"The "end" of Russian Oil" Topic

Interesting video by geopolitical thinker Peter Zeihan on what the Russian invasion of Ukraine is doing to their oil production capacity. In a word -- no more oil.

*Russia does not have the capacity to build and manage significant oil & gas projects. When Haliburton and company pulled out, they lost that management talent.
*Most Russian oil flows West to a port on the Black Sea, on the Baltic and into pipelines terminating in Germany. All of this is stopping.
*There is no link between their western oil fields and eastern oil fields -- laying that pipe is a $50 USD billion, 10 year project.
*Russian Far-eastern production and distribution to China is also being hammered by the pull-out of Western firms that managed those facilities.

YouTube link

That ole Devil Unexpected Consequences coming around to bite Pootey-poo Putin in de arse. Karma is a beyotch.

I imagine for enough rubles, someone will step in to assist them, legally or not.

I don't get it, the Russian 10 year plans are always so successful. ;)

"Pootey-poo Putin"? Really? There are a lot of buyers of Russian oil, India being one. There is no "end" of Russia selling oil, even though you are rooting for it.

There is no "end" of Russia selling oil, even though you are rooting for it.

You need to look at the logistics of oil production and distribution. Watch the video, it's got some good insights.

Even if India *buys* Russian oil, it can't *get* that Russian oil delivered. That's the point. The Russian oil supply chain has been cut off. The majority of Russia s oil & gas industry is oriented around production and distribution to Europe, not globally.

1. The oil pipeline terminus in St. Petersburg is being boycotted and can only handle small oil tankers that cannot make globe-crossing treks to India and China. China is going to try to sail a fleet of small tankers to the Baltic that will take Russian oil to larger Chinese tankers in international waters -- transfer the oil (how much eco-damage will *that* cause, eh?) to blue water supertankers to sail to China. That's not likely to go off well.

2. The oil pipeline terminus in the Black Sea is shallow water, only small regional tankers can go there -- since it's a warzone all insurance companies have terminated insurance coverage, so Russia is pressing China to cover that. Oh, and Turkey has closed the Bosphorus to most Russian shipping.

3. The oil and gas pipelines going overland transit through Ukraine, Byelorus and Poland before terminating in Germany. Those pipes are getting shut off.

4. In the Far East the Russian oil facilities that ship oil to China are managed by Western companies that have pulled out of Russia. So they have nobody with the competency to run what's there, let alone expand production and shipment to China. Oh, and the infrastructure in the Far East is aimed at exporting to China via overland pipelines, not for global export.

So yeah, Russia has lots of oil that it will be harder and harder to extract and refine, and harder and harder to ship anywhere.

I imagine a lot of it could be transferred by rail, though I don't know how extensive their rail networks are to China, India, or other regions.

"I imagine for enough rubles, someone will step in to assist them, legally or not."

Given current exchange rates, I don't think there are enough rubles in the known universe to do that.

I imagine a lot of it could be transferred by rail, though I don't know how extensive their rail networks are to China, India, or other regions.

Non-existent. To ship by rail to India from Russia you have to cross the deserts of the 'Stans, and then your only choice is to go through Afghanistan and the high mountain passes through the mountain chains into Pakistan, and then to India…and hope that nobody along the way likes rail tankers full of oil.

And China's vision of Belt and Road is supposed to eventually get to European Russia, but it's far far far from being even fraction of the way there. Here's their plan -- tell me what you think!

Zeihan has also pointed out in the past that the oil that China imports from the Middle East travels along one of the longest and most vulnerable supply lines on earth via the Indian Ocean. And there is not enough rail capacity to get significant oil supplies from Russia, another tough journey.

he oil that China imports from the Middle East travels along one of the longest and most vulnerable supply lines on earth via the Indian Ocean

Great point, which is what the US and allies will work to shut down if there's a conflict. China is basically a maritime province nation with a very under-developed interior. Good article on lessons learned from the War against Japan.

To Defeat China in Battle, America Should Study World War II
The U.S. Pacific strategy was to intercept and deny energy resources

link

Russia might think Europe depends on their oil and gas, but it is easier for us to change our imports than for them to change their exports.

I'll bet that once the initial "oh the horror" gets over with US companies will slip right back in. Can't let good $$ go to waste. Depending on how much of a threat PRC sees of the west they may make arrangements to get that oil, yes it will take years to do but they don't look at next week and call it done.

Denmark may close Kattegat and Skagerrak for Russian traffic due to "lack of eco certificates" (needed there). The same with Gibraltar and Suez Canal and Malacca and Behring Strait.

Good luck with from Murmansk (few months per year) around the Africa and around Australasia to China way.

Speaking of Suez canal, Egypt has been in the past importing plenty of grain from Ukraine. It is feared that the loss of this source could lead to increases in food prices and resulting unrest there – so it would be in the interests of the government there to see Ukraine again in peace, able to produce and export grain.