"Unherd Interview - Who's winning in Ukraine" Topic

This a reasonable interview for the average person. Freddie Sayer interviews Bill Roggio.

YouTube link

I would agree that we should look at the map and not reports from primarily one side. I also agree that one should be careful about assuming what is or isn't in the Russian plan – example, are the Russians trying to encircle Kyiv? Or, are they using that to tie down Ukrainian forces while the war is decided in the south and east? Unlike the Institute for the Study of War, which claims it is an objective, I don't really know – other than a coup de main at the start of the invasion.

While I agree there's definitely bias towards Ukraine and an asymmetrical output of footage showing Russian losses…I also think some analysts are trying too hard to find some unseen Russian plan that's going according to plan.

Russians are winning in some areas (Donbass and southern fronts). There is still potential for an encirclement of Ukraine forces on the Eastern front.

Russians haven't achieved air superiority, there are reports (from Telegram) of heavy losses amongst their senior officer corps and there's confirmed evidence for massive losses.

Ukraine might fall but I don't think there's some Russian plan that is working no matter how hard some analysts try to find it.

There's no way the Russians wanted or expected "a slow grinding advance". Objectives must have be reassessed. The numbers show that the Russians should eventually win. They are biting off small chunks at a high cost. That guy confirms that there's still so much we don't know.

The arms and ammunition manufacturers.

The Russians were expecting to have won this war by now. How long can Russia support this war without foreign assistance buying their oil and gas?