"Estimates of huge Russian losses." Topic

Just read a news report that NATO experts are saying that Russia has lost 40,000 men killed, wounded or captured. Now, who knows if this is accurate but if true that would be some 15-20% of its attacking force. Given that at 10% a combat unit starts to be refitted this could be why Russia does not seem to be advancing anywhere.

A Russian news site let slip an official figure of almost 10K in killed, & 16K wounded. So 26K total according to the news site. It was quickly taken down & there are claims of being hacked. Still…that's a lot.

Damon.

40,000 seems high but within the range of possibility. Ukraine is probably inflating losses by claiming 15,000 KIA. Western intel agencies have put it at 7,000-15,000 with 3 times as many wounded and missing. 28,000 total makes a lot more sense to me.

All the same your point about refit at 10% is a good one. My question is, can Russia even resupply and refit on a large scale with supply issues? Seems like they're still making progress in the south but the northern offensive has been stopped. High casualties and low supply are a nasty combo for an attacking force.

Two high level Russians are "missing", and they are NOT generals.

One is believed to have perhaps fled Russia, and the other…….

I imagine the claims are probably 2X – 4X the real numbers, but still, that is pretty substantial.

Clearly, there is a lot of fighting and ambushing that we are not aware of.

The footage of the devastated cities is very horrific when one thinks about all of the possible casualties impacted by that. Reportedly, a lot may be buried alive under the rubble.

The only positive thing from the rubble is, like for the defenders of Monte Cassino in WWII, it gives them a lot of good cover to hide in and behind, making taking the cities even more difficult for the Russians.

Several usually well informed YouTube pages are now putting
killed 10-15k,
WiA at 10-20k,
Captured 500-1000 (may not include those Russians already re-patriated)
Tanks and AFVs 1500 total (400-500 tanks)
Aircraft 100+ (both Helos & Jets)
Artillery, unknown
Ships, 3

Very hard to say what's "accurate". Either way, it's a colossal disaster for Putin.

One Russian soldier whose phone call was 'listened to' said half the men in his unit had frostbite injuries.

Apparently one soldier ran over his own general.

I saw a prediction that some of the Russians near Kyiv may begin surrendering in large numbers.

Saw 10,000 but as been saying a few times propaganda is over the top in this war be careful.

What we know about muscovites losses.

Ukraina says more than 15.000 killed.

Muscovites says 10.000, but they always reduce at least twice.
So we may count about 20.000 killed muscovites, as Ukrainians don't know how many died later in hospitals.

For wounded ones we must simple multiply 20.000 by at least three but better by five.

Add a landing ship…
link

Pratically, if and when this fooly will end, with this rate of losses, russian army would end with a KIA rate worst than Vietnam, the difference being that all these casualties for the US armed forces happened in about 12+ yrs.I can't imagine such a callous way to throw away lives, also for an eastern despot,furthermore all this waste of materials will compromise the future efficiency of the army.

After they were driven out of Mykolaiv the Russians left behind field dressings dated 1978 and Reddit is full of photos of their rations that expired in 2015.

YouTube link

A Russian ration pack is like irony.

Not everybody gets it.

Interesting that we have heard nothing about Ukraine's military losses. I get it that the West is supporting Ukraine and likely don't want those numbers out. Still, you would think there would be some comments, some coverage of this.

What we will never know actually how many losses the Russians really took. Plus with Putin's mobile crematoriums, many KIAs will be listed as MIAs. With the Russian's poor performance overall. It does not surprise me that their losses due to the Ukrainians are high. And probably the Ukraine's losses smaller. But as noted … we have no idea about their losses. But again Russian overall numbers could be telling. But so far that seems to not be a factor, AFAIK …

I don't see Russian troops starving to death even with Russia's poor Log system. Even with expired rations. They are probably "foraging", etc., anyway.

Plus, with the Russian's poor equipment issue to their troops. They may not have proper NBC protection, etc. So if Putin's GEN use Chem and maybe bio, they may be killing some of their own. Which in general it appears their troops are cannon fodder/pawns.

Interesting that we have heard nothing about Ukraine's military losses.

D Brief says:

…Officials seem to have less certainty when it comes to Ukrainian losses, which President Voldymir Zelenskyy put at 1,300 two weeks ago.

Well, we will have to see after this is all over. But again, even then we may not get accurate number. Especially from the Russians.

Sadly, many are dying for a 19th century tyrant with visions of grandeur whose military leaders are incompetent.

Grattan: the disinformation with this war is outstanding. Everyone assumes it's just the Russians doing it, but at this point I have to assume almost everything that comes out of Ukraine is BS. I mean, I get it -- they are fighting for their country, and disinformation is just another tool. It doesn't mean I have to believe the BS.

The Russian mobile crematoriums seem like fake news, to be honest. I mean, the alleged video has been debunked as being from 2015 and not war related. But also, when you think about it, it makes no sense at all. You cannot hide loss estimates from your enemies, who aren't going to buy your tricks. And you cannot hide losses from your own people for any meaningful period of time: MIA or KIA is all the same people back home are going to notice their sons and friends don't come back, fellow soldiers in the unit are going to notice too and get demoralized.

the disinformation with this war is outstanding. Everyone assumes it's just the Russians doing it, but at this point I have to assume almost everything that comes out of Ukraine is BS. I mean, I get it -- they are fighting for their country, and disinformation is just another tool. It doesn't mean I have to believe the BS.

That's the problem with those posts. They are a lot closer to cold war nostalgic wet fantasies than actual military assessments.

Again, a truer intel exists and they don't let it out. You have to analyze the whole situation through postures, political stances and background activity.

The real trigger to negotiations will probably be the destruction (or not) of the Ukrainian army in the east.

If it occurs, US and China will make a joint request at the UN for a cease-fire, and, the peace negotiations will take place in Jerusalem.

Glee at one side's losses is abject, one way or another.

The real trigger to negotiations will probably be the destruction (or not) of the Ukrainian army in the east.

Which is advancing, as of today…

Which is advancing, as of today…

Source? I haven't read about this yet. I am just aware of counter-attacks in the Donbass area.

nice site listing confirmed vehicle losses for both sides.https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Needed a space between the period and the link
link

I heard one comment on Fox news from a general, I think, and he mentioned a 5:1 exchange rate in favor of the Ukrainians, in terms of losses, which he said was "within norms".

Actually, I'd say that is much better than the norm, which I've always heard is about a 3:1 exchange rate in attack vs. defense.

Perhaps though, he is factoring in some of the cities being occupied and razed too, which does raise that factor to 5:1 – 10:1. Given so few major cities have been fought over and captured by the Russians – obliterated by artillery mainly, from the bit I've read, I discount those ratios a bit.

Most of the battles seem to be fought in the suburbs and open countryside.

As long as the Russians continue to fight as they are, as we have discussed before. The Ukraine Forces will continue to inflict high losses on the Russians. Whether 3:1, 5:1 etc. At this point, Ukraine is fighting on its own turf. It appears to me, they are very motivated to protect their homeland. They are primarily doing defensive ops with aggressive patrols, etc. along with ever increasing small offensives.

The Russians have numbers, which IMO is the only thing they can use to defeat Ukraine in the field. But again they are not doing a very good job at it, so far. The Russians know they don't want to go into massive MOUT battles. Their numbers will quickly be absorbed in fighting house to house. Or rubble to rubble …