"How Long Will the Ukrainian War Last?" Topic

Another month? Six months? A year? Or like Afghanistan?

Occupation if they get the territory they want. Don't think goal ever was complete takeover

Home by Christmas.

Until it ends.

Conventional war--weeks, maybe a couple of months. Then it divides. Maybe Putin gets a partition and the Russophone areas, and things are relatively quiet. Maybe he keeps the whole shooting match. In that case, you won't see guerilla fighting at Afghanistan levels, but there will be a steady series of "incidents." Maybe the Russian garrison can only go to town on pass in large groups. Maybe they can never leave without being locked and loaded. This goes on for years and when Putin leaves the scene his successor cuts a deal. Or if Putin lives long enough, they'll designate someone else the New Hitler, and cut a deal with Putin. Either way, well before that, all the outraged Western people put all the yellow and blue stuff in the attic next to the "Free Tibet" bumper stickers--or cover them with "War is not the Answer" stickers--and go on to their next outrage.

This is theater.

It's pretty much over. The news of it is getting boring and THERE WAS A FIGHT AT THE OSCARS!

Putin will keep going until he gets what he wants, then he will redefine his goals and start again.

Elmo +1

Today Russia announced that it would reduce operations around Kyiv. I think this is tacit acknowledgement that they were utterly failing at taking the city. I would expect a "peace" within the next month.

By the way the reduced operations was the number one story on my news feed so things are still being covered. There are other events that happen in the world though so it shouldn't be surprising when other stories get some coverage.

Lascaris, I refuse to consider anything actors do (or say) off-screen as "news." I'm not even sure it rises to the level of "event."

My news feed keeps running headlines saying "Starlet Runs Around Half-Naked." When it runs a headline saying "Starlet Dresses Modestly"--that one I'll click on. There'd be a story behind it.

I think less than 2 more weeks.

It will certainly slow down soon because the Russians are running out of armoured vehicles and cannon fodder – when the dust settles if the Russkies do decide to occupy the eastern regions I suspect even the places where there are lots of Russian speakers it will be unpleasant for the Russians stationed there

With Ukraine taking a neutral status, dropping their aspirations to NATO membership, Russia getting the out of their territory*, and accepting a potential EU membership of Ukraine, there may be hope for peace.

* Crimea and the Donbass seem to be a different matter, though.

I wonder about the EU and Ukraine. Aren't there very strict economic conditions a country must fulfill in order to join the EU? I doubt Ukraine's economy is in shape right now and probably won't be for years, if ever. But maybe they want assurance that Russia won't block their attempts at joining the EU, at least.

First things first, Bill.
One of the side effects of the current war was the discontinuation of peace negotiations between Russia and Japan to end the Second World War. Once that gets taken care of, then they can move on to a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine.
So, lemme see . . . if accorded the same high priority as peace with Japan, we're looking at 2099.

Grelber
Who sees some hope that the fighting will actually end much sooner than that.

With Ukraine taking a neutral status, dropping their aspirations to NATO membership, Russia getting the Bleeped text out of their territory*, and accepting a potential EU membership of Ukraine, there may be hope for peace.

As I understand it, NATO aspirations is written into the Ukrainian Constitution, so it is not so easy as all that. They will need a nationwide referendum to adjust the constitution. I wonder how many Ukrainians are on an amenable side to dropping NATO membership to end the conflict, given that Russia has already broken one agreement to guarantee Ukrainian sovereignty & territorial integrity?

And really EU membership is IMHO far more dangerous to Russia than NATO membership, though perhaps less so if the Russians can carve off the Donbass & keep Crimea.

Damon.

I'm surprised Putin hasn't been assassinated yet.

Nuke the Kremlin from orbit…it's the only way.

I'm just this side of serious. Russia governments, in any form, are just too much trouble for the rest of the world.

About 2 to 6 weeks. Russia will keep Crimea, Donbass can vote, but most likely eventually go Russian since most of the people there are ethnic Russians. Ukraine will have to become neutral, not a proxy for NATO to satisfy Russian security concerns.

It's up to Nato… who's existence hasn't helped anyone.

It end when the Russian's retire Putin.

"It's up to Nato… who's existence hasn't helped anyone"

You've obviously never met anyone from the Baltic States or Poland.

When every last Russian solder leaves.
When Russian government faces war crimes.
When Russia government pays to repair the Ukraine infrastructure.

A few more months in earnest, though like in the Donbass region, hostilities and the occasional attack(s) may carry on for years if not decades.

"When every last Russian solder leaves.
When Russian government faces war crimes.
When Russia government pays to repair the Ukraine infrastructure".

Sounds great in theory, AND I support that, but we all know that will never happen.

"With Ukraine taking a neutral status, dropping their aspirations to NATO membership, Russia getting the Bleeped text out of their territory*, and accepting a potential EU membership of Ukraine, there may be hope for peace."

That is not peace, that is victory for Putin with all of his objected achieved. He will have a land bridge to Crimea and all the Black Sea coast of Ukraine under his control, as well as Donbas which will vote 98.6 in favor of joining Russia, as these things normally go.

Putin when big and tried to capture all of Ukraine but getting the land bridge to Crimea and Donbas and a neutral Ukraine was enough to consider it a win.

It won't be peace, it will be another pause while Russia rebuilds their forces, the West hurry back to Russia to do business just like they did after Crimea was annexed.

Then if five or ten years from now, Putin will attack again and take what remained of Ukraine despite his assurances of respecting their borders.

"When every last Russian solder leaves.
When Russian government faces war crimes.
When Russia government pays to repair the Ukraine infrastructure". Yes, this is what should happen.

Mike Bunkermeister Creek

"Don't think goal ever was complete takeover"

I do

Some are saying Putin is now going for the Korean model – that is, a West Ukraine and an East Ukraine.

Well its being alleged that no one has told Putin just how badly its going…
link

Who knows? Putins war aims are hard to discern and are an apparently movable feast. I can't see any conceivable scenario where Ukraine 'wins' given the west's determination to fight to the last Ukrainian, but the alternative is nuclear war, which also doesn't seem to be a great option.

Russia has already shifted its position, so I imagine if they get to keep Crimea, the Donbas as republics and some sort of guarantee of neutrality and de nazification, they will back off.

Fair? No. But that is the fate of small nations parked next to big, aggressive ones.

A few more weeks yet though.

Who knows? Putins war aims are hard to discern and are an apparently movable feast.

Well they exist mostly in the head of an aging isolated autocrat and tyrant. And honestly who knows whats going in there. But we've been here before many times…. and it seldom end well for anyone.

Agreed that aging out of touch autocrats are a serious problem. Putin isn't the only one who's been moving goal posts.

At the moment he seems to have moved into 'saving face' mode and trying to engineer something to claim a victory of sorts for domestic consumption. But who knows, perhaps it will be something different next week and we all be building bomb shelters in the basement.

The (probably spoof) leaked complaint from the FSB guy moaning that it was impossible to set any sensible military objectives as they didn't know what the purpose of the war actually was, sums it up quite well.

I suspect Putin hoped Ukraine would collapse quickly having decapitated the government, and when that went south they were a bit stuck. Of course, this is all really Khrushchev's fault for handing Crimea over to Ukraine in the first place:)

I suspect Putin hoped Ukraine would collapse quickly having decapitated the government

Which is probably all the West's fault for lulling Putin into a false sense of security with our rapid initial successes in Afghanistan and Iraq etc…. He's also alleged (tub of salt required) to have obsessed over the fate of Colonel Gaddafi. I assume our follow on failures didn't worry him as Ukraine is really Russian and the West is weak and decadent with an added dollop of cognitive dissonance – especially given the Soviet's Afghan adventure.

The point about the rapid collapse of contemporary regimes in the face of invasion/military pressure is probably a serious one. He will have seen those unfold. I wonders just how much Putin believes his own agit-prop about the weakness of the Ukrainian government. Its seems clear at least that the Russia army planned for an invasion where the opposition were going to be no better than a wet paper bag.

Russia spends roughly $60 USD billion/yr on defense Ukraine $5 USD-6 billion.

It's up to Nato… who's existence hasn't helped anyone.

Disagree … albeit many of the older NATO nations have downsized their militaries severely. The US had troops rotating in and out of Poland for a few years now. IIRC 4-5000(?). But now it is up to 10,000 IIRC ? US/NATO troops have deployed to many of the former WP Nations that border Russia. Including NATO troops have deployed to the Baltic states.

"An attack one is an attack on all". E.g. 9/11 was good example. The US was attacked, NATO forces[and a few others] deployed to take the fight to the jihadis/terrorists. Many were there until the tragic end. E.g. UK, French, Germans, Dutch, etc.

As far as when the war will be over. When someone or some group removes Putin ? Of the Ukrainians are totally defeated, which probably won't happen.

Worrying over Gaddafi is by no means irrational, ROU. Our treatment of him--after he cooperated with WMD destruction and inspections--was of a piece with our broken promises over Western troops in former Warsaw Pact territories. Putin knows US promises are no good, and that's going to make cutting a deal quite a bit harder.

We're paying in lives for "responsibility to protect" and the "Libyan crossfire." So far, the lives are Russian and Ukrainian.

Still waiting for anyone to thank Trump for pressuring NATO countries to up military spending.

I do, and have.

Once again, Trump has been proved right on both spending and the vulnerability of the EU/NATO to Russian energy blackmail.

A pity it had to take a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and war to confirm that though.

Agree with robert and thresher …