

Why is Lithuania risking Russia's wrath over Kaliningrad?

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Armand

Not sure what Putin is in a position to do other than talk tough? Even if Lithuania wasn't a NATO a member and was nominally neutral I doubt they'd be keen on allowing sanctioned goods to transit for fear of secondary sanctions. There's been a bit if chat about Russia taking the land corridor to Kaliningrad I'm not sure what with though….

NATO Secretary General Says A Deal With Turkey To Admit Sweden And Finland Has Been Reached

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Armand

With Turkey (Türkiye) now in favour, Sweden and Finland are likely to become observer members of NATO around next Tuesday. However, full membership requires parlimentary ratification in all of the member countries. In many of them, the process may be rather swift, though there are some concerns that Turkey (Türkiye) might be not be too fast on that front, depending on how the relationships between in and Finland/Sweden will develop in the near future.

On other news, Putin has stated that the NATO membership of Finland and Sweden is an internal issue of the countries in question. Medvedev, however, has been making a bit harsher comments. Also, apparently some Russian media personalities have been making some harsh comments about the Turkish leadership for eventually yeilding in to accepting new members.

US to send more troops to NATO nations … just like the in first Cold War.

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Just heard on the news Bulgaria may not go along with the Sweds & Finns joining NATO. Bulgaria get 90% of its oil from Russia. So there is the rub …

Sweden And Finland Are Joining NATO: A Good Move For The Alliance?

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Armand

Sweden and Finland is not home quite yet. Sweden and Finland (to a lesser degreee) have signed some kind of understanding to combat terrorism, specifically Kurdish terrorism. But the details is not specified. So now Turkey can claim that Sweden must fulfill its obligations according to the signed understanding if Turkey is to accept Sweden as a full member.

And this will not sit well with the Swedish socialists (which are staunch kurd supporters) or the large Kurdish minority in Sweden.

Sweden have goofed quite bad actually…

Finland's 800 mile border with Russia and Sweden being next to Finland are very good reasons for them to join NATO. Along with NATO's Article 5 …

Just heard on the news Bulgaria may not go along with the Sweds & Finns joining NATO.

I have to say that I haven't heard of any such news.

However, from what I have seen in the news earlier this year, the Bulgarians tend to have rather divided opinions when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine. Traditionally, the country has had rather good relationships with Russia, dating back to the late 19th century, and part of the population is still pro-Russian even under the present conditions. However, there is also a rather large part of the population which is not at all fond of the present Russian policies.

Well I heard it yesterday … have not heard anything since … I will keep my ears open. But it may be old news and changed by now.

After the weekends membership invitation, the actual paperwork got signed today in the NATO Brussels HQ by the involved parties. This means that Finland and Sweden are now observer members, and the ratification procedure leading to full membership can start in national parliaments.

First to ratify the new memberships was Denmark, mere hours after the signing of the treaties, followed by Canada. Also Estonia and Norway are expected to ratify the memberships in very near future, while for some countries the procedure will take months.

NATO Signs Accession Protocol For Finland, Sweden

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Armand

First to ratify the new memberships was Denmark, mere hours after the signing of the treaties, followed by Canada. Also Estonia and Norway are expected to ratify the memberships in very near future, while for some countries the procedure will take months.

As an update, so far 12 out of 30 NATO member countries have ratified the memberships of Finland and Sweden.

These include (in time order): Denmark, Canada, Norway, Iceland, Estonia, UK, Germany, Albania, Poland, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Bulgaria.

As for the other 18 countries, it may take a while for all of them to ratify the new members. Turkey (Türkiye) might end up being amongst the last ones. As for United States, one estimate is that the legislative bodies there would make their decision during August.

And during the last week, five more countries have ratified the new members: Latvia, Slovenia, Croatia, Lithuania and Romania.

In the United States, the subject seems to be currently in progress, with the approval of the senate still pending.

I early August, United States ratified the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO.

Current members still pending on ratification: Portugal, Czech, Slovakia, Greece, Spain, Hungary and Turkey (Türkiye).

The sooner the better that they get ratified. That will just put Putin into a position that he has an 800-mile Finnish border to defend.